So umm.. thoughts on Jerry Dipoto

[yk9001]

The salary was the gamble.   That's why it took until almost a year later for him to sign.

 

But that isn't a talent identification issue.  Bane identifying Weaver to draft was a no-brainer. 

 

If Weaver never signed, that wouldn't have been on Bane.  That would have been on Stoneman/Arte.

[sneaky_flute]

assuming he really wasn't responsible for the pujols and hamilton signings, his only bad move has been the blanton contract. that's a real head scratcher.

[avejoe1]

The Angels missed not only on Harvey but on Posey too because of being cheap.  They had the right to sign them both.  So add to all the top talent traded away Harvey and Posey and the International major league ready players not signed over the past four or five years and the International top prospects not signed and it is very understandable how this dumb ass organization is so bereft of talent.

[stormngt]

Problem is this.  In arbitration he will get around the $10 million in first year arbitration record that Howard got.  And probably around the $17-20 million in arbitration 2 and 3.  So that's $44 million, which sets him for life.  And if you say that's not guaranteed, then why are we going to then guarantee $170 million to someone that will get injured?  

 

He will get paid.  The question will really fall on Trout himself.  Does he want to play in Anaheim?  Because after he gets his $44ish million.  He really has a chance to get a 10/$300+ million plus.  So that's $174 million he'd leave on the table signing now.

You are right he probably will get 10 million in year one of arbitration.    However, I can't see a 17-20 million arbitration.  Maybe 17 in h is final year.  However, for him to get that he has to sustain his performance for three more years.  A down year reduces his award.  AND for Trout to get that money he would have to stay healthy for another three plus years.  Why would Trout take the Angels offer over waiting?  Simple, waiting is not a guarantee.  If the Angels make that offer this year it will be hard for Trout to turn it down.  Only a stupid person would turn down 170 million right now just because he may make three years later.  

 

Why would the Angels make the offer if Trout conceivably get hurt or decline? simple, its called a gamble.  You pay more right now so you don't pay ever more later.

[SoWhat]

The Angels missed not only on Harvey but on Posey too because of being cheap. They had the right to sign them both. So add to all the top talent traded away Harvey and Posey and the International major league ready players not signed over the past four or five years and the International top prospects not signed and it is very understandable how this dumb ass organization is so bereft of talent.

Posey was drafted in 2005 in the 50th round (1,496), what kind of slot bonus do think was required? These are throw a lot of darts picks, not first rounders or even second round, this is every team passed on him at least 45 times. That is not a million dollar draft bonus pick, he knew it and took a college scholarship that was monetarily more than any 50th round player's bonus. Oh and just to note, Posey is the only 50th round pick in 2005 to make it to the major league.

^^^^^

[stormngt]

I don't recall seeing any offer of $170M to Mike Trout for 10 years but I do recall him getting a $20,000 slap in the face raise. This is Albert's team and that's not going to change. Mike Trout is one of the elite players in baseball so can pretty much get what he wants. I don't think that he will want to hang around a team with aging veterans hitting .250 with no farm. Mike Trout is a winner playing on a below .500 team 11 games out. He's not going to want to hang around all thesat e underperforming players.

You obviously don't read well do you?  I said IF the Angels really want to keep Trout all they have to do is give him a contract offer he can't turn down.  I also said they need to do that this year because every year they wait closer to his free agency year the incentive for Trout to resign dissipates.

 

So let me ask you:  would you turn down a 170 million offer right now?

 

Quit the fear mongering about Trout leaving.  IF the Angels, and I mean IF, continue to nickle and dime the guy he will probably walk.  However, IF and I mean IF, they really want him they can offer a contract he can't refuse.

[stormngt]

Just to play the non roses edition.  But what if say this offseason the Angels offer Trout a 10/$200, and he says no, I'm going to test FA'cy, or says he doesn't think he will stick with the Angels he wants to go back east.  

 

Do we think of trading him?  

If he turns down 200 million, you do trade him.   Four years of him and gone is not worth what he could probably get for him.  However, knowing our luck, we would trade Trout for 9 can't miss prospects and:

 

One blows his knee out

Another blows his elbow out

Three are busts

Three are mediocre

decides to play football instead!

