Nolan the Weak

[TroutBaseball]

From Sam Miller

https://open.substack.com/pub/pebblehunting/p/how-much-is-strength-worth?r=udsyc&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=email

 

Six weeks after the Angels drafted Nolan Schanuel last summer, they promoted him to the majors. It was the fastest promotion for a position player in 45 years. The results have been mixed and raised interesting questions of whether he was rushed, whether he’s good, etc.

You probably have a mental model for how a player who essentially skips all the minors leagues would fail. This guy would be flailing at breaking balls outside the zone, probably late on quality fastballs, he’d be making bad swing decisions, with too many strikeouts and not enough walks. That’s not Schanuel. His chase rate is one of the league’s lowest, his contact rate is among the league’s highest, SEAGER loves him, and according to MLB’s newest bat-tracking stats he squares up baseballs more often than almost any hitter in the game. We’re talking truly exceptional here: Schanuel has the league’s second-highest “squared-up” rate on swings, a spot behind Luis Arráez, a spot ahead of Juan Soto.

Schanuel just doesn’t hit the ball hard. Despite being 6-foot-4 and 220 pounds, despite playing a position (first base) that typically demands power hitting, despite squaring up baseballs at elite rates, Schanuel produces less force than essentially any hitter in the league. In the past two years, only 18 batters have failed to hit at least one baseball 107 mph. Only six have failed to hit a ball 106 mph. Only three have failed to hit a ball 105. Schanuel has never hit a ball 104. It’s possible he can’t?

I’m not going to try to solve the riddle of Schanuel here, or tell you what to think of him. This just sparked my curiosity on a Schanuel-relevant question: How much is strength worth? What if you took a hitter with a great approach, like Schanuel, and made him exactly 2 mph stronger? On the day that I did all the querying that follows, Schanuel was hitting .237/.315/.333, despite all sorts of excellent hitting technique. What, according to Statcast, would he have been hitting if he were physically stronger? That was my question. 

So I got every batted ball Schanuel had hit—there were 94 at that point—along with Statcast’s expected batting average (xBA) and expected weighted on-base average (xwOBA, an all-in-one offensive value measure). These are based on launch angle (hit how high?) and exit velocity (hit how fast?) but not direction (hit where?). (You can read more explanation of how the expected stats are calculated here.)

Then I got the xBA and the xwOBAs for balls hit at exactly that launch angle and 2 mph harder.

So, consider this fly ball that Nolan Schanuel hit: 

That has an expected batting average of .260 and an expected wOBA of .334. It’s not terrible contact, but it has to be hit down the line, or in an extreme hitter’s park, or on an extreme hitter’s day, to get over the outfielder’s head. Otherwise, as when Schanuel hit it this year, it’s routine. 

But if you add just 2 mph, like in this otherwise identical fly ball hit by Jared Walsh in the same ballpark one year earlier, 

now it’s a home run! That one was, at least. In the aggregate, that launch angle with [Schanuel + 2 mph] exit velocity has an expected batting average of .417, and an expected wOBA of .601. Hit that ball at that launch angle on every at-bat and you’ll end up with a better wOBA than Barry Bonds ever had. Over the past four years, batters who’ve hit the Schanuel fly ball have slugged .694; batters who’ve hit the [Schanuel + 2 mph] fly ball have slugged 1.188. 

From that you’d conclude that 2 mph makes a huge difference, and on precisely that fly ball it does. But I’ve set you up. It turns out that 2 mph actually doesn’t change as much as I’d assumed. Partly this is because of what’s known among Statcasters as the donut hole—the range of exit velocities where hitting a fly ball harder makes it more likely to get caught. Here’s a poorly hit Schanuel fly ball, with an xBA of .750:

And here’s a slightly less poorly hit [Schanuel + 2 mph] fly ball, which—because it carried a few extra feet to the outfielder—had an xBA of just .491.

So, it goes both ways. Still, in the aggregate, harder is generally better, and now we can say exactly how much better: 

Schanuel’s contact: 

• All balls: .303 xBA, .313 xWOBA

• Balls hit in the air: .401 xBA, .427 xWOBA

• Balls hit on the ground: .154 xBA, .138 xWOBA

[Schanuel + 2 mph] contact:

• All balls: .316 xBA, .338 xWOBA

• Balls hit in the air: .413 xBA, .460 xWOBA

• Balls hit on the ground: .168 xBA, .151 xWOBA

That’s not nothing. It would lift him from the 33rd percentile of all hitters this year to, roughly, a league-average one, though not for his position. It’s not enough to make him a star.

