Why a winning record matters (this year)

[Angelsjunky]

As a general rule, once the Angels are out, I don't care that much about their final record. There's even a side of me that wants to see them pile up losses, if only to get a higher draft pick - but also out of a kind of spitefulness towards them for failing once again.

But...this year it matters, on a few levels. While they're not technically out of contention, it is a long-shot. I mean maybe, but putting that aside for a moment, let's talk about the importance of reaching 82 in the win column.

One, they haven't had a winning season since 2015. That's (and I'll write it out): 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, and 2022. Only one other team, the Royals, has a losing streak that bad. Having a winning record isn't merely a pyrrhic victory - it ends a losing streak that signals that we may be heading in the right direction.

Two, Perry Minasian needs to show Arte Moreno--and the fans--that he can move the needle in the right direction. Eppler couldn't, and Minasian hasn't so far. While there are real and valid excuses this year, ultimately the results are what matters most. If Perry can't move the needle, then his job becomes at risk.

Three, and perhaps most importantly, Ohtani. "Look, Shohei, it is only 82 wins, but we're heading in the right direction. We went from 73 to 82 wins...next year with your help, we should be able to get to 90."

So it matters, maybe rather hugely. The fans need to see it, the players need to see it, Arte needs to see it, and Shohei needs to see it.

Edited August 10, 2023 by Angelsjunky

[jsnpritchett]

"Rather hugely" seems like an exaggeration. I still don't see any reason why any rational person would look at an 82-80 record any differently than they would an 80-82 or a 78-84, etc one. It's all the same: mediocrity. 

[Angelsjunky]

15 minutes ago, jsnpritchett said:

"Rather hugely" seems like an exaggeration. I still don't see any reason why any rational person would look at an 82-80 record any differently than they would an 80-82 or a 78-84, etc one. It's all the same: mediocrity. 

That's why I said "maybe." Perhaps "significantly" is more accurate than "maybe rather hugely."

I think there's a significant psychological impact. While year-to-year trajectories don't really mean much--what matters more is baseline talent--I think adding 10ish games to the win column and surpassing the .500 mark is important - for reasons I already explained. But I just want to (re)emphasize the psychological element, which is the connective tissue of the various factors.

[jsnpritchett]

Just now, Angelsjunky said:

That's why I said "maybe." Perhaps "significantly" is more accurate than "maybe rather hugely."

I think there's a significant psychological impact. While year-to-year trajectories don't really mean much--what matters more is baseline talent--I think adding 10ish games to the win column and surpassing the .500 mark is important - for reasons I already explained. But I just want to (re)emphasize the psychological element, which is the connective tissue of the various factors.

I personally think you're overstating the psychological impact of a marginally above .500 record on fans and/or players.  As I've said elsewhere, even if the team does miraculously end up above .500, there will still be a ton of question marks and roles to fill for next year and beyond--so I'm not sure that this year's record will tell us much one way or the other about the direction forward (as you acknowledge). So where does the psychological boost come from? I'm not buying it. 

[Angelsjunky]

22 minutes ago, jsnpritchett said:

I personally think you're overstating the psychological impact of a marginally above .500 record on fans and/or players.  As I've said elsewhere, even if the team does miraculously end up above .500, there will still be a ton of question marks and roles to fill for next year and beyond--so I'm not sure that this year's record will tell us much one way or the other about the direction forward (as you acknowledge). So where does the psychological boost come from? I'm not buying it. 

Think of it this way. You keep asking women out on a date and they keep refusing. Finally, the ninth one say "Sure." Even if the date doesn't go well or lead to a second date, that gives you a bit of a boost. It doesn't mean that the 10th will work out, but it breaks the rut of always being rejected.

 

[jsnpritchett]

5 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

Think of it this way. You keep asking women out on a date and they keep refusing. Finally, the ninth one say "Sure." Even if the date doesn't go well or lead to a second date, that gives you a bit of a boost. It doesn't mean that the 10th will work out, but it breaks the rut of always being rejected.

 

That is a terrible analogy. 

[Torridd]

I agree Junky. An increase in wins will still be an improvement especially with all the adversity this year. Maybe Ohtani will think, "The team won this many with all these injuries. What's the chances that we can be this hurt in 2024?" 