[stormngt]

Disagree, if I were Trout I'd play it out and go year by year with arbitration. Dude will break all records.

You must be thinking I was offering monopoly money.  You turn it down and you are stuck playing for the Angels hoping you game doesn't regress and more possible is the risk of injury.  Are you really willing to bet 170 million that you won't get injured?  170 million not only will take care of Trout for life, but also it should take care of his kids and grand kids for life as well. 

[AZMike]

You obviously don't read well do you?  I said IF the Angels really want to keep Trout all they have to do is give him a contract offer he can't turn down.  I also said they need to do that this year because every year they wait closer to his free agency year the incentive for Trout to resign dissipates.

 

So let me ask you:  would you turn down a 170 million offer right now?

 

Quit the fear mongering about Trout leaving.  IF the Angels, and I mean IF, continue to nickle and dime the guy he will probably walk.  However, IF and I mean IF, they really want him they can offer a contract he can't refuse.

 

Trout won't be offered an extension until Wells is completely off the books. 

 

I believe the only reason the Angels haven't already made Trout a 10 year offer at 8-figures/year is because of the luxury tax. In terms of the luxury tax, team's payroll is determined by the average value of the contracts being carried by the team. Pujols and Hamilton both count as $25M a year even though they are only getting $16M a year this year. The Angels are just barely under this year, and are on pace to be just under next year as well (Angels payroll will go up but so does the tax cutoff). 

 

If Trout were to be given a contract worth $17M/annum,that would be $17M against the luxury tax regardless of whether it is backloaded or not. It would be the tipping point between being under the cutoff and above the cutoff possibly across multiple years. Since the tax penalties increase dramatically based on the number of consecutive years a team goes over over, locking Trout into a long term deal now could result in millions in penalties down the road. That would negate any discount to the Angels achieved by selling Trout "insurance" in the form of an early contract extension. 

[stormngt]

There was close to zero gamble on Weaver in the draft.  He was the best pitcher in college that year.

there was a gamble that he may not sign and wait a year.

[stormngt]

Trout won't be offered an extension until Wells is completely off the books. 

 

I believe the only reason the Angels haven't already made Trout a 10 year offer at 8-figures/year is because of the luxury tax. In terms of the luxury tax, team's payroll is determined by the average value of the contracts being carried by the team. Pujols and Hamilton both count as $25M a year even though they are only getting $16M a year this year. The Angels are just barely under this year, might go over next year, but could conceivably go back under in 2015, which would reset the clock.

 

If Trout were to be given a contract worth $17M/annum,that would be $17M against the luxury tax regardless of whether it is backloaded or not. Trout being locked into to a long term deal would be the tipping point between the team being under the cutoff and above the cutoff. Since the tax penalties increase dramatically based on the number of consecutive years over, locking Trout into a long term deal now could result in millions in penalties down the road. 

 

This means selling Trout "insurance" by locking him into a long term contract early isn't as good of a deal for the Angels as many on this board are suggesting. 

 

Then you have two options:

 

A:  Pay the F'n tax because we really can't afford to lose the guy.

n.

B:  Offer Trout a 20 year 200 million dollar contract.  That way his salary would average just 10 million.  If need be trade Kendrick to keep that salary under the cap.

 

Just curious though, wouldn't Wells coming off the books help with the Luxury tax?

[AZMike]

Then you have two options:

 

A:  Pay the F'n tax because we really can't afford to lose the guy.

n.

B:  Offer Trout a 20 year 200 million dollar contract.  That way his salary would average just 10 million.  If need be trade Kendrick to keep that salary under the cap.

 

Just curious though, wouldn't Wells coming off the books help with the Luxury tax?

Wells coming off the books does help. I think after that time (the offseason before the 2015 season) is when Trout will be offered a long term deal. 

 

Your plan B is not a bad idea though. Trading away a few pieces (Kendrick, Callaspo etc) who still have positive trade value perhaps for some bullpen pitchers then planning to build around Trout from 2015 on is probably the wisest course of action. My guess is very few significant trade or free agent moves will happen one way or another for the next three years though.

