Dipoto still churning the M's roster

[totdprods]

The Mariners and Rangers I feel are both in a pretty similar situation - they have everything they need to be very good this year, but both orgs are skating on thin ice and I could see both orgs being right where the Angels were a couple years back. The Rangers have really, really eaten into their farm and they have a lot of holes they're going to need to fill soon. The Mariners are relying heavily on old, expensive players. 

Astros will be interesting. Enormous potential but I still have a hunch they're going to blow it. Either by not being aggressive enough or going too far, too fast. Luhnow doesn't seem to have the best intuition as to when to make a certain move, and that's been true over a long stretch of time now.

[Oz27]

25 minutes ago, Stradling said:

Still a very movable contract and yes he would fetch a pretty damn good return.  The Dodgers would take him as would the Rangers. 

What do you mean by "pretty damn good return"? Let's look at his numbers, from 2014 to 2016...

K/9: 9.46, 8.52, 7.16

BB/9: 1.75, 2.59, 3.82

K/BB: 22.1%, 16.1%, 8.7%

HR/9: 0.61, 1.03, 1.12

ERA: 2.14, 3.53, 3.82

FIP: 2.56, 3.72, 4.63

fWAR: 6.1, 2.9, 1.0

DRA: 1.73, 2.73, 4.71

Average fastball velocity: 92.4, 91.8, 90.5

Contact %: 73.8, 76.9, 80.2

Swinging strike%: 12.0, 10.7, 9.6

This isn't an anomaly, it's an alarming decline. His days as an ace are very likely done and his time as a productive pitcher might well be running out too. With $81 million left on that contract over three years, he doesn't really have any surplus value left and that means his trade value is pretty low. Someone would take him and they would give up something. But is he even worth one top 100 prospect anymore? Maybe someone would give up a fringe top 100 prospect (although I'd argue they probably shouldn't). Either way, Blarg's assertion that he is by far their most valuable trade chip is absurd. He isn't even close to it.

[Brent Maguire]

Felix has declined in every meaningful way for 3 straight years now. On a 3/79 contract, you can probably get a team to trade for him and throw in some decent prospects but the idea that he'll fetch a lot in return is probably inaccurate. 

2014: 2.14 ERA, 2.56 FIP, 2.51 xFIP, 6.1 WAR, 92.4 mph fastball

2015: 3.53 ERA, 3.72 FIP, 3.33 xFIP, 2.9 WAR, 91.8 mph fastball

2016: 3.82 ERA, 4.63, 4.45 xFIP, 1.0 WAR, 90.5 mph fastball 

With the amount of innings he's racked up, it's not that crazy to think he'll be more of a 3/4 starter going forward. I think teams are smart enough nowadays that there won't be teams lining up to send their top prospects away for Felix and his whole contract. That said, if he bounces back a bit this year to a 2.5 WAR 3.50 ERA type of season, I'm sure they could find more interested teams with only 2 years remaining on his deal. 

*EDIT* Beat me to it Oz. 

[Docwaukee]

Seager is Seattle's best trade chip by far.  

Felix has some value but after averaging 215ip for 10 yrs, he pitched 150 last year with his k rate being the lowest of his career and his walk and hr rates the highest.  He also had a near 2 mph drop in his avg fb velo.  He's owed 80mil over the next 3 years but does have a 1m team option for 2020 should he get hurt.  Most teams are going to stay the hell away from him big time.  Other teams might give a couple of players from their top 20 if seattle kept some of the money.  His arm is probably toast.  No one is giving up a top haul of prospects for him.  

Cruz is redundant to guys still available on the market.  He'd get a prospect or two, but nothing special.  

A guy like Edwin Diaz would get them a nice haul.  

And of course Segura has really good value.  

[Stradling]

14 minutes ago, Oz27 said:

What do you mean by "pretty damn good return"? Let's look at his numbers, from 2014 to 2016...

K/9: 9.46, 8.52, 7.16

BB/9: 1.75, 2.59, 3.82

K/BB: 22.1%, 16.1%, 8.7%

HR/9: 0.61, 1.03, 1.12

ERA: 2.14, 3.53, 3.82

FIP: 2.56, 3.72, 4.63

fWAR: 6.1, 2.9, 1.0

DRA: 1.73, 2.73, 4.71

Average fastball velocity: 92.4, 91.8, 90.5

Contact %: 73.8, 76.9, 80.2

Swinging strike%: 12.0, 10.7, 9.6

This isn't an anomaly, it's an alarming decline. His days as an ace are very likely done and his time as a productive pitcher might well be running out too. With $81 million left on that contract over three years, he doesn't really have any surplus value left and that means his trade value is pretty low. Someone would take him and they would give up something. But is he even worth one top 100 prospect anymore? Maybe someone would give up a fringe top 100 prospect (although I'd argue they probably shouldn't). Either way, Blarg's assertion that he is by far their most valuable trade chip is absurd. He isn't even close to it.

