Red Sox shopping Ramirez on Cyber Monday

[NorCal Halo]

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/los-angeles-angels

 

"the Mariners, Orioles, and Angels “seem to be the targets”".

 

"Of course, trading Ramirez is probably easier said than done."

 

Maybe, Cafardo should try to offer a Cyber Monday discount.  Why is it that Boston and New York always think they can dump their players on us; it's just Toronto who can.

[AngelStew43]

I'd trade CJ Wilson for him straight up.

[DMVol]

I'd trade CJ Wilson for him straight up.

A lot of money to take on, even if you trade Wilson...

Edited November 30, 2015 by DMVol

[totdprods]

I still think this would be a good option to consider if it meant we received a prospect or two. 

Brock Holt, Jackie Bradley, Xander Bogaerts, Rafael Devers, Rusney Castillo, Devin Marrero, Garin Cecchini, Yoan Moncada, Andrew Benintendi. Probably not Mookie Betts unless the Angels got crazy and considered swapping Calhoun, Richards, or Heaney in a blockbuster package.

 

Still, there's a lot of young OFers and IFers for the Sox and not enough positions, if one or two could be had by taking on HanRam and some money could be really worth it, especially if all the Angels gave up was one of the Shoe/Wilson/Santiago group.

 

That money spent on HanRam is money saved by plugging Holt in at 2nd, JBJ as 4th OF, or whomever.

Edited November 30, 2015 by totdprods

[Blarg]

Ramirez has had one full year of play in the last five. He is a lousy defender. He is owed a minimum of $66 million over the next three years.

 

No, just no and it doesn't matter what the package is the Red Sox cannot make him worthwhile to the Angels.

[NorCal Halo]

The Red Sox want to get rid of Ramirez in order to free up money for Chris Davis.  I would rather have Chris Davis and let the Red Sox sink under Ramirez's contract.

[arch stanton]

Yeah I hope nobody bails the Red Sox out and takes on Ramirez or Sandoval. They all deserve each other.

[greginpsca]

Yeah I hope nobody bails the Red Sox out and takes on Ramirez or Sandoval. They all deserve each other.

It's no coincidence the Sox have a new GM after signing those 2.  Dombrowski is hoping he can clean up his predecessors mess.

[Stradling]

I'm certain the Red Sox are going to be paying a ton of that contract. I'm guessing they will pay close to $30 million.

[marcosantinia12]

I'd normally agree with you guys, but I feel like some of you are evaluating him as if he was a FA or a straight up player for player trade. I would stay far, far away from Hanley if he was a FA. I knew from the get-go that the Redsox would be regretting that deal for him last winter. However, everything changes at the right price.

How about CJ Wilson for Ramirez and Holt?

Its a 2016 salary swap so we would get Ramirez for $70.25 M/4 years (17.56 AAV) or $48.25 M/3 (16.1 AAV)
If they can pay say 8.25 million of his remaining salary we can get him for 62/4 (15.5 AAV) or 40/3 (13.3 AAV).

That is incredibly good value for Hanley, regardless of the questions that come with him. I personally would not be drawn to signing him for that if he was in the FA market, but all I am saying is that he exceeds that if he was. But that's not the point. The real objective here is filling another roster need by obtaining Holt for cheap - controlled through 2019. 

You essentially get Hanley Ramirez AND a young Brock Holt for 13.3M to 17.56M in value plus Holt's minimum salary and arbitration raises. Pretty affordable considering we have mentioned wanting to get Zobrist who projects for 3/51. Just think about that... Getting HanRam and Holt together would actually be cheaper than Zobrist, and that's assuming Boston would not be open to paying off 8 mil of his 70-90mil owed. No only cheaper but you get 7-8 years between the 2. 

I see Holt as a mini Zobrist and he himself would have a pretty high value in the FA market. I would think that Boston would be open to trading him with Hanley Ramirez though, if it meant sparring their prospects. Meanwhile they would be receiving an SP who they may be able to flip a draft pick for after next season. 

