Official MLB Hot Stove Thread (no Angels rumors or news here)

[Richard]

Here we go..

 

 

[nando714]

Dusty Baker will find a way to screw it up in 2017

[Oz27]

People here seem too inclined to forget how good Harper has been. He is a year removed from the best post-Bonds offensive season. He hit .330/.460/.649 and I don't think people appreciate how crazy that is. The only way he doesn't get paid $350 million plus is if his 2016 performance continues. But there is strong evidence he was injured and he's probably going to bounce back in a big way. $400 million is far from out of the question.

[wopphil]

8 minutes ago, Oz27 said:

People here seem too inclined to forget how good Harper has been. He is a year removed from the best post-Bonds offensive season. He hit .330/.460/.649 and I don't think people appreciate how crazy that is. The only way he doesn't get paid $350 million plus is if his 2016 performance continues. But there is strong evidence he was injured and he's probably going to bounce back in a big way. $400 million is far from out of the question.

But he has had just that one year of excellence, with the rest being merely very good.  If he goes into free agency coming off his typical .850 OPS season, he won't be getting $300+ MIL (let alone $400+).

[Troll Daddy]

His hair flip alone is worth $100MM

[Jig Stew]

1 hour ago, Troll Daddy said:

His hair flip alone is worth $100MM

We will never have a better Troll Daddy quote EVER!!!... dude drop the mike and never post again.. that right there is the quote of the decade!

[totdprods]

Red Sox acquire Tyler Thornburg from the Brewers for Travis Shaw, #12 prospect Mauricio Dubon, and their #22 prospect minor league P Josh Pennington. 

[Mark68]

15 hours ago, totdprods said:

He'd be much better off staying in Baltimore than he would be in Colorado or Texas. All those extra games in Toronto, Boston, and New York far outweigh the benefit of playing in Coors or Arlington. If used as an OF his defense is hidden by playing in smaller AL East outfields too.

If the Rockies signed him, he wouldn't be playing the OF. He would be at 1B. The Rox have plenty of outfielders. They need a first baseman.

And he would absolutely rake in Coors.

[totdprods]

11 minutes ago, Mark68 said:

If the Rockies signed him, he wouldn't be playing the OF. He would be at 1B. The Rox have plenty of outfielders. They need a first baseman.

And he would absolutely rake in Coors.

He would rake in 81 games in Coors, but he'd still have to play a lot of away games in San Diego, Los Angeles, and San Francisco. A lot harder to rake there than it is playing away games in Fenway, Yankee Stadium, and Rogers Centre. Camden Yards is pretty hitter-friendly too. AL East pitching pales in comparison to NL West too.

And I understand he wouldn't play OF in Colorado, but in the AL East, you could still derive some extra versatility out of him by utilizing him in the smaller AL East OFs. 

 

[Mark68]

He'd still have those games in AZ though, and some of those road games in Cali would be in the late summer non-marine layer months. Not to mention at least one series each in Chicago, Milwaukee, and Philly. So there's about 100 games there. And those 81 games in Coors will absolutely inflate his stats. He'd hit 50 one of those years.

[totdprods]

26 minutes ago, Mark68 said:

He'd still have those games in AZ though, and some of those road games in Cali would be in the late summer non-marine layer months. Not to mention at least one series each in Chicago, Milwaukee, and Philly. So there's about 100 games there. And those 81 games in Coors will absolutely inflate his stats. He'd hit 50 one of those years.

The 5 AL East stadiums Park Factor average out to 107.
The 5 NL West stadiums Park Factor average out to 101.

Yankee Stadium has also given up more HRs than Coors the last 3 years. 

9 of the Top 15 offense-friendly parks are in the AL, so that balances out the games in CHI, MIL, and PHIL. Still has to face NL West pitching vs. AL East pitching, and he didn't show much when he last played in the NL West. Granted he was battling some injuries, but I think he'd be better off staying in the AL East, where he can also DH. 

He'd be fun in Coors, no doubt. I just like Trumbo enough I think he'd be better off long-term in the AL East.

[Oz27]

11 hours ago, wopphil said:

But he has had just that one year of excellence, with the rest being merely very good.  If he goes into free agency coming off his typical .850 OPS season, he won't be getting $300+ MIL (let alone $400+).

I don't think that's at all likely to happen but even if it did he is still a pretty good chance at $300 million.

People really discount Harper's youth, too. He's two months older than Gary Sanchez. He's younger than some guys still considered highly rated prospects. His 2015 season may be his best season ever but it's unlikely we've seen the end of him being one of the top two or three best position players in the MLB. He'll hit free agency before the peak of the age curve, too. Unless his next two years are really bad, he is going to get paid a huge amount and $400 million is nowhere near as ridiculous as it seems.

[totdprods]

9 minutes ago, Oz27 said:

I don't think that's at all likely to happen but even if it did he is still a pretty good chance at $300 million.

