Tanaka comparisons from Fangraphs...

[Stradling]

I love how we are all assuming that Tanaka will get $150 million, when I haven't read one report out there that says he will get that from a team. If he does get that much I have a strong suspicion it will be Arte giving it to him to strengthen the Angel Brand.

[Ohtaniland]

I love how we are all assuming that Tanaka will get $150 million, when I haven't read one report out there that says he will get that from a team. If he does get that much I have a strong suspicion it will be Arte giving it to him to strengthen the Angel Brand.

 

I would love to see that happen but....

 

1) I can't see them paying Tanaka almost 2x more than Weaver or Wilson.

2) I can't see them paying Tanaka (unproven) the same cash as they could have given to Greinke (proven).

3) The Yankees and or the Dodgers will be involved.

 

I still have hope because Tanaka brings something we really need, a young free agent that doesn't cost us a draft pick. 

 

[floplag]

the new posting system gives him the right to go wherever he wants... then again there was probably some back door dealings to let him post after the Japanese leagues got screwed out of posting fees so.... all that equals he will probably be in Seattle anyway so its moot, lol
either that or the Dogs or Yanks... noone else we be a serious player... not that they cant, only that it wont matter if they do or not, unless the go way over the top.

[Docwaukee]

Let me be clear.... IF the cost on Garza is 18 mil or IF the term is 5 years, im not interested in him either... just for the record... im betting it wont be.  if it gets that high he also is too big a risk.  If it comes down to lets say 5/90 on Garza, or 6 110-120 for Tanaka, i would go with Tanaka.. my point is i dont like either one of those ideas.

 

The bottom line is you guys in desperation mode on Tanaka... be honest... everything i keep getting hit back with is about the desperate need we have for pitching that justifies over paying etc... talk of upside without any concern for the down.. thats fine, i get that, i just dont agree. 

 

Im not saying anyone is wrong about our need... trust me im well aware of it... i just dont like how this puzzle fits together. 

 

I get that some are desperate for pitching.  The team certainly needs it.  But it's not just that the team has needs but that the team has needs of something that is of limited availability with decreasing supply and increasing cost. 

 

So it's not just about desperation of need but desperation of availability.  We have almost no one coming on the farm.  Weaver and Wilson are getting up there.  Other teams are locking up guys more frequently. 

 

I would default to the Angels staff to have them determine what they think Tanaka's value is over the next 6-7 years, and how that relates to what other options we have.  If their cost analysis coupled with their scouting says he's worth 100mil and they pay 150mil, then I agree it's a bad idea to overpay by that much. 

 

It's an interesting question though.  How much can the Halos justify over paying relative to value to get the guy that they want that they think helps the team the most for right now and for the next 5-6 years. 

 

Greinke is a good example.  Getting an average of 25mil per season.  With one outlier season of 10 WAR but otherwise averaging a shade over 3 WAR for his other six full time seasons.  Contract started at his age 29 season.  So thru age 34.  Granted, he's an established big league player but even since last year the cost of wins has gone up. 

 

I don't know the answer, but I will say that I'd be a lot more excited to get a guy like Tanaka than Garza or some other stop gap.  But hey, I was excited about the team getting Pujols even though I know what the end of that contract is going to be like. 

[Docwaukee]

 

I would love to see that happen but....

 

1) I can't see them paying Tanaka almost 2x more than Weaver or Wilson.

2) I can't see them paying Tanaka (unproven) the same cash as they could have given to Greinke (proven).

3) The Yankees and or the Dodgers will be involved.

 

I still have hope because Tanaka brings something we really need, a young free agent that doesn't cost us a draft pick. 

 

yeah, I think the Halos will be major players or they won't even bother.  If Arte doesn't see the franchise value here, then we'll kick the tires and move along.  I could see them involved just to drive the price up though. 

[Blarg]

It would make sense to make an offer to Garza now, before Tanaka goes through his process, just to see if the Angels can get him at a reduced cost. After the Tanaka sweepstakes is over everyone else is market rate for those that waited and that market right now is inflated.

[Mark68]

fine, i think you are overvaluing tanaka in that assumption... simple, right?

I think you're undervaluing him, based on where the market is, his age, the lack of draft pick compensation, and the fact that (I'm sure even you would agree) he's probably the best pitcher on the FA market.

 

The market is inflated, I get that. But we can't count on going into the season with the rotation depth as is. One or two injuries and it's Blanton time. Nobody wants that.

 

We're going to have to overpay for someone, so I'd much rather it be Tanaka than Garza.

[Inside Pitch]

It would make sense to make an offer to Garza now, before Tanaka goes through his process, just to see if the Angels can get him at a reduced cost. After the Tanaka sweepstakes is over everyone else is market rate for those that waited and that market right now is inflated.

 

I don't think they haven't tried, a few twitter reports have said that his representation is content waiting out the Tanaka situation.  I'm sure his agents have told him this is his best and likely last chance to cash in big time.

[Docwaukee]

I think you're undervaluing him, based on where the market is, his age, the lack of draft pick compensation, and the fact that (I'm sure even you would agree) he's probably the best pitcher on the FA market.

 

The market is inflated, I get that. But we can't count on going into the season with the rotation depth as is. One or two injuries and it's Blanton time. Nobody wants that.

 

We're going to have to overpay for someone, so I'd much rather it be Tanaka than Garza.

the market is inflated and I doubt it deflates any time soon.  Maybe it doesn't go up quite as fast as it did this year, but it's still going to go up.