mlb.com posted Angels Top 30

[houstoncali]

Hey guys, this is my first post,  but I've been reading this site for a while.  I've been closely following the farm system for the past couple of years, and needless to say, the improvement has been striking. But I also have to say our scouting department under Eppler has dramatically improved as well.  Now, we have quite a few players who aren't rated as major league average prospect yet (they are rated a 45 instead of a 50).  But we have quite a few pitchers who are close and just need one more quality pitch to pass that threshold.  The positive is they are all young and most still in rookie ball.  Take Stiward Aquino who has a massive fastball and curve, but just needs time to work more on his change up and control (which will undoubtedly when he becomes more consistent with his delivery).  If I am not mistaken we got him for less than $200,000.   The point I am making there are a hand full of pitchers who seem to be one pitch away, or refining what they already have, from being a top MLB prospect. We got Aquino, Soriano, and Suarez all on the cheap.  And I am not including position players who are equally as impressive in their own right (Divas).  And when you take a look at a later round steals in the draft like Rivera and Hunter (who isn't ranked in our top 30 surprisingly) its pretty clear our scouting department has improved dramatically since Eppler took over and have been consistently finding diamonds in the rough.  And this was the first full year they had our full allotment of international money, and look at what we did!  And I am not including Ohtani in that evaluation because he was a special circumstance in his own right.   If some of these guys (Rivera, Aquino, Suarez, Divas, Deveaux, Soto, Duensing,  etc.) just simply develop on the trajectory they are expected (of course, not all of them will pan out, but if half to two-thirds do) then next year we'll have one of the top rated farm systems in baseball.  In fact, it will look much like what the Astros system looks like now.  But, let's take a look at the top 30 and I'll discuss some initial observations ...

http://m.mlb.com/prospects/2018/?list=ana

Here is my take on some of those listed (or not).  

1. I think Hunter should be in our top 30.  He has a way to go, but he has good speed and strong plate discipline.  Last year was his first full year in baseball since high school and IMHO he showed great plate maturity.  Now, he'll hit a brick wall once he gets to high single A, but with his athleticism and speed I don't see how he's not rated higher.  

2. Joey Gatto is also underrated.  Now, I think he projects as a #5 and although he's fallen off the face of the earth he made a pretty good comeback last year.  Of course his lack of third pitch makes one think bullpen.  I would like to see how he builds off his comeback year first before I'd relegate him to the bullpen.  

3. Jake Jewell shouldn't be on the list.  I think of a lot of other prospects not on the list I'd rather have than Jewell.  

4. Castillo is still not getting the love I think he deserves.  He's much like Barria.  He gets average to above average grades on everything he does but he's still rated as an below average prospect.  Furthermore, he's already put together back to back excellent minor league seasons.  I expected he'll put together a similar year that Barria did last year and the scouts at MLB will begrudgingly give him a higher grade next year.  I also believe he has the frame to fill out more and add more velocity to his pitches (whereas I think Barria may have already his ceiling).  

5.  I am a bit surprised Aquino is getting the love this early, and I wasn't aware how quickly his fastball developed.  This guy could be a monster prospect soon.  

6.  This may annoy people, but I think Ward is a bit underrated.  In fact, I'd rather have him than Hermosillo and am undecided about Thaiss.  Now, he quietly puts together good (but not great) years every level he plays in the minors.  But that's only as a batter.  Behind the plate he is fantastic.  He has a great arm and is a solid defender.  Now, I have no clue how well he frames pitches or if he has the ability to manage a game.  Nevertheless I see him being an average batter at the major league level and a potential gold glove catcher.  And minus a couple of teams who have all star catchers, just about every team in baseball would love to have a starting catcher that fits that criteria.

7.  This will equally annoy people, but I believe Chris Rodriguez is a bit overrated at this point.  I know he has all the tools, and I know he has a wide range of pitches that are above average and even a couple of plus pitches.  But until he puts it all together and gets better production on the mound, I am in a wait and see - holding pattern.   

Anyways, I'd love to hear some of your thoughts, so go check out the list ....

