OC Register: Hoornstra: Baseball awards voting deserves less numerical approach in 2020

[AngelsWin.com]

Back in July, I asked Walker Buehler about the meaning of a Cy Young Award in a 60-game season.

“It doesn’t matter to me, to be honest with you,” he said. “Individual stuff, more than normal, takes a back seat this year.”

Last week, Mookie Betts echoed a similar thought about the MVP award: “You can’t think about those things and think about the game as well.”

That may be true for players, but the voting members of the Baseball Writers Association of America still have to vote. We still have to reckon with all the weirdness of the season. Three sets of awards – one each for the West, Central and East divisions – would more accurately reflect the way baseball is played in 2020. As it is, the San Diego Padres might claim three National League awards without playing 10 teams in their own league.

I take an exhaustive approach to my ballot in a typical year, regardless of which award I’m assigned. Some statistics (earned-run average for pitchers, RBIs for hitters) are more descriptive than predictive. The more predictive stats (Baseball Prospectus’ Deserved Runs Average and Deserved Runs Created are two of my favorites) are great for covering the blind spots. There are simply too many baseball statistics to leave major blind spots uncovered over a 162-game season, so filling out a satisfying ballot isn’t hard.

A 60-game season is different. Traditional stats have blind spots the size of semitrucks. Take Jacob deGrom, who’s having another typically excellent season for the Mets. Four of his 11 starts have come against the Marlins, so his 1.50 earned-run average against one team will account for roughly one-third of his final ERA.

Looking to the predictive stats isn’t as satisfying either. Aaron Nola, 13th in the National League in ERA (3.06), is leading all starting pitchers in DRA (2.43). If Nola made 30 starts this season, I imagine the gap between his ERA and DRA would shrink – but how? The answer makes all the difference on a ballot.

The moral here: Pity the poor sap assigned an NL Cy Young vote in 2020.

Oh, wait. That’s me.

In truth, the same limits apply to every awards race. Handicapping requires an only-in-2020 prerequisite: A player’s stats can’t tell a comprehensive story for purposes of comparison to his peers. Narrative – that wishy-washy word that makes sabermetricians shudder – matters more in a season like this. What does it mean, exactly? Follow along as I break down my picks for each award. (I’ll withhold my choice for the NL Cy Young race until my actual ballot is out.)

AL MVP

White Sox first baseman Jose Abreu and Indians third baseman Jose Ramirez are the top contenders. (FanGraphs’ version of WAR favors Ramirez, while Baseball Reference prefers Abreu.) This isn’t a lifetime achievement award, but a little context helps put their performances in perspective.

Abreu has been a steady hitter and leader on the directionless White Sox teams of years past. He’s hit 25 homers and driven in 100 runs in five of his six seasons. Now, with the Sox in contention for a division title, Abreu is having a career year. Through Wednesday, he led the AL in hits, RBIs, slugging, and total bases. Over 162 games, he’d be on track for a .329 average, 55 homers and 165 RBIs.

Ramirez’s 17th home run of 2020 walked off the White Sox in the 10th inning Tuesday and clinched a playoff berth for the Indians. They were teetering until Ramirez lifted the team on his shoulders, driving in 16 runs in his last seven games through Wednesday. That counts for a lot in such a short season.

My pick is Abreu, a less streaky player in his career than Ramirez and the spiritual leader of a more talented team. Honorable mention to Cleveland pitcher Shane Bieber and Yankees second baseman DJ LeMahieu.

AL Cy Young

The winner will be Bieber. It won’t be close.

The right-hander leads the world with an 8-1 record, a 1.63 ERA, and an unfathomable 122 strikeouts in 77 ⅓ innings. Deserved Runs Average and both versions of WAR agree Bieber is the best pitcher in his league. That doesn’t happen often. Lance Lynn (6-2, 2.53), Dallas Keuchel (6-2, 2.04) and Kenta Maeda (6-1, 2.70) deserve down-ballot votes.

AL Rookie of the Year

The pool of candidates is so diverse, a voter can forge a choice based on preference.

If outstanding defense at a premier position tickles your fancy, go with White Sox center fielder Luis Robert. If you like starting pitchers who answer the bell every fifth day, Mariners right-hander Justus Sheffield (4-3, 3.75 ERA) has you covered. If unhittable relief pitching is your thing, pick Cleveland’s James Karinchak, who’s averaged nearly two strikeouts per inning in 26 appearances.

Robert is no slouch at the plate either, but the better hitter is Mariners center fielder Kyle Lewis. He’s batted third or fourth in every game, played competent defense, and is a much tougher out: Lewis carried a .378 OBP to Robert’s .291 through Tuesday. Barring a late surge by Robert, Lewis is the pick.

AL Manager of the Year

Six teams have clinched playoff berths as of this writing. Three of their managers (Oakland’s Bob Melvin, Cleveland’s Terry Francona, Minnesota’s Rocco Baldelli) have won this award before. Three (Tampa Bay’s Kevin Cash, the Yankees’ Aaron Boone, the White Sox’s Rick Renteria) have not. Each has a valid case.

The Rays are on pace for their best regular-season winning percentage ever. They’re doing it while overachieving their run differential. That sometimes testifies to a manager’s ability to win close games; some do it better than others. That’s more meaningful over a 162-game season, and I’m going with a more sentimental pick: Renteria oversaw the lean years on Chicago’s South Side and deserves to be rewarded for the White Sox’s resurgence.

NL MVP

In 2019, Cody Bellinger was the best offensive and defensive player on the best team in the National League. Until recently, his obvious successor was Padres shortstop Fernando Tatís Jr.

Tatís is still the Padres’ best defender by Outs Above Average, but he is no longer their best hitter. Through Tuesday, Manny Machado had the superior batting average, OBP and slugging percentage. The two are basically even in terms of WAR. That muddies the leader in “value” no matter how you define it.

Back to the drawing board. Baseball Reference and FanGraphs are split on the NL leader in WAR. The former prefers Dodgers right fielder Mookie Betts; the latter likes Braves first baseman Freddie Freeman. Freeman is the better hitter, while Betts brings more value as a fielder and baserunner.

For many of the same reasons that led me to Abreu, I’m leaning toward Betts. He’s a clubhouse leader on a better team, and stands out more from his teammates compared to Freeman. It would be Betts’ second MVP award and his first in the National League.

NL Rookie of the Year

Just like the American League, there’s a candidate here for every voting preference.

Jake Cronenworth has been arguably the Padres’ third-best hitter while providing plus defense at second base. The Phillies’ Alec Bohm has a superior batting average, OBP and slugging percentage to Cronenworth, minus the glovework. Dodger pitchers Tony Gonsolin and Dustin May have been good to great every fifth day, while left-hander Devin Williams has been the NL equivalent of Karinchak out of the Brewers’ bullpen.

The safe pick is Cronenworth, but this isn’t the year to play it safe. The more dominant player is Williams, who has struck out 52 batters in 25 innings while allowing only one earned run.

NL Manager of the Year

A young, mostly anonymous Marlins team is 28-28 and in playoff position. They’re thriving despite a negative run differential and a coronavirus outbreak that threatened to torpedo their season early.

If Mattingly deserved criticism for failing to safeguard against the outbreak in the first place, he deserves even more praise for how well the Marlins rebounded. No NL manager has done more with less. Since the Rockies faded from the picture in mid-August, it isn’t close.

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