Preliminary Thoughts on the Offseason

[totdprods]

4 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

Yeah, I expect Barria and Hermosillo to figure into the major league club next year, Fletcher, Long, and Smith too.

The other thing about the toolsy outfielders is that at least one or two of them probably won't pan out - either flame out somewhere in the minors, or never be better than a 4th/5th outfielder. I'd hate to trade, say, Marsh and then see him become a star on the Braves, while Jones turns into a 4th outfielder. I think Eppler will hold onto all of them at least until this time next year. By then we should have a sense of how quickly they'll all develop, as well as if the Angels have anything special--or anything at all--in the new crop of Dominicans, especially Deveaux.

But one more quibble: While I agree that the Angels have the most aggregate upside in their toolsy outfielders, they also have a handful of young pitchers with good upside: Barria, Castillo, Canning, the two Rodriguezes, Duensing, Swanda (in rough order of when they'll be major league ready). All of those guys have at least mid-rotation upside, and one or two of them could be better. But yeah, not quite as rich as the outfielders.

Yeah, there's just enough of that type of OF and that type of SP that I could see one being dealt in the near future. This deadline perhaps, or offseason, or next deadline, but I can see it happening. 

Mostly I just wanted to acknowledge that we've built up a couple certain types of prospects that we could afford to deal from without it decimating the farm, which is what most of the board would overreact with whenever it happens

[Angel Oracle]

Is Alonzo's power surge a one year fluke though?   He had never, eeever shown this kind of power before at the MLB level.

I'd be promoting Jones to IE about a month from now.   Let him get a little experience there to build on for 2018.  

Pitchers like Barria (advanced maturity) don't grow on trees.   The main thing is to not overwork him too soon.

[totdprods]

12 minutes ago, Angel Oracle said:

Is Alonzo's power surge a one year fluke though?   He had never, eeever shown this kind of power before at the MLB level.

I'd be promoting Jones to IE about a month from now.   Let him get a little experience there to build on for 2018.  

Pitchers like Barria (advanced maturity) don't grow on trees.   The main thing is to not overwork him too soon.

It might be. But we'd only have him for two months, so we'd just hope he kept it up and gave us something from 1B and a lefty in the box. 

In a theoretical Gray trade, the Angels wouldn't be likely to win out the bidding with the strength of their prospects - it would be quantity - so at that point, I'd think if they were already at a point where they were giving up 4 prospects for Gray (likely), they may as well add one more prospect and up the ante on one of the other 4 and try and pry away one of the rental Athletics who make a lot of sense for our '17 needs - 1B (Alonso), Lowrie (2B/3B), or Doolittle (RP).

I think it would come down to Jones. He's the #1 Angels prospect in my eyes because he has upside, but also fills a position of need and isn't too far from contributing to the club. No one else in the org currently fits those three criteria. If the Athletics (or whomever) insisted on his inclusion in a deal, I would immediately insist on expanding the package to at least include a second player to help the '17 playoff push. I'd have to be gaining a long-term asset to compensate for the loss of Jones' control, but also something short-term to offset his loss of having an impact in the near future,

[Angel Oracle]

I'd rather skip rental acquisitions.  Grienke for Segura says hello.

[totdprods]

3 minutes ago, Angel Oracle said:

I'd rather skip rental acquisitions.  Grienke for Segura says hello.

I have no interest in rentals unless it's for something completely redundant, or for one of our rentals. 
Not even interested in dealing fringey prospects for rentals. That, IMO, is what killed our farm. Dipoto did it at such a high volume it truly left the org with zero depth to stand on for several seasons. 

Only deal prospects if we're getting back long-term assets. Or if a rental is factored in to an expanded deal - but it has to make sense. Someone like Lowrie also seems like he'd  be a target to resign in the offseason so I would be a little more comfortable in that regard.

[Farmbuildingfan]

18 minutes ago, totdprods said:

It might be. But we'd only have him for two months, so we'd just hope he kept it up and gave us something from 1B and a lefty in the box. 

In a theoretical Gray trade, the Angels wouldn't be likely to win out the bidding with the strength of their prospects - it would be quantity - so at that point, I'd think if they were already at a point where they were giving up 4 prospects for Gray (likely), they may as well add one more prospect and up the ante on one of the other 4 and try and pry away one of the rental Athletics who make a lot of sense for our '17 needs - 1B (Alonso), Lowrie (2B/3B), or Doolittle (RP).

