What does JD's contract teach us about Upton?

[Erstad Grit]

Once JD signs we'll discover how good/bad deal we got with Upton. 

Initially I was hoping Upton would stay but I would have let him walk rather than restructure. Maybe I'm a homer but I'm glad we have him.

How low would JD's contract make you feel like we spent way too much?

How high would JD's contract make you feel like we got a deal?

If JD signs for 6 years around 120 I think we got hosed.

If JD signs for 7 years around 150 I think we got a good deal. 

 

 

[tdawg87]

Nothing IMO.

Upton's deal is fair regardless of what JD Martinez gets because it wasn't guaranteed the Angels would get Martinez if Upton wasn't signed.

[tomsred]

I really don't care, I like Upton better than all of all the free agents this year.

[Second Base]

Upton wanted to be here, and we wanted him here. It's a great move for both sides.

[Docwaukee]

Upton and Martinez probably have similar value.  JD is essentially a DH.  We've got a  few of those already.  

We got JUp for under market in my opinion.  If he were a Boras client, Upton gets another year and 30 mil.  Which is what I think JD will get.  6/140.  Maybe even 150.  A typical overpay.   Even if JD ends up a bit better, we still got the better deal.  

So, to me, it teaches us that Eppler doesn't trip on his own dick.  Something that previously got us Wells, Hamilton, Pujols, Wilson, and Baldoquin.  

Not everything Billy has done or is going to do will be perfect.  But he makes baseball moves.  Not 'hey look at me' moves.  

So far, his big 'I'm smarter than you' move was Espinosa.  I am curious to see how he learns from that.   

I would be surprised if we signed Moustakas unless it's on a very club friendly deal.  

Here's a fun target for us - Eugenio Suarez.  

 

[Tyler]

Shout out to Mr. Reynolds for keeping Upton in SoCal.

[Second Base]

8 hours ago, Dochalo said:

Upton and Martinez probably have similar value.  JD is essentially a DH.  We've got a  few of those already.  

We got JUp for under market in my opinion.  If he were a Boras client, Upton gets another year and 30 mil.  Which is what I think JD will get.  6/140.  Maybe even 150.  A typical overpay.   Even if JD ends up a bit better, we still got the better deal.  

So, to me, it teaches us that Eppler doesn't trip on his own dick.  Something that previously got us Wells, Hamilton, Pujols, Wilson, and Baldoquin.  

Not everything Billy has done or is going to do will be perfect.  But he makes baseball moves.  Not 'hey look at me' moves.  

So far, his big 'I'm smarter than you' move was Espinosa.  I am curious to see how he learns from that.   

I would be surprised if we signed Moustakas unless it's on a very club friendly deal.  

Here's a fun target for us - Eugenio Suarez.  

 

Suarez would not hit for power as an Angel. Look at his splits. You're basically getting Alberto Callaspo there.

[vladdy#27]

3 hours ago, Scotty@AW said:

Suarez would not hit for power as an Angel. Look at his splits. You're basically getting Alberto Callaspo there.

Pretty big difference in 2017, but 2015 and 2016 were pretty similar, maybe even a little better on the road. 

2015: Home 4 HR Road 9 HR (186 AB each)

2016: Home 10 HR Road 11 HR (271 AB/294 AB

2017 may be a fluke. The power would likely drop leaving Great American Ballpark, but probably not as bad as his 2017 splits. 

A third basemen that plays good defense, hits 10-20 HR, and has a line of .250/.330/.425 would be nice. He’s also under club control for 3 more years. He’s pretty similar to Kole Calhoun

[Second Base]

10 minutes ago, vladdy#27 said:

Pretty big difference in 2017, but 2015 and 2016 were pretty similar, maybe even a little better on the road. 

2015: Home 4 HR Road 9 HR (186 AB each)

2016: Home 10 HR Road 11 HR (271 AB/294 AB

2017 may be a fluke. The power would likely drop leaving Great American Ballpark, but probably not as bad as his 2017 splits. 

A third basemen that plays good defense, hits 10-20 HR, and has a line of .250/.330/.425 would be nice. He’s also under club control for 3 more years. He’s pretty similar to Kole Calhoun

2017 was Suarez's best year, and his most recent. I think it carries more weight than 2015. The splits paint the picture of a player that has greatly benefited from playing in Cincy. Take GABP out if the equation and you have a .250 with little power.

