Trend, innings pitched SP vs RP

[floplag]

Came across this on twitter, in the last 5 years the trend towards relievers pitching more innings has gone way up.   I found this quite interesting. 

 

[jessecrall]

This team won a World Series with JARROD WASHBURN as its ace. The 2015 Royals had a similarly uninspiring crop of starters. A reliable bullpen and a good defense can make a pretty mediocre collection of starters look better than they are, now more than ever. Health and depth are bigger concerns than landing some front-line ace for $20+ million a year.

[kevinb]

There’s multiple ways to win. 

[Pancake Bear]

5 minutes ago, jessecrall said:

This team won a World Series with JARROD WASHBURN as its ace. The 2015 Royals had a similarly uninspiring crop of starters. A reliable bullpen and a good defense can make a pretty mediocre collection of starters look better than they are, now more than ever. Health and depth are bigger concerns than landing some front-line ace for $20+ million a year.

We tried that approach this year.  You can survive with average starters, but if they can’t make it through 5 innings, even a good bullpen is going to look like crap. Pretending that the bullpen is the problem and the rotation is mostly fine is about the most delusional thing I can imagine a fan thinking, and that’s saying something considering how far we as fans tend to be adrift from reality in our biases. 

[jessecrall]

12 minutes ago, Sean-Regan said:

We tried that approach this year.  You can survive with average starters, but if they can’t make it through 5 innings, even a good bullpen is going to look like crap. Pretending that the bullpen is the problem and the rotation is mostly fine is about the most delusional thing I can imagine a fan thinking, and that’s saying something considering how far we as fans tend to be adrift from reality in our biases. 

I said health and depth are bigger concerns than landing an ace. I certainly did not say the rotation is mostly fine. 

[floplag]

7 minutes ago, Sean-Regan said:

We tried that approach this year.  You can survive with average starters, but if they can’t make it through 5 innings, even a good bullpen is going to look like crap. Pretending that the bullpen is the problem and the rotation is mostly fine is about the most delusional thing I can imagine a fan thinking, and that’s saying something considering how far we as fans tend to be adrift from reality in our biases. 

I dont think anyone is suggesting that at all. 
Last year wasnt indicative of anything, we started the season with a shoddy pen and 2/3 of an offense to go along with a group of pitchers that were not innings eaters.  Thats not really proving anything 
My personal belief for a long time now is that superstar SP are super overrated and super over payed.  You need good ones, you dont need great ones.  you can win with middle of the road to better than average starting pitching if other areas are of better quality.  

[kevinb]

Boston had the number 1 offense and a top 5 era from their pitchers. 

[floplag]

1 hour ago, Kevinb said:

Boston had the number 1 offense and a top 5 era from their pitchers. 

Bos was #8 from its starters overall in mlb, #5 in AL to be specific.    Their bullpen was also #4 in the AL ERA wise, and #9 overall 
They had all areas covered, which is why they were so dominant. 

I forgot to mention, they were also #1 in payroll, by over 20 Mil, just sayin  

[Hubs]

With Bullpen specialization, and trying to strike guys out more instead of putting the ball in play, and the dreaded pitch count, the number of innings expected by the starter is down.

But still...15-21 outs has got to be the goal for the SP.  Basically it's through the batting order 3 times through the order depending on how many people get on base. Considering a WHIP of 0.85 is considered elite, and 1.0 is dominant, whereas 1.2 is probably average and 1.4 poor to bad... Through 5 IP, the a 1.2 WHIP starter will likely have faced the lineup at least twice, probably would be facing the #5/6 batter to open the 6th.

Getting through that 6th inning if the starter is throwing a 1.2 WHIP means the top of the lineup is likely coming up at the top of the 7th, and it's likely time for the pen to step in. If the starter threw to a 1.4 or worse WHIP,  they'd be opening the 6th with the #7 or #8 batter, meaning the top of the lineup is coming up again, for the 4th time.

Now on the other end, say the pitcher is dealing, and is throwing a 0.60 or lower whip for the first 5 IP. That means they are just starting to face the lineup again in the top of the 6th for the 3rd time. This would allow the pitcher to get through the 6th and into the 7th or 8th.

You can look at any hitter and see that they don't typically face the starter for a 4th time because when they do, they typically hit a lot better.

Granted, in a perfect game, it's only three times through the order and that's obviously a 0.0 WHIP... but yeah, dominant starts the guy should still be pitching later.

But in a game where the starter has given up say 2 runs, and had 8 runners on base in the 5th, that's a 1.4 WHIP, and he's not likely to pitch into the 7th, with all of the bp specialization the way he once was. He may not even get through the 6th, despite allowing only 2 runs.

 

[floplag]

13 minutes ago, Hubs said:

With Bullpen specialization, and trying to strike guys out more instead of putting the ball in play, and the dreaded pitch count, the number of innings expected by the starter is down.

But still...15-21 outs has got to be the goal for the SP.  Basically it's through the batting order 3 times through the order depending on how many people get on base. Considering a WHIP of 0.85 is considered elite, and 1.0 is dominant, whereas 1.2 is probably average and 1.4 poor to bad... Through 5 IP, the a 1.2 WHIP starter will likely have faced the lineup at least twice, probably would be facing the #5/6 batter to open the 6th.

Getting through that 6th inning if the starter is throwing a 1.2 WHIP means the top of the lineup is likely coming up at the top of the 7th, and it's likely time for the pen to step in. If the starter threw to a 1.4 or worse WHIP,  they'd be opening the 6th with the #7 or #8 batter, meaning the top of the lineup is coming up again, for the 4th time.

Now on the other end, say the pitcher is dealing, and is throwing a 0.60 or lower whip for the first 5 IP. That means they are just starting to face the lineup again in the top of the 6th for the 3rd time. This would allow the pitcher to get through the 6th and into the 7th or 8th.

You can look at any hitter and see that they don't typically face the starter for a 4th time because when they do, they typically hit a lot better.

Granted, in a perfect game, it's only three times through the order and that's obviously a 0.0 WHIP... but yeah, dominant starts the guy should still be pitching later.

But in a game where the starter has given up say 2 runs, and had 8 runners on base in the 5th, that's a 1.4 WHIP, and he's not likely to pitch into the 7th, with all of the bp specialization the way he once was. He may not even get through the 6th, despite allowing only 2 runs.

 

AS you well know, that means 5-7 innings, thats a large range really.
The top pitching team in the league, Hou, averaged under 6 IP from its starters.  955 innings from 182 games = 5.89.    Good pitching doesn't necessarily mean going deeper into game anymore, its being more effective when you are in there. 
There is a much deeper reliance on the bullpen to carry its weight. 
The game is changing moire than just offense with analytics, a few more years and SP mega deal will be significantly more rare. 

[tdawg87]

A reliable staff gets you into the playoffs. A lockdown pen gets you through them.

[ettin]

2 minutes ago, tdawg87 said:

A reliable staff gets you into the playoffs. A lockdown pen gets you through them.

Who knew you had such concise wisdom inside of you?