Minasian believes this team can be a winner. So what will it take?

[Erstad Grit]

43 minutes ago, Inside Pitch said:

Why? Because he had a hot half season in a severe hitter's park?  I don't hate the guy but I think people are overrating the guy. 

Drury for his career through age 28 (2021), owned a career OPS+ of 84.  If one needs to put that into perspective, Matt Thaiss' 640 OPS was good for a 84 OPS+ last season.  Walsh's awful season was good for an 81 OPS+, and in Drury's case were are talking about his entire career prior to last year.  Defensively, he's bad to mediocre everywhere he plays.  He is basically a better version of Matt Duffy and even he managed an OPS+ of 98 through age 28 and he was at the worst a league average defender most seasons.

I believe Drury would be useful as a depth piece, but I can't envision using the word great to describe him and my guess is his power surge last year likely drives his price up.  It's also worth noting that power surge dried up the second he left Cinci.  My guess is Drury waits out Profar to try to get the best deal he can.

Why?

Because I have zero confidence in Walsh and Rendon and I doubt we sign anyone significant in this lame duck season. My expectations on caliber of FA we're going to sign has never been lower.  

Edited November 8, 2022 by Erstad Grit

[BTH]

4 hours ago, Stradling said:

He said that last year. Trout as a centerfielder should be a year by year discussion. 

He said it yesterday…

In the OC Register yesterday:

“The Angels discussed moving Mike Trout from center field to a corner spot before last season, but Trout dismissed the idea on the first day of spring training. Minasian said it’s a non-issue this winter. “He played a good center field,” Minasian said…”

Edited November 9, 2022 by Trendon

[BTH]

2 hours ago, Blarg said:

Got that list handy? 

 

[Stradling]

42 minutes ago, Trendon said:

He said it yesterday…

In the OC Register yesterday:

“The Angels discussed moving Mike Trout from center field to a corner spot before last season, but Trout dismissed the idea on the first day of spring training. Minasian said it’s a non-issue this winter. “He played a good center field,” Minasian said…”

So he didn’t say it yesterday. Got it. 

[Inside Pitch]

3 hours ago, Erstad Grit said:

Why?

Because I have zero confidence in Walsh and Rendon and I doubt we sign anyone significant in this lame duck season. My expectations on caliber of FA we're going to sign has never been lower.  

Not sure I understand the thought process behind replacing someone you have zero confidence in with someone who has been worse for this entire career but I get wanting to have insurance around.

[BTH]

1 hour ago, Stradling said:

So he didn’t say it yesterday. Got it. 

What?

He did say it yesterday. That’s a quote from Minasian yesterday at the GM Meetings.

[Second Base]

Y'all are forgetting Angels math. It doesn't work like regular math. It's actually had an inverse relationship. The more you spend, the worse the team performs. The better player you sign, the more games you lose.

[greginpsca]

On 11/8/2022 at 1:23 PM, Second Base said:

The Angels aren't improving by 20 wins in the middle of a sale.

2001 to 2002 they improved 25 games. They made minor acquisitions like Fulmer and Appier. And added minimum payroll to the pen. It can be done.

[Erstad Grit]

20 hours ago, Inside Pitch said:

Not sure I understand the thought process behind replacing someone you have zero confidence in with someone who has been worse for this entire career but I get wanting to have insurance around.

Drury would have been our 3rd or 4th best hitter last year. 

[T.G.]

[Inside Pitch]

33 minutes ago, Erstad Grit said:

Drury would have been our 3rd or 4th best hitter last year. 

Tell me about Zach Cozart's 2017 while you're at it.

So, is that the type of hitter you think he is?  Is that what you are expecting from him moving forward?  Do you believe he can be reliably counted on to be a top 3-4 hitter on a MLB team the next few seasons?  Is this a gut feeling or are you basing it on something you believe has changed for him?

Here's what I see.

Career .252/.302/.434
GA Park  - .298.354/.561  (2nd highest run fact in MLB after Coors.  2nd highest HR factor after Coors.  3rd highest Hit factor in MLB)
Post GAP -.238/.290/.435

Career Walk rate 6.0.  Last season 6.7, (31 percentile)
Career K rate 22.0.  Last season 22.2. (42 percentile)  
Career exit velocity 88.2.  Last year 89.1, (51 percentile)   

his LA was up a bit over his career averages but pretty much in line with what it was in 2018 and 19 when he compiled an 66 OPS+.

So again, other than his hot half season in Great America Park what are you keying on?   That wasn't snark before, it was a legitimate question.

[Blarg]

2 hours ago, greginpsca said:

2001 to 2002 they improved 25 games. They made minor acquisitions like Fulmer and Appier. And added minimum payroll to the pen. It can be done.

How did they do when the team was sold in 2003?

[greginpsca]

Just now, Blarg said:

How did they do when the team was sold in 2003?

They shit the bed.

[Blarg]

Meanwhile, 20 years later...

[Blarg]

@greginpsca I'm on board with your optimism simply because I can squint and see parralels between that 2001 and 2022 team where they had a core but needed just the right few additions.

If the off season wasn't hampered by a lame duck ownership they could pull off a few acquisitions that would fill those holes. But I am afraid the calvary (new ownership) isn't going to arrive in time to pay for those players that are needed. 