This is the most frightening post in this thread.

 

I hope the days of trading multiple prospects for one player are long gone. I mentioned long ago that trading quantity due to lack of immediate quality is my single greatest concern regarding trades.

I want to see Espinoza, Valbuena, a reliever or two, and either Nolasco or Chavez or both traded collectively for a half dozen or more prospects.

Even if the Angels are still in the WC chase hovering around the .500 mark in three weeks, I would hate to trade prospects for a rental that will  not overtly increase the chances of an ALC appearance this year.

I would only take this year seriously if the Angels rattle off 17 wins by the deadline .

 

 

 

[totdprods]

16 minutes ago, Farmbuildingfan said:

This is the most frightening post in this thread.

I hope the days of trading multiple prospects for one player are long gone. I mentioned long ago that trading quantity due to lack of immediate quality is my single greatest concern regarding trades.

I want to see Espinoza, Valbuena, a reliever or two, and either Nolasco or Chavez or both traded collectively for a half dozen or more prospects.

Even if the Angels are still in the WC chase hovering around the .500 mark in three weeks, I would hate to trade prospects for a rental that will not overtly increase the chances of an ALC appearance this year.

I would only take this year seriously if the Angels rattle off 17 wins by the deadline .

Sonny Gray would help the Angels in '17, 2018, and 2019.
Brandon Belt would the Angels in '17, 2018, 2019, 2020, and 2021.
Dee Gordon? Under control through 2020.

In no way do I want the Angels unloading prospects for a rental. Even minor rental additions like Scott Feldman would irk me. 
If we are going to buy and spend our prospect capital, I only want it to be for a player who we have for at least a couple seasons. I would only have interest in a rental if it was an expansion of a trade for a long-term asset and it was because it was costing us our absolute top-shelf prospects, such as Jones, Middleton, Fletcher, Bedrosian - guys who are contributing or about to contribute. Dee Gordon makes some sense because he has a bunch of money tied up to him, and the Marlins would probably like to shed someone like Ziegler, Prado, or Volquez as well, and any of those guys could be a factor for the Angels this season and next, and would lessen our prospect expense. There are options out there.

Teams trade prospects, and our boy Eppler even trades prospects. He came from an org that never shied away from dealing prospects, and he's in an org that wishes they were his old org. I expect Eppler will again deal from the farm once he feels he can afford to do so, and as mentioned above, I see two groups of prospects in particular where we'd be deep enough to deal from. 

Eppler has an enormous amount of money to play with this offseason. It'd be a total 180 at this point for him and Arte to suddenly go hog-wild via FA, but that may have been part of his plan. First two seasons, keep spending tight, try and find cheap productive players to mimic a farm system in the interim, go heavy on a particular type of prospect in that time frame so you have some depth to deal from, and then have that timeline match a point where Hamilton contract was off the books to sign some big league help, and with Baldoquin restrictions lifting, use international prospects to fill the ranks you've dealt from.

 

[ten ocho recon scout]

58 minutes ago, Angel Oracle said:

I'd rather skip rental acquisitions.  Grienke for Segura says hello.

Well, grienke wouldnt say hello, thats for sure.

[Farmbuildingfan]

I would never trade  more than three top shelf prospects for a single player. unless I have one of the best farms in baseball.

 

But with the farm being relatively weak, I am afraid Eppier might send  five or six of his best.for one player.

I am more sensitive to this possibility than most fans after watching so many of Autry's young players back in the 80's go on to great careers for other teams.

The bad memories still linger.

 

 

[totdprods]

With how stingy Eppler is, I would be stunned if he moved 5-6 prospects for one player. That rarely happens these days anyways. I'd move 3-4 for one long-term impact player, or 5-6 for one long-term player and a damn good rental. That's about it. And any deal that large would probably involve 1-3 guys from AAA or the MLB team, so it wouldn't be pure prospects.

[California Cajun]

Here's a thought about where the Angels currently sit:

 

Bob Nightengale @BNightengale

 

If the Houston #Astros continue at this torrid pace, the 2nd place #Angels will have to go 67-7 to catch them in the AL West race.8:48 PM · Jul 4, 2017

[Angelsjunky]

I would definitely NOT trade for Alonso. He's hitting like .250/.750 over the last month or so. I think he just had a really hot and long start coupled with a mini breakthrough. Maybe he's reached a new level, but he's probably more of a .270/.800, 25 HR guy going forward. Good, but not a true star.

