Harper v. Trout

[Angelsjunky]

His discipline will develop and I think he'll be walking 90+ times a year eventually. I agree that he won't hit .300 as consistently as Trout, but I see Harper as a .290-.315 guy, while Trout is more of a .315-.340 guy.

[Halos of Anaheim]

Wouldn't it scare you if Trout DOES improve consistently from now until his prime (27-28) like a normal 22 year old does? I mean by then..he could be doing the impossible (he's doing it now, but the REAL impossible).

 

I don't even want to put a roof on Trout's ceiling honestly. 

[Angelsjunky]

Yeah, its very possible. I mean, there are three possibilities, right? That he improves, stays the same, or declines. I think it very unlikely that he declines over the next few years and think he'll continue putting up 9+ fWAR seasons into his late 20s. The question for me is two-fold:

 

- How long will he keep his speed, and thus retain his baserunning and defensive value?

- Will his bat continue to develop?

 

The best-case scenario is that he is a freak of nature like Rickey Henderson and keeps his speed into his 30s and his bat continues to develop. If both of these happen, he has a good chance of ending up as one of the very greatest center fielders of all time, along with Cobb, Mantle and Mays.

 

The worst-case scenario (barring injury) is that his defensive losses in 2013 were not a blip on the radar, nor simply due to switching positions, but a sign of things to come. Trout will not be able to retain his speed and lean muscle mass and within a year or two will drop a notch or two, and still remain an elite, but mortal, player - more in the 7-8 WAR range.

 

The middle ground is that his speed gradually, but slowly, declines, but his bat improves incrementally so he retains similar value into his late 20s, then further decline.

 

Either way, I just can't see a realistic scenario where he isn't a Hall of Famer. Even if he only plays through his age 35 season and averages 5 WAR per year, he'll end up with about 100 WAR for his career (70 is probable Hall of Fame, 85 or so is definite).

[The Ghost of Bob Starr]

We didn't talk about this enough in 2012 or 2013.  Let's kick off 2014 by talking about it again.  

 

Very under-appreciated post.

 

Someone dragged out the dead horse and the old sticks again. 

[Hollyw00d]

At the same time. People who thought because Harper put up a great WAR at 19, that he'd match trout's WAR at 20 were bigger idiots. There was a shit ton of harper fans that made that argument.

With that being said, his only real concern seems to be staying healthy. He's a great player.

yup, if I had a dollar for every prediction that Harper would be better than trout in 2013 I'd be blanton-rich

[Troll Daddy]

It's fun to watch these two super stars play the game. Trout is surely a notch above Harper but baseball is a funny game.

Angels and Nationals need to make the playoffs .., otherwise their efforts seem a little empty.

[Hollyw00d]

No, their teammates need to not s*** the bed in April, may, and June. Both guys are pulling their weight, Harper has played really well when healthy

[Ohtaniland]

It's fun to watch these two super stars play the game. Trout is surely a notch above Harper but baseball is a funny game.

Angels and Nationals need to make the playoffs .., otherwise their efforts seem a little empty.

 

Ernie Banks agrees.

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/leaders/leaders_most_gamesnops.shtml

[DW711]

Maybe (for now, at least)...the better question would be...

 

Who would you want more...Harper or Machado?

[Angel Oracle]

I just want to clone the Halos scout that found Trout in the baseball hotbed of NJ.

[Angel Oracle]

Maybe (for now, at least)...the better question would be...

Who would you want more...Harper or Machado?

Even with the late season injury, Machado

Dude is the new Brooks Robinson.

Edited December 28, 2013 by Angel Oracle

[Brent Maguire]

Harper> Machado for me.

Both will be great players no doubt. Machado was very fun to watch last year though. He's one of my favorite players in baseball.

[edgur1995]

A Nationals v. Angels World Series would be EPIC!

[Punk]

Puig>

[AngelsAndRamsFan]

Puig>

Speaking of him...

@billplunkettocr: Sound familiar? #Dodgers Yasiel Puig reportedly arrested for driving 110 mph on I-75 in Florida http://t.co/QcjrIStoWV

[Brent Maguire]

A Nationals v. Angels World Series would be EPIC!

Let's focus on making the playoffs first!

[DW711]

Even with the late season injury, Machado

Dude is the new Brooks Robinson.

 

It's close...I don't know.

[AngelsLakersFan]

Wouldn't it scare you if Trout DOES improve consistently from now until his prime (27-28) like a normal 22 year old does? I mean by then..he could be doing the impossible (he's doing it now, but the REAL impossible).

 

I don't even want to put a roof on Trout's ceiling honestly. 

 

I honestly don't think it's possible for him to seriously improve. Players tend to learn the game through constant practice, they tend to bulk up with age in their mid twenties and they start to lose their physical prowess. Trout is already quite bulky, and he's already improved his plate discipline to the point that he has lead the AL in walks. His speed is slowly going to decline, and it might already have started since he looked a step slower last year. 

 

Trout's insane level of performance is specifically because he has combined traditional 'old player skills' like power, and patience, with insane amounts of natural talent all at such a young age that he can display the speed, defense and base running skills associated with young players that typically don't have a bat ready for MLB.

 

I think next season will end up being the best season of Trout's long career. I'd predict something truly crazy like 12 WAR, an insane batting average, more power, just as many walks, and the same level of defense we've come to expect from him. He'll follow that up with an amazing, long peak full of 6-10 WAR seasons into his early 30's.

Edited December 29, 2013 by AngelsLakersFan

[Halos of Anaheim]

I honestly don't think it's impossible for him to seriously improve. Players tend to learn the game through constant practice, they tend to bulk up with age in their mid twenties and they start to lose their physical prowess. Trout is already quite bulky, and he's already improved his plate discipline to the point that he has lead the AL in walks. His speed is slowly going to decline, and it might already have started since he looked a step slower last year. 

 

Trout's insane level of performance is specifically because he has combined traditional 'old player skills' like power, and patience, with insane amounts of natural talent all at such a young age that he can display the speed, defense and base running skills associated with young players that typically don't have a bat ready for MLB.

 

I think next season will end up being the best season of Trout's long career. I'd predict something truly crazy like 12 WAR, an insane batting average, more power, just as many walks, and the same level of defense we've come to expect from him. He'll follow that up with an amazing, long peak full of 6-10 WAR seasons into his early 30's.

Agreed with this, but Trout will have to seriously slump/have some injuries to ever be a 6 WAR player in his 20s. He could literally get 6 WAR in his sleep, and that isn't a joke. He does so much that he'll always be in the top 3-5 in the AL in WAR imo.