Capuano Drops Asking Price

[Brent Maguire]

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/explaining-the-chris-capuano-bargain/

Good article about Capuano. Basically, he can be around a league average pitcher and not cost too much.

"Every starting rotation needs higher-quality pitchers, and every starting rotation needs guys who don’t suck. Capuano doesn’t suck, and he could help out toward the back end, for a very reasonable cost."

[Brent Maguire]

Flop, I'm not sure Capuano would blow up that badly. He's ERA the last 2 years has been in the 3.8 range.

Lets say he's around a 4-4.20 ERA pitcher. The NL ERA was about .2 points lower so maybe Capuano has his ERA go up to 4.2-4.4. If he ages a bit, then bump it up to 4.4-4.6.

That's probably a worse case scenario for him. I like our chances with him because at worst he's probably a decent #5 starter.

Honestly 4.6 ERA out of our 5th starter doesn't sound too bad compared to last year. We need guys to just not suck completely out of the 4/5 spots.

[Hollyw00d]

Sign him! Quick before arte demands arroyo

[YouthofToday]

If we aren't going to sign another lefty does that mean we aren't pursuing Tim Tebow? But the tWtW?!?!

[Ohtaniland]

 

[VariousCrap]

Get Arroyo for 2/$15MM and Capuano for 1/$6-7MM and I'd feel way better about our rotation.

 

 

 

This I'd really like.

[VariousCrap]

If it is between Arroyo and Capuano, you sign Arroyo.  9 years of 200+ innings.  He is better than Capuano and more reliable.

[Brent Maguire]

It all comes down to the asking price. If you can get arroyo on a 1 year deal with an option, that would be pretty solid.

[arch stanton]

If we aren't going to sign another lefty does that mean we aren't pursuing Tim Tebow? But the tWtW?!?!

Never seen him throw a baseball but with a football he's got the best backfoot slider since Randy Johnson.

[Angelsjunky]

Get Arroyo for 2/$15MM and Capuano for 1/$6-7MM and I'd feel way better about our rotation.

 

So what do you do with Santiago and Skaggs?

 

Definitely not both, and maybe not even one (although I'd be fine with either one). As much as people bag on Blanton, he's bound to bounce back a bit at least and the difference between Blanton 2008-2012 and Capuano is negligible. I also think that Shoemaker could really surprise and be a Blanton-in-a-good-year type, or the type of pitcher Capuano is.

Edited February 1, 2014 by Angelsjunky

[Second Base]

I feel as though those who are clammoring for the Angels to sign another starter are basically acting like the child with a toy box full of toys that wants to go to McDonalds to get a happy meal toy. They just want something new and are completely unaware of how crappy those happy meal toys are and the value of their current pieces.

[jshep]

Or you know, aren't comfortable with a rotation that is comprised of 2 good pitchers who could still very likely get hurt and 3 youngsters who could suck/get hurt/or run out of gas as they blow past the 150 IP range none of them have ever gone past before

 

Or the fact that that rotation is currently backed up by Joe Blanton, a 36 year old Mark Mulder who hasn't pitched since he was 30 and hasn't been good since he was 27, Matt Shoemaker, and whatever castoffs are making up the rest of Salt Lake's rotation.

Edited February 1, 2014 by jshep

[tdawg87]

I feel as though those who are clammoring for the Angels to sign another starter are basically acting like the child with a toy box full of toys that wants to go to McDonalds to get a happy meal toy. They just want something new and are completely unaware of how crappy those happy meal toys are and the value of their current pieces.

 

You of all people should know how important depth is.

[Jim]

See if he'll take a minor league deal? Someone for Torrealba to play catch with. 

[Ohtaniland]

You of all people should know how important depth is.

Yes but if we end up with the same Blanton Happy Meal toy it won't be fun.

[Second Base]

You of all people should know how important depth is.

It is, but if you want depth then do it the smart way by building value, not by acquiring goods that have equal value to what you already have at a steeper price.

Capuano, Arroyo, Williams, these are all fine depth pieces. But are they better than Skaggs and Santiago? Not marginally, if at all. Yet they will cost 5+ million whereas Richards, Skaggs and Santiago are making the league minimum. This is what I mean by value.

Mulder and Shoemaker are the type of arms you want because they cost nothing and are not guaranteed anything. In this sense, if the Angels wish to acquire more depth, the smarter route to go is the one they're on with guys like Brennan Boesch, Carlos Pena and Chad Tracy.

Find a pitcher with past success who is willing to sign a minor league deal with ST invite. Someone like Tommy Hanson is actually ideal right now.

Take advantage of the Angels unique circumstance, a potential contender with money to spend and depth concerns with practically nothing in AAA. Pitchers looking to prove their way back into a rotation should flock to the Angels at this point because it gives them opportunity to inflate their value and cash in.

Edited February 1, 2014 by ScottyA_MWAH

[Homebrewer]

With only Bronson and Capuano types available in FA.....thinking now that a trade for someone else,  or going with what we have, might be better.

[Brent Maguire]

I disagree Scotty.

Skaggs has options and is still super young. I'm actually a very big fan of him but he should be the 6th starter going into the season. That's not a knock on him either as he'll still make plenty of starts.

I think getting a proven guy like Arroyo, Capuano, etc. makes a lot of sense.

[Docwaukee]

It is, but if you want depth then do it the smart way by building value, not by acquiring goods that have equal value to what you already have at a steeper price.

Capuano, Arroyo, Williams, these are all fine depth pieces. But are they better than Skaggs and Santiago? Not marginally, if at all. Yet they will cost 5+ million whereas Richards, Skaggs and Santiago are making the league minimum. This is what I mean by value.

