Shohei Ohtani Has A FanGraphs Page

[ettin]

Click on 'Pitching' or 'Hitting' for his Steamer projections:

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=19755&position=PB

To paraphrase Eno Sarris' comp's, Ohtani is a Wil Myers on the Streets and a Robbie Ray in the Sheets.

[krAbs]

Big if true.

.256/.332/.447 with an ERA of 3.48, a WHIP of 1.2, and a k/9 of 11.09.

That would make him a top 20 pitcher in baseball (by last year's numbers for WHIP and ERA - just about tied for #5 for k/9), and a top 100 hitter for OPS.

[Ohtani&Trout]

I'd be thrilled with those hitting numbers though I think he'll put up better numbers than that as a pitcher.

[totdprods]

I'd be absolutely thrilled with that outcome for his first year.

[Ohtani&Trout]

Just checked  the Steamer SP projections for 2018. Ohtani is projected to have the 10th-best ERA in all of baseball with a 3.48 ERA. Scherzer, who is #5, is projected to have a 3.38 ERA.

[Ohtani&Trout]

For the Steamer hitter WAR projections:

1. Trout 8.7

 

 

 

2. Donaldson 6.4

3. Machado 6.3

4. Bryant 6.2

5. Harper 6.1

6. Correa 5.9

7. Lindor 5.9

8. Stanton 5.9

9. Betts 5.7

10. Seager 5.5

11. Springer 4.9

[Second Base]

I'll be honest, I'm expecting Ohtani to be better than that...

I think he'll be an elite ace level pitcher. At the plate, that's what I expect, except more power.

[krAbs]

I've always thought of Steamers as being pretty conservative on numbers. That honestly seems to be where they put very good pitchers who aren't named 'Kershaw'.

I mean, that's only .2 worse than Corey Kluber's projected ERA. I think they are nervous about being bullish on players and getting caught with their pants down.

[KDWells]

19 minutes ago, Scotty@AW said:

I'll be honest, I'm expecting Ohtani to be better than that...

I think he'll be an elite ace level pitcher. At the plate, that's what I expect, except more power.

I think even at those numbers he would be considered an ace in a lot of circles, especially if he hes averaging 11 K's per 9.

[Ohtaniland]

Tanaka’s first year on the mound with the Yankees was pretty damn solid. Was hoping for that type of dominance. 

[totdprods]

1 hour ago, krAbs said:

Big if true.

.256/.332/.447 with an ERA of 3.48, a WHIP of 1.2, and a k/9 of 11.09.

That would make him a top 20 pitcher in baseball (by last year's numbers for WHIP and ERA - just about tied for #5 for k/9), and a top 100 hitter for OPS.

That'd be close to Darvish's '14 season:
144.1 IP, 3.06 ERA, 22 GS, 2.84 FIP, 1.3 WHIP, 11.3 K/9.

[Second Base]

12 minutes ago, KDWells said:

I think even at those numbers he would be considered an ace in a lot of circles, especially if he hes averaging 11 K's per 9.

He'd be a solid #2/3 at those numbers. But I'm seeing an 80 grade fastball, a 70 grade splitter and a 60 grade slider. 50 being an average pitch. 

I think Ohtani is going to show up and immediately be one of the top 5 pitchers in baseball.

I think I'm asking too much, but he's that good as a pitcher.

[Ohtani&Trout]

 Steamer is pretty conservative with  their pitching projections. Scherzer, for example, is projected to have the fifth-best  SP ERA in all of baseball at 3.38.  Ohtani at #10 is projected to have a 3.48 ERA. 

But yea, Ohtani has nasty stuff and he  was a huge strikeout + GB pitcher in Japan.  And with our  defense...good things should happen. I think he'll easily beat that projection.

[krAbs]

12 minutes ago, Scotty@AW said:

He'd be a solid #2/3 at those numbers. But I'm seeing an 80 grade fastball, a 70 grade splitter and a 60 grade slider. 50 being an average pitch. 

I think Ohtani is going to show up and immediately be one of the top 5 pitchers in baseball.

I think I'm asking too much, but he's that good as a pitcher.

I'm always curious where people get "#x in rotation" numbers from. To me, there are 30 teams in baseball, so if you're a top 30 pitcher, you're a #1, if you're a top 60 pitcher, your a #2, #3 is a top 90 pitcher, etc. Based on last year's numbers (and that definition), that would put him as a middle of the road #1 starter with ace-type strikeout numbers (where ace is top five starters in baseball).

