Feinsand: Angels are “very interested” in Blake Snell

[Blarg]

5 hours ago, RallyMo said:

Does one buy a Ferari on wish.com or temu.com?

Same place you buy a Rollex. 

[RallyMo]

4 hours ago, Inside Pitch said:

Let me know when one of those dot.coms sells parking at the stadium because as has been argued here, that's where the real costs are.

You can buy parking at Angee Stadium on there, which is really inexpensive.

[ettin]

Double Craig'd himself... rare event.

[RallyMo]

50 minutes ago, ettin said:

Double Craig'd himself... rare event.

I invented Craig’d. I get a lifetime free pass.

[RallyMo]

Not really. That was an atrocity.

[totdprods]

The Mariners dropping Eugenio Suarez for next to nothing and appearing to never get much traction in a pursuit for Ohtani leads me to wonder if they’re trying to eke out money for Snell. 

And if the Padres are looking to rebuild their rotation in a Soto deal, the Mariners are a good team to turn too, and for only a one-year commit Seattle might be okay just taking him as a rental. They’ve traded together a lot over the years. They’re my sleepers for a dramatic Winter Meetings, signing Snell and trading something like two arms (Gilbert or Kirby, a top SP prospect, and Marco to trim money and offering SDG innings) and Kelenic for Soto, and it wouldn’t really hurt their pitching depth at all if they signed Snell, would actually help break up a logjam. Mariners badly need a beast hitter in their lineup, and his defensive limitations fit perfectly for their usual approach to defense too. 

Also gives them a Snell, Castillo, Ray frontline three next year, so if they ‘lose’ Soto after dealing two arms, they sort of get one back when Ray returns from TJ, mitigating the loss a bit.

Edited December 2, 2023 by totdprods

[HBAngel13]

If the Mariners signed Snell, that would be a win-win.  Mariners get saddled with a high-risk contract and it keeps him away from the Angels. 

[Stradling]

We’re at the point where we are absolutely under valuing Snell. He’s had one year where his ERA has been above league average. He doesn’t give up many hits.  He doesn’t allow a crazy amount of homers. He strikes out batters at a good rate. The last three years he’s been pretty healthy averaging about 27 starts and the year before was Covid and he made 11 starts, which was a “full season” worth of starts that year.  He walks a ton which leads to throwing a lot of pitches. 

[HBAngel13]

Undervaluing?  Maybe strictly in baseball terms, but certainly not in economics. I’m not saying he isn’t a good pitcher, I just don’t think his profile is worth the contract he will likely demand.  Feels like maximum risk for medium reward. 
 

[Stradling]

2 minutes ago, HBAngel13 said:

Undervaluing?  Maybe strictly in baseball terms, but certainly not in economics. I’m not saying he isn’t a good pitcher, I just don’t think his profile is worth the contract he will likely demand.  Feels like maximum risk for medium reward. 
 

Medium reward?  He literally just had a full season of pitching where he won the Cy Young and allowed 47 total runs across 180 innings. For perspective Ohtani pitched 50 less innings and gave up 3 more runs. It’s high reward. 

[HBAngel13]

1 minute ago, Stradling said:

Medium reward?  He literally just had a full season of pitching where he won the Cy Young and allowed 47 total runs across 180 innings. For perspective Ohtani pitched 50 less innings and gave up 3 more runs. It’s high reward. 

I’m thinking over the life of the contract. Snell has had a couple great seasons for sure and he would likely be a big boost for 2024, but he isn’t a perennial TOR guy for me. MLB Trade Rumors had him at 7/200. I don’t think he is worth that and we can’t afford another albatross.  

[Stradling]

3 minutes ago, HBAngel13 said:

I’m thinking over the life of the contract. Snell has had a couple great seasons for sure and he would likely be a big boost for 2024, but he isn’t a perennial TOR guy for me. MLB Trade Rumors had him at 7/200. I don’t think he is worth that and we can’t afford another albatross.  

He’s been above league average almost every year of his career. He will probably get the same contract Nola got. Yamamoto has never pitched in the big leagues and might get $30 million a year for 8 years. That’s all risk. 

[HBAngel13]

7 minutes ago, Stradling said:

He’s been above league average almost every year of his career. He will probably get the same contract Nola got. Yamamoto has never pitched in the big leagues and might get $30 million a year for 8 years. That’s all risk. 

Any $200m contract is a huge risk.  Fair point on Yamamoto, but I am more comfortable investing big in a 25-yr old than a 30-yr old Snell.  We are paying for what’s to come, not what’s already happened. Plus Yamamoto would likely bring in additional revenue and attention a la Ohtani. 

Blake Snell is a good pitcher that can be great.  I just don’t think his future performance will justify the commitment.  He isn’t prime Verlander or Scherzer. 

If we could get Snell at 4/100 then absolutely.  But we know that isn’t happening. 
 

[Angelsfan1984]

Hell no! why would anyone want a 2x cy young?! What kind of idiot would want that.

[Taylor]

12 hours ago, RallyMo said:

I invented Craig’d. I get a lifetime free pass.

Did you really?

[Erstad Grit]

51 minutes ago, Angelsfan1984 said:

Hell no! why would anyone want a 2x cy young?! What kind of idiot would want that.

I don't get it either. He clearly had flaws but my goodness. Over pay the guy to stabilize the rotation for the next 3 years

[totdprods]

No one is disputing Snell isn’t a great pitcher, especially when he’s at the top of his game (twice in his career), but it’s the fact that he’s going to cost an amount that’s prohibitive to filling other needs this year and likely keeping them out of next year’s FA SP frontline crop, which has more options that are just as good and more consistent. 

