Inside Edge: Grading Dipoto’s Offseason Pitching Moves

[AngelsWin.com]

 By Greg Bird, AngelsWin.com Staff Writer - 

Let me start the train of articles pointing the finger at who’s to blame for this Halo mess. The season looks bleak and long at this point. Everything seems to be going wrong and I mean everything. The question is could the Angels have done things differently and changed their fortunes? I want to look back at the offseason pitching moves to see if there are moves that could have been made that would have turned things around. This is the question I want to answer, is DiPoto to blame for this mess? Were Jerry’s pitching moves the big blunder that cost the season? I’m focusing on pitching because I believe the Hamilton signing was happening whether DiPoto wanted it or not.

Let’s first identify the pitchers that the Angels could’ve targeted last winter. Here are the starters that were available to sign or keep: Grienke, Lohse, Sanchez, Santana, Haren, Dempster, Saunders, Ryu, Marquis, McCarthy, Guthrie and Jackson. This is the list of relievers that were available to sign: Uehara, Broxton, League, and Fujikawa. Did the front office miss gems in this class of free agents?

To analyze these pitchers I’m going to use two stats, ERA and ERA+. I will also include W/L records from time to time but I don’t put much stock in that statistic since it is more of a team statistic. ERA+ compares a pitchers ERA to the league average ERA and adjusts it for park factors. It is set on a 100 point scale. If a player has a 105 ERA+ it means they are 5 % better than the league in ERA when adjusted for parks they pitch in. 

Since the bullpen has been an area of concern and frustration let’s start there. The two relievers the Angels did sign have been hanging out on the DL all year. When Burnett has pitched, he has done well with a 0.93 ERA and a 424 ERA+. To put Burnett’s 424 ERA+ in perspective; he is 324% better than league average! (Warning: think small sample size here, 9.2IP)

Of the available bullpen arms only Uehara has provided good value to his team. He has a 2.39 ERA and an ERA+ of 183 while on a 1 year $4.25 million contract. Broxton has been run-of-the-mill with a 4.10 ERA and an ERA+ of 102. He is making $7 million per year on a 3 year contract. This is really good money and he is only providing league average production. League and Fujikawa have been awful this year. Fujikawa is out for the season with Tommy John’s surgery after posting an ERA+ of 78 and Brandon League has an ERA+ of 62. 

Of the 5 or 6 relievers who were available as free agents (do we count Madson?) only 1 has provided good value to their team. Burnett’s was admittedly a slight injury risk but he has been excellent when he has been on the field. Aside from missing on Uehara, DiPoto did avoid all of the other expensive mistakes on the market. Uehara wasn’t a complete miss because the Angel bullpen really needed a solid left-hander and Koji didn’t fit that need. Based on his options DiPoto was slightly above average in building a bullpen but hit with a nasty injury bug. Grade: B

The starting market was interesting and very confusing. The real values on the market were Anibal Sanchez, Hyun-Jin Ryu, Jeremy Guthrie and Ervin Santana (Yes, that Ervin!) Sanchez was the ace of the class with a 6-5 record, a 2.65 ERA, and sporting a 159 ERA+. Ryu was the next catch of the offseason with his 6-2 record, a 2.72 ERA, and a 135 ERA+. While both of these starters were great signings they were also relatively expensive. Sanchez signed a 5 year $80 million contract and Ryu signed a 6 year $36 million contract with a $25.7 million posting fee ($61.7 million total.) I wonder if Tony Reagins’ lack of foreign scouting precluded the Angels from being fully aware of Ryu’s talent level and in no position to bid on him. In any case, the Hamilton signing made both of these contracts financially impossible.

Guthrie would’ve been a good value signing but I don’t think many people in baseball saw that coming. Guthrie has a 7-3 record, a 3.60 ERA, and a 114 ERA+.  This isn’t ace level but definitely worth his 3 year $25 million contract. Santana, who most fans were glad to be rid of, is having one of his random good years. His record is a meager 4-5 but he has a 2.99 ERA and a 137 ERA+. These two starters could’ve been in the Angel rotation but I don’t think many would’ve been excited by these signings more than they were by Blanton. 

