Re-assessing Mike Trout's Career Greatness (by WAR)

[Angelsjunky]

Introduction: A Fallen Angel (Sort of)

Remember way back after the 2019 season, when Trout just finished his age 27 season with 71.4 fWAR, the highest total through age 27 of any position player in baseball history? It was reasonable to dream big: Trout had been, through 2019, the best player through age 27 in baseball history, and a top 5 WAR finish (say, 140 WAR) was reasonable to consider. Some even pondered the possibility of how he might get to #1 of all time.

Since then, well, the fit hit the shan. In the last four seasons, Trout has produced just 13.7 WAR, about the equivalent of 1.5 peak Trout seasons over four. Where after his age 27 season he was #1 ahead of Ty Cobb and Mickey Mantle, now he's #8 through age 31 with 85.1 fWAR, between Mel Ott and Lou Gehrig, and far behind #1 Ty Cobb at 104.4 fWAR.

Even so, that puts him in good company, with the caveat that Ott and Gehrig--and most players above him--remained healthy and productive into their mid-30s (though Gehrig retired at 36 due to his illness). But Trout's 85.1 WAR through 2023 puts him at #30 all-time, still quite an accomplishment for a guy who has only played two seasons in his 30s. With just +6.2 WAR, he'll be in the top 25; with +16.4 more, he'll enter the top 20. In other words, even in a worst-case scenario where Trout trickles out another 16.4 WAR over his remaining seven years, he's going to be among the top 20 players all-time in WAR.

But let's go a bit further and look at possible paths forward.

Projections: High, Moderate, Low

First of all, a basic assumption for the chart below: Trout's decline will be linear; meaning, he'll be better in 2024 than 2025, better in 2025 than 2026, etc. This will almost certainly not be the case, with year-to-year ups and down and various injuries, but for the sake of simplicity, I'm assuming a linear decline. But you can just as easily swap years around, if with a similar overall trajectory.

For instance, in the following chart, the High projection has him at 8.0, 7.5, and 7.0 WAR over the next three years. That could just as easily be 8.5, 6.0, and 8.0. 

Again, these are estimates. I would say a Low would be anything below about 110 WAR; moderate would be 110 to about 130, high 130+. My mid-range would be around 115-120, meaning I think Trout is most likely to produce 30-35 more WAR over the course of his career.

What is required for each? For the High Projection, he needs to bounce back and avoid major injuries, at least for the most part. It assumes his skill set is intact, or at least very close to his peak. It doesn't require a true return to peak level, just a return to form for a year or two, and a smooth decline after. Meaning, a "reasonable renaissance" - but not a Maysian or Aaronian (let alone Bondsian, ahem) late career peak.

The Mid projection assumes his skills are still elite, if not quite what they were. It accounts for some injuries, even significant ones, but better luck overall than the last three years. 

The Low projection assumes he's not only significantly declined, but will struggle with injuries: major and minor, preventable and freak. It is basically what we can expect if 2021-23 is the new norm.

What Do You Think, Angelsjunky?

Well, I have no idea. I feel reasonably certain that Trout will finish in the broad range of 100-130 WAR, and would put his likeliest 10-WAR range as 110-120 or so. But all of this can change quickly, depending upon what happens even in just one year, 2024. If Trout bounces back with a healthy 8 WAR season, then I feel more confident about the moderate projection, at the least, and will have glimmers of hope that he could surpass that. But if he has yet another injury-plagued season and plays less than 100 games again and <5 WAR, then the low projection starts looking more likely. 

So a reasonable projection for his career WAR total is an ever-moving target. Four years ago it was reasonable--if optimistic--to dream of 140 WAR. Now surpassing 120 looks optimistic.

All of this means that a high projection puts Trout at around #7 all-time, a moderate #12, and a low #19. Not bad, whatever way he finally lands. But...not the top 5 projection (~140 WAR) that seemed reasonable after 2019.

Or we can see this here:

Addendum: JAWS

For those not familiar with it, JAWS (Jaffe WAR Score system) is a stat created by Jay Jaffe that you can find on Baseball Reference, which averages out career WAR (the B-R version) and their best seven seasons (B7), to give a balance of career and peak. Jaffe uses this as a barometer for Hall of Fame eligibility, but one could argue that it is also a more accurate measurement of greatness as it emphasizes career peak.

Right now Trout's JAWS is 75.1, which is 5th best among center fielders and 25th best among all position players. He can improve that in two ways: One, continue to accrue career WAR; his JAWs will go up by half of whatever his further career WAR will be; two, having a season (or two) better than one of his top 7. Right now his 7th best season, according to rWAR, is 7.7, so anything above that improves his JAWS.

He's 12.4 behind the #4 centerfielder Mickey Mantle, which means that even if he doesn't have a season above 7.7, he only needs 25 more career rWAR to pass Mantle. He's unlikely to catch Mays (114.8), Cobb (110.2), although has a very slim chance of catching Speaker (98.8) if he has a true career renaissance and adds another 48 WAR or so and/or another peak season or two.

Among all position players, his low-range projection gets him to #15 or 16 all-time; his mid-range gets him to #12; and his high-range gets him to #7...so similar to WAR totals.

He has a very outside chance of joining the "100 JAWS Club," which includes only six position players: Ruth (123.5), Bonds (117.7), Mays (114.8), Cobb (109.9), Aaron (101.7), and Hornsby (100.3).

Chances are, though, he finishes in the "90 JAWS Club," which is still rather exclusive, with only 13 players.

As a final gift, here's a chart of the 70+ JAWS Club (position players only), color-coded by primary position:

And if you're wondering, the top active players--position and pitcher--by JAWs (40 or higher):

1. Mike Trout 75.1
2. Justin Verlander 65.5
3. Clayton Kershaw 64.8
4. Zack Greinke 62.7
5. Max Scherzer 61.2
6. Mookie Betts 59.4
7. Miguel Cabrera 55.9
8. Joey Votto 55.6
9. Paul Goldschmidt 53.4
10. Evan Longoria 50.2
11. Nolan Arenado 49.4
12. Manny Machado 48.7
13. Freddie Freeman 47.1
14. Jose Altuve 44.6
15. JOsh Donaldson 44.3
16. Andrew McCutchen 43.5
17. Jose Ramirez 42.9
18. Chris Sale 42.9
19. Jacob DeGrom 42.3
20. Bryce Harper 41.5
21. Aaron Judge 41.3
22. Adam Wainwright 40.5
23. Francisco Lindor 40.0
24. Marcus Semien 39.9

While it depends on position, as a general rule 40 JAWS gets you in the conversation for the Hall of Fame; most players above 50 are in the Hall but there are quite a few who aren't, and 60 is a virtual lock, barring extenuating circumstances. Most of the players above 50 WAR and not in the Hall are either controversial (steroids, betting, off-field antics), older 19th century players, or a lot of second and third basemen, who are particularly snubbed for some reason. I believe that Bobby Grich (58.7) has the highest JAWS of non-controversial 20th-21st century players. 

 

 

Edited September 26, 2023 by Angelsjunky

[Deek]

Interesting... Nice work AJ...