June 14 -- And the next 35 games

[Angelsjunky]

That's the date that both Rendon and Ward are estimated to return. Assuming Trout truly is day-to-day, he should be back in the lineup sometime before then, although don't be surprised if he sits out the next four games, pads it with an off-day, and comes back with Rendon and Ward on the 14th.

Meaning, June 14 is when we're going to have our team back. Allegedly. It is also almost exactly one month from when this bad spell started (After May 15, the Angels were 24-13; from May 16 on, 3-18).

June 14 is also the day after the next off-day, and the start of two games vs the Dodgers. After that they play the Mariners, Royals, and Mariners again - so a soft part of the schedule. From June 14 on, the schedule until the ASB is:

2 @ Dodgers, 5 @  Mariners, 3 vs Royals, 3 vs Mariners, 3 vs. White Sox, 3 @ Astros, 3 @ Marlins, 4 @ Orioles, 3 vs Astros, 2 vs. Dodgers.

That's 31 games, 11 vs. two of the best teams in baseball, 20 vs teams currently under .500. Add in the next four games, and that's 15/20.

Barring rain-outs, the Angels will have played 93 games at the ASB, so they can't be at .500 exactly. To be one game above (47-46), they have to go 20-15 during these next 35 games -- not impossible, by any stretch of the imagination. That's 5-10 vs the good teams, 15-5 vs the mediocre to bad teams (or 6-9 and 14-6, etc).

This is where a 5-game swing is huge. If they go 20-15, they'll be at 47-46 and still in the hunt for a wildcard spot, if a bit behind the pack. If they go 15-20, they'll be 42-51, and presumably out of the running for even a wildcard. At that point, Minasian will likely start trading off parts: Syndergaard, Lorenzen, Loup, Tepera, Bradley, Wade, Duffy, etc. 

On the other hand, if the Angels are around .500, we might see one of Adell or Marsh traded to bring in a needed piece - maybe a reliever or middle infielder.

So really, this next five weeks is huge. The Angels need to both hold their own against the good teams and win at least one-third of those games, if not more, and dominate the lesser teams -- or some combination of the two.

p.s. And don't forget about David Fletcher. He's due back after the ASB, and if he returns to form, could be a much-needed spark-plug. Griffin Canning could also be back by then, and he might be a nice solution to the "6th starter problem."

[Dtwncbad]

In terms of players returning to the lineup, I am long past believing David Fletcher is a player to look forward to.

If Fletcher “returns to form” he is a starter on the field that is damn close to replacement level.

We can’t keep pretending he is really the smaller sample version of himself can we?

Edited June 9, 2022 by Dtwncbad

[Angels 1961]

2 hours ago, Angelsjunky said:

That's the date that both Rendon and Ward are estimated to return. Assuming Trout truly is day-to-day, he should be back in the lineup sometime before then, although don't be surprised if he sits out the next four games, pads it with an off-day, and comes back with Rendon and Ward on the 14th.

Meaning, June 14 is when we're going to have our team back. Allegedly. It is also almost exactly one month from when this bad spell started (After May 15, the Angels were 24-13; from May 16 on, 3-18).

June 14 is also the day after the next off-day, and the start of two games vs the Dodgers. After that they play the Mariners, Royals, and Mariners again - so a soft part of the schedule. From June 14 on, the schedule until the ASB is:

2 @ Dodgers, 5 @  Mariners, 3 vs Royals, 3 vs Mariners, 3 vs. White Sox, 3 @ Astros, 3 @ Marlins, 4 @ Orioles, 3 vs Astros, 2 vs. Dodgers.

That's 31 games, 11 vs. two of the best teams in baseball, 20 vs teams currently under .500. Add in the next four games, and that's 15/20.

Barring rain-outs, the Angels will have played 93 games at the ASB, so they can't be at .500 exactly. To be one game above (47-46), they have to go 20-15 during these next 35 games -- not impossible, by any stretch of the imagination. That's 5-10 vs the good teams, 15-5 vs the mediocre to bad teams (or 6-9 and 14-6, etc).

This is where a 5-game swing is huge. If they go 20-15, they'll be at 47-46 and still in the hunt for a wildcard spot, if a bit behind the pack. If they go 15-20, they'll be 42-51, and presumably out of the running for even a wildcard. At that point, Minasian will likely start trading off parts: Syndergaard, Lorenzen, Loup, Tepera, Bradley, Wade, Duffy, etc. 

