What is the recipe for long term success?

[floplag]

28 minutes ago, Dtwncbad said:

Bingo.

Yes, I am able to look at, and make a judgment on, the condition of the roster independent of the standings.

 

So how that roster performs against others doesn't enter into it.. got it, enjoy. 

[Dtwncbad]

The farm ranking are important.

But also must look a little deeper.

I think we would agree that if a team had  like 6 top 100 prospects, that the mlb would likely be pretty good 5 years later as these players graduated to the big leagues and got a year or two under their belts.

How many Angel fans would be surprised to know that the Angels have 6 top 100 prospects from 2017 and 6 top 100 prospects from 2018 (some are the same players)?

Some guys leap in the rankings.  Detmers was like #64 and then suddenly rated as #21 before he was promoted.

Remember Adell was way up there and then fell dramatically.

And if you aggressively promote players before they really crush it in the minor leagues, your system isn’t going to get ranked as high.

The only thing that matters really is how your system is feeding the big league roster with mlb players.

Objectively, I am not sure how you can really reconcile the pathetic rankings of the Angels system with the reality rusty hey have a pretty good number of good young players right now.

I am not saying the system is great.  But it is getting ranked way too low considering it’s actual production lately.

[jsnpritchett]

5 minutes ago, Dtwncbad said:

How many Angel fans would be surprised to know that the Angels have 6 top 100 prospects from 2017 and 6 top 100 prospects from 2018 (some are the same players)?

 

What list are you looking at?  Also, if you're counting Ohtani on the 2018 list, I've always thought that was sort of silly.  He was only a "prospect" in the technical sense of being under the Rookie of the Year limits.  Everyone knew he was coming straight to the majors and it's not like the Angels did anything to develop him.

[Dtwncbad]

14 minutes ago, jsnpritchett said:

What list are you looking at?  Also, if you're counting Ohtani on the 2018 list, I've always thought that was sort of silly.  He was only a "prospect" in the technical sense of being under the Rookie of the Year limits.  Everyone knew he was coming straight to the majors and it's not like the Angels did anything to develop him.

You can go back to old top 100 lists by year on mlb and sort by what team currently has that player.

And I know Ohtani is in a different category but it is also kind of dumb to exclude him because scouting him and pursuing him and landing him speaks to a success in being functional in getting a great player, which is the whole point of wanting a good farm system.

Like I (hypothetically) wouldn’t care if the Angels got ranked last every year in draft grades if they made up for it in player development.

You have to consider all of it.

Edited August 9, 2023 by Dtwncbad

[jsnpritchett]

Just now, Dtwncbad said:

You can go back to old top 100 lists by year on mlb and sort by what team currently had that player.

And I know Ohtani is in a different category but it is also kind of dumb to exclude him because scouting him and pursuing him and landing him speaks to a success in being functional in getting a great player, which is the whole point of wanting a good farm system.

Like I (hypothetically) wouldn’t care if the Angels got ranked last every year in draft grades if they made up for it in player development.

You have to consider all of it.

The Angels didn't have 6 guys on the MLB.com top 100 in either 2017 or 2018, unless you're looking somewhere I'm not. 

And we look at Ohtani in different ways.  To me, signing guys from Japan or Korea is more similar to signing major league free agents than it is to drafting and developing guys. 

[DMVol]

3 hours ago, Angel Oracle said:

Tying up $550 million in a soon to be 30 year-old seems to have disappointment written all over it, even for a unicorn.

How much longer can he excel at both pitching and hitting?   Three years tops?

I do wonder if the Ohtanimania has been a little bit of a distraction.

How about this.

Let someone like Cohen pay the $550 million.

Sign Yamamoto (no draft pick lost?) and re-sign Grichuk, Moose, Cron, Lopez, Moore, and Leone.

Not sure yet about Giolito, need to see more.

Should still be some $5-10 million under the tax threshold.

Yamamoto, Detmers, Sandoval, Silseth, Canning, Anderson 

Lopez, Moore, Estevez, Soriano, Bachman, Joyce, Leone, and someone like Diaz or Barria for long innings

Hopefully the AA pitchers all mature next season for decent enough depth.

Hope that DH’ing keeps Glass Rendon healthy and hitting for just enough power, and also rotate Trout as DH sometimes.

Neto, Trout, Moose, Drury, Moniak/Ward, Rendon, Grichuk, Cron, O’Hoppe, with Rengifo super utility guy 

In other words, bring back all acquisitions except Escobar, only add one key newcomer.