[avejoe1]

Posey and Harvey were not unknowns.  They were highly rated but dropped in the draft having made it known that they either wanted to go to college or wanted a high bonus to sign.  The Angels could have signed them by paying the money.  The team chose to go with those that would sign for slot or below slot.  The Angels got what they paid for.

[Ohtaniland]

Then you have two options:

 

A:  Pay the F'n tax because we really can't afford to lose the guy.

n.

B:  Offer Trout a 20 year 200 million dollar contract.  That way his salary would average just 10 million.  If need be trade Kendrick to keep that salary under the cap.

 

Just curious though, wouldn't Wells coming off the books help with the Luxury tax?

 

So 10 years $170M or now 20 years $200M will do it?

 

In 2000 Alex Rodriguez signed a 10 year $252M. That's around $335M in inflation-adjusted 2000 dollars.

Trout will be patient and I still think it's all going to come down to a sign and trade deal with an east coast team for 10+ years and over $300M. 

[SoWhat]

I don't think neither was a mistake, no one knew that those two would become the players they are today. I've read that Harvey wanted a $7 Million dollar contract, he also had an unimpressive senior year in high school. Giving that much money for a kid who slipped up in his last high school season is pretty stupid. If he was asking for half of that..then yeah it's a mistake, but not for $7 mill

[gotbeer]

So 10 years $170M or now 20 years $200M will do it?

 

In 2000 Alex Rodriguez signed a 10 year $252M. That's around $335M in inflation-adjusted 2000 dollars.

Trout will be patient and I still think it's all going to come down to a sign and trade deal with an east coast team for 10+ years and over $300M. 

 

Just because of his strong east coast connections, I have a bad feeling that at most we will only be able to buy out one year of free agency of Trout.  Hope I'm wrong, but with how the team is structured, I just have that bad feeling.

[Ohtaniland]

Those back-loaded deals for Hamilton and Pujols are going to haunt this team for years.

[AZMike]

Those back-loaded deals for Hamilton and Pujols are going to haunt this team for years.

The Vernon Wells situation is chump change by comparsion

[YouthofToday]

Great, because of the deals for the Albert Pujols and Nightmare Child we may end up seeing Trout enter the Hall of Fame as a Yankee. Unreal.

[Inside Pitch]

The Angels missed not only on Harvey but on Posey too because of being cheap.  They had the right to sign them both.  So add to all the top talent traded away Harvey and Posey and the International major league ready players not signed over the past four or five years and the International top prospects not signed and it is very understandable how this dumb ass organization is so bereft of talent.

 

 

HS catchers have the lowest success rate among all position players.   That one is pretty easy to forgive.  Plus he was a very low draft pick,

[Vegas Halo Fan]

In terms of the luxury tax, team's payroll is determined by the average value of the contracts being carried by the team. 

 

I didn't realize this until I read it here. I always assumed that the current season's payroll determined the tax. I suppose that is MLB's way of keeping teams from gaining an advantage by backloading contracts or deferring salary as a way to circumvent the cap.

[YouthofToday]

If Wells is not on the team his AAV does not count against our payroll for luxury tax implications, right?

[AZMike]

If Wells is not on the team his AAV does not count against our payroll for luxury tax implications, right?

 

When money is sent over in trades, the team sending the cash is charged for the luxury tax, and the team receiving the cash gets to deduct that amount from their taxable payroll. Cash sent in trades is applied year-by-year for the tax though. 

 

 

Wells contract counts as $18M/year for luxury tax. This year the Angels are sending the Yankees $10M, next year the Angels are sending $18M. 

 

So for the luxury tax, Wells counts $10M against the Angels and $8M against the Yankees for 2013. He counts $18M against the Angels and $0 against the Yankees for 2014. The deal was structured this way as the Yankees are trying to get under $189M for the tax in 2014.

[YouthofToday]

Thanks for the clarification AZmike.

[Taylor]

He might possibly be the worst GM in baseball right now. Nothing he does seem to work out.  

 

True.