But, then, Schanuel’s contact isn’t just 2 mph weaker than the rest of the league’s. He’s arguably, literally the weakest hitter in the league now that the 5-foot-6 second baseman Tony Kemp has been relegated to Triple-A. The average big leaguer’s max velocity over the past two years is 7 mph harder than Schanuel has ever hit a baseball.

So let’s add 5 mph.

Unsurprisingly, this changes a lot more, and not just because more of those “routine” fly balls become routine home runs. His relationship with the infield starts to change. His batting average on groundballs goes up almost 40 points. And here’s a Schanuel line drive that the shortstop caught: 

Really good swing. An expected batting average of .720. Do that twice a game and Schanuel, like Luis Arraez and Mark Grace, might have an interesting career. But add 5 mph to it—without changing the launch angle at all—and it ceases to be remotely catchable by the infield, with an xBA of .900: 

An extra 5 mph also opens up the opposite field gaps in a way that, for Schanuel, they aren’t open now. Here’s Schanuel hitting a fly ball the other way:

And here’s [Schanuel + 5 mph] hitting an otherwise identical fly ball the other way:

Both are outs, but it’s obvious that the second one is much more likely to go for extra bases, especially in certain ballparks or on certain nights. Schanuel’s fly ball to the left-field gap has an xBA of .163. Adding 2 mph hardly changes that. But adding 5 mph makes it a really dangerous swing: xBA of .345.

In the aggregate, 5 mph of extra strength—distributed equally on every batted ball— bring Schanuel from around the 33rd percentile of all hitters to around the 75th percentile.

Schanuel’s contact: 

• All balls: .303 xBA, .313 xWOBA

• Balls hit in the air: .401 xBA, .427 xWOBA

• Balls hit on the ground: .154 xBA, .138 xWOBA

[Schanuel + 5 mph] contact:

• All balls: .344 xBA, .392 xwOBA

• Balls hit in the air: .433 xBA, .533 xwOBA

• Balls hit on the ground: .191 xBA, .173 xWOBA

You didn’t have to be a genius to know that “bad exit velocity” is a direct result of “slow swing.” But the bat-speed metrics that Statcast released earlier this month help illuminate the Schanuel situation a bit.

Schanuel’s bat is very slow. It’s the third-slowest among qualified hitters. It could be that, relative to his extremely strong peers, Schanuel just isn’t as physically strong. (I’m reminded of Chris Young, who for a while was both the tallest pitcher in baseball and the slowest-throwing pitcher in baseball; size isn’t destiny, and not every good athlete has 99.99th-percentile muscle fibers.)

But Schanuel’s swing is also very short. You can see it in this old video clip from his college days—he starts his hands high, right above his head, and brings them down but hardly back at all, creating almost no load.

That’s the challenge with asking “How much is strength worth?” Nolan Schanuel, I think we can say at this point, isn’t Stanton strong. He wouldn’t produce Stantonian exit velocities no matter what his swing looked like. But that incredibly short swing up there is a choice, and it has its benefits. It’s presumably what helps him do well on every offensive metric except for what happens after he puts the ball in play. It’s presumably also a cause of his biggest weakness—his weakness.

So, “what if you took a hitter with a great approach, like Schanuel, and made him exactly 2 mph stronger?” Well, you might not have a hitter with a great approach, like Schanuel. Is that swing why Nolan Schanuel is in the majors, or is that swing why Nolan Schanuel disappoints? No resolutions today. Hitting is hard, and it doesn’t get any less hard when you make it more abstract.

[PattyD22]

God lord, that’s a lot of reading and data points to just say he was rushed and wasn’t ready.  He was brought up out of necessity, of which has been discussed in these boards many times.

Dont necessarily like the title of the thread, though but interesting read.

[Angelsjunky]

He's a weird hitter. But the bottom line is that since April 17, he's hit .301/.339/.434 in 123 PA. What I don't understand is: Where have the walks gone? He's got a 5.7 BB% during that time, and just 13% K-rate. Not sure what's going on, but it looks like he's just trying to make contact. Hopefully the walks will go up, because his plate discipline is (or was) his best skill.

