ISIS delenda est

[red321]

no idea...not sure how tied Turkey is to Russia economically since they are a part of NATO and they have looked to enter the EU.

[gotbeer]

Nah. I expect the Kurds to be fully funded and armed by Russia though. Erdogan just threw a rock at a hornets nest.

 

Yeah, the Kurds just got a big boost.  And the Turkmen just became the focus of Russia's attacks.  And if it is true that the Turkmen executed the pilots, I think international law will probably be on Russia's side.

[HaloFan85]

exactly. The geography is what makes it so vital, same as egypt, panama, etc.

Gonna be interesting to see how this goes down. Putin isnt exactly into detente so to speak. I dont see them responding with force, but i absolutely dont see them not responding...

My guess is Assad and Russia will declare a no-fly zone over Syria making anyone flying into their airspace 'fair game' unless they have explicit authorization from Assad or a mandate from the UN.  The US, Saudis, Turks, along with their other allies have been operating inside Syria 'illegally' since Day 1.  They've never had authorization which makes their campaign a clear violation of Syria's sovereignty.  Those days will soon be put to an end when Russia gets their missile defense S-300 & S-400 systems set up inside Syria.

[HaloFan85]

Russia deploys missile cruiser off Syria coast, ordered to destroy any target posing danger

https://www.rt.com/news/323329-russia-suspend-military-turkey/

 

[HaloFan85]

Erdogan is an islamist who regards the spread of the religion as the most important thing in the world. He probably loves what ISIS is doing,  his public denunciations of the group aside.

 

How Turkey got to be in NATO is beyond me.

Erdogan's son Bilal has been buying oil from ISIS and selling it to Japan, and his own daughter has been operating a hospital strictly used to help ISIS terrorists fleeing back to Turkey with injuries from battle.  That entire family is knee deep in this mess.

 

The US, Saudis, Turks, and Qataris are the main supporters and handlers of ISIS.

[red321]

My guess is Assad and Russia will declare a no-fly zone over Syria making anyone flying into their airspace 'fair game' unless they have explicit authorization from Assad or a mandate from the UN.  The US, Saudis, Turks, along with their other allies have been operating inside Syria 'illegally' since Day 1.  They've never had authorization which makes their campaign a clear violation of Syria's sovereignty.  Those days will soon be put to an end when Russia gets their missile defense S-300 & S-400 systems set up inside Syria.

 

Just don't see how a no fly zone over Syria works. How many countries, with their own end game in mind, are conducting maneuvers in the area. Anyone seriously proposing it at this juncture...you'd have to question their judgement.

[HaloFan85]

And of all those countries, how many have authorization from Assad or the UN?  Without it, they are in clear violation of a sovereign state and in violation of international law.  Assad and Russia have every right to impose a no-fly zone if they choose to.  I doubt it happens in the next few days, but I can see them moving towards that scenario over the next month or two.

[Tank]

Just don't see how a no fly zone over Syria works. How many countries, with their own end game in mind, are conducting maneuvers in the area. Anyone seriously proposing it at this juncture...you'd have to question their judgement.

 

agreed, but now it gives authorization for the syrians and russians to start shooting at any american planes they spot, which may have been one of their goals all along but assad didn't have enough fire power to carry it out until the russians jumped on board.

 

honestly, the more i think about it, the more i see the potential for WWIII breaking out.

[ten ocho recon scout]

It does have the possibility of WW3, tank. Probably not on the traditional sense though. I think the most likely scenario is (already happening) the entire region falls into civil war, with stateless groups like ISIS being the main players.

Basically turns into Syria/Iran vs the sunni countries. The russians and the west are basically on th same side for the most part.

[ten ocho recon scout]

My guess is Assad and Russia will declare a no-fly zone over Syria making anyone flying into their airspace 'fair game' unless they have explicit authorization from Assad or a mandate from the UN. The US, Saudis, Turks, along with their other allies have been operating inside Syria 'illegally' since Day 1. They've never had authorization which makes their campaign a clear violation of Syria's sovereignty. Those days will soon be put to an end when Russia gets their missile defense S-300 & S-400 systems set up inside Syria.

not sure. The russians would have to put men on the ground to protect those sams. And they wont be able to put them inside of isis' territory, which is to the east of where they have friendly syrian assets. The coalition mostly is coming from the north (turkey) and east of that (iraq, saudi, the gulf, etc)

[gotbeer]

What a truely ****ed up world that is.

 

'Severe blow': Al Qaeda suicide bomber takes out leadership of key ISIS brigade

[Amazing Larry]

That's why I'm saying we should just leave that place alone and let them kill each other. There's no reason (other than oil and gas) for us to be there.