Grienke, Dempster, Lohse, and Marquis are pretty much the definition of average. These starters all have an ERA+ between 95 and 100, with Lohse having the 100. I’m not saying these pitchers wouldn’t be an improvement over Blanton but they are just slightly better than Hanson (93 ERA+) and a little worse than Vargas (103 ERA+.) Grienke is vastly overpaid and Lohse is moderately overpaid, especially when the draft pick compensation is factored in. Dempster is overpaid as well with his 2 year $26.5 million contract but not as much as the other two starters. Marquis could’ve been a good value but I don’t think anybody thought that was possible. It is also possible that Marquis’ season is Petco dependent and he could’ve failed in the AL or in an easier park to hit. 

The rest of the available starters have done poorly. They all have an ERA+ between 70 and 80. To put it another way, these starters are 20%-30% worse than the league average pitcher. Compared to Blanton’s 65 ERA+ they are improvements, but not worth being in a rotation. This group includes Brandon McCarthy and Joe Saunders, who were on the wish lists of many fans during the offseason as replacements for Vargas or Blanton. Brandon and Joe are not very good this year. McCarthy has a 2-4 record, a 5.00 ERA, and an ERA+ of 80. Saunders has a 4-6 record, 5.12 ERA, and an ERA+ of 73. Haren and Edwin Jackson both have an ERA+ of 70 and are just not worth running out there every fifth day. 

DiPoto missed on Guthrie, but so did most GMs; he wasn’t a hot commodity. DiPoto possibly missed on Marquis, but it isn’t certain he would’ve done as well for the Angels. DiPoto did miss out on Sanchez and Ryu but the signing of Hamilton pretty much ruled him out of being able to afford those contracts. Blanton (2 years/$15 million) was a complete mistake and even Dempster (2years/$26.5 million) or McCarthy (2 years/$18 million) would’ve been a slight improvement.  The pitching market was full of mistakes to avoid, Grienke (6 years/$147 million) and Lohse (3 year/$33 million.) DiPoto did avoid those really bad contracts. I would say that DiPoto was average in navigating the starting pitching market. Grade: C

In evaluating the whole pitching market, now in hindsight, it doesn’t look like there was much value to be had. It is important to note that Vargas has been a bright spot for the Angels and Hanson isn’t terrible, yet. I would say that DiPoto tried his theory of flyball pitching and good outfield defense that has had some limited success and one very notable failure. Looking at the evidence I don’t see a smoking gun to lay all of this disaster at DiPoto’s feet (someone higher up decided on Hamilton.) 

Overall I’d give DiPoto a grade of C+ on his offseason pitching moves, based on the information he had at the time. I think it is best we lay off the, “fire DiPoto” movement and try to look elsewhere to find the smoking gun to blame this fiasco on.

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[Docwaukee]

I think a C+ is fair considering the Blanton debacle.  I really think Guthrie will end up a low to mid 4's era guy by season's end and to take the chance on Ervin would have been a misstep.  He was one of the worst pitchers in baseball last year.  Replacing him with Blanton, however, was a big time failure.  JD's biggest obstacle was that he had too much to overcome and he had little room for error yet he made a massive one.  I still don't really understand what he was thinking.  Not just the player, but the timing and extent of the deal. 

[Ohtaniland]

Vargas has been pretty good but he wasn't cheap. Kendrys Morales is making an impact in Seattle. I'm not a big fan of trading inter-division.

Blanton, Madson, Burnett were horrible signings. Hanson has huge issues with holding base runners on.

Ernesto Frieri is not a true shutdown closer. Dipoto was a pitcher so some of these decisions are mindboggling.