Aside from every non-CY season he’s a 1-2 WAR pitcher. He’s won two Cy Young awards, yes, but hasn’t finished top 10 any other season. It’s all or nothing (well, not nothing, just average). Corbin Burnes has 1 Cy, plus a Top 10 finish all four of his full seasons. Bieber has one Cy and two other top 10 finishes. There’s more consistent, durability, length in games, right-handedness, local ties, and a year and some change younger with those guys. 

Still think best course of action this winter is a) buy the best #2-3 arm and an upside 1-yr deal or b) two #3’s to stabilize and have money for next year and have some money left over for bullpen and depth hitters this winter, without working yourself into a corner on next winter’s spending when you can target Burnes, Fried, or Bieber. 

Snell has hit 180 innings, his max, twice, both his CY seasons. Every other year he's consistently topping out around 100-130 innings. That's just not worth $30m+ AAV to me every year, not even if we can expect a third Cy in there. 

Edited December 2, 2023 by totdprods

[Stradling]

6 minutes ago, totdprods said:

No one is disputing Snell isn’t a great pitcher, especially when he’s at the top of his game (twice in his career), but it’s the fact that he’s going to cost an amount that’s prohibitive to filling other needs this year and likely keeping them out of next year’s FA SP frontline crop, which has more options that are just as good and more consistent. 

Aside from every non-CY season he’s a 1-2 WAR pitcher. He’s won two Cy Young awards, yes, but hasn’t finished top 10 any other season. It’s all or nothing (well, not nothing, just average). Corbin Burnes has 1 Cy, plus a Top 10 finish all four of his full seasons. Bieber has one Cy and two other top 10 finishes. There’s more consistent, durability, length in games, right-handedness, local ties, and a year and some change younger with those guys. 

Still think best course of action this winter is a) buy the best #2-3 arm and an upside 1-yr deal or b) two #3’s to stabilize and have money for next year and have some money left over for bullpen and depth hitters this winter, without working yourself into a corner on next winter’s spending when you can target Burnes, Fried, or Bieber. 

Snell has hit 180 innings, his max, twice, both his CY seasons. Every other year he's consistently topping out around 100-130 innings. That's just not worth $30m+ AAV to me every year, not even if we can expect a third Cy in there. 

Ok is it worth $25 million?  Because I think that’s closer to where he will end up. 

[Dtwncbad]

All free agent signings carry financial “risk” because you pay full retail and any player can get hurt or underperform.

But in reality the owner isn’t going to lose financially in the big picture regardless of how the player performs.

The risk is just that you can’t sign everybody and maybe the team fails on the field if the player underperforms.

The point I am trying to make is I am not sure I understand the knee-jerk concern of signing free agents worried about the contract not working out.

Yes, any player could crater and be an individual disaster contract.

Don’t we understand by now that the risk is built into the negotiation and is built into the final agreed upon contract?

These contracts would be 30-50% higher with no risk.

The Angels have a fairly decent core of emerging players, they have holes to fill to surround the young core, and the owner has plenty of money.

I am in full support of Arte signing players like a drunken sailor.  And that doesn’t mean I don’t support a constant effort to improve drafting and developing players in the Angel system.  Of course we want that too.  It’s not one or the other.

[RallyMo]

59 minutes ago, Taylor said:

Did you really?

Yep. Hi, @HaloNArizona!

[Taylor]

1 minute ago, RallyMo said:

Yep. Hi, @HaloNArizona!

We are forever grateful to you for coining the second-most iconic AWism (behind "your and idiot").

[HBAngel13]

8 minutes ago, Stradling said:

Ok is it worth $25 million?  Because I think that’s closer to where he will end up. 

I don’t think it’s the AAV as much as the contract length. He would be great on a 3-4 yr deal.  

[totdprods]

26 minutes ago, Stradling said:

Ok is it worth $25 million?  Because I think that’s closer to where he will end up. 

Closer to $25m, but I think he’ll get more and 2-3 more years on top of that.

He’d basically, at his best, replacing Ohtani’s mound production for almost the same amount of money but none of the offense. It’s almost a lateral/back-to-where-were started move without addressing the offense, the bullpen, and arguably at least 1, if not 2, more SPs with $25-$30m already spent. If Snell came in and was at the top of his game in ‘24, we’re basically getting Ohtani production on the mound and that didn’t get us over the top the last two years. We need more than one player and Snell’s cost makes that really hard without a farm to trade from or a deep FA class to spend on.

If we were an arm away, I’d be all for it, but we don’t have the rotation stability or the bullpen depth to blow our load on a guy who is likelier giving you 130 innings of ~3.75 ERA over the 180 IP sub-3 ERA Cy winner.

I still think you could Eduardo Rodriguez for much less and he wouldn’t give you the same ceiling, but he’d give you a higher floor. Maybe a steady 3-3.5 WAR, while giving you more durability, more innings, and more money to fill out the ‘24 needs while also giving you a shot to add a frontline arm next winter.

Edited December 2, 2023 by totdprods

[HBAngel13]

9 minutes ago, Dtwncbad said:

The point I am trying to make is I am not sure I understand the knee-jerk concern of signing free agents worried about the contract not working out.

I submit the following as Exhibit A:

Pujols

Hamilton

Wells

Upton

Cozart

Rendon

Thats a murderers row of futility.  It obviously hampered the club from making other moves to improve.

[Stradling]

11 minutes ago, HBAngel13 said:

I submit the following as Exhibit A:

Pujols

Hamilton

Wells

Upton

Cozart

Rendon

Thats a murderers row of futility.  It obviously hampered the club from making other moves to improve.

I guess we should never sign or trade for a player again because 3 GMs ago fucked up.