 

[eligrba]

Welcome.

Solid first post.  You may have out-kicked your coverage with posts like that on a forum like this.

[Warfarin]

49 minutes ago, houstoncali said:

Hey guys, this is my first post,  but I've been reading this site for a while.  I've been closely following the farm system for the past couple of years, and needless to say, the improvement has been striking. But I also have to say our scouting department under Eppler has dramatically improved as well.  Now, we have quite a few players who aren't rated as major league average prospect yet (they are rated a 45 instead of a 50).  But we have quite a few pitchers who are close and just need one more quality pitch to pass that threshold.  The positive is they are all young and most still in rookie ball.  Take Stiward Aquino who has a massive fastball and curve, but just needs time to work more on his change up and control (which will undoubtedly when he becomes more consistent with his delivery).  If I am not mistaken we got him for less than $200,000.   The point I am making there are a hand full of pitchers who seem to be one pitch away, or refining what they already have, from being a top MLB prospect. We got Aquino, Soriano, and Suarez all on the cheap.  And I am not including position players who are equally as impressive in their own right (Divas).  And when you take a look at a later round steals in the draft like Rivera and Hunter (who isn't ranked in our top 30 surprisingly) its pretty clear our scouting department has improved dramatically since Eppler took over and have been consistently finding diamonds in the rough.  And this was the first full year they had our full allotment of international money, and look at what we did!  And I am not including Ohtani in that evaluation because he was a special circumstance in his own right.   If some of these guys (Rivera, Aquino, Suarez, Divas, Deveaux, Soto, Duensing,  etc.) just simply develop on the trajectory they are expected (of course, not all of them will pan out, but if half to two-thirds do) then next year we'll have one of the top rated farm systems in baseball.  In fact, it will look much like what the Astros system looks like now.  But, let's take a look at the top 30 and I'll discuss some initial observations ...

 

 

What would be interesting for me to learn is how, exactly, our scouting department was overhauled, as we shifted from the DiPoto era to the Eppler era.  I know we have been scouting more heavily in the international communities, but I have always been fascinated to learn how our scouting changed under Eppler, and moreover, how our minor league instruction changed, such that are there certain skills / traits we try to develop  more now vs. before?  All the little, behind-the-scene things have always been interesting to me.

[Vlad27Trout27]

You just have to give Credit to billy and Co for the system.  One think that may have gone under the radar is how much pitching depth That have build, we have 2 sets of categorized of pitching depth now, 1 that contains the safe bet guys with low ceilings and that the guys with high bust rate what also extremely high upside. 

  1. Gatto, personally i see need him to develop a third pitch that at least Consistent. If he can still improve i can see him being a number 3

  2. For a Bp arm Jewell is in the bottom 30  but as a starter not so much

  3. CRod's stuff just jumps out, His Fb to me is an 65 grade pitch right now with a chance to be an 70 grade pitch, Mix it in with a  wipe-out slider and a change that has shown flashes of being a plus pitch, than consider the fact he can toss an average curve. 

   He struggled last year, but you have to remember he was going up against guys that were about 4 yrs older than him, There were also a few stats to like; only 144 BB and 2 Hrs allowed. I think next year is still going to be a learning season for him, but i'm excepting better results and by the end of the season he'll start dominating.       

[houstoncali]

That's a good question Warfarin, outside the obvious answers.  The Dipoto era draft seemed to focus on high floor - low ceiling types of picks whereas the Eppler era drafts seem to higher ceiling - younger types.  But the drafts haven't been all sunshine and roses.  Thaiss has been just OK (but drafting him allowed us to pay more money to Marsh, William, and Rodriguez).  And someone correct me if I am wrong on this one also, but not signing our 5th round pick last year (his name escapes me) allowed us to over pay for Rivera and a few others.  We'll see but I would love to see an in depth article about the changes too.  I've read we have added more resources in the international scouting department, and are basically one of the only teams scouting certain territories and oddly enough we have the inside track on all those players (it's how we got Deveraux).  I am curious if we have also changed our analytics in the minor leagues like we have at the major league level (for example I believe we threw significantly less fastballs last year than we did before).   