[DMVol]

Blanton was the big miss....a miss that we'll pay for by eating his contract at some point.....Vargas was a good deal....KMo was likely gone after this year and we needed starting pitching badly, moreso than a 1B/DH......Burnett and Madsen were injury risks that haven't panned out so the overall C+ is probably pretty fair....

[Glen]

I've been a Dipoto supporter but the signing of Blanton makes (and made) me rethink that.  We weren't competing against anybody else for him and he was going from the NL to the AL.  Horrible signing.

 

And once again, it's Dipoto, not DiPoto. 

[ettin]

Based on the fact that the starting pitcher market was predicted to be bad going back 2 years ago through next year, I think based on the available options Dipoto made some reasonable cost-conscious decisions. Clearly the Blanton signing has not worked out in any way, shape, or form, but I think he acquired two starters, Vargas and Hanson, without having to give up too much (Morales being the more significant trade over Walden).

 

It's not like there was a whole lot out there to get.

[gotbeer]

Nice read Greg.  And I agree.  

 

I think in regards to the Blanton signing is it happened way too early in the offseason when other pitchers were available.  Not that they would have done any better.  And people are fixated on that one move instead of all the moves.  Credit for a bad singing of Blanton, but no credit for Hanson, Vargas, or Burnett.  And Burnett had a small injury risk, but nothing more than a usual ballplayer like Weaver removing bone chips from his elbow.  He was rock solid up until this year, no way to have seen the injury bug coming.

[Nowani]

I give Dipotto an "A" for building an offense but a "D" in building a pitching staff. As unexiting as many think pitching is, it's what every team who makes the playoffs has. No one makes the playoffs with a dominating offense and no pitching. Lots of teams make the playoffs with excellent pitching and no offense.

[Angel Oracle]

Because Hackilton was already starting to show decline and thus 5 years was too long, I give a C- for offense.

For pitching, I also give a C-.    Blanton's signing was a joke, the Hanson trade was a wash since Walden is inconsistent, and the Vargas trade was a net gain because we are short on pitching.

 

Really though, the stage had already been set since 2010 when the Haren trade cost us two good lefty prospects and gave us good pitching for a whopping 1.5 seasons, and it deteriorated from there. The 2010 draft didn't help matters any, two absolute flops out of those 5 early picks (Clarke and Bolden), one so-so (Bedrosian), one decent (Lindsey), and one solid (Cowart).   No wonder Eddie Bane was dismissed after 2010. 

[Chuck]

As usual, good stuff Greg.

I agree with the grades too.

[Inside Pitch]

I think a C+ is fair considering the Blanton debacle.  I really think Guthrie will end up a low to mid 4's era guy by season's end and to take the chance on Ervin would have been a misstep.  He was one of the worst pitchers in baseball last year.  Replacing him with Blanton, however, was a big time failure.  JD's biggest obstacle was that he had too much to overcome and he had little room for error yet he made a massive one.  I still don't really understand what he was thinking.  Not just the player, but the timing and extent of the deal. 

 

 

C- is pretty generous IMHO..   4/5 ths of the rotation are Dipoto deals, and using the article's criteria of ERA+ the only of of his buys that has posted an even league average ERA+ is Vargas, at 103.   Wilson 94, Blanton 65, and Hanson 95, are all below the league average of 100 even if only slightly so.  At best it's a C- with potential to improve.  When you consider his relief pitching additions have amounted to less than 10 innings of work total, that throws the grades for me into the F category.  It would have been even worse had he been able to pull off the Haren for Marmol trade, so, in essence the Cub's stupidity saved him from even further embarrassment.   

