What a difference an extra $25m (and maybe more) makes

[Docwaukee]

The previous 3 years, payroll has hovered around 180m.  Granted there were a couple of trades or it would have been a bit higher but for the sake of argument, let's call it that.  

It sure has been nice to see what a GM can do with an extra 26m (and maybe more) in his pocket.  

It's almost exactly Drury+Urshela+Estevez.  I would not like this team as much at all right now if we stopped at Renfroe and Anderson.  Or if they'd had reallocated the 25m spent on Renfroe and Anderson to other players.  

I tried to avoid the next comment, but I can't help myself.  Imagine how much different if a situation this franchise would have been in had they been able to spend an additional 10-15% over the last 7 years.  

Maybe it's just a coincidence that Arte opens the coffers in his final year as owner.  But I doubt any of us really think that.  

[Inside Pitch]

1 hour ago, Docwaukee said:

The previous 3 years, payroll has hovered around 180m.  Granted there were a couple of trades or it would have been a bit higher but for the sake of argument, let's call it that.  

It sure has been nice to see what a GM can do with an extra 26m (and maybe more) in his pocket.  

It's almost exactly Drury+Urshela+Estevez.  I would not like this team as much at all right now if we stopped at Renfroe and Anderson.  Or if they'd had reallocated the 25m spent on Renfroe and Anderson to other players.  

I tried to avoid the next comment, but I can't help myself.  Imagine how much different if a situation this franchise would have been in had they been able to spend an additional 10-15% over the last 7 years.  

Maybe it's just a coincidence that Arte opens the coffers in his final year as owner.  But I doubt any of us really think that.  

Penny wise, pound foolish -- the Arte years.

[Blarg]

The cap was $100 million less when Arte took over. In comparison to the other teams he did spend that extra $25 million. 

If the Angels had committed $25 million to the scouting and minor league development with technology and coaching over the last 8 years they would have been in better shape than if it went into the roster. $3 million more a year to the minor leagues as opposed to $25 million in player contracts each year would have had better results. 

It was never about how much the Angels spent. It has been about spending on free agents instead of developing talent. An extra $160 million would have made little difference the last 8 years because the team was a mess from the instructional league on up.

 

[angelsnationtalk]

Weather the payroll is at $205M or $95M it doesn't matter what you spend, but matters if you're in the playoffs. 

The team that spent $95M last year made the playoffs. 

Angels are still looking like a 3rd place team so weather they spend or not is becoming irrelevant to me. They've been spending with no success.

[Stradling]

Whether

[Warfarin]

3 minutes ago, angelsnationtalk said:

Weather the payroll is at $205M or $95M it doesn't matter what you spend, but matters if you're in the playoffs. 

The team that spent $95M last year made the playoffs. 

Angels are still looking like a 3rd place team so weather they spend or not is becoming irrelevant to me. They've been spending with no success.

I denno dude, you seem to be rather consistent in insisting that the only way to improve this team is to sign guys to huge deals.

As we have seen with the Rays and Guardians, teams with very modest payrolls can still be very good.  The organization just has to become really excellent at player development.

We aren't there yet, but we also have a much greater budget than those two teams.  We are a borderline team, but with some internal improvement and decent health, I think we can compete for a wild card spot.  I tend to be optimistic in general though.  We'll see.

[angelsnationtalk]

1 minute ago, Warfarin said:

I denno dude, you seem to be rather consistent in insisting that the only way to improve this team is to sign guys to huge deals.

As we have seen with the Rays and Guardians, teams with very modest payrolls can still be very good.  The organization just has to become really excellent at player development.

We aren't there yet, but we also have a much greater budget than those two teams.  We are a borderline team, but with some internal improvement and decent health, I think we can compete for a wild card spot.  I tend to be optimistic in general though.  We'll see.

Contrary to the big signings they have never worked, so no, I don't think it's the only way. 

But I will say this, given their lack of player development, the Angels are in one spot to make them win and it's by spending. 
To me, their tax payroll should be around $250M. They have enough stars (Trout, Rendon, Ohtani) to build around, but they need to be extremely deep in every other area to give them that cushion. 

Minasian is on the right track, but their limited payroll increases over the years has been extremely underwhelming for what this team needed to do to win.