People really discount Harper's youth, too. He's two months older than Gary Sanchez. He's younger than some guys still considered highly rated prospects. His 2015 season may be his best season ever but it's unlikely we've seen the end of him being one of the top two or three best position players in the MLB. He'll hit free agency before the peak of the age curve, too. Unless his next two years are really bad, he is going to get paid a huge amount and $400 million is nowhere near as ridiculous as it seems.

Yeah, I don't think it's that far-fetched. Giancarlo Stanton got 13/$325m. Harper will be what, 25, 26 when he hits FA? Someone might not do 10/$400m, but 12/$400m  ($33.3m AAV, Trout makes $34m his last three years on his deal) doesn't seem crazy at all, especially if he has another big year in '17 or '18. I imagine with how young he is there's a good chance he'll get an opt-out or two as well.

[SlappyUtilityMIF]

1 hour ago, totdprods said:

He would rake in 81 games in Coors, but he'd still have to play a lot of away games in San Diego, Los Angeles, and San Francisco. A lot harder to rake there than it is playing away games in Fenway, Yankee Stadium, and Rogers Centre. Camden Yards is pretty hitter-friendly too. AL East pitching pales in comparison to NL West too.

And I understand he wouldn't play OF in Colorado, but in the AL East, you could still derive some extra versatility out of him by utilizing him in the smaller AL East OFs. 

 

 

1 hour ago, Mark68 said:

He'd still have those games in AZ though, and some of those road games in Cali would be in the late summer non-marine layer months. Not to mention at least one series each in Chicago, Milwaukee, and Philly. So there's about 100 games there. And those 81 games in Coors will absolutely inflate his stats. He'd hit 50 one of those years.

 

Guys, it's all about the $$$$$$$$$ Whoever pays him more is where he is going to go! It's not about yard dimensions, thin air, competition.... Now, if he signed for less with the RedSox, Toronto or someone like that for a chance at a ring and playoff aspirations. I would believe the little things are involved in his decision. 

[SlappyUtilityMIF]

17 minutes ago, totdprods said:

Yeah, I don't think it's that far-fetched. Giancarlo Stanton got 13/$325m. Harper will be what, 25, 26 when he hits FA? Someone might not do 10/$400m, but 12/$400m  ($33.3m AAV, Trout makes $34m his last three years on his deal) doesn't seem crazy at all, especially if he has another big year in '17 or '18. I imagine with how young he is there's a good chance he'll get an opt-out or two as well.

Too bad the MLB isn't like the NBA and having guys team up....And Outfield of  Harper - Trout - Calhoun would make me start to tingle down stairs! But, we wouldn't be able to afford any arms.....

[Oz27]

24 minutes ago, totdprods said:

Yeah, I don't think it's that far-fetched. Giancarlo Stanton got 13/$325m. Harper will be what, 25, 26 when he hits FA? Someone might not do 10/$400m, but 12/$400m  ($33.3m AAV, Trout makes $34m his last three years on his deal) doesn't seem crazy at all, especially if he has another big year in '17 or '18. I imagine with how young he is there's a good chance he'll get an opt-out or two as well.

Yeah, it's very likely he asks for an opt out. I think people's view is skewed by there not having been one of the very top players in the MLB hit free agency in awhile. There isn't a comparison for someone as good as Harper hitting free agency at such a young age in a really long time.

Put it this way, this would have been Trout's free agent year. He could have commanded 15 years with an AAV north of $35 million (and the latter number seems conservative, it probably would have been more). That is a contract above $500 million. $400 million for Harper seems a bit less absurd when you put it in those terms.

[SlappyUtilityMIF]

24 minutes ago, Oz27 said:

Yeah, it's very likely he asks for an opt out. I think people's view is skewed by there not having been one of the very top players in the MLB hit free agency in awhile. There isn't a comparison for someone as good as Harper hitting free agency at such a young age in a really long time.

Put it this way, this would have been Trout's free agent year. He could have commanded 15 years with an AAV north of $35 million (and the latter number seems conservative, it probably would have been more). That is a contract above $500 million. $400 million for Harper seems a bit less absurd when you put it in those terms.

And there are very few teams that can afford that kind of contract and still put a competitive product on the field. Plus, it's baseball anything can happen come playoff time! 

[totdprods]

Brutally slow Winter Meetings so far. Hope this Sale trade happens soon..

[southpaw]

Sale to the red sox for Moncada, Kopech and 2 other minor leaguers

[totdprods]

Ooh, Moncada, Kopech, and more.

[Richard]

BOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO

 

[Docwaukee]

Sale is teed up for arm trouble.  CWS sold high.  

[m0nkey]

That's a good get for the white sox

[Dave Saltzer]

Why didn't we sign Moancada? He was the one I wanted us to splurge on, not Baldoquin . . 

[Oz27]

Wow. White Sox did well.