Mid-way assessment: This is the year to make some moves

[Angelsjunky]

Well, we're exactly halfway through the season. The team is 44-37 (which obviously projects to 88-74). They're +0.5 ahead for a wildcard spot and 5 GB the Rangers for the division. At this point, both are within reach.

Where They're At

Compare where the team was at the midway point over the last several years:

2022: 37-44, 7 GB wildcard, 15.5 GB 1st

2021: 40-41, 6.5 GB wildcard, 9 GB 1st

2020: NA

2019: 41-40, 3.5 GB wildcard, 9 GB 1st

2018: 41-40, 4 GB wildcard, 12.5 GB 1st

2017: 41-40, 1 GB wildcard, 12.5 GB 1st

2016: 33-48, 10.5 GB wildcard, 18.5 GB 1st

2015: 43-38, +1 GA wildcard, 4 GB 1st

So you have to go back to 2015 to find a year in which the Angels were so well situated to reach the postseason. That year the Angels went 42-41, finished 85-77, 3 games out of 1st and missed the wildcard by a game.

(Notice also the uncanny consistency between 2017-19 and 21: all a game within .500, and the exact same record three years in a row).

As for 2023, the Rays (54-28), Orioles (48-30), and Rangers (48-31) all seem like virtual locks for playoff berths - they'd have to have epic collapses to not be able to coast in. Add in the eventual Central division winner, and that leaves two wildcards up for grabs, with the Yankees and Angels currently holding spots, but the Blue Jays (0.5 GB), Astros (1 GB), Red Sox (3.5 GB), and possibly Guardians (4.5 GB) and Mariners (4.5 GB) in the mix.

Or to put it another way, right now it looks like a four team race for two spots: the Yankees, Blue Jays, Angels, and Astros, with the Red Sox, Guardians, and Mariners all on the outside looking in, but not yet out of contention.

What They Have

How has the team performed in its various components, relative to the 29 other teams?

Hitting: 4th in wRC+ (114) and 6th in Runs scored (403)

Defense: 10th in Def (5.3)

Pitching (overall): 14th in ERA (4.04), 17th in FIP (4.18)

Starters: 18th in ERA (4.35), 14th in FIP (4.25)

Relievers: 6th in ERA (3.57), 17th in FIP (4.08)

So overall the hitting has been very good, the defense has been above average, and the pitching has been about average.

That said, let's consider that over the past month, the Angels have been 10th in ERA and 12th in FIP...so have improved a bit from early rocky performance (especially the rotation). Their 128 wRC+ over that same time period is 2nd best in the majors.

The Angels don't exactly have a minor league brimming with talent, but they do have some nice pieces. Furthermore, with the graduation of their two best prospects (O'Hoppe and Neto), they don't have any true A-grade prospects, just several good ones sprinkled amongst a lot of wildcards and mediocrities.

What They Need

Given their place in the standings--in the hunt, but not running away with it--and the needs of the team--bolstering the pitching staff--it certainly looks like they're going to make some moves, or more moves after Escobar and Moustakas (and I'm not even going to bring up the Ohtani Dilemma).

Or to put it another way, I'd be rather surprised if all of Adell, Adams, Bush, Paris, Quero, Jackson, Rada, Kochanowicz, Joyce, Madden, Guzman etc were still on the team come August 2nd. It is also possible that the Angels would trade someone like Ward or Renfroe, and call up Adell.

So what do they need, really?

I don't think they need to bolster the lineup or bench at this point - they don't really need anyone. While Escobar and Moustakas aren't sexy, they do plug the leaky infield. But the rotation and/or bullpen is definitely possible.

Ohtani, Detmers, and Canning have all been pitching well of late. And while Sandoval and Anderson haven't, their FIP over the last month or so points to likely improved performance coming up. Barria has also been solid though his FIP is much higher than his ERA - but that fits his career as a "FIP beater" (3.88 ERA, 4.74 FIP).

But the Angels will likely look for a starter to replace on of Anderson or Barria, and thereby bolster the bullpen while they're at it.

The bullpen looks solid on paper, yet we're still seeing blown leads every few games. I wouldn't be surprised to see the Angels go after an elite reliever as well. 

So my prediction would be one starter and one reliever. But both would need to be very good - there isn't a lot of point in just adding quantity. They need quality.

A second possible scenario is that they go after two relievers, and go with the rotation they have, figuring that with a strong bullpen they can tighten things up on that end.

They could also theoretically go after three pitchers: either a good starter and a depth guy, plus a reliever, or a good starter and two relievers. 

Regardless, expect to see two or three new pitchers incoming over the next month....

[stormngt]

Interesting, the Angels were had a one game lead as Dopshit quits on the team.  Thus leaving them with no GM during a critical point in the season, and unable to make any trade to improve the roster.

[Jeff Fletcher]

Guardians

[Angelsjunky]

3 minutes ago, Jeff Fletcher said:

Guardians

[Chuck]

10 minutes ago, Jeff Fletcher said:

Guardians

 

3 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

Fixed it.