[Inside Pitch]

1 hour ago, angelsnationtalk said:

Weather the payroll is at $205M or $95M it doesn't matter what you spend, but matters if you're in the playoffs. 

The team that spent $95M last year made the playoffs. 

Angels are still looking like a 3rd place team so weather they spend or not is becoming irrelevant to me. They've been spending with no success.

I find British Columbia to be very pretty in the fall.

[Warfarin]

1 hour ago, angelsnationtalk said:

Contrary to the big signings they have never worked, so no, I don't think it's the only way. 

But I will say this, given their lack of player development, the Angels are in one spot to make them win and it's by spending. 
To me, their tax payroll should be around $250M. They have enough stars (Trout, Rendon, Ohtani) to build around, but they need to be extremely deep in every other area to give them that cushion. 

Minasian is on the right track, but their limited payroll increases over the years has been extremely underwhelming for what this team needed to do to win.

That is the key part.  It does appear that this team is on the right track in terms of player development.

Unfortunately, patience is difficult to come by these days, but given the nature of this game, all we can be is patient.

It takes years to overhaul a draft and development process.  Minasian took over in the fall of 2020.  After taking over, he has to slowly hire the team he wants to put in place to help facilitate player development - scouting, drafting strategy, implementing certain kinds of process improvements, etc.  I am assuming that is a long, complicated process.  From my untrained eye, it looks like it took him about a year or so to get through the majority of those hires.

His first draft with this team was in the summer of 2021.  It takes a few years (sometimes faster, sometimes longer) for prospects to develop.  It also takes time to implement the developmental areas of focus for the players and prospects you already have, too.  

Given all the above, it always seemed like it would take a few years to churn out a strong farm system, unless you have a major fire sale to acquire talent (which we didn't do).  

The "best" strategy to facilitate contention is to do what the Guggenheim group did with the Dodgers - spend a lot of money multiple years in a row on the MLB team, invest heavily on player development in the interim, and then after 3-5 years of that heavy farm investment, gradually peel pack player payroll as those prospects develop and take over.

So for Minasian, given that he didn't have the benefit of a huge cash infusion from Moreno, and was not permitted to engage in a fire sale, all he can really do is invest in player development and wait a few years for that process to play out.

Maybe the new owner will given Minasian that cash infusion to help ramp the team up as prospects develop.  We'll see.  This is why, though, the GM hiring (and subsequent FO infrastructure) is so hugely vital to a team's success, and why we have to hope that Arte got the Minasian hiring "right."

[oldguy]

17 minutes ago, Warfarin said:

That is the key part.  It does appear that this team is on the right track in terms of player development.

Unfortunately, patience is difficult to come by these days, but given the nature of this game, all we can be is patient.

It takes years to overhaul a draft and development process.  Minasian took over in the fall of 2020.  After taking over, he has to slowly hire the team he wants to put in place to help facilitate player development - scouting, drafting strategy, implementing certain kinds of process improvements, etc.  I am assuming that is a long, complicated process.  From my untrained eye, it looks like it took him about a year or so to get through the majority of those hires.

His first draft with this team was in the summer of 2021.  It takes a few years (sometimes faster, sometimes longer) for prospects to develop.  It also takes time to implement the developmental areas of focus for the players and prospects you already have, too.  

Given all the above, it always seemed like it would take a few years to churn out a strong farm system, unless you have a major fire sale to acquire talent (which we didn't do).  

The "best" strategy to facilitate contention is to do what the Guggenheim group did with the Dodgers - spend a lot of money multiple years in a row on the MLB team, invest heavily on player development in the interim, and then after 3-5 years of that heavy farm investment, gradually peel pack player payroll as those prospects develop and take over.

So for Minasian, given that he didn't have the benefit of a huge cash infusion from Moreno, and was not permitted to engage in a fire sale, all he can really do is invest in player development and wait a few years for that process to play out.

Maybe the new owner will given Minasian that cash infusion to help ramp the team up as prospects develop.  We'll see.  This is why, though, the GM hiring (and subsequent FO infrastructure) is so hugely vital to a team's success, and why we have to hope that Arte got the Minasian hiring "right."

