I'm feeling somewhat optimistic

[Angelsjunky]

I know its more than early, but there's something about this team that intrigues me. After Trout there are no clear stars, but the roster includes a bunch of players who could take a step forward this year and be impact players, as well as a group of solid role players that will raise the "floor" of the team so that we won't see huge gaping wounds like we did last year.

 

I really like the catching corps, with Perez, Soto, and perhaps Bandy getting some time. In Perez I see a good defender, although am a bit worried about his bat. He could be solid and hit .270 with an OPS approaching .700, but he also could flail and hit .230/.600. Soto is kind of the inverse: if Sosh optimizes his matchups he could really mash, and should at least be average defensively. Bandy could have higher upside than both, or at least will likely improve to the degree that he's got a clear spot on the major league roster next year.

 

The infield is somewhat weak, but I think Pujols could have a solid year, maybe hit .265/.800 with 30ish HR in 130 games. I think Gio will quietly impress, make small gains with the bat and pleasantly surprise with close-to-average defense, making him the Eckstein of the team. Simmons will go through his struggles at the plate, although I see a step forward for him--maybe next year, after adjusting to the AL. But his defense will greatly help the pitching staff and have a subtle impact on the entire team (great defensive plays simply cannot be quantified by statistics in terms of their impact on a game). Escobar won't hit .300+ again, but he'll be solid and no worse than average, a 2-3 WAR player.

 

In the outfield, Trout will continue to improve in small ways and be incredible overall. I see him breaking the 1.000 OPS barrier for the first time and being, once again, the best player in the league-- maybe .300/.400/.600 with 40-45 HR and 20 SB, 9+ WAR. Calhoun will combine the rate stats of 2013-14 with the playing time of 2015 and hit a solid .270/.350/450 with 25 HR, and Nava will give the Angels the .350+ OBP leadoff man they've been lacking.

 

DH and the bench has an interesting assortment of players. I really don't know what to think of Cron, although at best I see something like .270/.800 with 25 HR, at worst more of what we've seen. I want to see Ji-Man Choi succeed, but he reminds me of an old Bobby Abreu: a .250 hitter with some walks but little power, no speed, and no defensive value.

 

Overall the offense will be good to very good, and surprise many.

 

In the rotation, I think Richards splits the difference between 2014 and 2015, establishing himself as a--if not true ace--then a "#1.5," and one of the ten best starters in the AL. Heaney will be solidly good but not great, and Skaggs will surprise later on in the year. Tropeano will get his time and do well enough. Weaver and Wilson won't get 30 starts between the two of them, imo, maybe not even 20. Hector "Ervin" Santiago will be pretty good for half the year. The rotation will be, overall, average to above average.

 

The bullpen will be a quiet jewel (courtesy of Scotty for convincing me of this view). Maybe not stellar, but very good.

 

Overall, I see a team that will surprise many and win 85-92 games and compete for the division. Of course the collapse potential is great, and on paper this team is only an injury to Trout from 70 wins. But I like what I see, a nice mixture of parts that could become more than their sum. I think also the team will thrive with lower expectations.

[RallyPanda]

The fact that we had a good spring has peaked my interest a little more and I'm thinking I may have been underestimating this team a bit.

[Chuck]

Good post, AJ. 

 

I'm sharing a bunch of your optimism and takes on the club heading into the 2016 campaign. 

[rick99gtp]

Totally agree.

 

Watching that last game against the Dodgers had me intrigued with Gentry batting in front of Trout.  Two of the fastest runners in baseball.  The aggressiveness of the team throughout spring training means we are going to have to work harder for our runs but also means it puts more pressure on the defense, which I like a lot.

 

Heaney and Skaggs showed me something as well.  The pitching staff along with the defense should keep us in most games.

 

I'm really looking forward to a great year!

Edited April 3, 2016 by rick99gtp

[Glen]

Always start the season with optimism.  I know it's only spring training but it seems like the team is gelling.  Looking forward to seeing what happens next.

[ScottT]

I'm excited,,, that baseball is back.

 

I feel pretty much the same way about the Angels as I did a month ago.   This team could win the division.  They could finish 4th.  I'm little more optimistic about Nava... a bit more pessimistic about Wilson. There's a lot of question marks.  Sure, Skaggs looked great last night, and he was once a top 15 prospect in MLB, but he looked great at times in 2014 and he hasn't pitched in quite a while.  I'm still concerned about Weaver... how long they will keep him in the rotation... how his career will end.  

 

84-78.  3rd place

[Blarg]

Three of the last four games the Angels put a B squad against regular starting rosters and won. If you don't think the Dodgers were interested in beating the Angels just because it was preseason you are wrong. The Cubs gave us tomorrow's starting lineup today and really didn't accomplish that much facing a number 5 pitcher and then scrub minor league pitchers.

The Cubs have to face the Angels full lineup tomorrow in the Angels home field. If they couldn't push around the B squad today, how much success do you think they will have in the series?

[Angelsjunky]

I'd like to think ST translates directly into the regular season, bit rarely works like that. How many times have we seen Albert put up vintage Pujolsian numbers in ST simply to revert to Angels form in April?

 

Anyhow, I don't know why today's game wasn't a regular season game. I can't remember seeing a three-game series in which the first game was exhibition and the next two regular season. Seems like a waste.

[ScottT]

David Fletcher probably doesn't think it was a waste.  