[Warfarin]

15 minutes ago, Vlad27Trout27 said:

You just have to give Credit to billy and Co for the system.  One think that may have gone under the radar is how much pitching depth That have build, we have 2 sets of categorized of pitching depth now, 1 that contains the safe bet guys with low ceilings and that the guys with high bust rate what also extremely high upside. 

  1. Gatto, personally i see need him to develop a third pitch that at least Consistent. If he can still improve i can see him being a number 3

  2. For a Bp arm Jewell is in the bottom 30  but as a starter not so much

  3. CRod's stuff just jumps out, His Fb to me is an 65 grade pitch right now with a chance to be an 70 grade pitch, Mix it in with a  wipe-out slider and a change that has shown flashes of being a plus pitch, than consider the fact he can toss an average curve. 

   He struggled last year, but you have to remember he was going up against guys that were about 4 yrs older than him, There were also a few stats to like; only 144 BB and 2 Hrs allowed. I think next year is still going to be a learning season for him, but i'm excepting better results and by the end of the season he'll start dominating.       

144 BB would seem to be a poor stat to me.

But yeah, he did show pretty good control, considering his age.  I look forward to seeing how he develops moving forward.  We have our future ace on a rookie contract already (Ohtani).  We have good mid/end of the rotation pitchers near or already in the majors (Barria, Bridwell, Long [starting in 2019]).  Canning could make an appearance by 2019 as well.

The key thing is to have a pipeline of talent that we can use to supplement our MLB roster constantly, which enables us to "splurge" in other areas.  

Our pipeline dried up under DiPoto, and given the way minor league systems work, it takes 3-4 years to rectify that, unless you engage in a massive teardown and trade your MLB players for prospects.  Obviously we didn't go that route, so Eppler has had to patiently and diligently restock the system.

We don't have much talent in the upper minor leagues currently (compared to other teams), but our lower system looks STACKED.  I look forward to waves of minor league talent coming up in the next 2 years or so.  

[Warfarin]

8 minutes ago, houstoncali said:

That's a good question Warfarin, outside the obvious answers.  The Dipoto era draft seemed to focus on high floor - low ceiling types of picks whereas the Eppler era drafts seem to higher ceiling - younger types.  But the drafts haven't been all sunshine and roses.  Thaiss has been just OK (but drafting him allowed us to pay more money to Marsh, William, and Rodriguez).  And someone correct me if I am wrong on this one also, but not signing our 5th round pick last year (his name escapes me) allowed us to over pay for Rivera and a few others.  We'll see but I would love to see an in depth article about the changes too.  I've read we have added more resources in the international scouting department, and are basically one of the only teams scouting certain territories and oddly enough we have the inside track on all those players (it's how we got Deveraux).  I am curious if we have also changed our analytics in the minor leagues like we have at the major league level (for example I believe we threw significantly less fastballs last year than we did before).   

Admittedly I am not high on Thasis at all.  I see someone who might be a fringe player currently.  I know that may not be a popular view here, and I hope he develops more pop and improves his defense while proving me wrong, but I just don't see a strong future for him currently.

That said, we have certainly done very well in the other rounds of that draft, as well as last year's draft too.  We have a lot of OF talent percolating in the low minors and some very intriguing, high-upside arms as well.

I'd love to learn how our analytic approach changed as we transitioned from DiPoto to Eppler.  It's impossible to know, but I'd definitely love to learn how it evolved.  Not to derail the thread, but it is definitely very eye-opening to see how our farm system has evolved the last two years, while the Mariners' has been transformed to the worst in the MLB in that same stretch of time.

[houstoncali]

30 minutes ago, Vlad27Trout27 said:

You just have to give Credit to billy and Co for the system.  One think that may have gone under the radar is how much pitching depth That have build, we have 2 sets of categorized of pitching depth now, 1 that contains the safe bet guys with low ceilings and that the guys with high bust rate what also extremely high upside. 