[ettin]

1 hour ago, California Cajun said:

Here's a thought about where the Angels currently sit:

 

Bob Nightengale @BNightengale

 

If the Houston #Astros continue at this torrid pace, the 2nd place #Angels will have to go 67-7 to catch them in the AL West race.8:48 PM · Jul 4, 2017

This quote is one of the reasons why Eppler will likely steer clear of 1/2 season rentals (although there are one or two out there that he could pluck I think) and focus only on longer term assets if we buy at the deadline. Any help we get needs to help now and in the future preferably unless he can grab a pure rental on the cheap.

[totdprods]

13 minutes ago, ettin said:

This quote is one of the reasons why Eppler will likely steer clear of 1/2 season rentals (although there are one or two out there that he could pluck I think) and focus only on longer term assets if we buy at the deadline. Any help we get needs to help now and in the future preferably unless he can grab a pure rental on the cheap.

The trades for Cole Hamels and Dan Haren strike me as comps. The Rangers made the Hamels deal with the next year in mind, and the Halos looked to anchor their rotation with Haren.

[Docwaukee]

Nice job in this thread tot.  Some good stuff.  

I think it's important to look at Eppler's trade history to better judge what we can expect.  

Lot's of minor deals for the likes of guys like David Hernandez, Parker Bridwell, Damian, Magnifico, Jhoulys Chacin, Austin Adams, Brooks Pounders, Nick Franklin, and Juan Graterol.  All of which were PTBNL or for a fringe guy of almost no value.  

Trades of mild note include:

Espinosa for McGowin and Austin Adams.  Adams is a reliever who turned a bit of a corner last year and has 51k in 33ip this year for AAA WSN.  He also has 27 bb and even with WSN struggling with relief pitchers at the major league level, he's yet to be called.  Mcgowin has gotten lit up at AA and AAA as a 25yo starter.  

Escobar for Michael Brady and Trevor Gott - Gott has actually seen some time this year at WSN and got lit.  He was decent at AAA before getting called.  Not so good last year.  We were, in general, concerned about losing him at the time of the trade.  It's been a non issue.  Michael Brady was granted minor league FA and is actually playing in OAK.  Meh at the major league level.  oh and he's 30 yo.  

Maldonado - for Bandy.  We also got Drew Gagnon in the deal.  We know how this has turned out so far.  I don't expect the dynamic to change.  Gagnon has struggled at AAA. 

Maybin - for Alcantara - still in relief and still struggling to find the strike zone.  Big arm that could still be something someday, but still rockin' a bb rate at 5/9. 

Simmons - for Aybar, Ellis and Newcomb.  Erick with a K struggled with DET and ATL last year and is struggling with SDP this year.  ATL ended up moving Ellis for Jaime Garcia to STL.  Ellis was very good at AA for ATL but has since struggled and AAA and actually got demoted back to AA in STL.  Maybe has back of the rotation potential.  But when you can grab a Bridwell or Ramirez off the scrap heap for nothing, who cares.  Newcomb has finally been called to the bigs after doing very well in AAA this year albeit with a bb rate of more than 5/9.  Sean still has TORS upside, but my guess is that if the potential is completely realized, it will be in 2 yrs or so.  Would I still like to have him?  You bet.  I was very critical of this trade, but after watching full seasons of Simmons, it's not even a close call.  Andrelton is truly a star.  Not a super star, but not far off (actually, bbref has him at 3.8 WAR already - 8th in the AL and on pace for a 6+ WAR season.  That's borderline super star).  5 WAR position players don't grow on trees and are certainly worth a top 100 pitching prospect with control issues.  

So.....

Eppler's self proclaimed biggest asset of being able to pull guys off the heap and get value out of them has actually turned out to be mostly true at this point.  

Why would he rent a player for half a season and give up juicy prospects when he can get slightly lesser production from guys he can get for free?  Any such move would be out of character for him at this point and I am not expecting it at all.  He knows the score.  He knows the best we can do at this point is to earn one additional game to the season.  He's not going to sell out for that.  