On the other hand, if the Angels are around .500, we might see one of Adell or Marsh traded to bring in a needed piece - maybe a reliever or middle infielder.

So really, this next five weeks is huge. The Angels need to both hold their own against the good teams and win at least one-third of those games, if not more, and dominate the lesser teams -- or some combination of the two.

p.s. And don't forget about David Fletcher. He's due back after the ASB, and if he returns to form, could be a much-needed spark-plug. Griffin Canning could also be back by then, and he might be a nice solution to the "6th starter problem."

 

2 hours ago, Angelsjunky said:

That's the date that both Rendon and Ward are estimated to return. Assuming Trout truly is day-to-day, he should be back in the lineup sometime before then, although don't be surprised if he sits out the next four games, pads it with an off-day, and comes back with Rendon and Ward on the 14th.

Meaning, June 14 is when we're going to have our team back. Allegedly. It is also almost exactly one month from when this bad spell started (After May 15, the Angels were 24-13; from May 16 on, 3-18).

June 14 is also the day after the next off-day, and the start of two games vs the Dodgers. After that they play the Mariners, Royals, and Mariners again - so a soft part of the schedule. From June 14 on, the schedule until the ASB is:

2 @ Dodgers, 5 @  Mariners, 3 vs Royals, 3 vs Mariners, 3 vs. White Sox, 3 @ Astros, 3 @ Marlins, 4 @ Orioles, 3 vs Astros, 2 vs. Dodgers.

That's 31 games, 11 vs. two of the best teams in baseball, 20 vs teams currently under .500. Add in the next four games, and that's 15/20.

Barring rain-outs, the Angels will have played 93 games at the ASB, so they can't be at .500 exactly. To be one game above (47-46), they have to go 20-15 during these next 35 games -- not impossible, by any stretch of the imagination. That's 5-10 vs the good teams, 15-5 vs the mediocre to bad teams (or 6-9 and 14-6, etc).

This is where a 5-game swing is huge. If they go 20-15, they'll be at 47-46 and still in the hunt for a wildcard spot, if a bit behind the pack. If they go 15-20, they'll be 42-51, and presumably out of the running for even a wildcard. At that point, Minasian will likely start trading off parts: Syndergaard, Lorenzen, Loup, Tepera, Bradley, Wade, Duffy, etc. 

On the other hand, if the Angels are around .500, we might see one of Adell or Marsh traded to bring in a needed piece - maybe a reliever or middle infielder.

So really, this next five weeks is huge. The Angels need to both hold their own against the good teams and win at least one-third of those games, if not more, and dominate the lesser teams -- or some combination of the two.

p.s. And don't forget about David Fletcher. He's due back after the ASB, and if he returns to form, could be a much-needed spark-plug. Griffin Canning could also be back by then, and he might be a nice solution to the "6th starter problem."

 

3 hours ago, Angelsjunky said:

That's the date that both Rendon and Ward are estimated to return. Assuming Trout truly is day-to-day, he should be back in the lineup sometime before then, although don't be surprised if he sits out the next four games, pads it with an off-day, and comes back with Rendon and Ward on the 14th.

Meaning, June 14 is when we're going to have our team back. Allegedly. It is also almost exactly one month from when this bad spell started (After May 15, the Angels were 24-13; from May 16 on, 3-18).

June 14 is also the day after the next off-day, and the start of two games vs the Dodgers. After that they play the Mariners, Royals, and Mariners again - so a soft part of the schedule. From June 14 on, the schedule until the ASB is:

2 @ Dodgers, 5 @  Mariners, 3 vs Royals, 3 vs Mariners, 3 vs. White Sox, 3 @ Astros, 3 @ Marlins, 4 @ Orioles, 3 vs Astros, 2 vs. Dodgers.

That's 31 games, 11 vs. two of the best teams in baseball, 20 vs teams currently under .500. Add in the next four games, and that's 15/20.

Barring rain-outs, the Angels will have played 93 games at the ASB, so they can't be at .500 exactly. To be one game above (47-46), they have to go 20-15 during these next 35 games -- not impossible, by any stretch of the imagination. That's 5-10 vs the good teams, 15-5 vs the mediocre to bad teams (or 6-9 and 14-6, etc).

This is where a 5-game swing is huge. If they go 20-15, they'll be at 47-46 and still in the hunt for a wildcard spot, if a bit behind the pack. If they go 15-20, they'll be 42-51, and presumably out of the running for even a wildcard. At that point, Minasian will likely start trading off parts: Syndergaard, Lorenzen, Loup, Tepera, Bradley, Wade, Duffy, etc. 

