Jose Quintana could end up being a really nice pickup.

[AngelsLakersFan]

7 hours ago, Warfarin said:

A lot of us were optimistic on him.  Last year was a fluke year in terms of his injury, but in all other years, he's been incredibly durable and effective.  Not a high-end ceiling, but someone who is likely at worst a very solid #4, and probably more of a #3.  At 1/8, that's an incredible steal.

Sure some of us were optimistic but damn, I don't think Ive ever made a suggestion for the team that received more push back than Quintana. 

[Billy_Ball]

Gotta love Quintana

 

[Billy_Ball]

Swaggy J

 

[Warfarin]

I said it before, but Eppler had the right idea, targeting one-year deals for pitchers, but poor executive - he targeted poor choices that flamed out horribly.

Minasian went after Quintana, who has a very durable, strong history, and only had an off-year due to a freak accident.  I don't know how he'll ultimately pitch, but he should, at worst, be a very stable #4 SP and provide significant innings.  Looks like a fantastic signing.

[Jeff Fletcher]

On 3/18/2021 at 6:02 AM, Warfarin said:

I said it before, but Eppler had the right idea, targeting one-year deals for pitchers, but poor executive - he targeted poor choices that flamed out 

The thing with the narrative that “Eppler was bad at signing pitchers on one year deals” is that it is a very small sample. 
 

You’re talking about 0 for 3. (And a case can be made that Teheran wasn’t so much a “miss” as an “incomplete.” The guy got covid, so he pitched with basically no spring training and then he got about 3 games to prove himself before he was chucked in the trash can.)

Also, the evaluation methods they used to pick Cahill and Harvey were the same ones they used to pick Bundy. 
 

Anyway, the overall “hit rate” on that level of pitcher is probably 25-40 percent, so Eppler was really right in there at 1 for 3 (or 1 for 4 if you count Teheran.)

Without looking it up, I bet the “hit rate” on the higher caliber pitchers, who sign 3-plus-year deals, is probably 60 percent or so (but the misses are much more costly.) Remember that almost all free agents are at an age when they are more likely to get worse than better.
 

[Angels 1961]

Quintana and Cobb have looked good but it's spring games. I hope it continues once season starts.

[Angels 1961]

47 minutes ago, Jeff Fletcher said:

The thing with the narrative that “Eppler was bad at signing pitchers on one year deals” is that it is a very small sample. 
 

You’re talking about 0 for 3. (And a case can be made that Teheran wasn’t so much a “miss” as an “incomplete.” The guy got covid, so he pitched with basically no spring training and then he got about 3 games to prove himself before he was chucked in the trash can.)

Also, the evaluation methods they used to pick Cahill and Harvey were the same ones they used to pick Bundy. 
 

Anyway, the overall “hit rate” on that level of pitcher is probably 25-40 percent, so Eppler was really right in there at 1 for 3 (or 1 for 4 if you count Teheran.)

Without looking it up, I bet the “hit rate” on the higher caliber pitchers, who sign 3-plus-year deals, is probably 60 percent or so (but the misses are much more costly.) Remember that almost all free agents are at an age when they are more likely to get worse than better.
 

Jeff, has Lagares locked up 4th OF spot. I like Ward to win that job. I feel Ward would be better than Fowler as starting RF.

[Ace-Of-Diamonds]

On 3/13/2021 at 12:04 AM, Second Base said:

I think Quintana and Cobb will both be better than expected acquisitions for the Angels, and Ohtani will be better than expected in his return to the mound.

You can read on MLBTR, most non-Angels fans are expecting Quintana and Cobb to suck and Ohtani to be hurt. Much of the baseball world will be shocked when both Quintana and Cobb perform as solid #3/4 starters and Ohtani like an ace.

A healthy Ohtani is as good a pitcher as there is, plus he can hit a baseball as far as Bo Jackson. He will be the must see attraction this year, along with Trout and Rendon. Our offense is as good or better than any in the league, especially in ALW.

Edited March 19, 2021 by Ace-Of-Diamonds

[Second Base]

38 minutes ago, Ace-Of-Diamonds said:

A healthy Ohtani is as good a pitcher as there is, plus he can hit a baseball as far as Bo Jackson. He will be the must see attraction this year, along with Trout and Rendon. Our offense is as good are better than any in the league, especially in ALW.

The only weakness I see in the team right now is that bullpen. I think they have a solid average rotation, above average offense, good coaching and front office, and a solid farm system. 

But the bullpen looks to have serious holes in the 6th and 7th innings.

[Ace-Of-Diamonds]

1 minute ago, Second Base said:

The only weakness I see in the team right now is that bullpen. I think they have a solid average rotation, above average offense, good coaching and front office, and a solid farm system. 

