Three Different Paths Forward This Offseason

[Angelsjunky]

With the upcoming Winter Meetings, there's lots of speculation as to what Minasian and the Angels might do, and with it a great deal of uncertainty. For one, Minasian has already plugged significant roster performance leakage with the acquisitions of Tyler Anderson (starting depth), Gio Urshela (bench depth), and Hunter Renfroe (starting outfielder). But holes remain, or at least questions: the bullpen lacks firepower, the starting middle infielders, and the sixth starter.

Those questions have in-house answers: The Angels have David Fletcher and Luis Rengifo, both of whom have strengths and weaknesses. Fletcher is a Gold Glove caliber second baseman and a plus shortstop, but with a weak bat. Rengifo seemed to have a legit breakthrough with the bat last year, but is probably average plus at second base and average minus at shortstop, so doubles with Fletcher as a guy who is best utilized at second base. Gio Urshela is stretched at either position, but could fill in in a pinch, and is more likely to rotate as a super utility player who provides insurance for Rendon and Walsh, and ends up accruing regular playing time at multiple positions (or so Minasian says). Livan Soto and Andrew Velazquez will duke it out for the final bench spot, though one or both will likely end up in AAA to start the season. But the point being, the Angels have adequate coverage of the middle infield, but have room for improvement - especially with a starting shortstop, which would move Rengifo and Fletcher into a 2B/UT platoon.

The Angels have a ton of starting pitchers in the high minors who should become major leaguers of some kind: Chase Silseth, Ky Bush, Davis Daniel, Coleman Crow, Mason Erla, eventually Sam Bachman, etc. Plus they have Griffin Canning and Chris Rodriguez set to return. They also have some relief pitchers in Ben Joyce, Eric Torres, and Luke Murphy who--along with some of the starters--could bolster the bullpen at some point. Meaning, as with the middle infield, they should have adequate coverage of the back-end of the rotation and bullpen, but could still improve - especially the bullpen.

Two other minor questions exist: Who will back-up or platoon with Max Stassi, and who will be the fourth outfielder? Right now the answer to the former is probably Matt Thaiss, but Logan O'Hoppe could also sneak into a platoon role with a strong spring, though the Angels might want to give him regular playing time in Salt Lake until either Stassi flops or gets hurt. As for the latter, right now Mickey Moniak seems the likely option, though the Angels might want to send him to AAA with Jo Adell and sign a veteran outfielder. At the least, we're likely to see some kind of minor league veteran signed as insurance, in case Moniak can't hit and Adell continues to struggle with his various issues.

All that said, what are the possible paths forward? No one seems to have a good handle on whether--or to what degree--the impending sale influences Minasian's offseason plans. He says it doesn't, but...how can that be the case? Presumably he's mostly correct: the Angels have already built up their 2023 payroll to close to 2022's levels. But what is unclear is whether they think improving the teams odds of competing in 2023 by, say, signing one of the big shortstop free agents will hurt or help the Angels organization's sale appeal. Would a new owner rather have a better team that has a payroll above the luxury tax, or a worse team that has a lower payroll? And would such a signing impact their ability to offer Shohei Ohtani a competitive contract?

Anyhow, I see three basic paths forward for the remainder of the offseason, all with two factors in mind: The impending sale (which, again, we don't know how it impacts the offseason except to say, "probably to some degree, but not hugely so") and Minasian's rebuilding of the farm, which implies that he won't empty it out in trades.

1. Bolster the roster, but don't break the bank (or trade away the farm). This is pretty much what we've seen so far this offseason. It would mean that there will be no further major moves beyond possible trades, but likely no huge trades due to prospect cost. The modus operandi--as illustrated by his three acquisitions--is: raise the floor of the major league team's performance without either spending a mint or trading away top prospects. Plug the wholes, and trust the talent on the team to be competitive in 2023.
2. Go all in on the Ohtani-Rendon-Trout Window. Rendon is signed for four more years, Trout isn't getting younger and hasn't played in 150 games since Trump's first year in office, and Ohtani may be gone after this year. This could mean going after one of the big shortstops or possibly more significant trades (and thus prospect cost), and trying to win in 2023.
3. Thread the needle. This is a hybrid of the above two: Don't break the bank or trade top prospects, but bolster with a few more minor to moderate signings and be aggressive on the trade market, with a willingness to spend some prospect value. This may end up looking like #1 above if Perry can't pull off any trades, but with at least the attempt to make something happen. This also might see him try to package one of, say, Rengifo or Jose Suarez with prospects to upgrade the rotation, bullpen, or middle infield.

