2014 to 2015 to Now

[nando714]

Team won 98 games in 2014. No one expected that and yes we know only to be swept in 3 games. Hamilton missed some time and came back and was just awful. Who played LF when he was out? I don't remember

Last year we had 1 really good month (I believe July). Trout had a awful August if I remember correctly. Then the rest of the year happened

My memory is not great but what was the difference from 2014 to 2015 and also what makes us so sure 2016 is going to suck?

I mean I'll take a platoon of Nava and Gentry over a 2014 (and a current) Josh Hamilton. I'd like to get freese back and move Escobar to 2B. Simmons is the best defensive SS. We get Skaggs back to go along with the rest of the staff. What I'm trying to compare now is the bullpen from 2014 to now. How is it different? I'm sure a guy like shoemaker or Santiago will go in the pen giving it more depth

I feel like we have almost the same team we had when this team won 98 games and now all of a sudden its shit bc we didn't sign a left fielder? Maybe I'm just trying to be positive. I'm not saying we're winning 98 games this year but would it surprise anyone if we made the playoffs? I feel like the west is wide open.

So I guess my question is what makes this team different from 2014?

[nate]

Cowgill played a lot in the OF.  Probably a few more but I am not remembering them now.

[nando714]

Cowgill played a lot in the OF. Probably a few more but I am not remembering them now.

I'm sure Navarro got some PT

[nate]

I just looked it up.  JB Shuck (27 games) and Cowgill (28 games) played in the OF in place of Hamilton.

[stormngt]

Team won 98 games in 2014. No one expected that and yes we know only to be swept in 3 games. Hamilton missed some time and came back and was just awful. Who played LF when he was out? I don't remember

Last year we had 1 really good month (I believe July). Trout had a awful August if I remember correctly. Then the rest of the year happened

My memory is not great but what was the difference from 2014 to 2015 and also what makes us so sure 2016 is going to suck?

I mean I'll take a platoon of Nava and Gentry over a 2014 (and a current) Josh Hamilton. I'd like to get freese back and move Escobar to 2B. Simmons is the best defensive SS. We get Skaggs back to go along with the rest of the staff. What I'm trying to compare now is the bullpen from 2014 to now. How is it different? I'm sure a guy like shoemaker or Santiago will go in the pen giving it more depth

I feel like we have almost the same team we had when this team won 98 games and now all of a sudden its shit bc we didn't sign a left fielder? Maybe I'm just trying to be positive. I'm not saying we're winning 98 games this year but would it surprise anyone if we made the playoffs? I feel like the west is wide open.

So I guess my question is what makes this team different from 2014?

Hamilton was about average in 2014.  Our bench was much better in 2014.  Cowgill, Navarro, and Green all came up for short term and produced.  That didn't happen with any of those players in 2015.  Aybar was better both offensively and defensively in 2014.  Kendrick was much better defensively than Gio can dream of being and Kendrick was damn good offensively in 2014.  Richards and Shoemaker had career years as pitchers.  And let's not even talk about the difference of performance of Ianetta

[arch stanton]

To me the biggest difference between '14 and '15 was the middle relief. They did a nice job getting Grilli to go with Jepsen and Morin pitched good most of the time. In '15 Morin was hurt or sucked, Grilli was gone and Jepsen was traded for a negative WAR LFer. Throw in Rasmus' problems and you lost a very solid bridge to the 8th that was also depth in extra innings. I think that probably cost 5 or 6 games right there.

[nate]

Jepsen and Morin were very good.  Also Richards was a true Ace and Shoe was well above league average.

[Halos of Anaheim]

No Kendrick, No Freese, No Iannetta, Pujols is 2 years older, Weaver is 2 years older, Wilson is 2 years older, worse bullpen..

 

I could go on and on honestly. 

[nando714]

I completely forgot about Richards performance in 2014

[Stradling]

The difference between 2014 and 2015 was the bullpen, the starting pitching, the bench, Iannetta was very good in 2014, left field was league average. Howie was good, Aybar was much better, Calhoun had a better year. In 2015 we had an awful August and Freese went down and we had no one offensively that could step up in his absence. We have solidified the bench, we have enough arms to piece together something better than last year. We have better OBP at the top of the line up. We have upgraded SS and hopefully LF will at least give us a positive WAR unlike last year.

[stormngt]

To me the biggest difference between '14 and '15 was the middle relief. They did a nice job getting Grilli to go with Jepsen and Morin pitched good most of the time. In '15 Morin was hurt or sucked, Grilli was gone and Jepsen was traded for a negative WAR LFer. Throw in Rasmus' problems and you lost a very solid bridge to the 8th that was also depth in extra innings. I think that probably cost 5 or 6 games right there.

Good points. The bull pen was much stronger down the stretch in 2014. Rasmus could not have done a better job replacing Richards

[Angel Oracle]

Anyone have confidence that Rasmus can stay healthy in 2016?

We can't seriously consider going with Tossed Salad or Al Al in the 7th inning role?

[Docwaukee]

War 2014 vs. 2015

 

Iannetta 3.0 vs. 0.5

Cowgill 2.0 vs. 0.4

2b 4.5 vs. 0.3

Aybar 4.3 vs. 1.0

Pujols 2.9 vs. 2.0

LF 0.9 vs. -1.0

 

Richards 4.3 vs. 2.5

Shoemaker 2.1 vs. 0.7

Weaver 1.5 vs. 0.6

Pen overall 3.6 vs. 2.8

 

When guys follow up really good seasons with pretty bad ones, you are gonna feel it.  