But the bullpen looks to have serious holes in the 6th and 7th innings.

I'm more optimistic about the pen, I think we're going to win a lot of games this year...

[Angel Oracle]

2 minutes ago, Second Base said:

The only weakness I see in the team right now is that bullpen. I think they have a solid average rotation, above average offense, good coaching and front office, and a solid farm system. 

But the bullpen looks to have serious holes in the 6th and 7th innings.

It’s up to Buttrey to finally pitch again like he did August 2018 through May 2019.   That Buttrey would be fine as a #3 or #4 guy in the pen.

[Second Base]

16 minutes ago, Angel Oracle said:

It’s up to Buttrey to finally pitch again like he did August 2018 through May 2019.   That Buttrey would be fine as a #3 or #4 guy in the pen.

That's the thing though, right now, the success of many individual games is going to come down to Buttrey sitting down the 7th inning, and someone like Guerra coming in and putting out fires in the 6th inning.

That's a bad spot to be in. 

[Taylor]

2 hours ago, Jeff Fletcher said:

The thing with the narrative that “Eppler was bad at signing pitchers on one year deals” is that it is a very small sample. 
 

You’re talking about 0 for 3. (And a case can be made that Teheran wasn’t so much a “miss” as an “incomplete.” The guy got covid, so he pitched with basically no spring training and then he got about 3 games to prove himself before he was chucked in the trash can.)

Also, the evaluation methods they used to pick Cahill and Harvey were the same ones they used to pick Bundy. 
 

Anyway, the overall “hit rate” on that level of pitcher is probably 25-40 percent, so Eppler was really right in there at 1 for 3 (or 1 for 4 if you count Teheran.)

Without looking it up, I bet the “hit rate” on the higher caliber pitchers, who sign 3-plus-year deals, is probably 60 percent or so (but the misses are much more costly.) Remember that almost all free agents are at an age when they are more likely to get worse than better.
 

Can we please pin this post?

[ThisismineScios]

9 minutes ago, Second Base said:

That's the thing though, right now, the success of many individual games is going to come down to Buttrey sitting down the 7th inning, and someone like Guerra coming in and putting out fires in the 6th inning.

That's a bad spot to be in. 

But doesn't that change if Sandoval and Barria slide into the pen? Suddenly you've got decent starters in those bullpen roles, and can fill the back end with guys who so far have been solid--Mayers, Iglesias, Guerra, and Claudio. Buttrey has looked good, so we will see, and you have Pena, Slegers, and Farria as depth. I think the bullpen is average right now and that's a good start. 

[Angel Oracle]

Something to consider: wasn’t the most recent multi-year contract for a reliever Scott Downs (9 years ago)?

Street was on an existing contract when acquired 7 years ago.

Seems that Arte doesn’t like to give multi-years to relievers?

Edited March 19, 2021 by Angel Oracle

[Docwaukee]

16 minutes ago, Angel Oracle said:

Something to consider: wasn’t the most recent multi-year contract for a reliever Scott Downs (9 years ago)?

Street was on an existing contract when acquired 7 years ago.

Seems that Arte doesn’t like to give multi-years to relievers?

doubtful that has anything to do with Arte.  We've had newer GM's the last 10 years.  Characteristically, the newer regime doesn't spend on the pen unless it's for an elite guy.  Or it's been that there have been other areas where you'll get more bang for your buck. I think the feeling among the newer guys is to grab as many arms as possible and hope you can piece something together.  

[Angel Oracle]

52 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

doubtful that has anything to do with Arte.  We've had newer GM's the last 10 years.  Characteristically, the newer regime doesn't spend on the pen unless it's for an elite guy.  Or it's been that there have been other areas where you'll get more bang for your buck. I think the feeling among the newer guys is to grab as many arms as possible and hope you can piece something together.  

I get that for putting together the front half of the pen.

But shouldn’t the back end be more proven?  Right now, only Iglesias has been proven for more than a year.   Mayers has promise based on 2020, but needs to show it for a full season.   Claudio is somewhere in the middle.

Definitely need one more established guy in the back end of the pen. 

Edited March 19, 2021 by Angel Oracle

[tdawg87]

I would definitely like another pitcher but I think people are sleeping on Buttrey. 

It's insane how fickle bullpens are. It's basically a crapshoot. 

[Warfarin]

6 hours ago, Jeff Fletcher said:

The thing with the narrative that “Eppler was bad at signing pitchers on one year deals” is that it is a very small sample. 
 