Have a little continuity, continue to draft solidly enough, and develop solidly enough.

And hire a new pitching coach.

Pretty much agree….the consistently good teams draft and develop. Rather than a Rendon, the optimal FA signing is a Drury type, maybe an Anderson (who has been ok after a rough start)…mid level guys…if they produce, great…if not, you haven’t handcuffed the budget like a Rendon deal…

[Dtwncbad]

Just now, jsnpritchett said:

The Angels didn't have 6 guys on the MLB.com top 100 in either 2017 or 2018, unless you're looking somewhere I'm not. 

And we look at Ohtani in different ways.  To me, signing guys from Japan or Korea is more similar to signing major league free agents than it is to drafting and developing guys. 

You misunderstand and I’m sure I worded it  not well.

The Angels organization CURRENTLY has six guys that were among the top 100 in 2017 and 6 from 2018.

[jsnpritchett]

4 minutes ago, Dtwncbad said:

You misunderstand and I’m sure I worded it  not well.

The Angels organization CURRENTLY has six guys that were among the top 100 in 2017 and 6 from 2018.

Yes, I just realized that's what you meant.  I don't know that that shows anything about the Angels organization's ability to develop players, though.  Of the guys on the 2017 list, they drafted/signed exactly zero of them.  From the 2018 list, only Ohtani (already discussed)  and Adell. Of the others from the 2018 list, Maitan and Gohara aren't with any organization: they're only listed under the Angels because that was the last franchise they were with before failing out of the sport. One other (Fernando Romero) was just picked up this year by the Angels after two years in Japan. He has allowed 23 baserunners in 8 innings, so if anything, that would seem to indicate pretty shitty scouting on him. 

[Dtwncbad]

9 minutes ago, jsnpritchett said:

Yes, I just realized that's what you meant.  I don't know that that shows anything about the Angels organization's ability to develop players, though.  Of the guys on the 2017 list, they drafted/signed exactly zero of them.  From the 2018 list, only Ohtani (already discussed)  and Adell. Of the others from the 2018 list, Maitan and Gohara aren't with any organization: they're only listed under the Angels because that was the last franchise they were with before failing out of the sport. One other (Fernando Romero) was just picked up this year by the Angels after two years in Japan. He has allowed 23 baserunners in 8 innings, so if anything, that would seem to indicate pretty shitty scouting on him. 

Right, so a portion of my point is these lists are not perfect.  Tons and tons of these top 100 types end up nobodies.  So it’s not always a disaster if you didn’t have these top rated guys that never panned put.

To reiterate, nobody can say the farm rankings don’t matter.  But you can say they are not reliable.

I just don’t think the Angels have gotten the “correct” credit for their farm performance over the last few years.

And I have personally been wrong on some players.  A couple quick examples are. . . I thought Ward would never hit.  I thought Thaiss would never be more than an emergency catcher in the bigs. And I didn’t think Silseth was really anybody either.

These three are not superstars big they are contributing big leaguers that matter.

Edited August 9, 2023 by Dtwncbad

[Revad]

7 minutes ago, Dtwncbad said:

Right, so a portion of my point is these lists are not perfect.  Tons and tons of these top 100 types end up nobodies.  So it’s not always a disaster if you didn’t have these top rated guys that never panned put.

To reiterate, nobody can say the farm rankings don’t matter.  But you can say they are not reliable.

I just don’t think the Angels have gotten the “correct” credit for their farm performance over the last few years.

And I have personally been wrong on some players.  A couple quick examples are. . . I thought Ward would never hit.  I thought Thaiss would never be more than an emergency catcher in the bigs. And I didn’t think Silseth was really anybody either.

These three are not superstars big they are contributing big leaguers that matter.

We were super lucky Thaiss stepped up.  But like some of our pitchers (think Canning) are approaching the upper limits of innings for the year, Thaiss hasn’t tried to be a full time catcher before.  I wouldn’t try it myself.

Edited August 9, 2023 by Revad

[khouse]

Maybe a tad over-simplistic but...

 

[Revad]

There’s nothing like “what’s up, doc?”

[AngelsMetsWS]

Never resign your own free agents. 
lock em up early on team friendly deals if you can but otherwise goodbye. 

[Jay]

Angels attendance over the years, interesting chart:

https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/ANA/attend.shtml