[vladdy#27]

33 minutes ago, Scotty@AW said:

2017 was Suarez's best year, and his most recent. I think it carries more weight than 2015. The splits paint the picture of a player that has greatly benefited from playing in Cincy. Take GABP out if the equation and you have a .250 with little power.

Sure it carries more weight, but what suggests that a player that has never struggled to hit homeruns on the road would suddenly struggle in that category in a year when he set a career high for homeruns? That screams fluke to me. In 15/16 he hit twice as many HR compared to 17, and did it in less AB those years. That doesn’t add up to him not being able to hit on the road.

And even if you think he won’t have any power because of his splits. You have to give him credit for his increased walk rate and improved OBP, right? 

So you’re looking at a 3B that plays good defense, has an OBP of .350, hits 8-10 HR a year, probably good for 2.0-2.5 WAR, and is under club control for 3 years. Obviously not a star, but if we can surround Trout, Upton, and Simmons with 3-4 players like that (like Calhoun) that puts the Angels in pretty good shape. 

[Second Base]

13 minutes ago, vladdy#27 said:

Sure it carries more weight, but what suggests that a player that has never struggled to hit homeruns on the road would suddenly struggle in that category in a year when he set a career high for homeruns? That screams fluke to me. In 15/16 he hit twice as many HR compared to 17, and did it in less AB those years. That doesn’t add up to him not being able to hit on the road.

And even if you think he won’t have any power because of his splits. You have to give him credit for his increased walk rate and improved OBP, right? 

So you’re looking at a 3B that plays good defense, has an OBP of .350, hits 8-10 HR a year, probably good for 2.0-2.5 WAR, and is under club control for 3 years. Obviously not a star, but if we can surround Trout, Upton, and Simmons with 3-4 players like that (like Calhoun) that puts the Angels in pretty good shape. 

.350 OBP and 8 HR's. That's cool.  Callaspo's tenure as the Angels starting 3B averaged 7 HR's and a .340 OBP.

[Docwaukee]

4 hours ago, Scotty@AW said:

Suarez would not hit for power as an Angel. Look at his splits. You're basically getting Alberto Callaspo there.

that's a ridiculous comp.   Cinnci was almost neutral for hrs in 2017.  

He had 84 bb last year and a .367 obp.  He played good defense and has hit more hrs in his first 3 seasons from age 23-25 than callaspo did his entire career.  

[Second Base]

Just now, Dochalo said:

that's a ridiculous comp.   Cinnci was almost neutral for hrs in 2017.  

He had 84 bb last year and a .367 obp.  He played good defense and has hit more hrs in his first 3 seasons from age 23-25 than callaspo did his entire career.  

Cincy being a neutral park is like saying Mike Trout gets injured a lot. 

[vladdy#27]

36 minutes ago, Scotty@AW said:

.350 OBP and 8 HR's. That's cool.  Callaspo's tenure as the Angels starting 3B averaged 7 HR's and a .340 OBP.

Alberto Callaspo, during his Angels tenure, with 20 HR potential isn’t a bad thing

[eligrba]

17 hours ago, Erstad Grit said:

Once JD signs we'll discover how good/bad deal we got with Upton. 

Initially I was hoping Upton would stay but I would have let him walk rather than restructure. Maybe I'm a homer but I'm glad we have him.

How low would JD's contract make you feel like we spent way too much?

How high would JD's contract make you feel like we got a deal?

If JD signs for 6 years around 120 I think we got hosed.

If JD signs for 7 years around 150 I think we got a good deal. 

 

 

At this time, I would consider a 6 yr contract as a bad idea, unless the player's name was Trout.  I am glad Upton's contract is only for 5, no matter if the AAV is higher than JD.

[Lou]

3 hours ago, vladdy#27 said:

Pretty big difference in 2017, but 2015 and 2016 were pretty similar, maybe even a little better on the road. 

2015: Home 4 HR Road 9 HR (186 AB each)

2016: Home 10 HR Road 11 HR (271 AB/294 AB

2017 may be a fluke. The power would likely drop leaving Great American Ballpark, but probably not as bad as his 2017 splits. 