As for the Angels, I'd stick Holt at 2nd and Ramirez at third. I know, I know Ramirez is pretty bad defensively (to put it lightly), but I would say the plan is to play Cron and generate enough value to potentially flip him in a package for a solid, young 3B and move Ramirez over to 1st/DH. Meanwhile, I could live with Ramirez at third with Simmons covering a lot of ground on the left side of the diamond. 

In the case of Ramirez getting injured, we have a battle of Cowart/Kubitza/Giovotella for that takeover spot. Either Kubitza/Cowart at 3rd, or Giovotella at second and Holt at third.

1. Heyward
2. Holt
3. Trout
4. Pujols
5. Ramirez
6. Calhoun
7. Cron
8. Perez
9. Simmons

[marcosantinia12]

I'm certain the Red Sox are going to be paying a ton of that contract. I'm guessing they will pay close to $30 million.

Agreed. Unless of course there was a salary flip. I would hope they would be open to paying 5-10 mil while taking on CJ's 2016 salary. 

[Cdaniel]

Agreed. Unless of course there was a salary flip. I would hope they would be open to paying 5-10 mil while taking on CJ's 2016 salary.

If we did this I would hope we sign Heyward and a SP. what would that do to our payroll?

[marcosantinia12]

If we did this I would hope we sign Heyward and a SP. what would that do to our payroll?

I don't think he would have a big effect on the payroll. 2016 is a wash with us sending CJ to them.  In 2017 we will drop Weaver's 17M AAV so that would pay for Ramirez itself. Hamilton comes off the books in 2018 as well and by then that money would just be extra to fill in any holes that may arise/extensions/arbitration etc. due to a majority our team being controlled.

C - FA in 2022

1B- FA in 2022

DH- FA in 2021

2B- FA in 2020 (Holt)

3B- FA in 2019/2020 (Ramirez)

SS- FA in 2021

LF- FA in 2020+ (Heyward or other top tier OF)

CF- FA in 2021

RF- FA in 2020

Edit: Looking at this list and realizing Ramirez is the earliest FA, by at least a year... the deal looks even more compelling. That and with the fact that we have major salary coming off the books in the next couple of years during his tenure. 

 

Edited November 30, 2015 by marcosantinia12

[totdprods]

I don't think he would have a big effect on the payroll. 2016 is a wash with us sending CJ to them.  In 2017 we will drop Weaver's 17M AAV so that would pay for Ramirez itself. Hamilton comes off the books in 2018 as well and by then that money would just be extra to fill in any holes that may arise/extensions/arbitration etc. due to a majority our team being controlled.

C - FA in 2022

1B- FA in 2022

DH- FA in 2021

2B- FA in 2020 (Holt)

3B- FA in 2019/2020 (Ramirez)

SS- FA in 2021

LF- FA in 2020+ (Heyward or other top tier OF)

CF- FA in 2021

RF- FA in 2020

Edit: Looking at this list and realizing Ramirez is the earliest FA, by at least a year... the deal looks even more compelling. That and with the fact that we have major salary coming off the books in the next couple of years during his tenure. 

 

 

Locking up a starting nine like that sure makes the barren farm less of a dire need. Gives Eppler 2016-2020 to rebuild the farm, as the MLB team would be locked down.

 

And it'd be a competitive team - HanRam has his baggage, but he's still produced a positive WAR every single season except last. 

 

Is he risky? Sure, but if you were able to cover 2B with a cheap player like Holt you're saving the team from spending $50m+ plus on Murphy or Zobrist or Kendrick. 

[Cdaniel]

I guess my questions is if we did this would be able to go out and sign a SP and LF this year.

[gotbeer]

Ramirez has 3 + a conditional 1 for $22 million a year.  So $66-88 million.  Conditional being 1050 PA in 17 and 18 and has to pass a physical.  Which as we know, teams could make it so he doesn't pass.