[VladdyforHOF]

23 minutes ago, jsnpritchett said:

I personally think you're overstating the psychological impact of a marginally above .500 record on fans and/or players.  As I've said elsewhere, even if the team does miraculously end up above .500, there will still be a ton of question marks and roles to fill for next year and beyond--so I'm not sure that this year's record will tell us much one way or the other about the direction forward (as you acknowledge). So where does the psychological boost come from? I'm not buying it. 

How would finishing above .500 be considered miraculous? They're .500 now, so playing 1 game over the rest of the way puts them over...

Now, jumping over Toronto/Boston/NY/Seattle for the 3rd WC? That would certainly be miraculous.

It's postseason or bust, I agree. I really hope this isn't a clubhouse that will be like "you know what guys, we didn't make the postseason, but we did have a winning season, so let's take solace in that."

I feel like Ohtani has already made up his mind on whether he wants to stay here or not. If he still needs to see more, there's no chance a few extra wins persuades him.

[Torridd]

You guys are tough.

[jsnpritchett]

4 minutes ago, VladdyforHOF said:

How would finishing above .500 be considered miraculous? They're .500 now, so playing 1 game over the rest of the way puts them over...

 

Just looking at the remaining schedule, it seems unlikely.  "Miraculous" was definitely me being hyperbolic.

[VladdyforHOF]

1 minute ago, Torridd said:

You guys are tough.

Being a fan of this team is tough. If it's not hard for you to stomach yet another season without playoffs, maybe you're just not that invested.

[VladdyforHOF]

Let's be realistic here.

My guess is Trout and O'Hoppe come back and they start playing pretty decent even with the tough remaining schedule, finishing with 85 or 86 wins.

But it doesn't end up being enough as at least one of TOR/BOS/NY/SEA finishes with 88-90 wins. I'm of course assuming that TB/BAL and HOU/TEX keep doing their current thing and keep the #1 and #2 WCs.

For the Angels to get in it would require not just one, or two, but a few teams to absolutely fold down the stretch. Is it possible? Yeah.

For fuck's sake, MLB keeps making it easier to sniff the postseason with these added WC's and they still can't get in.

If Ohtani's primary desire is postseason baseball, and he doesn't care about SoCal, his teammates, loyalty to the team that allowed him to be a TWP, staying relatively under the radar here, etc... then he's certainly gone. With how many teams can get in now he basically has a better chance going anywhere else.

[SoCalDucksFan]

You can't really extrapolate any improvement this year, to what's going to happen next year, and going forward, when they lose an amazing player like Ohtani.

Finishing above .500 would be great, but Shohei accounts for at the very least, several of those wins, and although they will try to somehow replace his #'s in the lineup, it's going to be tough maintaining any sort of momentum going into 2024.

[Duren, Duren]

Ohtani has been on the team six years. Longer than almost everyone else. He sees first hand how they operate. From ownership down to the bat boys. 

I'm sure he has a pretty comprehensive baseball mind and has processed a lot in those years. So his decision won't just be on a couple of wins above an arbitrary number. .500 looks better in the record books than being below. But there have many unexpected factors contributing to the numbers.

Ohtani more than anyone else would be able assess the talent level and understand the injury factor. So I doubt that the final number will be a decisive issue for him. Unless there is a huge winning or losing streak to finish the season. Then recency bias may kick in.

More importantly, he's been through different GMs and managers. Is he happy/optimistic about Perry and Nevin going forward? Or not? And feel they can create and keep a playoff window open for the next few years?

And how about relations with Arte? More on that side will be revealed when concrete numbers and terms are laid out in the bidding war a few months away. Will there be acrimony from either side? I doubt it publicly, but you never know what the thinking is privately. 

Bottom line. Ohtani has never experienced a winning or break even season. And he started this one immediately after leading his team to the WBC title. So the contrast must be part of his thinking. But does loyalty and optimism make enough of a difference? Assuming the contract is acceptable. 

Playing .500 would be a modest victory for team morale though beyond the Ohtani factor. With all the injuries and roster shuffling it would show a decent compete quality and perhaps potential for better things next year if Perry can work some magic. Even without Ohtani they still could be a wild card hopeful through other additions. After all, every single playoff race team now is doing it without Ohtani.