  1. Gatto, personally i see need him to develop a third pitch that at least Consistent. If he can still improve i can see him being a number 3

  2. For a Bp arm Jewell is in the bottom 30  but as a starter not so much

  3. CRod's stuff just jumps out, His Fb to me is an 65 grade pitch right now with a chance to be an 70 grade pitch, Mix it in with a  wipe-out slider and a change that has shown flashes of being a plus pitch, than consider the fact he can toss an average curve. 

   He struggled last year, but you have to remember he was going up against guys that were about 4 yrs older than him, There were also a few stats to like; only 144 BB and 2 Hrs allowed. I think next year is still going to be a learning season for him, but i'm excepting better results and by the end of the season he'll start dominating.       

You are a bit higher on Gatto than I am, but I hope you're right.  I recall at one time some considered him our top prospect, and then he totally went the way of Hunter Green.  But Green of course was destroyed by injuries but Gatto just seamed to have a meltdown.  I always assumed that from a maturity point of view, he struggled immensely living the minor league player life and it carried over into his play.  Well, last year was quite the comeback for him, and he show steady consistent progress throughout the year.  So is it possible for him to pick up where we left off last year and absolutely explode?  Sure, in the mean time I am just hoping for a better change-up and much better K-BB ratio.  

[houstoncali]

40 minutes ago, Warfarin said:

Admittedly I am not high on Thasis at all.  I see someone who might be a fringe player currently.  I know that may not be a popular view here, and I hope he develops more pop and improves his defense while proving me wrong, but I just don't see a strong future for him currently.

That said, we have certainly done very well in the other rounds of that draft, as well as last year's draft too.  We have a lot of OF talent percolating in the low minors and some very intriguing, high-upside arms as well.

I'd love to learn how our analytic approach changed as we transitioned from DiPoto to Eppler.  It's impossible to know, but I'd definitely love to learn how it evolved.  Not to derail the thread, but it is definitely very eye-opening to see how our farm system has evolved the last two years, while the Mariners' has been transformed to the worst in the MLB in that same stretch of time.

I hear ya on Thaiss, and feel he is a bit overrated.  But, he isn't the worst prospect.  And there has been years where I would have loved to have a consistent first baseman who bated .270Ave/.350OBP with average power (15 HR's a year) where I think he projects.  I also like the fact he's a lefty, which will make him a valuable situational hitter, and ultimately think he'll platoon with Pujos in 2019 at first base.  Now, oddly enough, lowering the right field wall I believe will benefit him when he makes it to the show next season.  

But you are absolutely right about DiPoto.  Some of that I blame on Moreno for letting him destroy our minors as much as he did.  And yes, he's doing the exact same thing to the Mariners ... trying to cash in every chip to win now.  You can't win that way in today's league with the inflated contracts, the seven year control a team has over a player not to mention the depth required to win a 162 game season.  Now that we are fully beyond the steroid era, the days of having 4-5 200 inning pitchers a year are over (not every pitcher during that era was on steroids, but I am sure many where on various supplementals to help with recovery that are classified in today's league as a PED).  The Dodgers have the new model, and it is one that I hope the Angels will follow.  You have to plan to use 8-10 starters thorough out the year and have none of your top guys go over 180 innings.  In order to do that you need to have a couple of valuable swing guys in the pen, and a few guys in AAA who can give you valuable innings.  

Personally I am quite happy Eppler has been as stingy as he has with our minor league players.  But with that said, I also like that Eppler is willing to make the right deal (unlike Stoneman who was overtly miserly with our prospects).  Don't forget Eppler this past year traded Long, Elvin Rodriguez, and Troy Montgomery; and of course we all remember the Newcomb/Ellis trade.  

[Docwaukee]

welcome to AW and nice first post.  the prospect hounds around this joint don't put a ton of stock in the mlb.com list.  That said, it always a good jumping off point for discussion.  

Agree with many of the things you pointed out.  

Our new trend is to go for more upside/ceiling because we are a large market team.  High floor guys can be pulled off the minor league FA list and waiver wire so it doesn't make as much sense to draft them or sign them as intl free agents. The consequence is that we're goinna dream on a bunch of guys that will flame out hard.  