[Blarg]

Russia deploys missile cruiser off Syria coast, ordered to destroy any target posing danger

https://www.rt.com/news/323329-russia-suspend-military-turkey/

"... He stressed that the Su-24 was downed over the Syrian territory. The crash site was four kilometers away from the Turkish border, he said."

I sure someone can do the exact math but four kilometers is about 15-20 seconds of flight time or less time than it took to identify the target, get lock and fire. So the bomber was certainly in Turkish airspace when contact was made.

I think the real problem is who exactly did the Turkish pilot think he was engaging? It is not as though ISIS has an airforce and it would make no sense that either Syria or Russia was on a bombing run of their territory. It seems like a pilot really eager to stencil a kill on his rig.

[ten ocho recon scout]

What a truely ****ed up world that is.

'Severe blow': Al Qaeda suicide bomber takes out leadership of key ISIS brigade

uhm...yay?

Thats like reading about boston taking a game from the dodgers in the world series...

[ten ocho recon scout]

"... He stressed that the Su-24 was downed over the Syrian territory. The crash site was four kilometers away from the Turkish border, he said."

I sure someone can do the exact math but four kilometers is about 15-20 seconds of flight time or less time than it took to identify the target, get lock and fire. So the bomber was certainly in Turkish airspace when contact was made.

I think the real problem is who exactly did the Turkish pilot think he was engaging? It is not as though ISIS has an airforce and it would make no sense that either Syria or Russia was on a bombing run of their territory. It seems like a pilot really eager to stencil a kill on his rig.

not toally sure, but ive read isis does have planes. Not sure how accurate. It would make sense if former iraqi pilots are in the ranks, and if they had been able to capture planes from the syrian AF. But probably not likely.

What was the relationship between russia and turkey before this, anyone know?

[Jay]

FWIW the Syrians have an air force and it's mostly Russian-made aircraft, including Su-24.

 

This wouldn't be the first time there was a skirmish between Turkish and Syrian aircraft.

[ten ocho recon scout]

^makes more sense

[Amazing Larry]

FWIW the Syrians have an air force and it's mostly Russian-made aircraft, including Su-24.

 

This wouldn't be the first time there was a skirmish between Turkish and Syrian aircraft.

 

The pilots were Russian. Videos of the Syrian Free Army picking them off while parachuting down and huddling around their dead bodies are not hard to find.

[mtangelsfan]

FWIW the Syrians have an air force and it's mostly Russian-made aircraft, including Su-24.

 

This wouldn't be the first time there was a skirmish between Turkish and Syrian aircraft.

I don't think so, Turkey has said they had given the aircraft several warnings so I'm guessing they were fully aware it was Russian.

[Jay]

The pilots were Russian. Videos of the Syrian Free Army picking them off while parachuting down and huddling around their dead bodies are not hard to find.

 

Understood the downed aircraft and pilots were Russian.

 

The question is did the Turks know they were firing on a Russian aircraft and if so why?  One explanation might be that the Turks thought the aircraft was Syrian.

 

I'm sure we'll find out soon enough.

[ten ocho recon scout]

Understood the downed aircraft and pilots were Russian.

The question is did the Turks know they were firing on a Russian aircraft and if so why? One explanation might be that the Turks thought the aircraft was Syrian.

I'm sure we'll find out soon enough.

actually is plausible. Especially if they think its a syrian plane bombing people on their border who the turks are backing

[arch stanton]

If they had given the plane several warnings as they say then they knew it was Russian. Even if they are identical airframes there are ways to tell who they belong to although when violating your airspace all you really need to know is that it isn't yours.

[Tank]

reports are the turks gave ten warnings in nine minutes. 

[Blarg]

That was 9 more than the Russians would offer a bomber over their soil.

[Blarg]

OK, Google is your friend.

 

A Russian SU-24 has about a 1,300 km/h top speed at sea level, 1,600 km/h at higher altitude. So lets split the difference and say once it was spotted the SU-24 high tailed it to the border at about 1,400 km/h.

 

The Russians claim it was 4 kilometers inside the Syrian border when hit but that means if it was leaving Turkish airspace it was only in Syria for about 10 seconds or less.

 

If the Turkish reports are true and they gave warnings for 9 minutes, that means the aircraft was about 210 kilometers inside of Turkish airspace. Not 4, over 200. That's almost the distance from Los Angeles to the Mexican border.

 

They may have taken the shot over Turkish airspace and it didn't hit until the bomber crossed the border or maybe it hit before and that is just how far the jet traveled before crashing. Either case the Russians were in the wrong airspace, they have the tech to keep them on their side of the border and took a flight well into Turkey before getting caught. Why were they there?