 

We outperformed out base runs and pythag by 5-6 wins last year.  Something fairly common in the MS era.  While I don't think we should rely on it, it has been reproducible.  

 

That said, if we were a 78 win team on paper for 2015 and a 98 win team on paper for 2014, then i think we split the difference.  

 

I like us for about 88 wins with year.  I think the offense will be right down the middle of 2014 and 2015.  I think the pen will lean more toward the 2015 version and I think the pitching will lean more toward the 2014 version.  

 

The 2014 team really took off when we dumped Frieri.  At the time we were 38-33.  Then we went 60-31 because our pitching absolutely took off.  The offense during that stretch put up a .716 ops with a .318 obp.  The offense before that had an ops of .744 with an obp of .327.  

 

Our pitching during the 38-33 strech?  3.90 era.  

During the 60-31 stretch?  3.33 era.  

 

Here is an interesting comparison:  (keep in mind that we play about 25 more games in the first vs. the second half.)

 

Reliever WAR in the first vs. second half of 2014?  

-0.1 vs. 3.9

 

Starters WAR in the first vs. second half of 2014?

7.0 (.075/gm) vs. 4.6 (.068/gm)

 

Batting/Defense?

23.0 (.245/gm)  vs  7.5 (.110/gm)

 

So we took off in the second half but the SP and Offense were actually worse on a WAR/gm basis.  Yet the pen went into rock star lock down mode.   hmmmmmmm.  

 

now we see teams making their pens tremendously deep.   hmmmmmmm.

 

Since 2000 (MS), the Angels have played in the most 1 run games in all of baseball and have the 2nd highest w% of .539.  Margin of victory of 2 or less we have played in the 3rd most games and have the second highest w%.  

 

We absolutely wasted the 2011 and 2012 seasons because of a crappy pen.  It was the major factor for us not making it to the post season in each those years.  No pen was gonna help the 2013 team but the pen sucked anyway.  

 

the second half of 2014 we take off after the pen gets revamped.  

 

the 2015 pen was ranked 17th by WAR and we finish with 85 wins.  

 

I think everyone sees what I'm getting at.  

[laagamer]

I'd like to tell Freese to fly a kite, keep Escobar at 3B and use the money plus Shoemaker or Santiago to get us a damn LF.

What's with the Johnny G hate? He's not great but in no way is he hurting us.

[Guest]

The team is worse, and the rest of the division is getting much better . That means it'll take more than 2014's team to win the division

[tomsred]

We also have a much tougher National League schedule this year.

[Second Base]

I mean if we're comparing the three seasons, I expect the starters to closely resemble 2014, the bullpen will be more like 2015, and the offense more like 2015.

So if 2014 results in 98 wins, but now we have a worse offense and bullpen, it's down to 90. Then we have to account for the Rangers improving, the Astros skyrocketing and the M's no longer just being a pushover. That's a couple less wins each.

I think the end result is likely an 84 win team. Better than .500 but still a solid 5 games out of the Wild Card and 6-7 out of first place. Not a bad team, but not a contender.

[tomsred]

I so tired of projecting, it will be nice to get back to one game at a time.

[mtangelsfan]

I'd like to tell Freese to fly a kite, keep Escobar at 3B and use the money plus Shoemaker or Santiago to get us a damn LF.

What's with the Johnny G hate? He's not great but in no way is he hurting us.

 

2b 4.5 vs. 0.3

[laagamer]

2b 4.5 vs. 0.3

 

Johnny G had a WAR of 1.0 last season. 

 

Please, try and explain how that isn't serviceable. 

[Stradling]

It's 1 win over a guy you bring up from the minors. And you two are probably using two different versions of WAR.

[QuinlansMinion]

2014 team had a lot of guys produce at or above their career norms, and we beat up on the crap teams in our division.  There is nobody in the division to beat up on this year except maybe the A's, but they find a way to beat us even with their double a crap lineup.  Check our record against the Astros and Rangers in 2014, then check our record against average or above average teams.  

[laagamer]

It's 1 win over a guy you bring up from the minors. And you two are probably using two different versions of WAR.

 

BR has him at 1.0 and FG at 1.1 

 

I'm also using the one that says "WAR". 

[Docwaukee]

A WAR of 1 is serviceable?  bleh.  

[halobob]

Team won 98 games in 2014. No one expected that and yes we know only to be swept in 3 games. Hamilton missed some time and came back and was just awful. Who played LF when he was out? I don't remember

Last year we had 1 really good month (I believe July). Trout had a awful August if I remember correctly. Then the rest of the year happened

My memory is not great but what was the difference from 2014 to 2015 and also what makes us so sure 2016 is going to suck?

I mean I'll take a platoon of Nava and Gentry over a 2014 (and a current) Josh Hamilton. I'd like to get freese back and move Escobar to 2B. Simmons is the best defensive SS. We get Skaggs back to go along with the rest of the staff. What I'm trying to compare now is the bullpen from 2014 to now. How is it different? I'm sure a guy like shoemaker or Santiago will go in the pen giving it more depth

I feel like we have almost the same team we had when this team won 98 games and now all of a sudden its shit bc we didn't sign a left fielder? Maybe I'm just trying to be positive. I'm not saying we're winning 98 games this year but would it surprise anyone if we made the playoffs? I feel like the west is wide open.

So I guess my question is what makes this team different from 2014?

Stop being so positive, this isn't allowed on Angelswin.

 

The entire AL is wide open...most of the teams over/under wins in Vegas are in the 80s so anything can happen.