Hunter is one of those guys.  22yo in short season rookie ball.  Most would say to wait until AA before you get excited.  For guys like this, I think high A is a reasonable level to gauge whether there is cause for high optimism.  That could be this year for THjr.  So to me, we'll know very soon whether he's going to evolve into a dynamic leadoff hitter with gold glove defense or a speedy 5th OFer that is mostly a AAAA guy.  

Gatto had a really good 2017, but there is still a ways to go.  k-rate needs to bump up.  bb-rate needs to go down.  

Pretty much every pitching prospect outside of the top 100 and even some in the top 100 need a third pitch.   So we aren't alone as a system in that regard.  

Jake Jewell is a really good example of a two pitch guy.  He belongs in our top 30 because at worst, he'll be a #5 starter or a solid reliever.  Throws hard with a good fastball and slider.  The hallmarks of a good reliever.  

Agree on Castillo.  He's more than the sum of the parts.  But 11th in our system make him a borderline 50 grade ( I think he's a 50 and so do many of the other guys on this board), but he's ranked pretty good.  After the top 5, 6-11 are pretty much interchangeable.  

Ward is a dipoto classic.  High floor.  Likely a platoon catcher.  He only started realizing his defensive potential this year actually.  Before that, it didn't really translate, and he still has a decent amount of work to do.  

Chris Rodriguez is a classic high ceiling guy who could totally flame out.  so he's the opposite of a Dipoto draftee.  

all in all, I think mlb did a decent job this year.  we've got a bunch of intl pitchers with high ceilings so in about a year or two, we'll still have a couple guys with top 100 potential along with our others high ceiling OFers.  

Gonna be a lot more fun to follow than 3 years ago.  

 

 

[Warfarin]

19 minutes ago, houstoncali said:

I hear ya on Thaiss, and feel he is a bit overrated.  But, he isn't the worst prospect.  And there has been years where I would have loved to have a consistent first baseman who bated .270Ave/.350OBP with average power (15 HR's a year) where I think he projects.  I also like the fact he's a lefty, which will make him a valuable situational hitter, and ultimately think he'll platoon with Pujos in 2019 at first base.  Now, oddly enough, lowering the right field wall I believe will benefit him when he makes it to the show next season.  

But you are absolutely right about DiPoto.  Some of that I blame on Moreno for letting him destroy our minors as much as he did.  And yes, he's doing the exact same thing to the Mariners ... trying to cash in every chip to win now.  You can't win that way in today's league with the inflated contracts, the seven year control a team has over a player not to mention the depth required to win a 162 game season.  Now that we are fully beyond the steroid era, the days of having 4-5 200 inning pitchers a year are over (not every pitcher during that era was on steroids, but I am sure many where on various supplementals to help with recovery that are classified in today's league as a PED).  The Dodgers have the new model, and it is one that I hope the Angels will follow.  You have to plan to use 8-10 starters thorough out the year and have none of your top guys go over 180 innings.  In order to do that you need to have a couple of valuable swing guys in the pen, and a few guys in AAA who can give you valuable innings.  

Personally I am quite happy Eppler has been as stingy as he has with our minor league players.  But with that said, I also like that Eppler is willing to make the right deal (unlike Stoneman who was overtly miserly with our prospects).  Don't forget Eppler this past year traded Long, Elvin Rodriguez, and Troy Montgomery; and of course we all remember the Newcomb/Ellis trade.  

I agree, Thasis isn't the worst prospect.  His floor is high, but I just feel that his ceiling is likewise pretty low too.  Just my opinion on what I've seen so far.  As for the 1B situation in 2019, for as much crap as he's taken, I can see Valbuena's option being picked up if he has a solid year, as he can cover both 3B/1B, while providing power and plate discipline.  Obviously though, it entirely depends on the season he has.

The Dodgers have a great model, and it is one I hope we are trying to emulate.  Basically, load up on quality MLB depth, get through the grind of a 162 MLB season with that depth, conserve your star SPs/players during the season so that once the post-season arrives, you can then lean heavily on them, etc.