 

I think JD has the potential to be good, but some of the sugarcoating and flat out ignoring of what he's done and failed at doing is annoying...  Saying he did a great job of avoiding the Greinke contract rings a bit hollow when you consider we have an abortion of a Rfer at 125 mil.  He missed out on Scott Feldman at 1 year 6 mil.  He missed out on Carlos Villanueva at 2 years and 10 Mil -- both these guys had been pitching in less than friendly home parks and are doing well currently.  He had no problems risking money on injured RPs but passed on Francisco Liriano who's gone on to post a 2.36 ERA thus far this season and once again found his control.    Roberto Hernandez hasn't been good, but at 1.3 mil he's been a better return on investment than any pitcher the Angels signed this year.  Kevin Correia has a 99 ERA+ at 2 years 10 mil.   And about McCarthy, he was absolutely dreadful to start the season and has posted an ERA of 3.22 since May...  Pitching in AZ may have been a factor initially but he's looking less and less like a bust than Blanton at this point.

 

I genuinely believe that pitching to weaker offenses in the NL has helped some of these guys but when push comes to shove Dipoto's vision has yet to work.  Injuries to the OF have played into that greatly, but his usage of resources has been questionable.

 

Lots of season left, and if placed in a sellers spot we may see JD flip some guys and make it all better.   Despite how I may be coming across, I think it's a bit early still to completely poo-poo or praise his offseason.

[avejoe1]

All of the analysis boils down to this.  Jerry Dipoto is good at making trades for pitching.  He sucks at signing free agent pitchers.

 

The good:  Trading Jordan Walden to Atlanta for RH starter Tommy Hanson and trading Kendrys Morales to Seattle for LH starter Jason Vargas.  Where would the Angels be without these two solid starters?  Much has been made of the lack of stability in the starting pitching but without these two it would have been a total disaster.  Dipoto deserves significant credit for getting the trades for these two starters right.

 

The bad:  The obvious is signing RH starter Joe Blanton and his batting practice fastball to a guaranteed THREE YEAR CONTRACT.  Why is it that when the Angels really screw up it has to be for three to ten years?  The next two which have proven to be equally bad are the signings of RH reliever Ryan Madsen and LH reliever Sean Burnett.  My gosh, don't the Angels have any scouts who can look at a player at the end of a year and see the guy's not the same player as earlier in that year?  Do the Angels always have to sign free agents according to how their statistics look on paper (ie. past performance) without any projection as to how they can be expected to decline due to age or be unavailable due to a history of injury?  Look back at most Angels free agent signings and you have to wonder if any fantasy league participant could have done as badly.

[GregAlso]

Inside, I missed those two pitchers, good call. I ran thru a few lists and didn't catch those two. As a point they are a lot like Guthrie, nobody really thought they had much potential. We got to give the Cubs organization credit for finding value there.

Feldman's best season came in 2009, when he went 17-8 with a 4.08 ERA in 31 starts. He hasn't shown this potential ever before really. He is sporting an impressive ERA+ 126 and was signed cheap. Villanueva is a lot like Vargas this year but with out having shown this potential before. He had a 4.16 ERA across 16 starts and 22 relief appearances for the Blue Jays last season, but now has an above average ERA+ of 108. I do think they both benefit from the NL but either would've been big upgrades over Blanton. Feldman was snapped up early by the Cubs Villanueva would've been easier to sign.

I would like to point out the signing of Hamilton was Moreno more than Dipoto. I lay that at Arte's feet and don't blame Jerry for it.

I also don't blame Dipoto for Burnett. Nobody could've known the number of injuries he'd have. If the medical reports look good a GM has to trust that. We can't judge a decision based on DL time unless he went against better judgement. Burnett was the sign this offseason and Madson was the gamble. I didn't include Dane De La Rosa in the article because it was a later move but that factors into it as well a bit. I don't think Dipoto has done terrible at building the pen, the results out of his control are the problem, namely health.

[Erstad Grit]

Santana >>>>>Hanson 

Haren >>>>>> Blanton

Greinke >>>>>Vargas

 

Dipoto greatly damaged our rotation and thought Hamilton would make up for it. I'd give him an D. 

[Docwaukee]

I give him a C+ relative to his potential resources. I didn't dock him for injuries. 