[Duren, Duren]

The stereotype for first basement has always been about power. And often linked with size. And slow foot speed. Defense varied. Picture Boog Powell for instance. 

Or expansion Angel "Big Klu" with his cut off sleeves,intended to intimidate pitchers. 

https://baseball.fandom.com/wiki/Ted_Kluszewski

First base also  was often where older players were parked when all they could do basically was show some power. 

Obviously this is a broad generalization with many exceptions. Especially now with the DH filling that purpose as well. 

Conversely, second base and shortstop were positions where power was much rarer. Defense and on base ability being a priority. Exceptions of course  like Joe Morgan and Cal Ripken. Who also happened to be quality defenders.

If Schanuel played anywhere but first his minimal power production would maybe be a minor thing as long as his other offensive metrics were solid. 

As well place in the batting order is a factor. Leadoff men are supposed to get on base not necessarily hit homers. Not very common to see first basement lead off. 

The Angels seem to have accepted him for who he is rather than try to change him. That would require more heavy duty training and probably changes in his swing. As well, if he gains some power he probably doesn't focus on just on base priorities for his at bats. More swinging for the fences and less discipline maybe. And doubtful he would still lead off. 

Interesting hypotheticals, but it would take at least another off season of strength  training, tweaking his swing, and adapting to new expectations. 

 

[totdprods]

10 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

He's a weird hitter. But the bottom line is that since April 17, he's hit .301/.339/.434 in 123 PA. What I don't understand is: Where have the walks gone? He's got a 5.7 BB% during that time, and just 13% K-rate. Not sure what's going on, but it looks like he's just trying to make contact. Hopefully the walks will go up, because his plate discipline is (or was) his best skill.

I think he’s just trying to be more aggressive and make more contact. Savant indicates the discipline is still there, just isn’t translating to above-average walks yet - and he’s still walking right at league average. I imagine some pitchers are attacking him too because why wouldn’t they at this point. 

He’s got a very unique offensive profile regardless so I’m not going to overthink anything with him yet. I’d hope that as he gets more familiar with the league, and if he keeps hitting the league becomes more familiar with him, we see the walks start going up. I’m hoping he quits chasing the HR as it didn’t do him any good so far, and as a result he’s starting to lost these soft, easy HRs. The Arraez and Grace comps are seeming pretty apt actually. If anything I’d like to see his defense shape up but the guys only had like 200 pro at-bats or something. Overall I’m encouraged by what he’s done though.
 

[Dtwncbad]

Anybody know if there is any difference between his average exit velocity when he is behind in the count versus ahead in the count?

[BTH]

Expecting Schanuel to become a power hitter is an unrealistic expectation at this point.

I think he just needs to lean into what he’s good at.

What I’d like to see from him the rest of this season is: more consistency, more walks, better 1B defense.

A large part of the problem is he isn’t fast and he’s not playing a premium defensive position, so his value gets diminished.

But if he can be a .380 OBP guy with a slightly above average OPS and good defense, I’ll take it as a leadoff guy.

[BTH]

4 minutes ago, Dtwncbad said:

Anybody know if there is any difference between his average exit velocity when he is behind in the count versus ahead in the count?

Ahead: 88.3 mph

Behind: 85.7 mph

[totdprods]

Schanuel and Arraez have almost identical percentile rankings on Savant. Neither are great defensively or on the basepaths or with bat speed or exit velocity. 

Zero complaints if Schanuel just becomes Arraez-esque going forward. 

[Angel Oracle]

29 minutes ago, BTH said:

Ahead: 88.3 mph

Behind: 85.7 mph

No doubt due to protecting the plate more when behind in the count?

[Angel Oracle]

9 minutes ago, totdprods said:

Schanuel and Arraez have almost identical percentile rankings on Savant. Neither are great defensively or on the basepaths or with bat speed or exit velocity. 

Zero complaints if Schanuel just becomes Arraez-esque going forward. 

Arreaz does hit a lot more doubles (30+ each season since 2022, and on pace for it in 2024).

[m0nkey]

What I got out of skimming the first half of the article

[BTH]

14 minutes ago, Angel Oracle said:

No doubt due to protecting the plate more when behind in the count?

Interestingly, his swing length is pretty much the same behind the count (6.7) as it is ahead of the count (6.6).

 

[BTH]

14 minutes ago, Angel Oracle said:

Arreaz does hit a lot more doubles (30+ each season since 2022, and on pace for it in 2024).

