Sick Lineup Iterations

[Hubs]

The 2017 Season started with Escobar leading off, and ended with Phillips Leading Off. There were 116 different batting orders. This includes the 10 batting orders for when they played in NL parks.

But still, shows that the lineup is always changing.

The most common lineups actually happened at the end of the season, after acquiring Upton and Phillips.

I hope that there is a bit more commonality in the lineups for 2018, but I think Kinsler is the leadoff guy for 120+ games. Calhoun likely is the other guy to leadoff, and I'm sure someone else will sneak in there. Hitting #2 is likely Trout. We know he should be 3rd for the vast majority of the games, but he actually hit 2nd more often last year. When he hits 2nd, Upton is likely to hit 3rd. Pujols is likely still 4th or 5th. Despite what some would want.

Kinsler, Trout, Upton and Pujols are all right handed hitters, so I have some reservation putting 4 guys with right handed bats in the front of the lineup, but the 5th guy is likely to be Calhoun, who bats left handed. Next I'd say Cozart is up, with Valbuena and Ohtani likely hitting 7th to start the season. Then you have Simmons or a Catcher.

If you drop down the 2/3/4 of Trout Upon Pujols to the 3/4/5 spots, you'd better have two high obp guys batting ahead of them and while Cozart does, I can't imagine 6 or 7 righties hitting in a row, which is what would happen from 8-9-1-2-3-4-5.

Calhoun needs to perform well, but is he better suited to the 5 spot or the leadoff spot or the 2nd spot?

Where does Kinsler really fit? He's been a lead off guy most of his career.

Where will Ohtani really be? I'd love for him to hit in front of Pujols, but I doubt Pujols hits sixth when he's chasing records.

 

 

									Most Common Batting Orders   12 Games   Phillips Trout Upton Pujols Calhoun Simmons Valbuena Cron Maldonado   5 Games   Calhoun Trout Upton Pujols Phillips Simmons Valbuena Cron Maldonado   4 Games   Escobar Calhoun Trout Pujols Cron Maybin Simmons Espinosa Maldonado   4 Games   Escobar Trout Pujols Calhoun Simmons Valbuena Revere Maldonado Cowart   4 Games   Maybin Trout Pujols Calhoun Simmons Valbuena Cron Maldonado Cowart   3 Games   Escobar Calhoun Trout Pujols Marte Simmons Espinosa Maybin Maldonado

Edited February 22, 2018 by Geoff

[totdprods]

My guess for the most basic 'template' to start the year...
Kinsler R
Trout R
Upton R
Pujols R 
Calhoun L 
Cozart R
Simmons R
Valbuena/Ohtani L
Maldonado R

I could see it morphing into something more like...
Kinsler
Cozart vs. LHP, Calhoun vs. RHP
Trout
Upton
Pujols
Ohtani
Simmons
Calhoun vs. LHP, Cozart ahead of or in Ohtani's place
Maldonado

If Kinsler totally blows, he could drop all the way to #9, with Simmons, Cozart, or Calhoun taking lead-off, and Maldy going up to #8, and while I don't really want that to happen, I actually like that construct quite a bit, provided someone else could lead-off. 

Simmons
Calhoun/Cozart
Trout
Upton
Pujols
Cozart/Calhoun
Ohtani/Valbuena
Maldonado
Kinsler

[Hubs]

17 minutes ago, totdprods said:

I could see it morphing into something more like...
Kinsler
Cozart vs. LHP, Calhoun vs. RHP
Trout
Upton
Pujols
Ohtani
Simmons
Calhoun vs. LHP, Cozart ahead of or in Ohtani's place
Maldonado

I like this the most of the three you posted, except, I'd swap 7 and 8.

Kinsler

Calhoun vs. RHP, Cozart vs. LHP

Trout

Upton

Pujols

Ohtani when he hits,  Valbuena when he doesn't.

Cozart vs. RHP, Calhoun vs. LHP

Simmons

Maldonado

 

Cozart and Calhoun though aren't exactly speedy guys, would be my only thought.

 

 

 

 

 

[AngelsLakersFan]

Cozart
Trout
Pujols
Upton
Calhoun
Kinsler
Valbuena
Simmons
Maldonado

 

[Angelsfan1984]

I would love to see something like:

Kinsler

Simmons

Trout

Upton

Pujols

Calhoun

Cozart

Maldonado

Valbuena

 

I really think hitting in front of Trout would allow Simmons to flourish in terms of better pitches to hit. He seems to make the most of his opportunities unlike someone like Calhoun.

[totdprods]

36 minutes ago, Hubs said:

I like this the most of the three you posted, except, I'd swap 7 and 8.

Kinsler
Calhoun vs. RHP, Cozart vs. LHP
Trout
Upton
Pujols
Ohtani when he hits,  Valbuena when he doesn't.
Cozart vs. RHP, Calhoun vs. LHP
Simmons
Maldonado

Cozart and Calhoun though aren't exactly speedy guys, would be my only thought.