 

Which path will Perry take? Well again, signs point towards the first or possibly third - but the Winter Meetings haven't happened yet, so we don't know if Perry won't get "big splashy" (2) or try to be ultra-savvy (3). My guess is that his intention is #3, but wouldn't be totally surprised to see #2, with #1 as the default in case #3 doesn't work out or he doesn't want to (or can't) spend on a big free agent.

 

[Revad]

I’d like to see them thread the needle, but that may mean using some of the top prospects.  I don’t think they’ll exceed the luxury tax so at least one more trade.

[Warfarin]

I just can't really envision Arte willingly spending a fortune this offseason.  What incentive does he have to do so?  The team will be sold before the season's over, so he won't be an owner of a "winner," and adding large contracts will likely only be a negative in terms of a sale (it won't stop one, but a 300+ mil contract will certainly be seen as a liability that will, to some degree, factor into the sales price).

[BTH]

52 minutes ago, Warfarin said:

I just can't really envision Arte willingly spending a fortune this offseason.  What incentive does he have to do so?  

The only way I could see him spending a fortune this offseason, besides a new owner pulling the strings, would be if he takes an approach where he signs off on anything and everything saying “do whatever you want, I’m not gonna have to pay for these deals.”

But I think that’s very unlikely.

[ThisismineScios]

The thing with ownership is regardless of what WE think about a bloated payroll, an new owner (having just spend $2.5-3 billion, will unquestionably be excited about something like Trout-Ohtani-Correa-Rendon because it is incredibly marketable. The only one that isn't, I think, is Swanson, and he's the cheapest. But if I'm a new owner, I'm spending that kind of money because I want to compete. Tell me, why would a new owner not want to shell out money for Carlos Correa, Trea Turner, or Xander Bogaerts? When was the last time a professional franchise was sold and the new owners immediately scaled back payroll? It hasn't happened. So I'm not factoring that in. 

I think more likely is the years that do the Angels in, or a desire for a certain location. Trea may want to be on the East Coast, Swanson may want to stay in Central or Eastern Time Zone (wife plays for NWSL team in Chicago), etc. A desperate team may give Correa 10 years, Trea 9, and so forth. If the Angels reached an agreement with one of them, they could send out Walsh, Fletcher, Loup, and Tepera to save some money; possibly even Stassi. I don't know that I'd call it likely, but I think the immediate dismissal is a bit short-sighted. 

More likely, and actually preferably for me personally, I would rather trade for an above average SS (Rosario, Hoerner), sign an $8-10 million starter, 2 more relievers at $3-5 million, and then walk into the season with great depth. The thing about signing another starter is it gives you flexibility with Canning, C-Rod, Barria, and even Suarez. 

[Warfarin]

1 hour ago, ThisismineScios said:

The thing with ownership is regardless of what WE think about a bloated payroll, an new owner (having just spend $2.5-3 billion, will unquestionably be excited about something like Trout-Ohtani-Correa-Rendon because it is incredibly marketable. The only one that isn't, I think, is Swanson, and he's the cheapest. But if I'm a new owner, I'm spending that kind of money because I want to compete. Tell me, why would a new owner not want to shell out money for Carlos Correa, Trea Turner, or Xander Bogaerts? When was the last time a professional franchise was sold and the new owners immediately scaled back payroll? It hasn't happened. So I'm not factoring that in. 

I think more likely is the years that do the Angels in, or a desire for a certain location. Trea may want to be on the East Coast, Swanson may want to stay in Central or Eastern Time Zone (wife plays for NWSL team in Chicago), etc. A desperate team may give Correa 10 years, Trea 9, and so forth. If the Angels reached an agreement with one of them, they could send out Walsh, Fletcher, Loup, and Tepera to save some money; possibly even Stassi. I don't know that I'd call it likely, but I think the immediate dismissal is a bit short-sighted. 

More likely, and actually preferably for me personally, I would rather trade for an above average SS (Rosario, Hoerner), sign an $8-10 million starter, 2 more relievers at $3-5 million, and then walk into the season with great depth. The thing about signing another starter is it gives you flexibility with Canning, C-Rod, Barria, and even Suarez. 

That would be what I would prefer, too, or something along those lines.  Give me a solid SS and upgrades at other needed positions.  I would say a solid 4th OF, in addition to the above that you just mentioned, so that both Moniak and Adell can serve as AAA depth.