Honestly it's all speculation but I could easily see a team that is a pitcher away from dealing their top prospect along with other prospects for a chance to catch lightning in a bottle with Felix. 

[Docwaukee]

1 minute ago, Stradling said:

Honestly it's all speculation but I could easily see a team that is a pitcher away from dealing their top prospect along with other prospects for a chance to catch lightning in a bottle with Felix. 

maybe 10 years ago, but not in this environment.  There's a really good chance Felix doesn't make it through the season.  I don't see any team giving up a top prospect.  If we gave up Jones and a couple of other guys, wouldn't you be super pissed?

[Inside Pitch]

1 hour ago, Angels_Baseball said:

Almost seems like teams are viewing him like Dombrowski. You'll bring Dipoto in and he'll do his best to make the MLB team a good unit but like Doc mentioned, he's sending a lot of club controlled players and prospects out in the process. It didn't work with the Angels but the situation in Seattle was eerily similar and he's doing his best to salvage the last good years of Cano, Felix, Kuma, Cruz, etc. 

DD likes to trade but Dombrowski was adept at building farm systems...   He cut his teeth in Montreal, he was hand picked by Bill Stoneman to take over as GM but his work at the farm level was legendary -- he was the guy I had hoped would take over in Anaheim when Stoneman wanted to retire.   The Montreal farm system was always among the best during his tenure there as well.

The M's draft last year was a near carbon copy of what JD did in Anaheim.

[Troll Daddy]

Hernandez is only 30 years old ... I wouldn't pay to much attention to the 'alarming decline talk'. 

[Stradling]

42 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

maybe 10 years ago, but not in this environment.  There's a really good chance Felix doesn't make it through the season.  I don't see any team giving up a top prospect.  If we gave up Jones and a couple of other guys, wouldn't you be super pissed?

Yes but if at the deadline we were a pitcher away I'd understand the decision. 

[Stradling]

16 minutes ago, Troll Daddy said:

Hernandez is only 30 years old ... I wouldn't pay to much attention to the 'alarming decline talk'. 

I'm not going to say he isn't declining, he obviously is, the numbers show it to be true.  I just believe he still has trade value. 

[totdprods]

33 minutes ago, Troll Daddy said:

Hernandez is only 30 years old ... I wouldn't pay to much attention to the 'alarming decline talk'. 

Uhh Weaver was just about 30 when he started losing velocity and declining, and he had a whole hell of a lot less miles on his arm. Felix will probably still be alright for a year or two, but the decline is obvious and there is definite reason to be concerned he could drop off steeply in a hurry.

[Docwaukee]

44 minutes ago, Troll Daddy said:

Hernandez is only 30 years old ... I wouldn't pay to much attention to the 'alarming decline talk'. 

TD pulls the battery out of the carbon monoxide detector because it keeps beeping.  

[Brent Maguire]

51 minutes ago, Inside Pitch said:

DD likes to trade but Dombrowski was adept at building farm systems...   He cut his teeth in Montreal, he was hand picked by Bill Stoneman to take over as GM but his work at the farm level was legendary -- he was the guy I had hoped would take over in Anaheim when Stoneman wanted to retire.   The Montreal farm system was always among the best during his tenure there as well.

The M's draft last year was a near carbon copy of what JD did in Anaheim.

True. I guess my point was teams look at Dipoto as a guy who will come in to try to push a team that's close to winning in a full win now mode. There's no doubt he's one of the best at making trades happen and getting the guys he wants. The results obviously have been mixed but it seems like quite a few teams do value him. 

FWIW, I like Eppler's approach much, much more. Towards the end of Dipoto's tenure, I'd cringe anytime he traded a worthwhile prospect for some marginal upgrade in the bullpen or for some bench piece. Eppler is building the farm while also slowly improving the MLB team. 

[Brent Maguire]

50 minutes ago, Troll Daddy said:

Hernandez is only 30 years old ... I wouldn't pay to much attention to the 'alarming decline talk'. 

Yes he's only 30 but he came up super young and is already near 2,500 innings pitched. It's not unreasonable to assume he's experiencing a natural decline that all pitchers inevitably face. 

[Second Base]

There are a ton of different ways to analyze an organization, but I'll say this: Dipoto inherited a contending team with a farm system that produced several stars at the major league level over the next few years and tons of payroll space. 

By the time he left, the team was no more a competitor than it was when he arrived, he maxed out the payroll and there was nothing left in the farm.

If that's Dipoto's MO then Seattle is screwed. He'll sign or trade for big name players that won't make the team any better, he'll make so many minor moves that when you look at them as a whole, you realize he failed to improve the team and was wasting resources, and his drafts will be the laughing stock of baseball, where every player selected is a college pitcher with #5 starter potential.