For example - Kershaw has missed significant chunks of time the last two years with back injuries.  While I don't doubt the legitimacy of that kind of injury, I also feel perhaps in years past, under a different regime, he might not have said anything about his back issue, kept playing, then become fatigued/wore out during the playoff stretch drive.  Now, they encourage their players to vocalize any kind of injury, give them ample time off to recover, etc.  If you have a team that is bereft of depth, doing that might cause you to miss the playoffs.  However, if you have significant depth/talent, you can afford the luxury of resting your key players as much as needed to ensure they are 100% healthy during the time you need them the most (playoffs).

[Warfarin]

1 minute ago, Dochalo said:

welcome to AW and nice first post.  the prospect hounds around this joint don't put a ton of stock in the mlb.com list.  That said, it always a good jumping off point for discussion.  

 

I think the MLB.com list is just okay.  My personal favorite is Fangraphs.  I think they do a pretty good job of thoroughly scouting the system and providing a neutral opinion of it.  Obviously they aren't always right, but I like reading "third-party" type analysis of farm systems, as I feel they tend to be a bit less homer-ish when it comes to the analysis.  

[totdprods]

9 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

welcome to AW and nice first post.  the prospect hounds around this joint don't put a ton of stock in the mlb.com list.  That said, it always a good jumping off point for discussion.  

This is the best MLB.com list I've seen. I think they've either added someone new to the table when it comes to determining that list, or they are taking a new approach, but it felt like the most agreeable list they've posted in years.

Could also just be that our farm is strong enough now that there isn't much to dispute.

The Soriano, Suarez, and Aquino ratings, and to a lesser degree, Swanda and Castillo, are a little bold; are they really deserving of those, or is MLB.com over-compensating a bit for and giving lesser names more credit than due now that our farm has a bit of sexiness to it?

Worth mentioning to me is David Fletcher dropping all the way from #12 down 11 spots to #23 - despite playing about as well as he always has. That's not an indictment on Fletcher, but more of a testament to how much the Angels improved #1-#10, and how significant the #10-20 guys stepped up too.

[Second Base]

Minor League Ball does the best job outside of AW in terms of scouting the depths of our minor league system.

Baseball America does the best job at scouting a selective few.

Baseball Prospectus is basically the same as BA with slightly more statistical analysis.

FanGraphs does a very solid job ranking the prospects, but their scouting reports are pretty terrible. Riddled with errors, obvious ones too. They aren't scouts. But they take other sites into account and create a ranking that's generally accurate. They're the opposite of MLB.com. One gives you no information because they don't want to be wrong, the other throws crap against the wall hoping some of it sticks.

Keith Law isn't a scout, and never actually was. If you read his list as you'd read any other fans, expecting bias, it's solid work. But if you're taking what he writes as "expertise" then you'll be disappointed or misinformed.

MLB.com works off the mantra, "No information is better than misinformation" which is a step in the right direction I guess. Very shallow reports and rankings that leave a lot to be desired. 

Scout.com has outstanding insider information. TBW is a good  reporter. Good writeups. He isn't a natural scout, but he also isn't misinformed either. 

Halos Heaven used to have good scouting and poor reporting, but not anymore. They have improved as a fan site, but you can't trust their rankings or scouting reports.

AngelsWin has a solid ranking system and decent scouting reports. They (we) toe the line between scouting and fandom, which is a unique place to be, but it also opens us (me usually) up for criticism.  It's highly likely other publications read our information, put their spin on it and present it as their own. I think if nothing else, AW's content is forcing others to step up their game if they want to be taken seriously.

[tdawg87]

The MLB prospects list is basically the most vanilla list possible. They don't really do anything to stand out they just seemingly make one because they "might as well". 

That said, this year's list is pretty solid and I think it speaks to how much our system has improved. Sites are no longer just throwing random names in there. The Angels have a legit top 30 with plenty of fringe guys who could easily be there in the next year or two.

Our guys are finally getting the attention they deserve. 