But....

that doesn't mean Eppler isn't going to add a player at the deadline.  Yet, if he does, it will be something similar to the Simmons deal.  Trading at the deadline typically requires the buyer to pay a premium for what they get in return relative to what it might cost in the off season.  That's the conventional wisdom at least which I have never actually seen vetted.  But let's say that's true.  If one of the deadline sellers decides to move a player of significant value with multiple years of control left it means said player then won't be available in the off season.  Eppler has his targets already.  If he feels like the so-called premium to get one of those players isn't egregious, I could definitely see him pulling the trigger if he knows it's the right player and he won't have another opportunity to acquire them.  

Potential targets in that scenario include:

Cesar Hernandez

Joe Panik - blocking Christian Arroyo with Crawford already at SS.  26yo entering arb.  Good defender with a nice bat.  I could actually see him being an option for us.  

Brandon Belt - some have mentioned him.  I have my doubt as to whether he'd be available.  But he's got a decent chunk of cash left on his contract through age 33.  Would be a good fit but likely to cost a ton.  

Adam Duvall - probably not available, but in his 28 yo season so he could be.  Another guy who would cost a ton.  Yes please.  

Solarte - good fit.  Eppler find in NY.  Solid player but nothing spectacular.  Team options take contract through 2020.  

Jose Pirela - late bloomer.  only mentioning him because it would take a minor deal to acquire him and he's a form yankee farm hand.  Just a name to remember more than a long term solution.  

Khris Davis - couple years left of arb.  huge power.  tons of K's.  probably not a great fit but I can think of worse players if Maybin doesn't stay.  

Sonny Gray - 2yrs left.  Buyer beware.  

Jose Abreu - interesting right?  2yrs left and likely due big arb money.  Poor defender, but that would be a nice bat to slot behind Trout.  

Jose Quintana - reasonable contract and only 28.  CWS likely expect a kiing's ransom unless their off season expectations have cooled.  Also, having a bit of an off year.  

Ian Kinsler - douchy and 35.  But could be an interesting grab if the price is right and he's still productive with an 12mil option for next year (5mil buyout).  

Nick Castellanos - if the price is right.  Still only in his 25yo season but not a player I'd sell the farm for.  2 yrs of arb left after this one.  

Jacob deGrom - likely not available and would take a ransom likely larger than anything we could afford.  probably couldn't even put together a package good enough.  I actually don't really see the Mets being sellers or rebuilding as they are more likely to wait out their injuries.  I felt like he's interesting because of his age (29yo) and his contract (3yrs arb).  

Dee Gordon - getting into some teams that probably aren't going to sell productive club controlled guys, but he's an interesting option because he's got a fair amount of dough left and he's actually been pretty mediocre since he got busted for PEDs.  Probably pass on him personally.  

Justin Bour - 29yo under the radar guy who's having a breakout year.  LHed version of what I was hoping Cron could be.  Not even in arb yet.  

Dan Straily - pitches above his peripherals but is missing bats at a high rate this year.  Not sure I believe.  Solid mid rotation guy though at 28yo and arb through 2020.  

McCutchen - back on track as PIT franchise player.  Would take a ton to get him now.  

Donaldson - off year.  31yo.  turning into a pumpkin?  Only 1yr left of arb before FA.  Not a fit 

Kolten Wong - don't see the cards selling.  would be a nice fit though.  

Jonathon Schoop - power surge this year.  doesn't walk.  mediocre D.  Orioles probably won't sell but should.  2yrs of arb left.  

Julio Teheran - interesting.  Having a bad year so I don't see the bravos selling low on him unless they think his arm is going to fall off but signed through 2020.  

 

Unless I missed some guys, there ain't a ton on that list I'd be willing to make a Simmons type deal for.  The most interesting are Panik, Duvall (doubtful they'd move him), Wong, and maybe Belt.  

The more I look into it, the more I don't see Eppler adding anyone.  So then the real question becomes when to sell.  I think we're going to be right on that edge.  .500 and 5 games back of the wild card.  Sure would be nice to get some value out of those expiring contract though.  

 

 

[tdawg87]

That's the longest post ever made 

[Docwaukee]

54 minutes ago, tdawg87 said:

That's the longest post ever made 

I know right?  totally got away from me.  