You’re talking about 0 for 3. (And a case can be made that Teheran wasn’t so much a “miss” as an “incomplete.” The guy got covid, so he pitched with basically no spring training and then he got about 3 games to prove himself before he was chucked in the trash can.)

Also, the evaluation methods they used to pick Cahill and Harvey were the same ones they used to pick Bundy. 
 

Anyway, the overall “hit rate” on that level of pitcher is probably 25-40 percent, so Eppler was really right in there at 1 for 3 (or 1 for 4 if you count Teheran.)

Without looking it up, I bet the “hit rate” on the higher caliber pitchers, who sign 3-plus-year deals, is probably 60 percent or so (but the misses are much more costly.) Remember that almost all free agents are at an age when they are more likely to get worse than better.
 

Jeff, I appreciate this thoughtful response and agree to a degree.

I agree that free agents tend to be hit or miss, but I think there is room for the degree to which they hit or miss.  A miss, for example, could be signing a 2 fWAR type SP and instead they either become more of a 0.5-1 fWAR pitcher or just get hurt and miss most of the year.  It seemed to me that with Eppler, more often than not, he didn't just miss - he missed spectacularly poorly.  Cahill and Teheran were blasted.  Harvey was below replacement level.  Allen was crushed.  On the bright side, as you mentioned, Bundy was much better than expected.

I do acknowledge Eppler started off in a tremendous hole in terms of what he inherited (no farm system, bloated contracts, etc), so he was always going to have to be absolutely spectacular to turn the team around fairly quickly.  I also will say that it's a cruel industry, and most GMs unfortunately only have a "small sample size" of moves to get judged upon.  It's why we see guys get second shots and, sometimes, they do a lot better - perhaps they were just unlucky the first go around.  Overall, I don't think Eppler was bad - I think he was just mediocre on the whole in terms of building the organization, when we needed someone to be really good or great.

Anyway, long story short, I do feel more confident in Minasian's background and what he's building.  He's worked with some of the best FO minds and is used to working on teams with modest or low payrolls.  I look forward to seeing what he can do with this team over the next few years.

[Warfarin]

2 hours ago, tdawg87 said:

I would definitely like another pitcher but I think people are sleeping on Buttrey. 

It's insane how fickle bullpens are. It's basically a crapshoot. 

Yeah, I think we see that same recurring theme over and over again, and it makes sense.  A lot of relievers are pitchers who couldn't quite make it as a SP, usually because they couldn't develop a third effective pitch (and other times for things like injuries, etc).  So they are highly dependent on two pitches that work well, and if one of those pitches takes a step back, they effectively get lit up - and hence, are highly volatile.

Buttrey is someone I think can be very good for us.  If he can recapture his previous form, he's a really dependable high-leverage reliever.  Hard to say how things will pan out, but if he does pitch well, we could have a pretty nifty late inning core.

[Jeff Fletcher]

9 hours ago, Angels 1961 said:

Jeff, has Lagares locked up 4th OF spot. I like Ward to win that job. I feel Ward would be better than Fowler as starting RF.

I think he has. But obviously they won’t say so on the record. 

[Angels 1961]

6 minutes ago, Jeff Fletcher said:

I think he has. But obviously they won’t say so on the record. 

Angels have just givien  Fowler the RF job. Scott Schebler has had a great spring. St Louis could not get rid Fowler fast enough paying almost all his salary.I just would like halos to put best players on the field. I hope Fowler has a great start and I'm wrong.

[Jeff Fletcher]

44 minutes ago, Angels 1961 said:

Angels have just givien  Fowler the RF job. Scott Schebler has had a great spring. St Louis could not get rid Fowler fast enough paying almost all his salary.I just would like halos to put best players on the field. I hope Fowler has a great start and I'm wrong.

They would say you don’t judge the best players by what they do in spring training. It’s a very small sample of fake baseball. 

[Pancake Bear]

11 minutes ago, Jeff Fletcher said:

They would say you don’t judge the best players by what they do in spring training. It’s a very small sample of fake baseball. 

Bieber says Hi.

[Billy_Ball]

On 3/18/2021 at 3:02 AM, Warfarin said:

I said it before, but Eppler had the right idea, targeting one-year deals for pitchers, but poor executive - he targeted poor choices that flamed out horribly.

Minasian went after Quintana, who has a very durable, strong history, and only had an off-year due to a freak accident.  I don't know how he'll ultimately pitch, but he should, at worst, be a very stable #4 SP and provide significant innings.  Looks like a fantastic signing.

To be fair, Teheran was pretty consistent and durable for the Braves before Eppler signed him.  And he has a 2.00 ERA this spring (9 IP/ 12 Ks).