A third basemen that plays good defense, hits 10-20 HR, and has a line of .250/.330/.425 would be nice. He’s also under club control for 3 more years. He’s pretty similar to Kole Calhoun

For whatever it's worth, 7 of those road 20 HRs were hit @ Wrigley and Coors. 

[Docwaukee]

avg hr distance for Suarez - 395.4 ft

Carlos Santana - 395.3

Mike Moustakas - 395.3

Evan Longoria - 394.6

Jose Ramirez - 393.9

Brian Dozier - 393.5

Zack Cozart - 388.2

4 hours ago, Scotty@AW said:

Cincy being a neutral park is like saying Mike Trout gets injured a lot. 

I'm not saying it.  It's a fact that it was a neutral park this year.  

He hit the ball far enough to trot around the bases 26 times this year.  

Maybe he does that fewer times in Anaheim, but it's not like he's gonna go from 26 to 7.  

That's just ridiculous.  

[tdawg87]

3 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

Maybe he does that fewer times in Anaheim, but it's not like he's gonna go from 26 to 7.  

That's just ridiculous.  

*looks at Danny Espinosa's stat history*

*screams internally*

[SlappyUtilityMIF]

22 hours ago, vladdy#27 said:

Alberto Callaspo, during his Angels tenure, with 20 HR potential isn’t a bad thing

Albert Callaspo, could only DREAM of having 20HR Power potential!!!! Come on MAaaaaaaaaaan really?.... Dude maxed out with 11 in KC!.... A true Slappy Utility guy that got extended play out of necessity at 3B for us!.. He was nothing more than a hopeful table setter for someone else!

[Stradling]

18 minutes ago, SlappyUtilityMIF said:

Albert Callaspo, could only DREAM of having 20HR Power potential!!!! Come on MAaaaaaaaaaan really?.... Dude maxed out with 11 in KC!.... A true Slappy Utility guy that got extended play out of necessity at 3B for us!.. He was nothing more than a hopeful table setter for someone else!

He is saying if you could get a Callaspo type but with 20 home run ability it would be a good thing.  

[SlappyUtilityMIF]

1 hour ago, Stradling said:

He is saying if you could get a Callaspo type but with 20 home run ability it would be a good thing.  

That's kind of what we've had in Escobar who was approx. a 1.6WAR guy. 

 

I want a Young Stud or wait till next year and make a ridiculous offer to Machado!

[eaterfan]

6 minutes ago, SlappyUtilityMIF said:

That's kind of what we've had in Escobar who was approx. a 1.6WAR guy. 

 

I want a Young Stud or wait till next year and make a ridiculous offer to Machado!

Escobar hasn't hit double digit HR since 2011. He plays terrible defense. If you add 5 HRs to Escobar and replacement level defense them he's a very good player. Escobar has pretty much been worth -1 win on defense each of the last three seasons. A cheap, 3 WAR player would be great to have.

[SlappyUtilityMIF]

8 minutes ago, eaterfan said:

Escobar hasn't hit double digit HR since 2011. He plays terrible defense. If you add 5 HRs to Escobar and replacement level defense them he's a very good player. Escobar has pretty much been worth -1 win on defense each of the last three seasons. A cheap, 3 WAR player would be great to have.

They were saying Callaspo type player with power potential of 20 HR's..... Escobar had a better chance of hitting 12 than Callaspo..... I was being a bit facetious.

To me neither was the Answer to 3B.... Just somewhat adequate fillers for someone else.

[eaterfan]

37 minutes ago, SlappyUtilityMIF said:

They were saying Callaspo type player with power potential of 20 HR's..... Escobar had a better chance of hitting 12 than Callaspo..... I was being a bit facetious.

To me neither was the Answer to 3B.... Just somewhat adequate fillers for someone else.

I think if either of those guys hit 20 HRs they would be more than  adequate.

Suarez, last season was 6th in WAR among 3B. We all want a stud like Machado there, but when there are only about 5 guys in the world comfortably better than Suarez it's nearly impossible to get one.

[SlappyUtilityMIF]

1 hour ago, eaterfan said:

I think if either of those guys hit 20 HRs they would be more than  adequate.

Suarez, last season was 6th in WAR among 3B. We all want a stud like Machado there, but when there are only about 5 guys in the world comfortably better than Suarez it's nearly impossible to get one.

I wouldn't mind Suarez at all after looking over his stats... I don't remember if I've watched him play personally....