A bright spot in 2016

[marcosantinia12]

I was going to post this in the "pitchers/catchers" report threat but I haven't made a post in a while and I think it deserved its own thread. Seeing how our young pitchers develop/veterans bounce back is one of bright spots of this season. Despite of the disappointing off season, if the young guys can step up and the older guys give us a solid year, this season can be fun to watch.

I'm especially interested in seeing what Skaggs can contribute. Maybe I am being overly optimistic but I can see him being Richards' left-handed complement. Maybe Richards being a very good number 2 and Skaggs being an average-low 2. 

I want to see a more experienced and polished Heaney. Maybe he can be Homer Bailey-esque (2012/2013 Bailey). Their peripherals are very similar aside from Bailey's superior so/9 rate (although they were similar in their rookie seasons).

I still think that Santiago goes (maybe for a close to MLB ready OF/2B prospect)... but if he stays hopefully we can get something in between his two extremes from last year (1st half ERA: 2.33 ; 2nd half ERA: 5.47). Maybe stay around 3.40 -3.60 year-round. 

CJ is a good spring training away from being a big trade candidate but for the sake of this exercise, lets say he can replicate his 2014 performance and stay around 3.80. It shouldn't be too much to ask for, especially considering that he should be feeling better. 

Nick Tropeano reminds me of a young Shoemaker. I think he over performed last year but that's ok. I would gladly take a 4.00 ERA from him. What is interesting  is his high so/9 rate which is higher than both Richards and Heaney. . He's had a history of high rates in the minors too and have looked to transition very well. Here's a thought... move him to the pen? temporarily at least. Assuming we do not trade away our current depth, we will have excess of starters and I think he is a good candidate to help in the bullpen.

Matt Shoemaker. That's it, just Matt Shoemaker. I think we have a decent idea of what he will offer in 2016. We've seen both sides to him and we'll most likely see him settle down in the middle  around a 4.00 ERA. I think he is another candidate for the pen. 

Hear me out on Weaver... I've joined those who have lost hopes of seeing a decent weaver pitch again... His loss in velocity is just too drastic to overlook. BUT, lets ignore 2015 for a second. It is a big outlier. Even without last season we can see Weaver's regression, but it is also unfair to overlook the fact that 1 season does not do him justice. What if he was/is injured? Seems like Weaver is the exact type of player who would play through or lie about having an injury. What if something with his mechanics was off? fatigue? I don't know, but perhaps a new season will bring a fresh start. Throwing the way he throws currently, he posted a 2.79 ERA in 11 home games last year so he can still be an effective pitcher. His 3 year averages prior to last season have him at 3.24 ERA. I am not trying to be in denial but his 2015 ERA of 4.64 simply can't be the end of it. Best case scenario, he is on a down trend, but 2015 was a season to forget. We get a 3.50 ERA with clutch home starts from Weaver. I'd be happy if we managed to get a sub 4 ERA from him in 2016. After all, he has managed to do so in all but 1 season since beginning his career (excluding last year). 

Finally, Richards. I know most of us here are hoping for him to be the ace that he has shown he can be. However, like I mentioned, I think he is merely a very good number 2, comparable to a Shelby Miller. I expect him to pitch around the 3.00 ERA mark, and if he can limit the homeruns/walks he can be more around 2.85-2.95.

Of course, a lot of things have to go right and I am not taking account of possible injuries, trades, etc. But it will be interesting to see everyone and what they will provide nonetheless. 

[QuinlansMinion]

I dont think its smart to put any hope at all into a pitcher that is just coming off Tommy John surgery.

Btw how awesome would it be if Weaver only starts hom games. He could probably post a 3.00 ERA for the whole season if that happened. We all know Mike Scioscia doesnt pay attention to numbers though.

[SlappyUtilityMIF]

Hear me out on Weaver... I've joined those who have lost hopes of seeing a decent weaver pitch again... His loss in velocity is just too drastic to overlook. BUT, lets ignore 2015 for a second. It is a big outlier. Even without last season we can see Weaver's regression, but it is also unfair to overlook the fact that 1 season does not do him justice. What if he was/is injured? Seems like Weaver is the exact type of player who would play through or lie about having an injury. What if something with his mechanics was off? fatigue? I don't know, but perhaps a new season will bring a fresh start. Throwing the way he throws currently, he posted a 2.79 ERA in 11 home games last year so he can still be an effective pitcher. His 3 year averages prior to last season have him at 3.24 ERA. I am not trying to be in denial but his 2015 ERA of 4.64 simply can't be the end of it. Best case scenario, he is on a down trend, but 2015 was a season to forget. We get a 3.50 ERA with clutch home starts from Weaver. I'd be happy if we managed to get a sub 4 ERA from him in 2016. After all, he has managed to do so in all but 1 season since beginning his career (excluding last year). 

 

This is the only one that I worry about. We just can't have a guy on the roster who we will need to skip starts for (which will in the end tax a pitching staff) (and cost minor options) just so he can maintain some kind of Average or Good #'s just at home. It's tough I just don't see it happening the Dream Weaver we knew is gone. He might have times of off-speed brilliance. But, this arm is toast.

 

It's Time for induction into the Halos HoF and if he wants to continue his career elsewhere then let him. 

 

Nothing personal it's just business. And yeah it sux!

Edited February 9, 2016 by SlappyUtilityGuy

[Docwaukee]

Our pitching will be the difference for this team.  The offense will be what it is.  A bunch of dudes and Trout.  Middle of the pack.  probably not much better or worse than that. 