I make the same mistake all the time. 

[ten ocho recon scout]

.... looking at those halfway point records the past several years....

 

.... thats... consistent.

[Chuck]

Max Scherzer anyone?

 

[Angel Oracle]

12 minutes ago, Chuckster70 said:

Max Scherzer anyone?

 

Has struggled some this season.

Only averaging 5.4 innings per start, WHIP 1.18 and ERA 3.95 still decent to solid, but turns 39 in July

$15 million owed by late July is a lot to pay, given that.

Edited June 28, 2023 by Angel Oracle

[UndertheHalo]

We’re definitely in better shape than we’ve been but the biggest decision that the organization needs to make is what they’ll do going forward.  Are they committing to a permanent increase in payroll - into the top 3-5 range, 220 mil aav - this is what will be necessary if we’re keeping Ohtani around.  And if not, then truly they need to plan for the post Ohtani era. 

[DMVol]

56 minutes ago, ten ocho recon scout said:

.... looking at those halfway point records the past several years....

 

.... thats... consistent.

It really is.....I guess you don't appreciate how consistently mediocre we've been until you look at the numbers..

[Angelsjunky]

5 minutes ago, UndertheHalo said:

We’re definitely in better shape than we’ve been but the biggest decision that the organization needs to make is what they’ll do going forward.  Are they committing to a permanent increase in payroll - into the top 3-5 range, 220 mil aav - this is what will be necessary if we’re keeping Ohtani around.  And if not, then truly they need to plan for the post Ohtani era. 

They can't really do that now, though - or at least this season. I mean, not trading away prospects, but it isn't like they're holding onto a bunch of elite prospects, and it might actually be better for the future to bolster the team for a playoff run this year--and improve their chances of re-signing Ohtani--then holding onto a bunch of decent to pretty good prospects, none of whom look like future stars (with the possible exception of Quero).

I think the Angels will go all-in on trying to win this year - at least as much as they can. Meaning, another starter and a reliever or two.

Beyond that, I think the plan remains the same whether or not Ohtani re-signs. They'll need to replace or extend a few players but almost everyone of significance is under club control. If Ohtani doesn't sign, they might go after a bat and another starter, but that means instead of spending $50M AAV on Ohtani, they'll be spending $30-40M on two players to replace him.

The overall hope for the Angels remain the same: improve scouting and player development. Hard to know how much Minasian has done that, but it seems the needle is slowly moving in the right direction.

[Hubs]

59 minutes ago, Chuckster70 said:

Max Scherzer anyone?

 

Scherzer puts us over the lux tax line.

[Dtwncbad]

The way Scherzer is pitching he just isn’t worth the contract attached to him.

The Mets will get nothing for him. 

[T.G.]

 

[totdprods]

A lot can change between now and Aug. 1...

My biggest concern isn't a particular area, it's Trout slumping. If we go into the playoffs without him finding himself, we'll have a good team, but could be living on the edge without some real impact players outside of Shohei...

So I would wager that, should things stay fairly the same the next month (ha), what we'll see is Perry come up with a package of prospects he feels okay dealing and then shops around for the best impact player he can find. Scherzer? Hader? Goldschmidt? Stroman? The rotation, the bullpen, the offense...they've all shown to be decent, so it may be just as simple as adding the biggest talent they can land, regardless where they play, with the best package they're willing to surrender. 

I do think the pen needs a vet addition or two at a bare minimum, just so they can keep some flexibility if they need to rotate guys like Soriano, Bachman, eventually Joyce either due to them being overused, struggles, needing a fresh arm...the pitching staff has very little option flexibility right now. Those guys are about it, cause I don't see them sending down Canning if they get in a usage, and Wantz is right up to the limit of times he can be optioned for the year. Webb and Devenski can't be. Eventually we'll see an effective reliever have to be demoted again. It might be better if Joyce, Bachman, and Soriano spend August rotating between 1-2 MLB spots with a vet occupying the other 2-3, and then bringing them up fresh in September when rosters expand.

[Jeff Fletcher]

1 hour ago, UndertheHalo said:

Are they committing to a permanent increase in payroll - into the top 3-5 range, 220 mil aav - this is what will be necessary if we’re keeping Ohtani around.

The only way the Angels can win consistently while paying Ohtani that much is to have a strong farm system. 
 

Also, the only way the Angels can win consistently without Ohtani is to have a strong farm system. 

Edited June 28, 2023 by Jeff Fletcher

[Hubs]

9 minutes ago, totdprods said:

 

I do think the pen needs a vet addition or two at a bare minimum, just so they can keep some flexibility if they need to rotate guys like Soriano, Bachman, eventually Joyce either due to them being overused, struggles, needing a fresh arm...the pitching staff has very little option flexibility right now. Those guys are about it, cause I don't see them sending down Canning if they get in a usage, and Wantz is right up to the limit of times he can be optioned for the year. Webb and Devenski can't be. Eventually we'll see an effective reliever have to be demoted again. It might be better if Joyce, Bachman, and Soriano spend August rotating between 1-2 MLB spots with a vet occupying the other 2-3, and then bringing them up fresh in September when rosters expand.

