Gameday Thread (7/7/23): Angels @ Dodgers - Rendon still out but active

[DMVol]

1 hour ago, Jeff Fletcher said:

No

Won’t change under any circumstances?

[Jeff Fletcher]

12 minutes ago, DMVol said:

Won’t change under any circumstances?

Never say never. But if you're asking what I think they're going to do, I don't think they're going to trade him.

I think they feel they have a better chance of re-signing him than all of you do.

[Stradling]

1 minute ago, Jeff Fletcher said:

Never say never. But if you're asking what I think they're going to do, I don't think they're going to trade him.

I think they feel they have a better chance of re-signing him than all of you do.

Do you believe they have a better chance to re-sign him than the average AW fan?

[REDneck]

1 hour ago, Jeff Fletcher said:

No

 

15 minutes ago, DMVol said:

Won’t change under any circumstances?

NO! means NO!

Come on man!

[Jeff Fletcher]

28 minutes ago, Stradling said:

It worked.  But what does it mean?  Does it mean they swing the 12th most often on 0-0 pitches?  Or when they swing at 0-0 pitches they have the 12th highest OBA.

They have the 12th highest weighted OBA when they put an 0-0 pitch in play. 

wOBA is basically OBP, but weighted so hits and extra base hits count more than walks. I used it because that's what Trendon used.

I'm not sure it's the best stat to use in this situation because there are no walks. I think plain ol BA or SLG are probably just as good. They are 15th in BA and 13th in SLG. They are 12th in OPS.

As for the frequency of 0-0 swings, the Angels are tops in the majors at 34.6%. (The MLB average is 30.5%, though, so there's not a big difference between the most and least.)

They have put the first pitch in play in 11.1% of their PA's, which ranks 8th. (The MLB average is 10.7%)

Also, they rank 10th in most pitches per plate appearance at 3.94. (MLB average is 3.90)

Edited July 8, 2023 by Jeff Fletcher

[Jeff Fletcher]

10 minutes ago, Stradling said:

Do you believe they have a better chance to re-sign him than the average AW fan?

I believe they have a better chance to re-sign him than almost anyone earth. I've been saying 30 percent, although that was based on them at least contending all season, even if they don't make the playoffs. If this tailspin continues and play the last 2 months with no hope, those chances go down significantly.

Edited July 8, 2023 by Jeff Fletcher

[Stradling]

2 minutes ago, Jeff Fletcher said:

They have the 12th highest weighted OBA when they put an 0-0 pitch in play. 

wOBA is basically OBP, but weighted so hits count more than walks. I used it because that's what Trendon used.

I'm not sure it's the best stat to use in this situation because there are no walks. I think plain ol BA or SLG are probably just as good. They are 15th in BA and 13th in SLG.

As for the frequency of 0-0 swings, the Angels are tops in the majors at 34.6%. (The MLB average is 30.5%, though, so there's not a big difference between the most and least.)

They have put the first pitch in play in 11.1% of their PA's, which ranks 8th. (The MLB average is 10.7%)

Also, they rank 10th in most pitches per plate appearance at 3.94. (MLB average is 3.90)

@Swordsman78 here is some information on a topic we were discussing last night.  It’s just information, you can decide whether it means you are right or blarg was right.  My opinion is that there is more value in working yourself into a hitters count and making the pitcher work rather than give the pitcher quick innings.  Getting into a teams bullpen allows you to weaken that pen over the course of a 3 game series.  

[Angels 1961]

13 minutes ago, REDneck said:

 

NO! means NO!

Come on man!

Maybe u are right

[Jeff Fletcher]

7 minutes ago, Stradling said:

@Swordsman78 here is some information on a topic we were discussing last night.  It’s just information, you can decide whether it means you are right or blarg was right.  My opinion is that there is more value in working yourself into a hitters count and making the pitcher work rather than give the pitcher quick innings.  Getting into a teams bullpen allows you to weaken that pen over the course of a 3 game series.  

Relevant to that..

The Angels swing at 28.1% of pitches out of the zone, which is 15th. (Almost exactly the MLB average of 28.4%).

The fact that they are right in the middle in terms of chasing, but a little better than average in terms of P/PA, probably just means they're a little better than most teams at fouling off those pitches out of the zone that they should be taking, so they at least keep the PA alive.

[m0nkey]

Too many numbers on this page

 

[DMVol]

28 minutes ago, Jeff Fletcher said:

Never say never. But if you're asking what I think they're going to do, I don't think they're going to trade him.

I think they feel they have a better chance of re-signing him than all of you do.

I don’t disagree but I also think things could change if this bad streak continues for another 10 games or so. I also don’t think they will tip their hand until they have to, i.e. decide to explore trades. 

[BTH]

5 hours ago, Jeff Fletcher said:

Is @Trendon connected to those guys?

Nope. I’ve never interacted with them once.

All I did was post what they said, before you confirmed it wasn’t accurate.

[BTH]

3 hours ago, Jeff Fletcher said:

By the way, as of today they're 12th (I have no idea if this link will work)

Ahh, I sorted the column backwards yesterday. My bad.

So 12th is better than 20th. But still not great, given the other things you’re sacrificing with that approach.

If the actual stats have positive regress towards the expected stats, then it does look better.

I guess they’ll continue to trust the process and see where they end up at the end of the season.

