Getting to the playoffs in 2019 (by the numbers)

[Troll Daddy]

It's the little things that gets teams like the Angels into the playoffs.

[Hubs]

On 11/14/2018 at 9:33 PM, Dochalo said:

Here's how we project by position (and our rank vs. other AL teams):

C - 1.8 WAR (25th)
1b - 0.2 WAR (28th)
2b - 2.1 WAR (18th)
SS - 4.3 WAR (6th)
3b - 3.2 WAR (9th)
LF - 2.5 WAR (11th)
CF - 9.3 WAR (1st by 5 WAR lol)
RF - 2.0 WAR (16th)
DH - 3.5 WAR (1st)

SP - 8.2 WAR (19th)
RP - 1.2 WAR (26th) 

So obvious positions of upgrade are C, 1b, SP,  RP and maybe 2b or RF.  

 

I think you're right on, and the numbers show you to be right so there's that.

Here's where I see them spending.

C - Wilson Ramos is not attached to a qualifying offer, and Briceno has options. Getting 108 starts out of Ramos is great, but he may want to DH or play 1st once a week, and they don't have the room at DH. At 1st, I have another solution. I've seen between 1 year 8 M and 3 years 36M, so somewhere between that is ok by me. You say 3.5 WAR, I think it will be a little higher with Ramos and Smith, and that's gonna be 3.7.

1B - Adding Marwin Gonzalez for 3 starts a week at 1st and 1-2 a week at other positions would really help things offensively. He'd likely increase the WAR at 1st to around 2.0, and in RF to about 3.0. His BABIP dropped in 2018 from .343 which is a little high to .301 which is around league average. He was a 2.5 WAR player though even in his down offensive year last year, so hopefully he can rebound a bit. I see 120-125 starts for him, which is 4.5 per week, which is about right. He'll play in most games though as a pinch hitter and defensive replacement.

2B - Steamer has the projection here for Cozart a lot higher mainly because of defense, but I can see 3 WAR here. I also see no one regularly starting here, as if you say split it between Fletcher and Cozart, with a few Gonzalez starts here as well, you'd be looking at say 75 games a piece at 2nd. Then at SS, Simmons gets likely 152  starts minimum. Say Fletcher and Simmons split those too. 80 games each. Then Ward plays say 82 at 3rd, and Fletcher and Cozart split the other probably 45-35 in favor of Cozart meaning, he ends up with 125 and Fletcher with 115, and Ward 80. Fletcher and Ward are likely to swap back and forth in AAA as well, and Fernandez also plays. It's a crowded group and I haven't even mentioned Renfigo.

CF - A little low as Trout has been closer to 10 WAR most seasons. LOL.

RF - Covered a bit in the Marwin Gonzalez mention, but he makes RF better by limiting Calhoun to 4-5 starts a week, which may take him out of slumps when Scioscia would just keep trotting him out.

SP - I like adding a veteran, but I fear that puts us past $30M, but I think they have to do that anyway. Spending $16M on offense means they have to get two arms for $14, which can't really happen unless they trade for one and sign one. While I like Eovaldi and Corbin and Keuchel, I don't see them signing a player with a qualifying offer attached, so Kikuchi makes sense. As does trading for Sonny Gray.