They definitely aren't speedy - our lack of speed actually is a bit of a concern. I actually think both of those guys are tremendous Wild Cards for the line-up...at their peak, either one are pretty much on-base machines, but their career history indicate they're likelier to only be good for random surges of power/OBP, which suits the #5-7 spots much better. 

If Ohtani winds up being a good source of power...
I like having him behind Pujols to 1) act as a 'last resort clean-up hitter' source of power, and if Pujols clogs the bases in front of Ohtani, I think that's a plus actually as it may keep Ohtani from getting hurt trying to stretch out extra bags...
...and if he winds up being a good source of OBP...
2) he acts sort of like a mid-lineup leadoff hitter to reboot the lineup, serving as a #1-type hitter which fits perfectly with Simmons' good #2-type hitter ability to put the ball in play could set up good situations for more 'all or nothing' type power guys Calhoun, Cozart, Valbuena, and Maldy who are more predicable to put up those sort of offensive seasons.

There's a lot of variation based on how folks perform. We really don't know what to expect from Kinsler, Calhoun, Cozart, Pujols, or Ohtani.

[Troutstanding]

1 hour ago, Hubs said:

We know he should be 3rd for the vast majority of the games

Nice post but who is this "we" you speak of? I've seen a lot of people who believe Trout impacts the team more batting 2nd than 3rd. I would rather have him bat 2nd, 4th, or 1st before third. 

[Spirit]

Thread title updated to correspond with AW tradition. 

 

 

[Hubs]

46 minutes ago, Geoff said:

Thread title updated to correspond with AW tradition. 

 

 

Shit I should've thought of that.

 

[Hubs]

1 hour ago, Troutstanding said:

Nice post but who is this "we" you speak of? I've seen a lot of people who believe Trout impacts the team more batting 2nd than 3rd. I would rather have him bat 2nd, 4th, or 1st before third. 

Most of the time, a team's best hitter hits 3rd. Trout is the best hitter in baseball, hence the best hitter on the team.

I actually think in coming years, Ohtani will slot right between Trout and Upton in the #3 spot, as I expect him to be a great hitter, whereas as a pitcher, I don't know if he's going to be Darvish or better than Darvish or Dice-K or Shiggy. His stuff is unreal, true, and I think he's going to be a top pitcher. But I think he might be a great hitter as well.

So then in 2019 and/or 2020 you've got a leadoff guy, maybe Jam Jones at 2B? LOL, one can dream. Then Trout, Ohtani, Upton, Calhoun, then Pujols hitting 6th. Cozart would be next probably unless he's hitting to a .900 OPS again, in which case he'll be before Pujols and probably before Calhoun. Then Simmons hitting 8th, and Ward batting 9th?

 

 

 

[Hubs]

Oh and I also wanted to say, the 116 different orders was actually the lowest of the teams I checked.

Think of all the moving pieces and I think we'll be closer to 130-135 different lineups. But the core likely stays the same.

Think of it this way, besides just normal days off you also have different lineups because:

Rivera will start at least 30% of games at C.

Valbuena and Pujols are platooning maybe as much as 50/50 at first base.

So just those two iterations means four different lineups. One where Maldonado Catches and Pujols plays 1st, one where Maldonado catches and Valbuena plays 1st. And then two more when everyone else is the same, but Rivera catches. And what about when one of those four happen but say Valbuena plays third because he has excellent numbers against a pitcher so he plays and Cozart doesn't. Then you have two more possible lineups with Pujols playing 1st, and two more with him not playing first and someone like Cowart playing first.

It's easy to forget they have so many different moving parts and that regular lineups at max get into 20-30 games.

 

[Troutstanding]

2 minutes ago, Hubs said:

Most of the time, a team's best hitter hits 3rd. Trout is the best hitter in baseball, hence the best hitter on the team.

I actually think in coming years, Ohtani will slot right between Trout and Upton in the #3 spot, as I expect him to be a great hitter, whereas as a pitcher, I don't know if he's going to be Darvish or better than Darvish or Dice-K or Shiggy. His stuff is unreal, true, and I think he's going to be a top pitcher. But I think he might be a great hitter as well.

So then in 2019 and/or 2020 you've got a leadoff guy, maybe Jam Jones at 2B? LOL, one can dream. Then Trout, Ohtani, Upton, Calhoun, then Pujols hitting 6th. Cozart would be next probably unless he's hitting to a .900 OPS again, in which case he'll be before Pujols and probably before Calhoun. Then Simmons hitting 8th, and Ward batting 9th?

 

 

 

Many teams still bat their best hitter 3rd, you're correct. But the fact that teams still do it that way doesn't mean that it is most optimal. Modern sabermetrics strongly suggest that the most important batting position order is number two followed by number four. Trout, being both a power hitter and an OBP machine, is the ideal fit for the two hole in any batting order on the planet. I actually would be intrigued to see how it went having him bat clean up but I'm hoping to have a full season of him in the two spot.