Agree 100%.  We are not going anywhere as a franchise when we get excited to have a single player on the top 100 prospects list.  Off the top of my head, I can list only a handful of top 100 Angel's prospects since the departure of Eddie Bane (Jo Adell, Logan O'Hoppe, Andrew Heaney, Sean Newcomb.)  This can't continue or the organization has no chance.

[Stradling]

To me it has little to do with top 100 lists.  To me it has more to do with having guys come up each and every year that play a role on the major league team. It can’t be one guy a year, it has to be multiple guys per year.  So in the last 5 or so years we have seen Fletcher and Walsh have a couple of decent years, Sandoval and Suarez are coming into their own, Detmers and Ward look to be keepers.  At a smaller level we have had Marsh that was moved to give us a MLB ready catcher that scouts like and Rengifo.  Most of those guys weren’t on any top 100 lists, they all contribute, but at the end of the day there aren’t enough of these guys.  

[wopphil]

I think the key is spreading the money around to multiple players. Upgrading at left field (Renfroe), SP (Anderson), and the corners (Urshela) is likely to have a bigger impact than, say, shortstop alone (even if that player is Correa). 

[Dtwncbad]

Just imagine how good the nachos could have been if they had spent just a little more on the quality of the cheese.

[floplag]

7 hours ago, Docwaukee said:

The previous 3 years, payroll has hovered around 180m.  Granted there were a couple of trades or it would have been a bit higher but for the sake of argument, let's call it that.  

It sure has been nice to see what a GM can do with an extra 26m (and maybe more) in his pocket.  

It's almost exactly Drury+Urshela+Estevez.  I would not like this team as much at all right now if we stopped at Renfroe and Anderson.  Or if they'd had reallocated the 25m spent on Renfroe and Anderson to other players.  

I tried to avoid the next comment, but I can't help myself.  Imagine how much different if a situation this franchise would have been in had they been able to spend an additional 10-15% over the last 7 years.  

Maybe it's just a coincidence that Arte opens the coffers in his final year as owner.  But I doubt any of us really think that.  

He opened the coffers to increase sale value, nothing more.   Hes get more if the team is competitive.   I hate to be that guy but yeah, thats where i am with him.

[Warfarin]

29 minutes ago, Stradling said:

To me it has little to do with top 100 lists.  To me it has more to do with having guys come up each and every year that play a role on the major league team. It can’t be one guy a year, it has to be multiple guys per year.  So in the last 5 or so years we have seen Fletcher and Walsh have a couple of decent years, Sandoval and Suarez are coming into their own, Detmers and Ward look to be keepers.  At a smaller level we have had Marsh that was moved to give us a MLB ready catcher that scouts like and Rengifo.  Most of those guys weren’t on any top 100 lists, they all contribute, but at the end of the day there aren’t enough of these guys.  

Agreed.  So I like to look at the Braves as a comparison, with the hope that we can see this team eventually evolve to be more like theirs.

They have had various FV45 prospects or higher promoted to the majors, and they go on to immediately be wildly successful.  Harris was promoted last year and he generated 4.8 fWAR (!) in 114 games.  Spencer Strider generated 4.9 fWAR (!) in 130 innings.  Grissham generated 0.7 fWAR in only 40 games.  All of these guys were promoted quickly and were successful.

Those are the kinds of development successes this team needs.  The Braves clearly have an excellent player development system in place such that their minor leaguers transition seamlessly and are successful.  Hopefully Minasian can start to achieve the same kind of results soon.  Perhaps even next year, with O'Hoppe, Silseth, Bush, Joyce, etc..

[cgoldangel]

One thing that is positive from last year is that we had some really good improvement from players in the minors not just for the year but also mid year improvement. This seems to show our player development has improved and if we see a similar improvement this year then we know Minasian is on the right track. Really interested in seeing if Jackson and Adams can make that kind of improvement this year. It also helps to have more talent in the system through the draft.

[Dtwncbad]

14 minutes ago, floplag said:

He opened the coffers to increase sale value, nothing more.   Hes get more if the team is competitive.   I hate to be that guy but yeah, thats where i am with him.