[Inside Pitch]

40 minutes ago, T.G. said:

I think discussing Drury is a good topic.  He's always had tools and he's a guy that people have always expected more from -- myself included.  But he's just never done it and those numbers in GAP just make for a lot of noise when trying to really evaluate if it's a real step up or a park driven illusion.

He's always had sneaky pop -- I just think his upside is to be what Profar actually is now.

[T.G.]

12 minutes ago, Inside Pitch said:

I think discussing Drury is a good topic.  He's always had tools and he's a guy that people have always expected more from -- myself included.  But he's just never done it and those numbers in GAP just make for a lot of noise when trying to really evaluate if it's a real step up or a park driven illusion.

He's always had sneaky pop -- I just think his upside is to be what Profar actually is now.

I was in the mood for a blood bath... and you disappointed me.

[jsnpritchett]

52 minutes ago, Inside Pitch said:

Tell me about Zach Cozart's 2017 while you're at it.

 

Hmmm...Angels signed ZACK Cozart, then drafted Will Wilson, a middle infielder from a North Carolina college in the middle of the first round, then traded Cozart and Wilson by the end of the year Wilson was drafted.

In 2022, the Angels drafted ZACH Neto, a middle infielder from a North Carolina college in the middle of the first round.  I now DO think they'll sign Drury to a 3-year, $38M deal, then trade him and Neto to the Giants.

[greginpsca]

55 minutes ago, Blarg said:

@greginpsca I'm on board with your optimism simply because I can squint and see parralels between that 2001 and 2022 team where they had a core but needed just the right few additions.

If the off season wasn't hampered by a lame duck ownership they could pull off a few acquisitions that would fill those holes. But I am afraid the calvary (new ownership) isn't going to arrive in time to pay for those players that are needed. 

I am not sure the new ownership will take payroll above current levels.

[Erstad Grit]

1 hour ago, T.G. said:

I was in the mood for a blood bath... and you disappointed me.

Last time ya'l gave me a blood bath was when I was critical of the Quintana signing and ya'l told me how much better he was than Terehan. 

[T.G.]

2 minutes ago, Erstad Grit said:

Last time ya'l gave me a blood bath was when I was critical of the Quintana signing and ya'l told me how much better he was than Terehan. 

I have no memory of that...

And my bloodbath comment was all in fun.

[WicketMaiden]

I'm not so downbeat about next year's payroll. There is no benefit to Arte's asking price by skimping on payroll this year, it's much more likely that a good season for the Angels helps him drive up the price, especially if the Angels begin to look somewhere near relevant again.

I agree that it's unlikely that the Angels will tie up huge money in long term deals that restrict the new ownership's short to medium term payroll flexibility, but I think it makes more business sense to nudge up the payroll by $10m - $20m this season (for one year and two year contract acquisitions), than it does to skimp and save a few million in turnover now, but possibly undermine the multi-billion dollar sale price of the whole franchise with another terrible season. I can imagine Arte is more keen than ever for the Angels to have a good start to the season, it could make him a couple of hundred million extra, so a flurry of short term deals would seem to make sense and look like a good investment.

[Erstad Grit]

1 hour ago, Inside Pitch said:

Tell me about Zach Cozart's 2017 while you're at it.

So, is that the type of hitter you think he is?  Is that what you are expecting from him moving forward?  Do you believe he can be reliably counted on to be a top 3-4 hitter on a MLB team the next few seasons?  Is this a gut feeling or are you basing it on something you believe has changed for him?

Here's what I see.

Career .252/.302/.434
GA Park  - .298.354/.561  (2nd highest run fact in MLB after Coors.  2nd highest HR factor after Coors.  3rd highest Hit factor in MLB)
Post GAP -.238/.290/.435

Career Walk rate 6.0.  Last season 6.7, (31 percentile)
Career K rate 22.0.  Last season 22.2. (42 percentile)  
Career exit velocity 88.2.  Last year 89.1, (51 percentile)   

his LA was up a bit over his career averages but pretty much in line with what it was in 2018 and 19 when he compiled an 66 OPS+.

So again, other than his hot half season in Great America Park what are you keying on?   That wasn't snark before, it was a legitimate question.

I think Drury will be a better player than Walsh next year (albeit it based more about my feeling on Walsh rather than Drury), and Rendon is a huge question mark. With the budget probably not going up a lot Drury is a guy I think would outplay Walsh and be an option at 3B if we need one. Drury hit 14 HR and had a .790 OPS in AWAY games last year. That's nothing to scoff at IMO. 

We need a flexible infielder and I don't want Andrus or Profar. 

 

[Inside Pitch]

32 minutes ago, Erstad Grit said:

Last time ya'l gave me a blood bath was when I was critical of the Quintana signing and ya'l told me how much better he was than Terehan. 

The Jose Quintana that pitched to a 2.93 ERA (2.99 FIP), this year?   Yeah you were wrong about him.  Too bad we had a genius manager undermining his pitching staff.  

[Inside Pitch]

Just now, Erstad Grit said:

I think Drury will be a better player than Walsh next year (albeit it based more about my feeling on Walsh rather than Drury), and Rendon is a huge question mark. With the budget probably not going up a lot Drury is a guy I think would outplay Walsh and be an option at 3B if we need one. Drury hit 14 HR and had a .790 OPS in AWAY games last year. That's nothing to scoff at IMO. 

We need a flexible infielder and I don't want Andrus or Profar. 

So it's just about your feels.  I've been there myself.