Mulder and Shoemaker are the type of arms you want because they cost nothing and are not guaranteed anything. In this sense, if the Angels wish to acquire more depth, the smarter route to go is the one they're on with guys like Brennan Boesch, Carlos Pena and Chad Tracy.

Find a pitcher with past success who is willing to sign a minor league deal with ST invite. Someone like Tommy Hanson is actually ideal right now.

Take advantage of the Angels unique circumstance, a potential contender with money to spend and depth concerns with practically nothing in AAA. Pitchers looking to prove their way back into a rotation should flock to the Angels at this point because it gives them opportunity to inflate their value and cash in.

 

Getting an additional pitcher that is of similar capability to Skaggs and/or Santiago for 2014 isn't to replace one of them, it's to displace Blanton or other 6/7/8 starters who currently aren't as good as those guys. 

 

Our 6/7/8 starters are going to combine for about 30 starts.  You have to just assume that. 

Blanton etal gives us those starts to the tune of a 4.5-5.0 era or maybe worse.  Anything better would be luck and you can't rely on that. 

Arroyo or Capuano likely give you those starts to the tune of 4-4.5 era.  At least there is a much better chance they will based on track record anyway. 

 

0.5 runs per 9ip over 200 innings is 11 runs or about a win.  For 7mil, you are probably buying a win and also providing some safeguard for injury or poor performance. 

 

Also, if the added veteran SP does well yet the rest of the team fails again, you have another piece to trade at the deadline.  Look at what Scott Feldman got the cubs. 

 

Santiago and Skaggs are going to get their starts regardless of whether we add one more guy. 

[Second Base]

The Angels flushing 5 million down the toilet on Capuano when he is not a better pitcher than Skaggs just because you're worried Weaver's going to get hurt or Richards will be ineffective would be the equivalent of spending unnecessary money on Nelson Cruz because you think Josh Hamilton might tank it again and you aren't sure Kole Calhoun's ready.

 

I'd rather play it smart, accumulate depth with veteran minor league signings and rely on the scouting that you pay for that tells you things like Garrett Richards and Kole Calhoun should be fine.

 

I'm gonna go out on a limb here and claim something super-bold.  Spending 5 million on Chris Capuano will not be the difference between the Angels making the playoffs in 2014 and not making them.    

Edited February 1, 2014 by ScottyA_MWAH

[Angel Oracle]

Yes but if we end up with the same Blanton Happy Meal toy it won't be fun.

Blanton = that Quarter Pounder that didn't change color for a year on the person's window sill.

[tdawg87]

The Angels flushing 5 million down the toilet on Capuano when he is not a better pitcher than Skaggs just because you're worried Weaver's going to get hurt or Richards will be ineffective would be the equivalent of spending unnecessary money on Nelson Cruz because you think Josh Hamilton might tank it again and you aren't sure Kole Calhoun's ready.

 

I'd rather play it smart, accumulate depth with veteran minor league signings and rely on the scouting that you pay for that tells you things like Garrett Richards and Kole Calhoun should be fine.

 

I'm gonna go out on a limb here and claim something super-bold.  Spending 5 million on Chris Capuano will not be the difference between the Angels making the playoffs in 2014 and not making them.    

 

He isn't a better pitcher than Skaggs, but I don't see how that is relevant. If he replaces Skaggs in the rotation, then Skaggs moves ahead of Mulder and Blanton in the depth chart. This is very important. If not, he goes to the pen and becomes an emergency starter. Either way, he gives the Angels another option in the rotation. One that isn't a questionable Mark Mulder who hasn't pitched in 6 years, or.....Joe Blanton.

 

As for your Weaver/Richards comment, come on now. You know that spending on pitching for depth is not even remotely comparable to buying Nelson Cruz. For one, Cruz is going to make a lot more than 5 million (which is basically pennies in today's market). It's not about "being worried" about Weaver getting hurt. It's about knowing that at some point this season, just like every season before, one of the pitchers in the rotation will hit the DL. That will likely cost 4-5 starts right there. Add in all the day-to-day crap and the potential for another pitcher or two to land on the DL at some point in the season, and Doc's "30 starts" is pretty reasonable. Having more options to cover those 30 starts is a good thing.

[Brent Maguire]

Scotty, which veteran minor leaguers are you signing then?

It's hard to find guys who are willing to accept a role in the minors

[jshep]

Ya, tdawg pretty much summed up what I was gonna say.

 

And as a side note on the Cruz/Capuano analogy which I don't really think works either, if Nelson Cruz wasn't attached to a draft pick AND was going to sign a cheap 1-year deal that still allowed the team to address their other needs, I would probably consider signing him as well.

[jshep]

Scotty, which veteran minor leaguers are you signing then?

It's hard to find guys who are willing to accept a role in the minors

 

Yeah, looking at MLBTR's list I'm not seeing much there as far as guys who would seem likely to actually accept a minor league assignment:

 

Bronson Arroyo (37)

Erik Bedard (35)

A.J. Burnett (37)

Chris Capuano (35)

Odrisamer Despaigne (27)

Jon Garland (34)

Tommy Hanson (27)

Aaron Harang (36)

Ubaldo Jimenez (30)

Jair Jurrjens (28)

Jeff Karstens (31)

Paul Maholm (32)

Jason Marquis (35)

Jeff Niemann (31)

Roy Oswalt (35)

Clayton Richard (30)

Ervin Santana (31)

Johan Santana (34)

Joe Saunders (33)

Jake Westbrook (36)

Jerome Williams (32)

Suk-Min Yoon (27)

Barry Zito (36)

Edited February 1, 2014 by jshep