 

The halos pitching on the other hand has the possibility of finishing in the upper quarter or bottom quarter of the league. 

 

Richards could bring his 2014 back and pitch like an ace or he could be the fringy 2/3 he was last year

Heaney could take a step back in that there was a little bit of smoke and mirrors in his peripherals.  Or he could miss bats at a rate more in line with his minor league numbers and take the next step. 

Santiago could be anywhere from a strong #2 if he can somehow eat more innings or he could end up in the minors after some melt downs

Skaggs is a total crapshoot.  He's gonna be limited innings wise, but he's got excellent stuff.  Yet he wasn't the finished product before his injury. 

Wilson will likey be a touch better than his usual league avg.  Playing for another contract.  He's probably the most predictable of the bunch.

Weaver could be out of the rotation by the end of April.  Or he could show up to spring throwing 87mph with his old delivery.  My guess is that they DL him to start the season and let him ramp up slowly. 

Shoemaker was very good in 2014 and not so good in 2015.  Another guy who could be either of those again. 

Tropeano is better than people think but we still have no idea what sort of consistency he's gonna have and whether he really gets much of a shot. 

 

I don't even know what to think about the pen, but it's pretty much the same.  Could be very good.  Could be pretty bad. 

 

When can we start blaming Nagy? 

[mtangelsfan]

Our pitching will be the difference for this team.  The offense will be what it is.  A bunch of dudes and Trout.  Middle of the pack.  probably not much better or worse than that. 

 

The halos pitching on the other hand has the possibility of finishing in the upper quarter or bottom quarter of the league. 

 

Richards could bring his 2014 back and pitch like an ace or he could be the fringy 2/3 he was last year

Heaney could take a step back in that there was a little bit of smoke and mirrors in his peripherals.  Or he could miss bats at a rate more in line with his minor league numbers and take the next step. 

Santiago could be anywhere from a strong #2 if he can somehow eat more innings or he could end up in the minors after some melt downs

Skaggs is a total crapshoot.  He's gonna be limited innings wise, but he's got excellent stuff.  Yet he wasn't the finished product before his injury. 

Wilson will likey be a touch better than his usual league avg.  Playing for another contract.  He's probably the most predictable of the bunch.

Weaver could be out of the rotation by the end of April.  Or he could show up to spring throwing 87mph with his old delivery.  My guess is that they DL him to start the season and let him ramp up slowly. 

Shoemaker was very good in 2014 and not so good in 2015.  Another guy who could be either of those again. 

Tropeano is better than people think but we still have no idea what sort of consistency he's gonna have and whether he really gets much of a shot. 

 

I don't even know what to think about the pen, but it's pretty much the same.  Could be very good.  Could be pretty bad. 

 

When can we start blaming Nagy? 

 

Is that normal time or AO time?

[Angel Oracle]

Even I can see that it will be a challenge for Nagy, although he has 3 prior years as the D-Backs pitching coach.

So many variables to sort out, and just glad that it isn't Sleeps Like a Baby trying to sift through them.

Edited February 9, 2016 by Angel Oracle

[mtangelsfan]

9 games in..........

 

:0

[nate]

When you say Santiago could be a strong #2 you mean a BM right?

Dude is a #4 at best

[totdprods]

First half Hector was a #2.
Second half was brutal. But it was basically his first year where he went in knowing he'd be a full-time starter and I think he just tired or failed to adjust quick enough as the season went on.

I do see some value in giving Hector one more shot- maybe he puts it all together, maybe not as good as he was at the start but not as bad as the end, and sticks as a solid arm. May be worth the risk of letting him crumble and destroy his value.

 

Personally, I think they hope he performs well enough in ST to start the season in the rotation, catch lightning in a bottle again, and then transition him to the pen if/when he starts to falter, moving Skaggs/Shoe/Trop into his spot in the rotation. Think that may be why they didn't emphasize acquiring a solid lefty for the pen.

Edited February 10, 2016 by totdprods

[Angel Oracle]

Santiago is Nibs 2.0.

Excellent stuff, overthinks too much.

[nate]

I predict that the pitching staff will be worse.  Weaver is now a JAG.  CJ will be typically  worthless.  Santiago is one rung above 4A player.

 

The entire rotation will have to be carried by Heaney and Richards will have to carry the rotation and that is a lot to ask.  One of the two will probably regress.

 

The bullpen is an even bigger mess.

[laagamer]

I dont think its smart to put any hope at all into a pitcher that is just coming off Tommy John surgery.

Great article on surgery and success rates.

http://www.hardballtimes.com/tommy-john-surgery-success-rates-in-the-majors/

[AngelStew43]

The hope is that Scioscia puts Weaver in the number 4 or 5 spot in the rotation and leaves him alone, barring a return of 5-6 mph on Weaver's heater.  Right now, Weaver would be the best number 5 in baseball, the Mets excepted.  Richards, Skaggs, Wilson, Shoemaker, and Weaver doesn't put the fear of God into anyone yet, but they will.

[SlappyUtilityMIF]

[Stradling]

I predict that the pitching staff will be worse. Weaver is now a JAG. CJ will be typically worthless. Santiago is one rung above 4A player.

The entire rotation will have to be carried by Heaney and Richards will have to carry the rotation and that is a lot to ask. One of the two will probably regress.

The bullpen is an even bigger mess.

Based on your recent predictions I feel a lot better about our starting staff. Thanks Nate!

[Angel Oracle]

It is better than Nate is painting it to be.    But one can't blame him for being leery, as there are still questions all around, except maybe for Richards being at least a rock solid #2 starter in 2016.