[Redondo]

5 hours ago, Dochalo said:

The more I look into it, the more I don't see Eppler adding anyone.  So then the real question becomes when to sell.  I think we're going to be right on that edge.  .500 and 5 games back of the wild card.  Sure would be nice to get some value out of those expiring contract though. 

After reading your post it makes trading the expiring contracts the way to go. This team is not going anywhere and I'm sure Eppler can get some solid prospects.

[Farmbuildingfan]

3 hours ago, hangin n wangin said:

I know everyone has their opinion, but realistically, this team has no shot of winning anything this year, regardless if we make some sort of mid-season splash. Personally, I want to get as much value as possible for our expiring players and tool up for next year, when our starting pitchers try to come back and we have some cap space off the books to improve offensively. This year, the talent just isn't there at all to win it. Again, it's my opinion, but I think it would be silly to not get value for our expiring deals. I don't mind trading for players that can help us out in the future, as long as we don't give up to much to get them. But I just don't see how we can let our most valuable expiring players walk away for nothing when there is close to a 0% chance this team is going to win it this year. 

I fully agree. Even if the Angels are within a game or two of the WC, or even leading the race, the chances of going much beyond the WC are quite slim.

The 25 man position player roster is too weak to command any grade A prospects, but more quantity increases the chances that someone could be a pleasant surprise.

Stock up on c+ or B- prospects and see what happens.

I think that collectively, Valbuena, Espinoza, and couple relievers could get the Angels maybe five or six of these prospects.

If  they never make the ML roster , you haven't lost much, and you certainly have not jeopardized your future..

 

[Angel Oracle]

19 hours ago, Angelsjunky said:

I would definitely NOT trade for Alonso. He's hitting like .250/.750 over the last month or so. I think he just had a really hot and long start coupled with a mini breakthrough. Maybe he's reached a new level, but he's probably more of a .270/.800, 25 HR guy going forward. Good, but not a true star.

And he's a rental this season anyway.

[totdprods]

I'd only have interest in Alonso if he was part of a Gray deal.

[Docwaukee]

4 hours ago, hangin n wangin said:

I know everyone has their opinion, but realistically, this team has no shot of winning anything this year, regardless if we make some sort of mid-season splash. Personally, I want to get as much value as possible for our expiring players and tool up for next year, when our starting pitchers try to come back and we have some cap space off the books to improve offensively. This year, the talent just isn't there at all to win it. Again, it's my opinion, but I think it would be silly to not get value for our expiring deals. I don't mind trading for players that can help us out in the future, as long as we don't give up to much to get them. But I just don't see how we can let our most valuable expiring players walk away for nothing when there is close to a 0% chance this team is going to win it this year. 

pretty much leaning that way right now.  Even doing the math, the Stros' have 99.9% chance of winning the division.  The Angels have a 15% chance of winning a WC spot.  

Espinosa is interesting because he's still a very good SS.  Something other teams might be looking for.  I doubt he's worth anything, but it makes me curious.  

Norris, Petit, Hernandez all have some value.  If you could pull a Juan Soto away from the Nats for Norris, I'd be cool with that.  

I think what Eppler will do is make guys available but not dump them just to do so.  But this is by far, the best opportunity to get some solid value in return for expiring contracts we've had for awhile.  It would be a shame to miss that opportunity.  

[yamsi12]

I think it's laughable that people are counting on anything from Richards & Skaggs next season.

[ten ocho recon scout]

1 hour ago, Dochalo said:

pretty much leaning that way right now.  Even doing the math, the Stros' have 99.9% chance of winning the division.  The Angels have a 15% chance of winning a WC spot.  

Espinosa is interesting because he's still a very good SS.  Something other teams might be looking for.  I doubt he's worth anything, but it makes me curious.  

Norris, Petit, Hernandez all have some value.  If you could pull a Juan Soto away from the Nats for Norris, I'd be cool with that.  

I think what Eppler will do is make guys available but not dump them just to do so.  But this is by far, the best opportunity to get some solid value in return for expiring contracts we've had for awhile.  It would be a shame to miss that opportunity.  

Weve made fun of billy beane in the past for constantly aquiring and flipping players. This wouldnt be a bad time to do the same, imo. I wouldnt be against bringing someone over we dont need but who would maybe make a better package to trade later.