Agreed, Davidson sitting there occupying a roster spot makes zero sense. If they replaced him with a vet, they still couldn't option the vet, but they could se that player in more high leverage situations and the pen would be better.

Estevez, Devenski, Webb, Bachman, Soriano, Wantz, Loup, Davidson is the current pen, right?

Estevez, Kelly, Moore, Devenski, Bachman, Soriano, Webb, Loup is a better pen, right?

[Second Base]

The only move I feel adamant about them making, is bolstering the bullpen. Every elite team seems to have an elite bullpen. And as exciting as all these young power arms that they have are, when it comes down to it, I don't want to hang the entire season on a rookie. One or two at a time is understandable, like Francisco Rodriguez back in 2002. But right now you're looking at Soriano, Joyce, Webb, possibly Silseth or even Yovan down the line. 

Getting Matt Moore back will certainly help, but I would like to see if Perry can acquire a veteran reliever without mortgaging the farm.  As Fletcher said, we can't really do any of this without a farm regardless of Ohtani.

The best way forward is with a strong farm, and that's going to take a couple years to have that kind of depth. Part of the reason why we don't have it right now, is because guys have been promoting so fast, and the others are busting and not promoting at all. There hasn't been a whole lot in between, and it's those in between prospects with steady progress that create depth on the farm. 

So get some more cost reliever help. 

[Angel Oracle]

Kelly and Chapman are both good targets for the pen.

By late July, Kelly will be owed $3 million and Chapman will be owed $1.4 million.

Tax threshold is only about $3.6 million away though.

I would also trade/DFA Davidson and bring up Diaz as the long man in the pen, and if acquiring 2 relievers trade/DFA Loup.

One caveat: both Kelly and Chapman will have a lot of trade suitors because of the low salary.  Could drive up the prospect price to acquire both.

Edited June 28, 2023 by Angel Oracle

[Chuck]

1 hour ago, Hubs said:

Scherzer puts us over the lux tax line.

It's not my money though. 

I feel like if you're all in, you're ALL in without restrictions. 

[Hubs]

3 minutes ago, Chuckster70 said:

It's not my money though. 

I feel like if you're all in, you're ALL in without restrictions. 

I'd rather get someone who is here next year if they go over, or if they don't then a rental is ok. 

 

[Hubs]

9 minutes ago, Angel Oracle said:

Kelly and Chapman are both good targets for the pen.

By late July, Kelly will be owed $3 million and Chapman will be owed $1.4 million.

Tax threshold is only about $3.6 million away though.

I would also trade/DFA Davidson and bring up Diaz as the long man in the pen, and if acquiring 2 relievers trade/DFA Loup.

Cot's has them about $6M before the tax.

And I'd get them so they would be here right before the second half starts. It's better to have them for that stretch against Houston and the Yankees.

[Angelsjunky]

11 minutes ago, Chuckster70 said:

It's not my money though. 

This was disproven as a valid premise a decade ago, courtesy of...

[Angelsjunky]

1 hour ago, totdprods said:

A lot can change between now and Aug. 1...

My biggest concern isn't a particular area, it's Trout slumping. If we go into the playoffs without him finding himself, we'll have a good team, but could be living on the edge without some real impact players outside of Shohei...

 

I agree re: Trout. But one thing to consider is that this isn't the old "Trout plus Calhoun/Pujols and scrubs" lineup of five years ago. Beyond Trout and Ohtani, almost the entire lineup are above league average. There are a bunch of players that are in the Calhoun level: Renfroe, Drury, Thaiss, Moniak (assuming he settles in around 120 wRC+ the rest of the way), plus solid contributors like Neto, Moustakas, Wallach, Ward, Escobar. 

Rendon is the wild-card. I think realistically he is--if healthy--more in the Renfroe/Drury class than a star hitter.

As for Trout, here's an update:

Last 8 games: .296/.441/.704, 210 wRC+.

June: .184/.351/.368, 106 wRC+.

He's getting better. But I am a bit worries that in those last 8 games, almost all of the damage was done in 3 games. In four of those games he was 0-14 with 6 Ks.

But the last eight games might give us a window into what to expect: ups and downs, but in a closer pattern. So he might have a great game, a decent one, then two bad ones, then three very good games, etc. Not sure we're going to see a hot streak in which he consistently mashes for weeks on end, but the overall result should be significantly better than what we say in May and most of June.

[WicketMaiden]

3 hours ago, Chuckster70 said:

Max Scherzer anyone?

 

Yes, Scherzer is the sort of move the Dodgers pull off to push for a play-off run.

Mets will have to eat a chunk of the salary which could bring the Angels into it, especially if there are one or two of Eppler's old draftees still on the farm that he still likes.