 

If a solid contributor with a low 4's era replaces Blanton, he deserves and A because the guys that made the extra 15 starts in place of Weaver and Hanson did so to the tune of a 5.1era even with Jerome's solid contributions. 

 

An entire year of the expected rotation would have with team's rotation in the middle of the pack to slightly above average.  That's what was reasonable to expect relative to what he had to work with.  The lack of depth is not his fault.  Just Blanton is. 

[Brent Maguire]

The highest you can possibly go is a C- with him IMO.

 

You don't sign a guy with Blanton's track record for that much so early in the offseason. An unbelievably stupid and dumb reach to say the least. I thought he would be mediocre and provide a lot of innings but he's done even worse than that. 

 

Vargas for Morales was a great value for value deal. Morales is hitting well but Trumbo has been better and Morales didn't have another spot. Vargas has pitched right around where I thought he would. Dude has pitched some gems so far this year. 

 

The Hanson trade was a good value trade as well but I definitely would've found another starter as insurance. 

 

Biggest problem was signing Blanton and not having a good backup option in case he blew up, like he has, and in case Hanson continued having injury problems. Jerome has saved his ass and I don't think anybody expected him to pitch this well. Richards didn't prove he was ready to start so another option would've been nice. The fact that Barry Enright started any games shows how badly Dipoto screwed up here. 

 

If I were Jerry, I would've signed Feldman or Villanueva, and had Blanton as insurance on a cheap deal. 

[MacNasty]

Great article and I agree with the overall grade.  But when I consider Dipoto and his performance, for me it's some of the other stuff that is irritating...

 

1. Is he man enough to tell Arte to GTFO of his rice bowl?  Knowing how to handle your owner is a huge part of being a successful GM.  I just get the feeling that Arte thinks he is helping by running around in consecutive seasons making big signings which is handcuffing his GM a bit in his decision making.  This offseason Dipoto might need a sitdown with Arte to ensure he is setting the course he wants.

 

2. One thing Stoneman was amazing at was evaluating the coaching staff.  Sciosh's staff was ridiculous when he came aboard, and that was all Stoneman.  Dipoto needs to tweek this staff at a minimum, there is no doubt about it in my mind.  

 

Lastly, there is a chance that they need to blow this whole thing up.  If I were GM I'd hire Hurdle away from the Pirates and watch this team's offense explode.  But either way Dipoto is heading into a very crucial window in his tenure.  My take is that if you're going to get fired, ensure you get fired doing it the way you want it done, and if you go down swinging so be it.

[Vegas Halo Fan]

The bad:  The obvious is signing RH starter Joe Blanton and his batting practice fastball to a guaranteed THREE YEAR CONTRACT.  Why is it that when the Angels really screw up it has to be for three to ten years?  The next two which have proven to be equally bad are the signings of RH reliever Ryan Madsen and LH reliever Sean Burnett.  My gosh, don't the Angels have any scouts who can look at a player at the end of a year and see the guy's not the same player as earlier in that year?  Do the Angels always have to sign free agents according to how their statistics look on paper (ie. past performance) without any projection as to how they can be expected to decline due to age or be unavailable due to a history of injury?  Look back at most Angels free agent signings and you have to wonder if any fantasy league participant could have done as badly.

 

Preach on, brother. You nailed this part.

[Mark68]

Blanton was the big miss....a miss that we'll pay for by eating his contract at some point.....Vargas was a good deal....KMo was likely gone after this year and we needed starting pitching badly, moreso than a 1B/DH......Burnett and Madsen were injury risks that haven't panned out so the overall C+ is probably pretty fair....

I really don't get this "Burnett was an injury risk" business. Yes, he's been injured most of this year, but for the last five years has pitched in 58, 71, 73, 69, and 70 games. Where was the risk? Maybe he was overused...I could MAYBE see that being an argument. But for the last 5 years prior to this one, he has consistently pitched in more than 1/3 of his team's games.