[BTH]

5 hours ago, Blarg said:

Trendon posted a thread that linked to the podcast. That was just a jab at Trendon for a woefully failed finger point at Moreno meddling with the team. 

I think Moreno’s meddling with the team is fairly well documented, despite that not report not being true.

To name a few… the Rendon signing, Joc trade, cutting spending internationally.

[Stradling]

@Inside Pitch do you wanna give us a run down of why they stopped their international academy back in the early 2000’s?

[Swordsman78]

4 hours ago, Stradling said:

@Swordsman78 here is some information on a topic we were discussing last night.  It’s just information, you can decide whether it means you are right or blarg was right.  My opinion is that there is more value in working yourself into a hitters count and making the pitcher work rather than give the pitcher quick innings.  Getting into a teams bullpen allows you to weaken that pen over the course of a 3 game series.  

Very good info.  Thanks Strad for asking Jeff, and also for Jeff to coming up with the facts, rather than going off "gut feelings".

My Takaways: 

Angles are #10 in running up the pitch count per plate appearance at 3.94

Angels are #1 in swinging at first pitch at 34.6 but also rank #8 in putting the ball in play.

 

So I guess Angles do swing alot at the first pitch, but it does not affect their ability to run up the pitch count.

 

You made the point about wanting the lead off guy to run up the pitch count, ala Ricky Henderson, Maury Wills, or a choke up guy who is likely to turn a walk into a double.  The Angels lead off guy most of the year has been Taylor Ward, and he doesn't strike me as a guy who is going up to the  plate to scrape and claw, take pitches, and get on first any way possible.  Taylor Ward is looking for an extra base hit, and he swings hard,

 

So Blarg and you were accurate in complaining about first pitch swings, although it does not appear to result in low pitch counts for opponents.

My take was the Angel hitters are looking more for extra base hits than to walk, or take strikes to drive up the pitch count.

So at the end of the day, all of us have a case.

 

 

[Jeff Fletcher]

33 minutes ago, Swordsman78 said:

The Angels lead off guy most of the year has been Taylor Ward, and he doesn't strike me as a guy who is going up to the  plate to scrape and claw, take pitches, and get on first any way possible.  Taylor Ward is looking for an extra base hit, and he swings hard,

3.97 P/PA

MLB average is 3.91

[Erstad Grit]

10 hours ago, Jeff Fletcher said:

Never say never. But if you're asking what I think they're going to do, I don't think they're going to trade him.

I think they feel they have a better chance of re-signing him than all of you do.

How about a Yankees Chapman plan. We tell Ohtani...

"We're going to trade you. You get a playoff run. We prospects. Then when we sign you in the offseason you're coming to a better team." 

[Blarg]

And he says, "Okay." Then he is a free agent and goes anywhere he wants. 

[Inside Pitch]

18 hours ago, Stradling said:

@Inside Pitch do you wanna give us a run down of why they stopped their international academy back in the early 2000’s?

Clay Daniel was caught skimming signing bonus money -- the buscones on the island started telling people the Angels were dirty and the team pulled out of the DR because they had mud on their faces and reality was -- they had been guilty.

Clay Daniel was a POS, and he cost the Angels dearly.  He was also a very very good judge of talent.

[Inside Pitch]

Holy shit.... 

I only scrolled up a bit to see if I could see why Strad was asking about that old topic and I see Fletcher is putting in all the heavy duty stuff slapping people over their heads with numbers..  LOL.

Sometimes you guys have to take a step away from the team before it makes you nutty and ruins your moods.

It's been a shitty two weeks.  

[Inside Pitch]

Also, if ever a team needed a few days off it's the Angels.

[DMVol]

28 minutes ago, Inside Pitch said:

Clay Daniel was caught skimming signing bonus money -- the buscones on the island started telling people the Angels were dirty and the team pulled out of the DR because they had mud on their faces and reality was -- they had been guilty.

Clay Daniel was a POS, and he cost the Angels dearly.  He was also a very very good judge of talent.

Honestly, I’m not so sure that the lack of Latin America talent for several years wasn’t as big a part of our problems as anything else, i.e. bad FA signings and mediocre drafts….3/4 good to really good Latin players might have made a big difference in this down period….

[Stradling]

42 minutes ago, Inside Pitch said:

Clay Daniel was caught skimming signing bonus money -- the buscones on the island started telling people the Angels were dirty and the team pulled out of the DR because they had mud on their faces and reality was -- they had been guilty.

Clay Daniel was a POS, and he cost the Angels dearly.  He was also a very very good judge of talent.

Who hired Clay Daniel’s and when did they shut down the operation?  Was shutting it down the right thing in the moment or was there another way?  

[Inside Pitch]

11 minutes ago, DMVol said:

Honestly, I’m not so sure that the lack of Latin America talent for several years wasn’t as big a part of our problems as anything else, i.e. bad FA signings and mediocre drafts….3/4 good to really good Latin players might have made a big difference in this down period….

People massively underrated how big of an issue that was.  Consider how little the Angels paid for both Barria and Suarez, and the amount they have actually gotten out of both of them.  Neither guy was a bonus baby.

Those Latin America guys are at the bare minimum organizational currency -- something the Angels severely lacked and are still trying to stockpile.

It was bad that it happened, but it was criminal it stayed that way until Eppler showed up.