[Second Base]

9 minutes ago, krAbs said:

I'm always curious where people get "#x in rotation" numbers from. To me, there are 30 teams in baseball, so if you're a top 30 pitcher, you're a #1, if you're a top 60 pitcher, your a #2, #3 is a top 90 pitcher, etc. Based on last year's numbers (and that definition), that would put him as a middle of the road #1 starter with ace-type strikeout numbers (where ace is top five starters in baseball).

If we figure there are 250 starting pitchers in MLB, I figure #'s 120-180 are # 5 starters, 180-250 are spot and swingmen, 90-120 are #4 starters, 60-90 are mid rotation starters, 30-60 are solid #2 starters. 5-30 are number 1 starters and 1-5 are aces.

I think Ohtani will be an ace, Richards if he's healthy will be a #1 and Heaney will be a #2/3, Shoe and Skaggs will be #3/4, and if we have a 6 man rotation, Tropeano and Barria would be a #4/5, Bridwell, a swingman.

[KDWells]

26 minutes ago, Scotty@AW said:

He'd be a solid #2/3 at those numbers. But I'm seeing an 80 grade fastball, a 70 grade splitter and a 60 grade slider. 50 being an average pitch. 

I think Ohtani is going to show up and immediately be one of the top 5 pitchers in baseball.

I think I'm asking too much, but he's that good as a pitcher.

I agree with you, but with how fluky and inflated HR/FB rates can be nowadays it would be tough to blame him too much for a 3.48 ERA over his rookie campaign. I would personally be pretty stoked if he puts up peripherals similar to a guy like 2015 Chris Sale in his first taste of big league action. I know the stuff gives high hopes, but it will still be a big adjustment for him.

[krAbs]

14 minutes ago, Scotty@AW said:

If we figure there are 250 starting pitchers in MLB, I figure #'s 120-180 are # 5 starters, 180-250 are spot and swingmen, 90-120 are #4 starters, 60-90 are mid rotation starters, 30-60 are solid #2 starters. 5-30 are number 1 starters and 1-5 are aces.

I think Ohtani will be an ace, Richards if he's healthy will be a #1 and Heaney will be a #2/3, Shoe and Skaggs will be #3/4, and if we have a 6 man rotation, Tropeano and Barria would be a #4/5, Bridwell, a swingman.

That sounds about right. I think I'm a bit more optimistic on a couple of those, and a bit more hesitant about Ohtani (at least until we see what MLB hitters can make of him). Like, I think that Richards really has ace upside if he stays healthy (he has looked phenomenal the few times he has pitched over the last couple years), and I'm still optimistic about skaggs getting it together (I see him as similar as Heaney, a #2/3).

Barria may be an interesting wild card in all of this. If he can take his odd dominance to the MLB, that could be really interesting for us.

[bloodbrother]

With Ohtani in the system, Fangraphs now has the Angels projected to go 88-74, which would be tied with the Cardinals for the 6th best record in MLB.

[Ace-Of-Diamonds]

I not only expect Ohtani to be a sub 3.00 pitcher, I expect Richards to match him with a 2.50 to 3.00 ERA next season. Skaggs and Heaney should be under a 4.00 ERA. I can't wait ST to start.

[Ace-Of-Diamonds]

2 minutes ago, bloodbrother said:

With Ohtani in the system, Fangraphs now has the Angels projected to go 88-74, which would be tied with the Cardinals for the 6th best record in MLB.

I think that's a conservative predictions, I predict 90+ wins.

[bloodbrother]

By nature, projections usually are conservative....except when it comes to Trout, who is so good that even the projections can't be conservative

[krAbs]

1 minute ago, bloodbrother said:

By nature, projections usually are conservative....except when it comes to Trout, who is so good that even the projections can't be conservative

HONESTLY...their Trout projects are kinda conservative IMO. They have him batting .309 with 39 home runs. It would be a good year, and fall in line with the uptick in power we've been seeing from him, and that puts together a monstrous OPS, but as far as WAR goes, it would be on the low side for him. Much closer to his worst year than his best (discounting last year due to playing time missed).

Not to say they are like "omg how can you think so little of Trout", but more like...I would be a bit disappointed if he produced any worse than that.

[Docwaukee]

Trout Pron

Ohtani ______

[KDWells]

7 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

Trout Pron

Ohtani ______

We all know you're just trying to get someone to write bukkake on the forums.

[ettin]

19 minutes ago, hangin n wangin said:

Did someone say bukkake?

Yes KDWells said bukkake and then you repeated the word bukkake, creating two instances of the word bukkake in this post.