[Troll Daddy]

2 hours ago, Angels_Baseball said:

Yes he's only 30 but he came up super young and is already near 2,500 innings pitched. It's not unreasonable to assume he's experiencing a natural decline that all pitchers inevitably face. 

You're correct in your assumption .... although, most pitchers his age have pitched a lot of innings if you're including their minor league innings. He had a off year but he also had off years from 2006-2007 seasons. I doubt the Mariners have any interest in trading him anyways. He's capable of winning another CY Young award.

[Oz27]

4 hours ago, Stradling said:

Honestly it's all speculation but I could easily see a team that is a pitcher away from dealing their top prospect along with other prospects for a chance to catch lightning in a bottle with Felix. 

The remaining money on his contract is a lot more than he would be likely to get now on the open market. It's not like he has surplus value there. So is there really a team dumb enough to willingly overpay for him AND give up a decent prospect or two? Tony Reagins and Ruben Amaro don't have jobs anymore so I really doubt it. There really isn't much reason for optimism for Felix anymore. His raw numbers were bad and his peripherals were worse. Everything is trending downward, quickly. He might be able to squeeze out another season or two as an above replacement starter but the likely production and even potential upside just isn't worth paying him $80 million and having to give up a prospect.

[Oz27]

3 hours ago, Dochalo said:

TD pulls the battery out of the carbon monoxide detector because it keeps beeping.  

We can all picture him in a house fire...

[bruin5]

With Eppler it's pretty clear to see he values defense and organizational depth.  He's also shown a willingness to take a chance on high ceiling guys.  He seems to have a long term plan while still intending to attempt to compete in the present.  

With DiPoto, I don't know that I see a real philosophy.  He trades in the moment, with no apparent long term plan.  I don't believe he didn't have any input on Pujols or Hamilton, but, even if he didn't, he made the call on Baldoquin which may be one of the dumbest moves ever.   

He's a volume trader but, as John Wooden said, "never mistake activity for achievement".   I'm really not sure what Seattle saw in him, but it's not like they are noted for identifying front office talent.   

[AngelsLakersFan]

18 hours ago, Stradling said:

No I get it.  Arte has some of the blame, but it is possible to draft quality after round one and really Dipoto drafts left a lot to be desired.  I think Arte was on board with the Albert signing but I read something on here that at least intimated Dipoto was complicit in the signing.  Wilson was on Dipoto although I don't have a huge issue with that signing.  Josh I believe was the fall back plan after Greinke became out of reach.  

The bad contracts are not really the issue for this club. The barren farm system is 95% of the problem. Arte's unwillingness to go just a few million past a certain number for a significant upgrade is the other 5%.

[AngelsLakersFan]

33 minutes ago, bruin5 said:

With Eppler it's pretty clear to see he values defense and organizational depth.  He's also shown a willingness to take a chance on high ceiling guys.  He seems to have a long term plan while still intending to attempt to compete in the present.  

With DiPoto, I don't know that I see a real philosophy.  He trades in the moment, with no apparent long term plan.  I don't believe he didn't have any input on Pujols or Hamilton, but, even if he didn't, he made the call on Baldoquin which may be one of the dumbest moves ever.   

He's a volume trader but, as John Wooden said, "never mistake activity for achievement".   I'm really not sure what Seattle saw in him, but it's not like they are noted for identifying front office talent.   

Dipoto was a stats guy, and we were all so happy to finally have a stats guy after years and years of 'walks are a false stat,' runny bunt and whatever Vernon Wells was.

What I love about Eppler is that he is so obviously a scout at heart. He loves himself some raw untapped talent, and yet the very first thing he did as general manager was to build an epic organization and league wide statistical database headed by some, like, NASA stats engineer or something nerdy as fuck like that.

[Troll Daddy]

1 hour ago, Oz27 said:

We can all picture him in a house fire...

I see you stooped down to my level ... good job

[2112]

21 hours ago, Stradling said:

I'm not going to say he isn't declining, he obviously is, the numbers show it to be true.  I just believe he still has trade value. 

Every player has trade value.  With Hernandez, the M's could get good value back, but would have to pay some of his salary.   It depends if another team still considers him an ace, or a 3.

 

 

[totdprods]

Dipoto sends Luiz Gohara and Thomas Burrows to Atlanta for Shae Simmons and Mallex Smith. 

Yeah, Simmons and Smith both are young and have a lot of control still, but Dipoto continues to thin out that farm. Trades like this, when done at the volume in which Dipoto deals, fall right in line to what happened to the Halos system.

Mariners also Cody Martin DFAed, who is another arm I could see the Angels having some interest in.

[bloodbrother]

Jerry Dipoto isn't done yet. He's working on another deal that could include Mallex Smith, the OF he just acquired from the #Braves.

— Jerry Crasnick (@jcrasnick) January 11, 2017