The Mandatory 5

[Eric]

About a dozen years ago or so, PercySquint and I were talking and we noticed a unique phenomenon in the world of Angels baseball.

When the Angels scored 5 runs in any one inning, they seemed to win the game 100% of the time.

We began calling it the "Mando 5".

Stats geeks among you, is this an accurate stat? Have we blinded ourselves to the reality that it occasionally doesn't happen? Granted, if it's not 100% it's gotta be in the high 90's, so close as to almost being 100%.

What say you, stat geeks?

[Taylor]

We say, "Learn how to spell mandatory."

 

 

 

 

 

[dimitrig]

I noticed that when the Angels outscore their competitors they seem to win 100% of the time.

 

Stats geeks among you, is this an accurate stat?

[Blarg]

Only if Frieri isn't closing.

 

Frieri is gone, so yes.

[Eric]

Yeah, yeah, so I spelled Mandatory wrong.

 

I happened to have imbibed a bit tonight. What of it?

 

That's not the critical question.

 

I've never been a "stats" person, I'm more old-school.  So I ask again, is this something that just seems like it happens all the time or is it statistically provable?

 

Or is it something that there's just not the stats to say one way or another and we are just going to have to take on faith until proven wrong?

[LAAMike]

Where is Mike - "Percy Squint"?  He should be loving the chowderheads taking a dump. 

[SoCALkid]

I noticed that when the Angels outscore their competitors they seem to win 100% of the time.

 

Stats geeks among you, is this an accurate stat?

If this is true, this could be a huge break through. Outscoring your opponents, it's a bold strategy let's see if it pays off for them.

[TroutBaseball]

I'm sure most teams win when they are able to score 5 in an inning.  There's a way to look it up on Baseball-reference.com but I don't have those skills.

[Sam Sanchez]

If a team scores 5 runs in one inning in a game, the odds are they have scored at least 1 more run elsewhere in the game. I'd say it's a safe bet that a team that scores 6+ runs in a game will have scored more runs than their opponent more often than not.

Edited September 18, 2014 by Sam Sanchez

[Angelsjunky]

Consider this: When a team scores 5+ runs in a game, they win more often than not. The Angels lead the majors this year with 4.89 runs per game, with the average being 4.08. It fluctuates historically, with high offense eras averaging more like 5ish runs per game (2000 was the highest in recent decades at 5.14), but the historical average is more around 4ish, maybe a bit more.

 

So if most teams score 4 runs per game, when you score 5 runs you win more often than not. Now if you score 5 runs in an inning, chances are you score at least another run or three in the other 8 innings. So I don't think it as much about the 5 in one inning, but the total for the game and how that one inning pads it.

 

I'm guessing that there is an "s-curve" at work, where if 4 runs per game leads to winning 50% of the time, 5 runs per game leads to winning 60% of the time, 6 runs 70%, 7 runs 85%,  8 runs 95%, 9 runs 98%, 10 runs 99%, 11 runs 99.5%, etc. Or something like that - I'm just guessing, although there is probably research out there somewhere.