OC Register: Angels confident they can get hot, vie for playoff spot

[AngelsWin.com]

ANAHEIM — Math suggests the Angels open the second half without much chance to make the playoffs. FanGraphs calculates their playoff chances at 2.8 percent.

History, however, offers more hope, at least in Ian Kinsler’s eyes.

“There’s always a team every year that makes a run for the wild card that kind of sneaks up on people,” the Angels second baseman said. “I think definitely we’re one of the teams that can put together a really good second half and be right in the mix at the end.”

Kinsler points to the Minnesota Twins just a year ago. They were 45-43 at the All-Star break and then they traded their closer, falling to 50-53 by the trading deadline. They ended up finishing 86-76 and winning the second wild card.

Two years earlier, the Texas Rangers were 42-46 at the break, and they finished 88-74 to win the American League West. That same year, the Toronto Blue Jays were 45-46 at the break, and they finished 93-69 to win the always-tough AL East.

Recent examples like those buoy the hopes of the Angels, who will resume their schedule Friday with a 49-48 record. They are in fourth place, 14 games behind the Houston Astros, whom they will host for three this weekend. More attainable is the second wild card spot, currently held by the Seattle Mariners. The Angels are nine games back of the Mariners for that spot, with the Oakland A’s and Tampa Bay Rays also in between.

If the Angels are going to overcome those 2.8 percent playoff odds, they’ll need to get hot and have other teams get cold.

“I know a lot of teams are playing well right now, but within the drop of a hat a team can easily go on a nice skid and we can play really well, like the A’s right now,” Angels left-hander Tyler Skaggs said. “They’re on a nice little run. I don’t understand why we can’t do that. There’s still a lot of time left in the season.”

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The A’s were two games below .500 before they went 21-6 heading into the break.

If the Angels are looking for another potentially encouraging figure, it’s this: The Mariners have been outscored by two runs this season, which suggests that their 58-39 record may be an unsustainable pace. They lost seven of their last nine games before the break, including two of three to the Angels. The Angels play the Mariners seven more times, all in Anaheim, starting with three next weekend.

The A’s are also playing a few games ahead of what their plus-24 run differential would suggest, while the Angels (also plus-24) are a few games below.

“We feel the same optimism about reaching our goals, but know there are some things that we need to do better and that’s what we’ll really focus on,” Manager Mike Scioscia said.

The primary reason the team has underperformed is, once again, injuries. The starting rotation was intact for most of the first half, but now the Angels are down to just two healthy starters – Skaggs and Andrew Heaney – among the projected top five.

In the first half, the Angels got 22 starts from Garrett Richards and Shohei Ohtani — their two most talented pitchers — and they may get zero in the second half. Richards is scheduled for Tommy John surgery, and Ohtani is still out, hoping his damaged ulnar collateral ligament will heal without surgery.

If the rotation is to hold up in the second half, they’ll need to keep Skaggs, Heaney, Nick Tropeano and rookie Jaime Barría taking the ball every fifth day, and maybe find a way to add a starter by the trading deadline.

The bullpen has not been as much of an issue as the narrative. Their 17 blown saves — third most in the league — are misleading. The bullpen’s ERA (7th in the league), WHIP (10th), and inherited runners stranded (1st) all indicate they’ve pitched at a passable level.

The larger problem is the inconsistent offense has too often put them in a position of trying to protect a 2-1 lead for three innings. The Angels have lost nine games when they’ve allowed three or fewer runs, compared with just four for the Mariners and five for the A’s.

The Angels’ offense has gotten below expected production from several spots, most notably right field and third base. Zack Cozart was slumping before he was lost for the season to a shoulder injury. Kinsler has been inconsistent, hitting for some power but not getting on base. Kole Calhoun slumped for three months before going on the disabled list, although he’s been hot for a few weeks since he returned. Luis Valbuena, who plays against most right-handed pitchers, has also been in a rut all year. Justin Upton has hit for power, but not produced with runners in scoring position.

All of that needs to change in the second half, and the Angels are confident it will.

Calhoun’s resurgence, the return of Ohtani after a one-month hiatus from the lineup, and the addition of David Fletcher are all reasons for hope.

“I’m very optimistic,” Kinsler said. “I think we all can be tough outs, one through nine. When we start doing that, we’re a very lineup to pitch to. I know other teams just want to see us go away. They don’t want us hanging around.”

UP NEXT

Angels (Tyler Skaggs, 7-5, 2.57) vs. Astros (Dallas Keuchel, 7-8, 3.75), Friday, 7 p.m., Fox Sports West, KLAA (830 AM).

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