[Chuck]

Welcome to AW, @houstoncali. Good first post. You'll find some really good discussion here on the prospects, stats and everything else under the sun Angels baseball related.

There's a really intelligent group of baseball minds here, in addition to your regular homers & prognosticators. 

Then there's guys like @tdawg87 & @Glen that keep things lite and fun. 

[tdawg87]

Are you saying I'm not intelligent? 

Well I never! Harumph good sir!

[Docwaukee]

22 minutes ago, tdawg87 said:

Are you saying I'm not intelligent? 

Well I never! Harumph good sir!

how would you know?  

[Erstad Grit]

So Baldoquin isn't even on a radar anymore huh. 

Glad Jedi got him instead of Vlad Guerrero Jr. 

[Second Base]

59 minutes ago, Erstad Grit said:

So Baldoquin isn't even on a radar anymore huh. 

Glad Jedi got him instead of Vlad Guerrero Jr. 

Baldoquin is one of those guys that's loosely on the radar. I equate it with Joe Gatto before this past season. He was at an advanced age and just came off the most brutal season in A Ball that I've seen in a while. But the talent is there to breakout. Maybe not be a superstar or anything, but Gatto can still be a starting pitcher in the major leagues. He has a big pitcher's frame, a very firm fastball, great curve and a halfway decent change up.

Similarly, Baldoquin still has the talent to be a big league infielder. He has the glove, athleticism, release, and any other defensive ability to play any position in the infield at the major league level. He also has the contact and line drive ability to become a pretty decent hitter too.

He can be a good defensive Yunel Escobar, which is tremendously valuable coming off the bench.

Now there has to be a lot that takes place before that can happen, just like a lot has to happen before Gatto can reach his ceiling (a steady, workhorse #4/5 starter).  I'm not saying it even will happen. 

They won't appear on many top prospect lists, and you won't see me singing their praises frequently when there are many others that go unnoticed. But they remain on the peripheral.

[Docwaukee]

Baldoquin is on the radar for all the wrong reasons.  The fact that JD passed on Vladdy jr for him is a felony in 31 states.  

The funny thing about Baldoquin though is that every time he's shown up to spring camp, they see his skills and he ends up getting some time in major league camp.   So there is something there but it's just never translated and likely won't.  

I get what Scotty is saying relative to Gatto, but I think that's a bit off.  Joe is a much better bet imo.  A level ahead, a year younger, and a season of actual solid performance.  

you'll get your baldoquin updates around here whether you want to or not.  

[Blarg]

Baldoquin is that really nice kid that keeps getting retained because he can't keep up with the class. But the teachers like him.

[WeatherWonk]

As so many have pointed out, even the supposed "best of the best" talent prediction lists can fail badly. Great players coming out of nowhere to be superstars. Or the more common, top-rated prospects washing out.

I am SOOO glad that we can finally look at player's potential in the HERE AND NOW, instead of some fantasy-league inspired prognostication for fans.

SPRING TRAINING IS ON!!!!! EMBRACE THE REALITY IN FRONT OF YOU!!!!! SEEK YE NOT COMFORT IN THE RANTINGS OF FALSE IDOLS WITH THEIR TECHNOLOGY!!!! 

Take a deep breath. It's OK to NOT make predictions (that have a questionable percentage of accuracy, anyway!). It's OK to NOT have answers as fast as your smart phone. Baseball is a sport where the game and the players develop S-L-O-W-L-Y. That's one of its greatest attributes. Why rush it?? (That includes YOU, Mr. Manfred the Marketer!) EMBRACE IT!!!

 

BTW, if Michael Hermosillo is a leading candidate for our 4th outfielder, and has spent almost no time in the bigs, why is he not on the prospect lists? Is he not good enough or is he ineligible by some subjective or objective criteria? Is he a failure of the charts, a quirk in the definition of a candidate..........or a poor choice by the front office of a person (with no options) left in the organization?

[houstoncali]

20 hours ago, Scotty@AW said:

Minor League Ball does the best job outside of AW in terms of scouting the depths of our minor league system.

Baseball America does the best job at scouting a selective few.

