The (sabermetric) case for Trout for MVP

[Angel Oracle]

As with Trout and Cabrera in 2012?

When Trout led the league in OPS+ and SBs, had a higher OBP than Cabrera, and was much more important defensively, but Cabrera won the MVP thanks to winning the triple crown? 

Edited October 28, 2015 by Angel Oracle

[HALOS23]

No they weren't.

Its really not even close

Jake Arrieta only set a record for the lowest ERA ever for the 2nd half of a season, but it's not close?

[Hollyw00d]

Harper had the greatest offensive season ever for a 22 year old, and one of the top 50 greatest seasons ever

I think that is more impressive than some luck and team dependent stat like ERA

[Troll Daddy]

The MVP of the WS/playoffs is based on hard stats ... I think that would be a good guide for the season MVP. Voters generally are not looking a evaluating type stats. I know it's not want you want to hear but it's been that way for ever. I believe if the Blue Jays missed the playoffs ... Donaldson would still get the award.

[Blarg]

Jake Arrieta only set a record for the lowest ERA ever for the 2nd half of a season, but it's not close?

when you have to qualify it with a half season it doesn't hold up as an argument.

[HALOS23]

Harper had the greatest offensive season ever for a 22 year old, and one of the top 50 greatest seasons ever

I think that is more impressive than some luck and team dependent stat like ERA

Well, I wouldn't dismiss ERA completely as luck but read this from fangraphs and maybe you will see just how AMAZING Arrieta's season was, especially the 2nd half, even sabermetrically.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/jake-arrietas-argument-for-the-best-season-half-ever/

By the way, I'm not arguing that Harper didn't have an amazing season, but I do think Arrieta had just as dominant season pitching wise ( or at least close) and should be considered for MVP.

[Stradling]

Its not like it was the tail of two different seasons with Arrieta, he was good all year long, very good, he just happened to be bananas the second half with a .75 ERA. He had a WHIP under 1 in the first half and 10 wins, ERA of 2.66. Dude had a great great season.

My belief is you only give it to a pitcher if there isn't a hitter deserving, this year that isn't the case.

[Tank]

trout won last year. i think donaldson wins this year.

[HALOS23]

Its not like it was the tail of two different seasons with Arrieta, he was good all year long, very good, he just happened to be bananas the second half with a .75 ERA. He had a WHIP under 1 in the first half and 10 wins, ERA of 2.66. Dude had a great great season.

My belief is you only give it to a pitcher if there isn't a hitter deserving, this year that isn't the case.

I understand that point, Stradling. My counter point in this is for people or vot ers who say Donaldson deserves it over Trout because Blue Jays made playoffs. Well, then Arrieta's team made playoffs and Harper's did not.

Last year Kershaw won. And Gia Stanton had a helluva year with the bat. I'm not sure what your take was then, but just pointing it out.

Good baseball discussion btw all

[Angel Dog and Beer]

How many dugout fights you start plus ejections from the umpires times Park factor then divided by hair douche factor.

Then Harper has no chance.

[Inside Pitch]

Regardless of who ends up winning Tiger fans will say one of their guys was robbed.....

[TroutBaseball]

Tulowitzki had a. 690 OPS for Toronto, he wasn't a factor.

It was Tulowitzki's defense that was a significant improvement for them over Reyes'.

[Angelsjunky]

I'm guessing if David Freese was on the Blue Jayss they'd still make the playoffs with that roster.

 

That's something to chew on. 

 

You take Mike Trout off the Angels, they're out of the race by July. If not sooner. 

 

Yes, true - a good point, but I'm not sure if the voters have that in mind. Again, I think they primarily look at traditional stats, contention narratives, and only then sabermetrics and context like you point out.

 

Anyhow, the voters have gotten better over the years. It was five years ago now that Felix Hernandez won the Cy Young despite winning only 13 games, and CC Sabathia winning 21 and several others winning 18+. So they looked beyond the win column, at least.

 

But here's the thing: There are valid arguments for Trout and for Donaldson. Even if Trout is ultimately more deserving, it isn't by a huge amount.

[Ohtaniland]

Trout will get the Hank Aaron Award or whatever that is called. MVP isn't just the best numbers. Trout is the best player in the game, but this is Donaldson's year. If he had a good, but not great August we wouldn't be having this conversation. Hell we would probably have made the playoffs. Obviously I am not blaming Trout for the team not making the playoffs, but if he hit .275 that month we probably win a couple more games.

If he had missed the entire season with a serious injury we would've been fighting to stay out of the cellar. I think Trout did enough but he didn't have much help. The guy only had 88 at bats w/RISP. I think Donaldson had 135. That's the difference maker.

[notherhalo]

But Trout does Subway commercials. I'm pretty sure Subway wants their spokeperson to be a reigning MVP.

 

Remember, money talks.

 

Edge: Trout

 

Go Halos!!!

 

 

Harper is easy. He was quite a bit better than everyone except maybe Goldschmidt and Votto, but was basically the same player--big bat, mediocre defensive player--but better.

 

Trout vs. Donaldson is more difficult. What is silly, though, is getting butthurt if Donaldson wins because he is plenty deserving. The sabermetrics slightly prefer Trout, but only by a hair. When you add in playoffs and traditional stats, Donaldson will get the award.

 

To put that another way, the MVP is determined by three factors:

 

Playoffs/impact on race

Traditional stats (BA, HR, RBI, Runs, SB)

Sabermetric stats (OPS+, wRC+, WAR, etc)

 

(One could argue that OPS is borderline between traditional and sabermetric, but OPS+ or wRC+ is more sabermetric).

 

Anyhow, Donaldson has the edge on the first two categories and Trout the edge on the last.

 

Edge: Donaldson.

 

You guys are both wrong!

 

Edge: Lowell

[fan_since79]

trout won last year. i think donaldson wins this year.

 

That's it right there. They might not want to give it to Trout two years in a row. Donaldson is definitely deserving and may not get another chance. This was a career year for him. Trout has much more potential to win another one.

[AngelsLakersFan]

That's it right there. They might not want to give it to Trout two years in a row. Donaldson is definitely deserving and may not get another chance. This was a career year for him. Trout has much more potential to win another one.

 

They say this every year they rob Trout. "Oh he'll win another one." "well this guy had a career year!"

 

Look at the Sporting News player of the year voting. Trout is way down the list, behind a bunch of guys having the best season they will ever have (but still not as good as Trout).