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MLB Rumors: ‘Industry Expectation’ Is Gerrit Cole Will Sign With This Team (Olney says Angels)


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4 minutes ago, Lou said:

From the article...

" It’s obvious there’s some level of interest. But it’s equally clear there are significant barriers to Cole donning pinstripes. "

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So not that payroll has restricted the yankees in the past, but here's a look at where they stand:

Their total luxury tax number for 2019 was about 233m  which means they pay 20% on the overage from 206-226 which is 4m and another 32% on the amount above 226 until it gets to 246m.  So it's 32% on 226-233 which is another 2.25m.  So their total penalty is about 6.25m for 2019 and they would also bump into the 30% bracket for 2020 should they go over again.  

So far for 2020:

They've got 162m in salary committed to 10 players if they pay the 5m buyout to encarnacion assuming they don't exercise his 20m option.  about 154m of that is AAV to the CBT.  

They've got another 36m or so in estimated arb payments.  Total at 198m and for the CBT 190m

Another 7m in pre arb estimates plus another 2m for 40 man players in the minors which puts them at 207m and 199m respectively. 

Add 15m to the CBT number for benefits and they're at 207m and 214m respectively.    The CBT number threshold for 2020 is 208m.  

Their losses are Encarnacion, Gregorious, Gardner, Betances, Romine, Sabathia and Cory Gearrin.

They'll get German back at some point although who knows if he'll receive how long his suspension will be

Andujar will also return which makes it less likely that they re-sign Didi.  

So what do they need?

Their lineup is pretty set with 

DJ at 2b
Judge in RF
Torres at SS
Hicks CF
POS at C
Stanton in LF
Andujar at 3b
Bird/Voit at 1b
DH is TBD although one of their 1bmen could play DH. 

Urshela on the bench along with Mike Ford (who could also DH) and Clint Frazier as their 4th OFer who could also push any of their other OFers to DH.  

So their only lineup need is really a backup C.  

Their rotation is Tanaka, Paxton, Severino, and that's about it

Their pen is pretty good even without Betances.  I thought Chapman had an opt out but I'm sure they'll take care of that.  

So there is good news and bad news.  They're gonna be looking for starting pitching for sure.  

If they added a guy like Cole, it would bring their CBT up to about 247m for 2020 and they probably still need another rotation arm.  Plus a backup C assuming they don't do anything to their lineup.  They've probably got the depth to pull off a trade of moving Frazier and Andujar for a really nice pitcher if they wanted but that still leaves in the 250m range to complete their team when all is said and done.   

Where that becomes important is that if they exceed the CBT threshold by more than 40m then their first round pick moves back 10 spots.  Probably not a huge deal to them but something to consider.  

Things loosen up a bit for them in 2021 though but they lose Tanaka, Paxton and LeMahieu.  They do have a couple arms about ready to go in Deivi Garcia and Clarke Schmidt but I doubt they rely on a bunch of rookies to fill out their rotation going forward.  

So the good news is that while I think they'll be in on Cole, they likely won't break the bank because of their current payroll which is less of a concern to them probably than the fact that their rotation needs more than one guy going forward.  

The bad news is that they're gonna be in on everyone the Angels are looking at for pitching help.  Especially the guys after Cole.  It actually wouldn't surprise me to see them take two names off the market very quickly like Wheeler and Odorizzi or Hamels.  

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