[angelsnationtalk]

7 hours ago, Warfarin said:

I just can't really envision Arte willingly spending a fortune this offseason.  What incentive does he have to do so?  The team will be sold before the season's over, so he won't be an owner of a "winner," and adding large contracts will likely only be a negative in terms of a sale (it won't stop one, but a 300+ mil contract will certainly be seen as a liability that will, to some degree, factor into the sales price).

I can't either based on history, but then again, he can spend stupid amounts of money and not have to worry about it next year. 

There's no way a potential buyer is going to say "you're spending $40M over the tax? Yeah, no thanks i'm out". 

It's a So-Cal team in the second largest sports market in America.
The new owner can completely rebrand the Angels and build a brand new stadium and potentially have his own TV network.

Arte needs to spend the damn money this year and then not worry about it. He has zero reasons as to why he can't blow the payroll out of the water. 

Leave with a bang and maybe we'll invite him to the World Series celebration parade. 

[Stradling]

Just now, angelsnationtalk said:

It's a So-Cal team in the second largest sports market in America.

The new owner can completely rebrand the Angels and build a brand new stadium and potentially have his own TV network.

Arte had no debt and wasn’t able to do those things. This new owner or ownership group is spending $2-3 billion.  Not sure it’s a guarantee that those things happen. 

[angelsnationtalk]

Just now, Stradling said:

Arte had no debt and wasn’t able to do those things. This new owner or ownership group is spending $2-3 billion.  Not sure it’s a guarantee that those things happen. 

Nothing is, but doesn't mean it won't happen. Either way, the new owner will be in a good position having immediately acquired two of the best players on the planet in one hell of a market. It'll be the ultimate Christmas for them.

[Swordsman78]

1 minute ago, Stradling said:

Arte had no debt and wasn’t able to do those things. This new owner or ownership group is spending $2-3 billion.  Not sure it’s a guarantee that those things happen. 

 

[Stradling]

12 minutes ago, Swordsman78 said:

 

You are literally the only one who would call me negative. It’s funny. 

[Warfarin]

9 hours ago, angelsnationtalk said:

I can't either based on history, but then again, he can spend stupid amounts of money and not have to worry about it next year. 

There's no way a potential buyer is going to say "you're spending $40M over the tax? Yeah, no thanks i'm out". 

It's a So-Cal team in the second largest sports market in America.
The new owner can completely rebrand the Angels and build a brand new stadium and potentially have his own TV network.

Arte needs to spend the damn money this year and then not worry about it. He has zero reasons as to why he can't blow the payroll out of the water. 

Leave with a bang and maybe we'll invite him to the World Series celebration parade. 

I don't think that will be the case, but rather, whatever Arte spends, he will likely be responsible for at least some of it, unless the sale occurs before the start of the season (possible?).  

It's just hard to see why it would benefit him and why he'd be like "sure, I'll give out all of this money to players, then leave."  I don't know, I guess I just have trouble seeing how it's something he'd want to do.

All that said, I think we should all be grateful he is selling, and all be optimistic that the new ownership will at least spend quite a bit more than him.  For years, we didn't have a lot of hope in terms of the future of the organization, but this sale is most definitely a reason to be optimistic about the future.

[ten ocho recon scout]

14 hours ago, Swordsman78 said:

 

Nice pull. Oddball is a legend.

[Pancake Bear]

5 hours ago, Warfarin said:

I don't think that will be the case, but rather, whatever Arte spends, he will likely be responsible for at least some of it, unless the sale occurs before the start of the season (possible?).  

It's just hard to see why it would benefit him and why he'd be like "sure, I'll give out all of this money to players, then leave."  I don't know, I guess I just have trouble seeing how it's something he'd want to do.

All that said, I think we should all be grateful he is selling, and all be optimistic that the new ownership will at least spend quite a bit more than him.  For years, we didn't have a lot of hope in terms of the future of the organization, but this sale is most definitely a reason to be optimistic about the future.

He's walking away with close to $3b. Maybe a few extra dollars isn't something he's overly concerned about.

[Warfarin]

2 minutes ago, Pancake Bear said:

He's walking away with close to $3b. Maybe a few extra dollars isn't something he's overly concerned about.

Maybe, but has anything in Arte's previous actions indicated he would do this?  Look at all the stories about how our minor leaguers were treated.  Arte could have easily shelled out like 1-2mil to significantly improve the quality of life for our entire minor league system, but he did not.  I think we are one of the worst organizations when it comes to its treatment of minor leaguers.  Generosity does not seem to be in Arte's wheelhouse, IMO.

[Pancake Bear]

Just now, Warfarin said:

Maybe, but has anything in Arte's previous actions indicated he would do this?  Look at all the stories about how our minor leaguers were treated.  Arte could have easily shelled out like 1-2mil to significantly improve the quality of life for our entire minor league system, but he did not.  Generosity does not seem to be in Arte's wheelhouse, IMO.