And he has faked it at some other spots (2B/3B/LF)

[ScottM]

1 hour ago, Angelsjunky said:

He's a weird hitter. But the bottom line is that since April 17, he's hit .301/.339/.434 in 123 PA. What I don't understand is: Where have the walks gone? He's got a 5.7 BB% during that time, and just 13% K-rate. Not sure what's going on, but it looks like he's just trying to make contact. Hopefully the walks will go up, because his plate discipline is (or was) his best skill.

The walks are 100% the problem. I don't really care if he slugs under .400 this year but he has to be getting on base like 35% of the time.

[totdprods]

34 minutes ago, Angel Oracle said:

Arreaz does hit a lot more doubles (30+ each season since 2022, and on pace for it in 2024).

Schanuel’s 162 game pace is 11 doubles, 18 homers. Arraez’ career average is 33 doubles, 3 triples, 7 homers. Schanuel is already halfway to Arraez’ career high of 10 HR. 

I imagine they’ll land pretty similarly…Schanuel may be more of a 30 double/10 HR guy, Arraez more like a 40 double/5 HR guy.

Arraez also had about 2000 PA between minors and winter leagues before his debut. Schanuel had 100 minor league PA, and 800 college PA. Let’s not forget that difference either.

Edited May 22 by totdprods

[Springs Halo]

Rod Carew hit a total of 92 home runs in his career.  

[Dtwncbad]

1 hour ago, BTH said:

 

Expecting Schanuel to become a power hitter is an unrealistic expectation at this point.

 

And you can also say assuming a guy that turned 22 in Feb won’t develop additional power is grossly premature at this point.

[Slegnaac]

TLDR

Nolan Ryan was anything but weak.

[Dtwncbad]

A response to this thread in general. . .  The amount of power off Schanuel’s bat just isn’t among the problems to be concerned with today.   The guy is 22 and hasn’t even had a proper chance to develop yet.  Every other part of the team gets the “it’s a development year” and a “let them play and develop” pass for 2024 but Nolan is tagged as “Weak”?

I don’t know.  Seems off to me.  If the tone for 2024 is let the players develop then let the players develop.

[PattyD22]

2 minutes ago, Dtwncbad said:

A response to this thread in general. . .  The amount of power off Schanuel’s bat just isn’t among the problems to be concerned with today.   The guy is 22 and hasn’t even had a proper chance to develop yet.  Every other part of the team gets the “it’s a development year” and a “let them play and develop” pass for 2024 but Nolan is tagged as “Weak”?

I don’t know.  Seems off to me.  If the tone for 2024 is let the players develop then let the players develop.

Exactly, @Dtwncbad.  That was my point earlier.  You expressed it more eloquently than I.

[SlappyUtilityMIF]

2 hours ago, totdprods said:

Schanuel’s 162 game pace is 11 doubles, 18 homers. Arraez’ career average is 33 doubles, 3 triples, 7 homers. Schanuel is already halfway to Arraez’ career high of 10 HR. 

I imagine they’ll land pretty similarly…Schanuel may be more of a 30 double/10 HR guy, Arraez more like a 40 double/5 HR guy.

Arraez also had about 2000 PA between minors and winter leagues before his debut. Schanuel had 100 minor league PA, and 800 college PA. Let’s not forget that difference either.

Dude is NOT hitting 18 Bombs this year!! 10-13-15 Max this year! As soon as someone around here throws out 18 Bombs suddenly 20-25-30 comes out then the next thing you know Schnope is hitting 40-50!...

I don't care what any website or analytics state.

 

Some people in here just Juan "Frosted Tips" Rivera every MF'ing dude on this team every year...

[SlappyUtilityMIF]

1 hour ago, Dtwncbad said:

And you can also say assuming a guy that turned 22 in Feb won’t develop additional power is grossly premature at this point.

Power is always the last developed skill set, as it is lift... Sorry. Usually, it's gap to gap power that a player comes in with = extra base hits that could project to lift as the player adds weight and matures.

[Blarg]

Schanuel has the speed of Albert Pujols on his weightless treadmill. So he better develop some power hitting because he won't be running any faster. 

[James]

6 minutes ago, Blarg said:

Schanuel has the speed of Albert Pujols on his weightless treadmill. So he better develop some power hitting because he won't be running any faster.