Near term AL West

[Inside Pitch]

As Angels fans we typically obsess about what the Halos are doing or will need to do to improve or  keep pace.   All this talk about what we should be doing at the deadline made me look at the rest of the AL West to try to get an idea of how our near term future lines up with the rest of the division..  

The Astros have been the kings of the AL West since 2017, but they are staring down some pretty significant decisions.   Bregman and Altuve have already been locked up, the Altuve deal has to be a bit worrisome for them as it doesn't kick in until next year when his salary goes from 9 mil to 29 mil and he's seeing his performance dip (113 OPS).  The Astros have 138 mil in standing obligations in 20, (100 mil in 2021).  But their near term is where it gets interesting Correa and Springer are heading towards paydays via arbitration and Gerrit Cole leads a long list of pending FAs this year with more to follow the next season.

Consider this..

C - Chirinos 2.6, SP - Cole 3.0, SP - Miley 2.6, SP/RP McHugh 0.1, RP - Rondon 0.1, RP - Harris 0.9, RP - Smith 0.1 are all FAs

That's 9.4 bWAR (through today), of performance with expiring contracts and an additional 12.4 bWAR the following season.

OF - Springer 3.3, OF - Brantley 3.3, OF - Reddick 1.3, OF - Marisnick 1.8, 1B - Gurriel 1.5, SP/RP - Peacock 1.2

All told they are looking to maybe replace an entire OF, and 3/5th of the their current rotation.   They have Yordan Alvarez ready to step in and Tucker in AAA so the OF situation may not be dire but it's a pretty massive potential exodus of talent or a significant uptick in salary to keep some of them around.  Still, how often does a team successfully replace that much production over the course of 18 months?  To put it in a different light...  the Angels biggest potential FA the next two years is Simba.... that's it.  Things didn't look as bad a year ago when Josh James came up and dominated at the end of the year and Whitley looked absolutely monstrous to close out the year, but 2019 has played out a little differently for both of them.

Looking at the rest of the AL West it's pretty interesting

Texas has an offense featuring all of two everyday players putting up even league average numbers.  Their rotation has surprised for most of the year but they are a league average unit as a whole with Minor a FA next year if he isn't dealt.   They will be moving into a new park and will have money to spend, Cots has them at 97 mil in 20 and 58 mil in 21 -- so, they aren't saddled with contracts -- but Gallo gets his first taste of arbitration this year and is likely to get expensive in a hurry.  My guess is he is the next guy to get locked up long term but they will have to spend because their farm system is tapped out at the middle and upper levels.  They have Willie Calhoun and a whole lot of nothing in AAA.  Leody Taveras isn't doing anything in AA.  Juan Pablo Martinez is Baldoquin-ing in Low A.  Bubba Thompson has been hurt and awful in High A and Anderson Tejeda had regressed in his second year of high A.

Seattle's offense has been good to really good depending on how you want to view it. As a team they have a 104 OPS+.  They are smack in the middle of a rebuild.  They have done a really good job of restocking their farm system but at the cost of their MLB team.  The only guys currently on the team that figure to be a part of the team when it's ready to compete/spend are likely Haniger, SS JP Crawford and C Omar Narveaz, and Narveaz is likely trade bait if they can get a deal done given he will have exausted all of his arbitration years by 2022.   Mallex Smith has been much better since June but like Narveaz he will have exhausted all of his arb years by 2022.   Their only pitcher of merit under control is Marco Gonzales.  They have Kikuchi locked up via options through 2025 if they so please but how likely are they to commit 66 mil from 2022-25 to a guy sporting an ERA over 5.00 and even uglier peripherals.   They will be extremely reliant on all of their recent trade assets and draft picks to hit -- Dunn, Sheffield, Gilbert, Kirby.    They have a couple years still before their farm is really capable of helping their position players -- Shed Long is probably the closest.  Evan White and Jake Fraley soon after most likely.   The M's farn can be difficult to project using numbers because of how jacked up their AA park is -- place has a HR index of 70 and 52 (100 is average).   So, their pitchers will look better than they are, their hitters worse, but the bigger picture is they have a lot to do still and while they will have payroll space they have historically been reluctant to spend, and have had to overpay to get guys to go there.   

So that leaves us with Oakland, who may have more already in place than anyone this side of Houston and aren't in danger of losing anyone unless they start trading off again.  Their only real pending FA's are Bretty Anderson, Homer Bailey and Marco Estrada.  The only guys they stand to lose after next year are Fiers, Trenien, Semien and Profar.  I can see them working out a fair deal with Profar but the rest are all possible trade bait to keep their window going.   The two Matt's won't see arbitration until 2021, so those guys aren't going anywhere anytime soon, Laureano not until 2022.  Piscotti is locked up to a team friendly deal, Canha has a couple more years of arbitration..   They have Puk, Luzardo, Barretto, Murphy and Dustin Fowler waiting in the wings and all likely ready to help as soon as now...   So as usual, they aren't likely to spend much but they are pretty well positioned to compete..

Mostly... I think we all need to take a deeper look at where the AL West is heading and what teams are likely or capable of doing.   As bad as things look at times the Angels situation isn't as bleak as it has been and 2020 may end up looking a lot like 2015 did -- where we begin to see the balance of power in the AL West begin to shift as the talent moves around a bit.  
 

Edited July 21, 2019 by Inside Pitch

[Angelsjunky]

I would think Houston would extend Springer and Correa. An outfield of Alvarez-Springer-Tucker isn't really a downgrade from what they currenlty have, maybe even slightly better long-term. I suppose upcoming arb and free agency might make it more difficult for them to extend a big offer to Cole, so that could help the Angels. 

I suspect 2020 will be the last year that the Astros are clearly dominant. Starting next year, but more so in 2021, you could have a much more competitive division, with all five teams being at least somewhat competitive. 

Of course we have another re-alignment to look forward to, if MLB expands. We could have a four team "AL Pacific" division with the Angels, Mariners, Portland, and Oakland.

[Second Base]

 Great write up @Inside Pitch I see much of the same.

Houston has deep pockets and a formerly deep farm. That's good for them because they'll need every penny to maintain a competitive team. But this is a smart organization, they won't just disappear. But they will fade. Houston will need things to break their way to remain atop The division.

Texas also has deep pockets, but they're talent poor, top to bottom. They're still 5 years away from being a playoff team in my opinion. Everything has gone their way and they still aren't a playoff team this year.

Oakland is not going anywhere. They've got some big guns coming up soon, but I think this will be offset by their offense cratering in the future. The two Matt's are something to build around, but peripherals suggest Laureano's performance isn't sustainable, Khris Davis is trending in the wrong direction, Piscotty had come back down to earth and the rest are simply role players. They'll perennially be good but not great.

Seattle's major league team sucks, their farm system sucks, and their front office is just the worst. That team won't finish above .500 for at least 6 or 7 years. It's that bad there.

The Angels have the offense in place, and a strong farm. No team outside of Toronto and San Diego  has graduated as much talent as the Angels this year. Fletcher (officially), Rengifo, Thaiss, Walsh, Canning and Buttrey. There's much more on the way too. But they lack elite pitching, and are going to be reliant in trades or free agency to acquire that pitching. There's depth, like Barria, Suarez and Sandoval. But outside of Chris Rodriguez and Jose Soriano, there's not as much upside as they need.  The Angels can win the division in 2020, in fact they can make the playoffs pretty much every foreseeable year in 2020 and beyond, but it all falls squarely on their ability to acquire pitching. If they can do it, they win. If they can't, then there will be a lot of .500 teams in the next decade.