[Warfarin]

11 minutes ago, cgoldangel said:

One thing that is positive from last year is that we had some really good improvement from players in the minors not just for the year but also mid year improvement. This seems to show our player development has improved and if we see a similar improvement this year then we know Minasian is on the right track. Really interested in seeing if Jackson and Adams can make that kind of improvement this year. It also helps to have more talent in the system through the draft.

This is the key thing.  As I mentioned above the Braves, their players seem to seamlessly transition into the MLB, and in various cases, are actually better in the majors than they were in the minors.  Something about their process is very good, as it focuses on helping them prepare for the big leagues and hitting the ground running.

Those mid-year improvements you referenced occurred for multiple players - Soto had a notable improvement for two months, Paris caught fire the last few months.  Jackson, while he posted some poor offensive numbers overall, notably made a huge leap in his ability to make contact, and he did that in the context of being promoted from low A to AA - that is not an insignificant development.

These are the kinds of progression and growth that we hopefully can see.  Again, Soto's stats in the MLB were flukey, but what if he actually grew considerably, such that he actually becomes an above average MLB SS, when he wasn't really even on most radars until that promotion?

[Inside Pitch]

30 minutes ago, cgoldangel said:

Really interested in seeing if Jackson and Adams can make that kind of improvement this year. It also helps to have more talent in the system through the draft.

Both those guys showed some signs improvements in their plate discipline -- Jackson ended the season with a walk rate near 11% and his K rate down to 21.9% -- it was over 33% when he had his big season in rookie ball.  Jackson's power didn't translate last season so -- not sure if he's sacrificing some of that to K less or it was injury related but it's worth pointing out his .239 BaBIP was well below what he's done in the past and what you'd expect from someone with his speed.  There is a lot of noise with him.  Adams' gives less reason for optimism.   He dropped his K rate from 37.8% in High A in 21 to 21.7% in 22, but then it spiked to 29.7% in AA, his walk rate was pretty steady hovering near 9%.  But contact is the issue with Jackson, he's not really shown signs he can hit and unlike Jackson where an argument can be made he was super unlucky, Adams BaBip in AA was .350  Adams really needs to get his walk rate back over 10% and learn to butcher boy the shit out of the ball because he's got enough speed to beat out a lot of GBs..

I'd say this is Adam's last real shot to turn it around.  Jackson similarly needs to show he can play a full season.

[Angelsjunky]

4 hours ago, Blarg said:

The cap was $100 million less when Arte took over. In comparison to the other teams he did spend that extra $25 million. 

If the Angels had committed $25 million to the scouting and minor league development with technology and coaching over the last 8 years they would have been in better shape than if it went into the roster. $3 million more a year to the minor leagues as opposed to $25 million in player contracts each year would have had better results. 

It was never about how much the Angels spent. It has been about spending on free agents instead of developing talent. An extra $160 million would have made little difference the last 8 years because the team was a mess from the instructional league on up.

 

This. While I hear Doc's point, it isn't that extra $25M, it is spending more wisely. Arte has liked his big splashes, but none of them have turned out well. So instead of spending $750 million on Pujols, Hamilton, Upton, and Rendon, you use those funds to rebuild the scouting and development program, and still have plenty left over for the types of signings Doc is talking about.

[Stradling]

3 hours ago, floplag said:

He opened the coffers to increase sale value, nothing more.   Hes get more if the team is competitive.   I hate to be that guy but yeah, thats where i am with him.

That’s not what’s happening. If the potential owners are already going through the vetting process then the team will be sold prior to showing they are competitive. 

[Tank]

6 hours ago, Blarg said:

It was never about how much the Angels spent. It has been about spending on free agents instead of developing talent.

this right here.

[floplag]

2 hours ago, Stradling said:

That’s not what’s happening. If the potential owners are already going through the vetting process then the team will be sold prior to showing they are competitive. 

You dont think moving it in that direction helps?

[floplag]

5 hours ago, Dtwncbad said:

Roll away, enjoy the ride, just dont trip while not looking where you are going. 

[Stradling]

10 minutes ago, floplag said:

You dont think moving it in that direction helps?

The sale price?  No, not really. If they were competitive with young cost controlled players, sure.  But signing one year rentals doesn’t help the value of the club because those guys are gone after the year.