 

Hanley Ramirez + Brock Holt + 30 million for CJ Wilson 

 

$58 for 4 years is a bit over $14 a year.  He's a negative 1.8 WAR last year.  But before that, his war has been pretty good.  Plus he'd move from SS to 3B.  Bad thing is, he hasn't played 3B in a long while, and it wasn't much.  But I believe that a move from SS to 3B is a natural progression with players who's range is diminishing with age.  (Ripken, Aroid)  

 

Also, at $14 million a year.  It's a lot easier to flip if it doesn't work out.  IMO our risk is probably only going to be about $4 million for the last 3 years, since I think he would easily be unloaded for $10 million.  

 

If you make this move, then really LF and SP is your only hole.  

 

Possible lineup.

1  Holt 2B

2  Calhoun RF/Ramirez 3B/Simmons SS

3 Trout CF

4 Cespedez LF

5 Pujols 1B

6 Calhoun RF/Ramirez 3B/Simmons SS

7 Trumbo (dammit I am still holding out hope)/Cron DH

8 Perez C

9 Calhoun RF/Ramirez 3B/Simmons SS

[Blarg]

Marco have you even bothered to look at how few games Ramirez has played in over the last five years and the fact he is also in the decline years? Just what is you expectations that he will suddenly become a reliable starter?

I have none and as you saw last year when Freese went down it caused the lineup continuity to crumble. The Angels really can't support part time players with no bench depth from the minors.

[totdprods]

I guess my questions is if we did this would be able to go out and sign a SP and LF this year.

 

We'd probably be able to afford one big name. It's hard to say because there's so many variables.

How much are the Sox willing to eat? Would they take CJ, and if so, how would that affect what we pay for Hanley? Or would they take CJ and another player - Cron, Shoemaker, Santiago, Bedrosian, Bandy - and if so, would that mean another prospect back with Holt and HanRam, or would they simply eat more salary?

 

Even after the theoretical trade, what moves would be made then? Santiago for Plouffe/Prado, adding more salary there?

Further still, how much is Arte really willing to spend? How much is he actually willing to go over tax for the "right player"?

[Cdaniel]

Marco have you even bothered to look at how few games Ramirez has played in over the last five years and the fact he is also in the decline years? Just what is you expectations that he will suddenly become a reliable starter?

I have none and as you saw last year when Freese went down it caused the lineup continuity to crumble. The Angels really can't support part time players with no bench depth from the minors.

I think idea of the trade is to get Holt and anything you get from Hanley is a bonus. If Hanley goes down than we are still solid with Cowart and Kubitza )sp?)

[marcosantinia12]

I guess my questions is if we did this would be able to go out and sign a SP and LF this year.

Like I mentioned, I don't think this really would have any impact on those signings. Trading CJ's salary in full makes this possible. Lets put it this way...

Ramirez's affect on Average Annual Value by year 

2016 : + 4.5M AAV

2017: +22M AAV ...... - 17M AAV (Weaver) = +5AAV

2018: +22M AA/ ....... - Weavers AAV on current payroll = +5AAV.... -25M AAV (Hamilton)

2019: FA or +22M AAV ..... 0 or +5AAV 

Now, can we sign a premium SP + Heyward? Probably not. I think Heyward + Maeda/Gallardo/Fister is a perfectly doable combo though. 

You can make the case that the money coming off (Weaver and Hamilton) was meant for the expense of an SP but with our current budget room plus those contracts off the books we can afford one of the combos mentioned plus Ramirez & Holt. Especially because we would have a locked down lineup. 

[marcosantinia12]

Ramirez has 3 + a conditional 1 for $22 million a year.  So $66-88 million.  Conditional being 1050 PA in 17 and 18 and has to pass a physical.  Which as we know, teams could make it so he doesn't pass.

