Revisiting the Myth of the Five-Man Rotation (fangraphs)

[Docwaukee]

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/revisiting-the-myth-of-the-five-man-rotation/

 

 

interesting article about the need for SP depth.  Not mind blowing or anything beyond pretty obvious, but interesting to see the actual breakdown.  Wish the actual individual team numbers were there.  Makes it pretty clear that we certainly need one more starter.  Last year, we needed two. 

[Brent Maguire]

I read this as well.

It makes it blatantly more obvious that this team needs another starter. One injury to a starter and we're looking at Shoemaker/Blanton as a starter.

[AngelsLakersFan]

Surprised to learn that Williams got the second most starts last year.

[Docwaukee]

our starter last year and their ERA in those starts by number of starts:

 

Wilson - 33, 3.39 era

Williams - 25, 5.06 era

Weaver - 24, 3.27 era

Vargas - 24, 4.02 era

Blanton - 20, 5.66 era

 

Richards - 17, 4.18 era

Hanson - 13, 5.59 era

The rest - 6, 7.00 era

 

The team gave up 461 ER in 162 starts or a 4.3 era.  Which was ranked 22.  Our FIP-, and ERA- rankings were about the same.  To be about middle of the pack for the league with our home field, we are going to need an era of about 3.8-3.9. 

 

They pitched 964 innings last year which was also about middle of the pack for starters. 

 

a 3.9 era from the starters would be 418 runs.  So to save about 40 runs with SP, what needs to happen

I will assume a few more starts from Weave with a similar era, a similar year from Wilson, and Richards equaling Vargas in both ERA and innings because he likely wont go more than 150 in his first full year. 

 

So

30 starts from Weaver at 190ip and a 3.3 era (70er)

34 starts from CJ at 210ip and a 3.4 era (80er)

25 starts from Richards at 150ip and a 4.1era (68er)

 

That's 550ip.  (218 er)

So the rest of the guys can give up another 200er in 400ip for a 4.5era. 

Can Garza/Tanaka or other, Skaggs, Santiago, and Mulder pitch 400 innings for a 4.5era?

 

If so, the team just prevented an additional 40 runs. 

[Angelsjunky]

As a side note, I can't help but wonder how many fan sites have discussions with "Tanaka/Garza" figuring into their starting rotations for 2014.

 

As for the article, I skimmed it a couple days ago and can't remember if they gave any numbers for how many teams have four or more starters with 30+ starts each, or five or more with 25+ each. I'm guessing that the majority don't.

 

Anyhow, the problem the Angels face is one of depth - and not just major league depth but more so high minors depth. If they sign a free agent then one of Skaggs and Santiago are relegated to the bullpen or minors, and both seem ready for a major league job. If they don't sign a free agent then Blanton (if the Angels keep him, which they probably will if they don't sign a free agent) and Shoemaker will likely get 20-30 starts between the two of them (I think you have have to assume that your 6th-7th starters will start 20+ games).

 

Now if the Angels had a prospect or two nearly ready, they could stash them in AA or AAA and bring them up only if needed. But a Maholm or Capuano can't really be stashed in the bullpen or AAA, so Santiago or Skaggs gets demoted.