Trade Idea: Joey Gallo and Lance Lynn

[totdprods]

Jo Adell for both Gallo and Lynn? Thoughts? Even though I'm pitching this idea, it's not necessarily one I'm crazy about, but for some reason, keep coming back to. At first blush it feels like a HELL NO (for both sides), but considering the risk of Adell busting (and his still enormous potential) and the question marks (and again, potential) of Gallo and Lynn, I can see it balancing out.

For the Angels...

• They'd gain an immediate rotation boost without taking on much salary, only $9.5m for '21 and last year of contract. 
• A Gold Glove caliber RF with two years of control who should put up at least an .850 OPS and 35 HR, and cheap $5.5m arb. salary. 
  • Could also spot other positions in a pinch, or move to 1B if Walsh winds up being a flash in the pan and if Marsh is ready.
• They lose one of their best trade pieces in Adell, and only get three seasons of control back for him, not to mention losing his control and potential. 
• Lynn faltered a bit near end of season, and Gallo has had a couple mediocre, injured seasons. There is definitely some risk neither work out.

For the Rangers...

• Gain a prospect back that is likely significantly better than what they could hope for in dealing either Lynn or Gallo...but that's all they get back. 
  • Would they be better off dealing for quality or quantity and moving them in separate deals?
• They shed some money, and lose their best two trade pieces/stars going into a season where they're still likely hoping to draw to a new stadium. 

And, could a deal be expanded? The Rangers have quite a few promising arms that could work out of the Angels' pen. Hernandez, Hearn, Joely Rodriguez could be a fit. Could the Rangers offer Robles a chance to close and rebuild value? Could the Angels clean up the 40-man/AAA depth and involve Thaiss, Suarez, Rojas, Jones, Middleton?

On paper, I still think this deal favors the Rangers, but looking at the offseason in a bigger picture, I start to feel otherwise. 

1. The Angels gain a big upgrade in the offense and the rotation, enough to justifiably be favorites for the division. 
2. It only adds ~$15m in '21 salary...presumably plenty of room for further improvements to the rotation, bullpen, or depth. 
3. They keep the farm intact, losing only one player. 
4. Flexibility beyond - no huge contracts, both Gallo and Lynn could be traded quite easily, or even extended. 

[Bronson]

I don’t like it. Seems like this would be a real undersell for Adell. This is the kind of trade that ends up haunting a franchise if it doesn’t work out. I’d rather keep banking on Adell and use other prospects as trade chips for a starter. 

 

There’s just too much upside to Adell to give him up for that.

[Brandon]

Brandon Wood had the same upside and potential.

Doing some rough math off the top of my head, the likelihood of prospects panning out is so slim that I usually say go with proven talent. I'm not opposed to trading Adell, but he's talked about like Wood was and I remember there was a legit conversation about him being involved for Manny Ramirez. I'd aim a little higher with potential suitors. 

[Yes We Can]

I don't think the Rangers would come close to doing it. Adell is nothing but a big question mark right now. He may end up in SLC to start the season.

Actually, I don't like it that much for the Angels either. Gallo has a career 38% K rate and two years of control. Lance Lynn would be a really great addition but he's a FA in 2022 and it will be tough to re-sign him. He currently has an assignment bonus in his contract if he is traded to a club on the west coast.

[Second Base]

Heck no.

When it comes down to simple player value, Adell is way more valuable. 

1. Lynn is a good pitcher, not a great pitcher. Those can be acquired without a top 5 overall prospect.

2. Gallo is going to be very good, he's almost there already. But on a yearly basis, Adell projects to be better because he should be a better defender, with greater value on the bases and hit for a higher average.

3. Lynn costs money, so does Gallo. Team control is limited to two years. 5+ years of Adell.

[angelsnationtalk]

Very risky. Obviously it's the "potential" that we all fear of losing with Adell.

Although comparably, Adell has potential massive power and Gallo has proven power
Adell has potential great outfield potential and Gallo has proven outfield potential with an incredible arm. 

It's risky since it puts a potential top prospect on a different team in our division, but no one knows how Adell will turn out. 

The more and more I think about it, the more I like it if maybe some other players can be involved.  
As of right now, I'd take Gallo in the lineup any day over Adell.

Fletcher, Trout, Rendon, Gallo, Ohtani, Upton, Walsh, Stassi, Rengifo? Sign me up

[totdprods]

10 minutes ago, Yes We Can said:

I don't think the Rangers would come close to doing it. Adell is nothing but a big question mark right now. He may end up in SLC to start the season.

Actually, I don't like it that much for the Angels either. Gallo has a career 38% K rate and two years of control. Lance Lynn would be a really great addition but he's a FA in 2022 and it will be tough to re-sign him. He currently has an assignment bonus in his contract if he is traded to a club on the west coast.

Lynn's assignment bonus is $100k. Easily paid by either Texas or LA. 