[Swordsman78]

4 hours ago, Angelsjunky said:

As a general rule, once the Angels are out, I don't care that much about their final record. There's even a side of me that wants to see them pile up losses, if only to get a higher draft pick - but also out of a kind of spitefulness towards them for failing once again.

But...this year it matters, on a few levels. While they're not technically out of contention, it is a long-shot. I mean maybe, but putting that aside for a moment, let's talk about the importance of reaching 82 in the win column.

One, they haven't had a winning season since 2015. That's (and I'll write it out): 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, and 2022. Only one other team, the Royals, has a losing streak that bad. Having a winning record isn't merely a pyrrhic victory - it ends a losing streak that signals that we may be heading in the right direction.

Two, Perry Minasian needs to show Arte Moreno--and the fans--that he can move the needle in the right direction. Eppler couldn't, and Minasian hasn't so far. While there are real and valid excuses this year, ultimately the results are what matters most. If Perry can't move the needle, then his job becomes at risk.

Three, and perhaps most importantly, Ohtani. "Look, Shohei, it is only 82 wins, but we're heading in the right direction. We went from 73 to 82 wins...next year with your help, we should be able to get to 90."

So it matters, maybe rather hugely. The fans need to see it, the players need to see it, Arte needs to see it, and Shohei needs to see it.

IMO this team will be fighting all the way for a winning record.   I have not seen any quit in the Angels over the past year.  Even during the last month of the 2022 season they were giving 100% on the field.

Maximum effort is all we can ask for, then let the baseball gods decide our fate.

 

[Dtwncbad]

4 hours ago, Angelsjunky said:

Think of it this way. You keep asking women out on a date and they keep refusing. Finally, the ninth one say "Sure." Even if the date doesn't go well or lead to a second date, that gives you a bit of a boost. It doesn't mean that the 10th will work out, but it breaks the rut of always being rejected.

 

I am lost.  I never had to ask nine times to get a date.  Wh-what the heck are you talking about?

[LaPalma]

I like the sentiment but I think it’s more important to focus on being healthy next year and re-signing Ohtani.  If Trout, Neto, etc are better off thoroughly healing until spring so be it.  

[LaPalma]

21 minutes ago, Dtwncbad said:

I am lost.  I never had to ask nine times to get a date.  Wh-what the heck are you talking about?

Depends on how high you aspire to.

[Swordsman78]

5 hours ago, jsnpritchett said:

I personally think you're overstating the psychological impact of a marginally above .500 record on fans and/or players.  As I've said elsewhere, even if the team does miraculously end up above .500, there will still be a ton of question marks and roles to fill for next year and beyond--so I'm not sure that this year's record will tell us much one way or the other about the direction forward (as you acknowledge). So where does the psychological boost come from? I'm not buying it. 

Will 161-1 satisfy you?

So tired of your "expecting perfection" every game BS.

Edited August 10, 2023 by Swordsman78

[Swordsman78]

1 hour ago, Dtwncbad said:

I am lost.  I never had to ask nine times to get a date.  Wh-what the heck are you talking about?

Lower standards = higher probability of success for some.

[jsnpritchett]

7 minutes ago, Swordsman78 said:

Will 161-1 satisfy you?

So tired of your "expecting perfection" every game BS.

Lol, what are you even talking about? 

[LaPalma]

17 minutes ago, Swordsman78 said:

Lower standards = higher probability of success for some.

Same thing I said.  “My cousin said she’d go to the prom with me!”

win?

[CaliAngel]

5 hours ago, Torridd said:

"What's the chances that we can be this hurt in 2024?" 

Based off how it's gone the past decade...

High chances. Very high. 

[Blarg]

48 minutes ago, Swordsman78 said:

Will 161-1 satisfy you?

So tired of your "expecting perfection" every game BS.

Honestly they are going to have to reach a little closer to perfection than Cron throwing away double play balls into the outfield to have any chance to reach the last Wild Card. At this point that is the best they can do and the worst they can do is play like they have been for the last 10 games and think they will make up ground.

Nobody is expecting perfection but they have to play better. If they don't then you're going to be unhappy with more than one person's opinion of the team's overall performance. And that will be on you, not them.

[Blarg]

46 minutes ago, jsnpritchett said:

Lol, what are you even talking about? 

Team spirit!