 

Hanley Ramirez + Brock Holt + 30 million for CJ Wilson 

 

$58 for 4 years is a bit over $14 a year.  He's a negative 1.8 WAR last year.  But before that, his war has been pretty good.  Plus he'd move from SS to 3B.  Bad thing is, he hasn't played 3B in a long while, and it wasn't much.  But I believe that a move from SS to 3B is a natural progression with players who's range is diminishing with age.  (Ripken, Aroid)  

 

Also, at $14 million a year.  It's a lot easier to flip if it doesn't work out.  IMO our risk is probably only going to be about $4 million for the last 3 years, since I think he would easily be unloaded for $10 million.  

 

If you make this move, then really LF and SP is your only hole.  

 

Possible lineup.

1  Holt 2B

2  Calhoun RF/Ramirez 3B/Simmons SS

3 Trout CF

4 Cespedez LF

5 Pujols 1B

6 Calhoun RF/Ramirez 3B/Simmons SS

7 Trumbo (dammit I am still holding out hope)/Cron DH

8 Perez C

9 Calhoun RF/Ramirez 3B/Simmons SS

Did you take into account Wilson's salary that we would send over? we wouldn't be taking on 66-88 million. We would be taking on 48-70. I'd be thrilled for Boston to pay 10 mil which I think its pretty doable. 

[totdprods]

Sox just signed Chris Young (the outfielder) so their OF situation is even more crowded.

 

Jackie Bradley, Jr. would be a nice piece to add into the mix as well. Could develop into a Heyward-type player - great defense, good speed, solid bat. 

If the Angels were to go short and cheap in LF (Aoki, Span, Parra types) and mix JBJ into it, could allow them to spend on pitching.

 

SP plus for Holt, HanRam, and JBJ?

[gotbeer]

Did you take into account Wilson's salary that we would send over? we wouldn't be taking on 66-88 million. We would be taking on 48-70. I'd be thrilled for Boston to pay 10 mil which I think its pretty doable. 

 

Naw.  I figure that long term the Holt vs CJ would balance out.  On the Boston side, at $30 million they contribute, they would be saving about $16  million without the option, and $38 million with the option.  

[marcosantinia12]

Marco have you even bothered to look at how few games Ramirez has played in over the last five years and the fact he is also in the decline years? Just what is you expectations that he will suddenly become a reliable starter?

I have none and as you saw last year when Freese went down it caused the lineup continuity to crumble. The Angels really can't support part time players with no bench depth from the minors.

Notti, of course I did. I mentioned specifically that this trade works only if its not a player-for-player trade.

Let me ask you this...

What do you value Ramirez ? What would he be value in the FA market?

What do you value Holt? What is his FA value?

Ramirez: Despite his down year last season (only the 2nd time in 10 years he has had an OPS+ below 100) his 3 year average is 2.2 WAR. that translates to 15.4M per year. You can make the case that this should be lower because of the factors that statistics do not account for (health issues, decline, etc.) but you can also make the case that last year was an outlier and that age 31 he did not suddenly turn into a pumpkin. 

Lets say that his true value lies between 13M (being modest for an impact bat when healthy) to 16M.

Holt: In his first 2 seasons, he has been a very consistent 2.3/2.4 player(with 106 and 129 games played btw). His value translates to about 16.45M. Let's say teams pay 12-15 for him (i'll be modest again, because of his lack of experience). 

To sum it up, that is at the very minimum 25M in value that you would receive for at most 18M + league minimum & arbitration raises. 

Edit:

If Ramirez got injured, which I'll admit myself will probably happen at one point, Cowart/Kubitza/Giovotella our at back up options. You say the team crumbles when we have to rely on our depth... but as it stand, that depth is currently our starters. 

Edited November 30, 2015 by marcosantinia12

[marcosantinia12]

Naw.  I figure that long term the Holt vs CJ would balance out.  On the Boston side, at $30 million they contribute, they would be saving about $16  million without the option, and $38 million with the option.  

Ok, I see... That makes sense.