Adell has a career 42% K rate too...of course, huge difference in sample size, but it's not like strikeouts aren't a concern with Adell. Strikeout rates league-wide are pretty crazy that while Gallo strikes out a ton, it isn't as huge of a deal as it was once perceived to be. 

Gallo also walks at a 14% rate, which is right up there with Rendon and Trout. Gallo is also superior defensively - for now. 

But I agree in that the Rangers might be just as wary as the Angels would be. Adell could be a perennial MVP candidate, he could be a bust. 

Should it come to fruition, I actually would have little interest in re-signing Lynn - I think he could turn into a pumpkin as soon as 2021 - but I could see a bit of interest in a Gallo extension for both parties, being that he's from Nevada and could lean West Coast. Keep in mind, Joey Gallo will only be 27 next year, and is only a few months older than David Fletcher. He could (should?) be entering his prime, and maybe without the pressure of being the only real big bat in Texas, could flourish here.

[totdprods]

12 minutes ago, Second Base said:

Heck no.

When it comes down to simple player value, Adell is way more valuable. 

1. Lynn is a good pitcher, not a great pitcher. Those can be acquired without a top 5 overall prospect.

2. Gallo is going to be very good, he's almost there already. But on a yearly basis, Adell projects to be better because he should be a better defender, with greater value on the bases and hit for a higher average.

3. Lynn costs money, so does Gallo. Team control is limited to two years. 5+ years of Adell.

Key word is projects. I know you know this, but Lewis Brinson, Cameron Maybin, Brandon Wood, Lastings Milledge...
What's a likely upper-tier outcome for Adell? 35 HR, great defense, .950 OPS? That's 2019 Joey Gallo.

Yeah, Lynn and Gallo cost money...but for what they could provide, they're an absolute bargain. Only $15m in salary added leaves the Angels plenty of money to keep improving the team, and if Adell is the only real piece, they aren't creating any holes either. Gallo replaces him now, Marsh replaces either later (or Upton). 

They should still have money for Stroman, perhaps even Bauer if it was structured appropriately, or could spread it around 2B/SS, C, and bullpen pretty easily. 

I totally get the appeal in holding onto Adell, he's the future, he's cheap, all the arguments, but there's still, perhaps now more than ever, a distinct window of contention here with a prime Trout, Rendon, and ideally Ohtani. At some point the present might have to outweigh what Adell could be doing for cheap in 2024, and I see this as being a reasonable gamble for both Texas and LA, but of course, a massive gamble no less. 

I get back to the other main point I like, aside from the relative cheap salary commitments for Gallo and Lynn, is that it allows the Angels to keep pretty much all of their farm intact. Yes, you sacrifice Black Trout, but by now we should all see that Mike Trout cannot carry a team on his own. It takes a farm. You deal Adell here, one guy, and you keep your farm still, you start to open up a roadmap that allows the Angels to upgrade the rotation and upgrade the offense one move, have money left over, and still keep their farm in place. That's incredibly compelling to me. 

[Dtwncbad]

I guess if Phil Plantier/ Ed Whitsen package doesn’t pan out.

I would get pretty sick of watching Gallo’s “fat guys that think they are buff, backwards hat, slow pitch softball league” approach at the plate.

Edited November 3, 2020 by Dtwncbad

[Erstad Grit]

For me this doesn't make sense for either team. 

[Angels 1961]

You do not trade your best prospect in your division. 

[Lazorko Saves]

22 hours ago, Dtwncbad said:

I would get pretty sick of watching Gallo’s “fat guys that think they are buff, backwards hat, slow pitch softball league” approach at the plate.

Yeah no thanks on that left-handed Rob Deer clone.

[Lazorko Saves]

Sorry, did I say Rob Deer clone?  I meant Glenn Quagmire clone.

[stormngt]

On 11/3/2020 at 12:29 PM, Brandon said:

Brandon Wood had the same upside and potential.

Doing some rough math off the top of my head, the likelihood of prospects panning out is so slim that I usually say go with proven talent. I'm not opposed to trading Adell, but he's talked about like Wood was and I remember there was a legit conversation about him being involved for Manny Ramirez. I'd aim a little higher with potential suitors. 

I do not September Wood being involved for Manny Ramirez.  I do remember his name involved in Muguel Cabrera. 

[Yes We Can]

1 hour ago, Angels 1961 said:

You do not trade your best prospect in your division. 

True. I also don't think you trade your best power hitter, who has two more years of team control, within your division.

I don't think this proposal would end up getting done by either team.

[Brandon]

1 hour ago, stormngt said:

I do not September Wood being involved for Manny Ramirez.  I do remember his name involved in Muguel Cabrera. 

There were both trade options. Both were speculated, but I don't think anything was concrete in either trade scenario.

If I remember correct, it was when Boston was having issues with him and wanted to dump his salary. Then they put him on waivers which no one claimed to which they ended up trading him to the Dodgers.

There are a bunch of trade rumors involving him that aren't verified on Google....some I don't even really remember talking about.