[ten ocho recon scout]

Ive been underwhelmed this offseason, and didnt catch any spring training games because of work. But ive watched a few this week (because they were at night), and i have to admit, it does seem better than expected. Maybe im just geeked because baseball is back, but either way, im ready to start the year. Playoffs will be a stretch, but we should have a fun year

[tdawg87]

Season not over

[Second Base]

I think the biggest thing I'm excited about after the Spring is our pitching staff. It doesn't get much credit, but if Heaney, Skaggs and Tropeano all pitch the way they can, you can line them up behind Richards and suddenly find yourself with a really good rotation. At that point, you just sort of round it out with whoever is performing, be it Santiago, Shoemaker or anyone else.

Also, just imagine for a second that Morin is back to form, Rasmus is completely healthy, Bedrock is locating his pitches, and one of Alburquerque, Guerra or Mahle hit their stride. The Angels only need one of those to go right to have a competent bullpen, but if two or more happen, those kids could be really good.

Edited April 4, 2016 by ScottyA_MWAH

[WeatherWonk]

I'm feeling somewhat "wait and see". Will the Angels again stumble out of the starting blocks in April? It seems a pattern with them, though they were "only" 11-11 in April last year.

 

To me, it just feels like too many guys have to have the best season of their career, thus far, for us to contend. Heaney, Trop, Santiago, Gentry/Nava, Soto/Perez, Cron. And KC has to improve his hitting from last year. We also need more from an Aging Albert.

 

Who knows about the bullpen? Tough to get a read.

 

83-79. Third place.

[Jason]

Core players look sharp. Sure hope the injuries are minimal. I don't see enough depth to deal with them.

Edited April 4, 2016 by Angels N Skins

[Ohtaniland]

Good to see a team improve without having to spend hundreds of millions more. This team looks hungry and much better prepared than last seasons team. The new coaching staff has this team more focused. Should be a fun season.

[OregonLAA]

I'm thinking Trour exceeds expectations this year. More outrageous numbers than before

[tdawg87]

Trout is gonna put up a 26 WAR season

[Docwaukee]

Trout is gonna put up a 26 WAR season

what is the chubby conversion rate on that?  

[tdawg87]

what is the chubby conversion rate on that?

It would literally fly off and enter the nth dimension.

[Halos of Anaheim]

Good to see a team improve without having to spend hundreds of millions more. This team looks hungry and much better prepared than last seasons team. The new coaching staff has this team more focused. Should be a fun season.

 

[WallyWorld]

Three of the last four games the Angels put a B squad against regular starting rosters and won. If you don't think the Dodgers were interested in beating the Angels just because it was preseason you are wrong. The Cubs gave us tomorrow's starting lineup today and really didn't accomplish that much facing a number 5 pitcher and then scrub minor league pitchers.

The Cubs have to face the Angels full lineup tomorrow in the Angels home field. If they couldn't push around the B squad today, how much success do you think they will have in the series?

You're new to baseball, aren't you?

[Docwaukee]

Nice assessment AJ.  

 

I didn't like last years team.  They were boring.  It was the most frustrating season I can remember for a really long time.  My biggest problem?  They sucked at hitting.  They had the second fewest hits in all of baseball.  They had the 5th lowest obp.  The hr and Mike Trout was how we barely got by.  So outside of Trout, we made more outs than any other team.  

 

This year, we are gonna hit our way on much more.  No more 'trophy taking' as Eppler calls it.  It's the return of frenzied hitting or at least the version that corresponds to our current environment.  We are gonna score runs and it's not gonna be a problem. 

 

In the end though, It's gonna come down to pitching.  We need to be better than last year.  

 

Richards has to be better.  He will

Santiago has to be better.  He will

Heaney needs to be about the same, but over a full season.  I am the least optimistic about that happening.  His minor league success was predicated on missing bats.  He hasn't been doing that in the major since he's been up and he gives up a lot of hits.  We shall see, but a k rate of somewhere in the mid 6s and a hit rate of almost 9 per 9 means that he would need to be a groundball pitcher to succeed.  He hasn't been and that scare me.  

Weaves is toast.  I love the guy, but he's not gonna last long in the rotation.  And that brings us to Skaggs.  He's gonna be the lynch pin for success this year.  I don't want to have to rely on him to succeed considering that he's coming off injury, but it's gonna be necessary.  

The last spot in the rotation is gonna be Shoe and Trop.  They will ham and egg it enough to get us what we need from that spot.  

 

The pen is iffy in my opinion.  Maybe a better way to describe them is capable yet unspectacular.  Why?  Because Street and Smith aren't dominant.  Alvarez and Morin and Salas and Rasmus and Mahle and Alburquerque and whoever else they throw out there aren't dominant.  Maybe, just maybe Bedrosian could be, but it's unlikely.  Chances are a couple of those guys have good years and a couple others have bad ones.  But it's gonna even out to mediocre.  We are that dominant arm in the pen away from being very good in this regard.  

[Docwaukee]

You're new to baseball, aren't you?

baseball is played by humans.  On paper, spring doesn't mean much.  Sweeping your crosstown rival in games that don't really matter can give some umph to a clubhouse.  Confidence is real and can't be measured by WAR.  Anyone who has ever played baseball knows this.  

[Lou]

baseball is played by humans.  On paper, spring doesn't mean much.  Sweeping your crosstown rival in games that don't really matter can give some umph to a clubhouse.  Confidence is real and can't be measured by WAR.  Anyone who has ever played baseball knows this.

or any other sport. Or had a sales job. Or spoke in public. Or chased women....

[Redondo]

I'm feeling somewhat "wait and see". Will the Angels again stumble out of the starting blocks in April? It seems a pattern with them, though they were "only" 11-11 in April last year.

 

 

Angels need to get off to a good start and have a solid April to start the season. Keep those bats working like they were in ST.