He wasn't walking away with $3b then either. Besides, it's his last shot at a ring. 

[Warfarin]

2 minutes ago, Pancake Bear said:

He wasn't walking away with $3b then either. Besides, it's his last shot at a ring. 

I guess.  I don't know.  I just don't have many positive feelings about Arte as an owner, and I find it doubtful he would spend more now to get a ring.  I feel like his goal will be to walk away with every last possible dollar that he can.  Of course, I would love to be wrong and see some mega contracts handed out.

[Stradling]

1 minute ago, Warfarin said:

I guess.  I don't know.  I just don't have many positive feelings about Arte as an owner, and I find it doubtful he would spend more now to get a ring.  I feel like his goal will be to walk away with every last possible dollar that he can.  Of course, I would love to be wrong and see some mega contracts handed out.

If that was the case then why spend the $30+ million he’s spent this off season. 

[Duren, Duren]

If keeping Ohtani happy via contention this season is a priority  it means they have to go all in now. It's a tough organizational dilemma. Instead of a steady, incremental long term blueprint they have to aim for key veteran additions. And that means likely big expense and/or risky trades. With the ownership question mark it gets even more complicated. 

You would have to think that there have been discussions with Ohtani's braintrust about the bigger team picture, time frames as well as money. Unfortunately it could be that the destiny of one player shapes the entire strategy of the organization. 

What happens in the off season one way or another may foreshadow whether signingr Ohtani is the main objective or whether they just intend to build differently for the future.

[Swordsman78]

1 minute ago, Duren, Duren said:

If keeping Ohtani happy via contention this season is a priority  it means they have to go all in now. It's a tough organizational dilemma. Instead of a steady, incremental long term blueprint they have to aim for key veteran additions. And that means likely big expense and/or risky trades. With the ownership question mark it gets even more complicated. 

You would have to think that there have been discussions with Ohtani's braintrust about the bigger team picture, time frames as well as money. Unfortunately it could be that the destiny of one player shapes the entire strategy of the organization. 

What happens in the off season one way or another may foreshadow whether signingr Ohtani is the main objective or whether they just intend to build differently for the future.

If I was the buyer, I would already be talking to Ohtani's people right now.  

LIke I mentioned on a previous post, it would not surprise me if during the press conference announcing the new owner, that the second thing the new owner says is that they signed Ohtani.   It would be a great way to make a big positive splash with the fan base.  

Similar to Arte lowering the beer prices.

[Angels 1961]

Angels should sign Zack Britton

[Warfarin]

57 minutes ago, Stradling said:

If that was the case then why spend the $30+ million he’s spent this off season. 

I don't necessarily know.  The one thing that he has seemed to be pretty consistent about is raising the payroll by a little bit each year.  Maybe he is running on auto pilot and doing the same thing this offseason.  But, yes, I would love to see him just totally throw it all aside and see this team jump up to, say, 250mil+ in total team payroll.  I don't see that happening, but I would absolutely love to be wrong and have this re-quoted so I can happily eat my words.

[Swordsman78]

It wouldn't be disappointing if Perry picked up a #1-2 starter and a quality reliever in lieu of a SS either.

[Warfarin]

10 minutes ago, Swordsman78 said:

It wouldn't be disappointing if Perry picked up a #1-2 starter and a quality reliever in lieu of a SS either.

In theory, I would be all for the concept of the following:

1.  Sign Senga - Fangraphs projects 4/60, MLBTR projects 5/75

2.  Trading one of our young pitchers (either Sandoval or Detmers?) for Adames.

That would add ~25mil to the payroll, but would avoid a gigantic inflexible contract, would ensure we have a great SS for the next 2 years at least, and likely have the same SP results, with the added bonus of having the rotation a bit more balanced, as we'd have 3 LHPs instead of 4 LHPs.

[Pancake Bear]

27 minutes ago, Warfarin said:

In theory, I would be all for the concept of the following:

1.  Sign Senga - Fangraphs projects 4/60, MLBTR projects 5/75

2.  Trading one of our young pitchers (either Sandoval or Detmers?) for Adames.

That would add ~25mil to the payroll, but would avoid a gigantic inflexible contract, would ensure we have a great SS for the next 2 years at least, and likely have the same SP results, with the added bonus of having the rotation a bit more balanced, as we'd have 3 LHPs instead of 4 LHPs.

There's legitimate questions whether Senga will even be an effective major league starter.