On the other hand, if the Angels are around .500, we might see one of Adell or Marsh traded to bring in a needed piece - maybe a reliever or middle infielder.

So really, this next five weeks is huge. The Angels need to both hold their own against the good teams and win at least one-third of those games, if not more, and dominate the lesser teams -- or some combination of the two.

p.s. And don't forget about David Fletcher. He's due back after the ASB, and if he returns to form, could be a much-needed spark-plug. Griffin Canning could also be back by then, and he might be a nice solution to the "6th starter problem."

Angels could be 8 games under before they start those 35 games. I hope you are right but I just think Angels will be sellers at deadline. 

[Angelsjunky]

53 minutes ago, Dtwncbad said:

In terms of players returning to the lineup, I am long past believing David Fletcher is a player to look forward to.

If Fletcher “returns to form” he is a starter on the field that is damn close to replacement level.

We can’t keep pretending he is really the smaller sample version of himself can we?

Smaller sample version?

He played 283 games in 2018-20, 171 in 2021-22. 

I'm not talking about 2020 only - that was a small sample size. But he was un an upswing, and if you take his 2018-20 performance as a whole, you get a league average hitter with good defense at SS and excellent defense at 2B, or a 3+ WAR player. 

 

[Angelsjunky]

2 minutes ago, Angels 1961 said:

 

 

Angels could be 8 games under before they start those 35 games. I hope you are right but I just think Angels will be sellers at deadline. 

Part of my point is that the next 35 games will decide that. I hope they are sellers if they're in a position where they aren't in contention, but if they can crawl back or above .500, I'd prefer that, even if it is an uphill battle to catch the Red Sox/Blue Jays/Rays.

[Angels 1961]

1 minute ago, Angelsjunky said:

Part of my point is that the next 35 games will decide that. I hope they are sellers if they're in a position where they aren't in contention, but if they can crawl back or above .500, I'd prefer that, even if it is an uphill battle to catch the Red Sox/Blue Jays/Rays.

I would also but the hole is getting deeper. Maybe they turn in around and win 10 straight. That is why baseball is so great and why true fans will watch game tonight.

[Dtwncbad]

28 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

Smaller sample version?

He played 283 games in 2018-20, 171 in 2021-22. 

I'm not talking about 2020 only - that was a small sample size. But he was un an upswing, and if you take his 2018-20 performance as a whole, you get a league average hitter with good defense at SS and excellent defense at 2B, or a 3+ WAR player. 

 

He was a 3 WAR player once.  Other than that, he has been basically a 1 WAR player mostly built on playing good defense.

He can’t hit.

Edited June 9, 2022 by Dtwncbad

[Angelsjunky]

12 minutes ago, Dtwncbad said:

He was a 3 WAR player once.  Other than that, he has been basically a 1 WAR player mostly built on playing good defense.

He can’t hit.

No offense, but this is a real skewing of the data. He played in 80 games in 2018, 49 in 2020. From 2018-20 he accrued 5.9 WAR in 283 games, which is an average of 3.4 WAR per 150 games played.

He was a different player in 2021-22, so the real question is which version of Fletcher is he really: the 2018-20 version (283 games, 5.9 WAR) or the replacement guy in 2021-22 (171 games, 0.9 WAR) - or (probably) somewhere in-between.

Even if Fletcher settles in as more of a 2-3 WAR guy, he'll be better than anyone else they have in the middle infield.

 

[Dtwncbad]

1 minute ago, Angelsjunky said:

No offense, but this is a real skewing of the data. He played in 80 games in 2018, 49 in 2020. From 2018-20 he accrued 5.9 WAR in 283 games, which is an average of 3.4 WAR per 150 games played.

He was a different player in 2021-22, so the real question is which version of Fletcher is he really: the 2018-20 version (283 games, 5.9 WAR) or the replacement guy in 2021-22 (171 games, 0.9 WAR) - or (probably) somewhere in-between.

Even if Fletcher settles in as more of a 2-3 WAR guy, he'll be better than anyone else they have in the middle infield.

 

Look it’s fine.  We see things our own way.  I am not optimistic that Fletcher can hit major league pitching.  To me that means at best he is a basically a defensive-only player and someone that the Angels should be trying to upgrade.

I am repeating but I just don’t think the guy can hit.