Baseball Prospectus is basically the same as BA with slightly more statistical analysis.

FanGraphs does a very solid job ranking the prospects, but their scouting reports are pretty terrible. Riddled with errors, obvious ones too. They aren't scouts. But they take other sites into account and create a ranking that's generally accurate. They're the opposite of MLB.com. One gives you no information because they don't want to be wrong, the other throws crap against the wall hoping some of it sticks.

Keith Law isn't a scout, and never actually was. If you read his list as you'd read any other fans, expecting bias, it's solid work. But if you're taking what he writes as "expertise" then you'll be disappointed or misinformed.

MLB.com works off the mantra, "No information is better than misinformation" which is a step in the right direction I guess. Very shallow reports and rankings that leave a lot to be desired. 

Scout.com has outstanding insider information. TBW is a good  reporter. Good writeups. He isn't a natural scout, but he also isn't misinformed either. 

Halos Heaven used to have good scouting and poor reporting, but not anymore. They have improved as a fan site, but you can't trust their rankings or scouting reports.

AngelsWin has a solid ranking system and decent scouting reports. They (we) toe the line between scouting and fandom, which is a unique place to be, but it also opens us (me usually) up for criticism.  It's highly likely other publications read our information, put their spin on it and present it as their own. I think if nothing else, AW's content is forcing others to step up their game if they want to be taken seriously.

Thanks Chuckster and Scotty for the welcome and well wishes.  Yes, I am pretty familiar with many of the blogs you provided.  I think Halos Heaven is just OK ... but there interface isn't user friendly and they don't have a true message board.  Monkey with a Halo is non existent and Halo Hangout doesn't do much anymore.  And the Keith Law's and Baseball America's of the world have good info, but you are right they are very selective and tend to be biased (especially when it comes to ranking our fringe players with other organizations fringe players).  Last time I checked, scout wasn't very good.  I visit other scout/247 sites but not baseball.  A while back I used to write for scout and they were always much better being a college insider pub than pro.  I'll take another look.  And I am not just saying this, but I do think AW is the best site around.  If I didn't believe that I wouldn't have joined and started posting.   But nevertheless, I have always worked off of the assumption (and could be wrong of course) that MLB at the very least has access to scouts at every organization and therefore there rankings probably more closely reflect what people in the organization feel.  But again, that assumption could be wrong.  I will say, the top 30 this year was solid.  Not because we were given better grades, but like I said earlier, they started rating some of our international signees which they have been avoiding doing for a while.  

[taylorblakeward]

On 2/24/2018 at 11:07 AM, Scotty@AW said:

Minor League Ball does the best job outside of AW in terms of scouting the depths of our minor league system.

Baseball America does the best job at scouting a selective few.

Baseball Prospectus is basically the same as BA with slightly more statistical analysis.

FanGraphs does a very solid job ranking the prospects, but their scouting reports are pretty terrible. Riddled with errors, obvious ones too. They aren't scouts. But they take other sites into account and create a ranking that's generally accurate. They're the opposite of MLB.com. One gives you no information because they don't want to be wrong, the other throws crap against the wall hoping some of it sticks.

Keith Law isn't a scout, and never actually was. If you read his list as you'd read any other fans, expecting bias, it's solid work. But if you're taking what he writes as "expertise" then you'll be disappointed or misinformed.

MLB.com works off the mantra, "No information is better than misinformation" which is a step in the right direction I guess. Very shallow reports and rankings that leave a lot to be desired. 

Scout.com has outstanding insider information. TBW is a good  reporter. Good writeups. He isn't a natural scout, but he also isn't misinformed either. 

Halos Heaven used to have good scouting and poor reporting, but not anymore. They have improved as a fan site, but you can't trust their rankings or scouting reports.

AngelsWin has a solid ranking system and decent scouting reports. They (we) toe the line between scouting and fandom, which is a unique place to be, but it also opens us (me usually) up for criticism.  It's highly likely other publications read our information, put their spin on it and present it as their own. I think if nothing else, AW's content is forcing others to step up their game if they want to be taken seriously.

oh...