The Four Biggest Questions to be Answered In-Season

[Angelsjunky]

One of the disconcerting things about the Angels this year is that we start(ed) the year with significant questions - in fact, questions in just about every section of the team. Every team enters the year with question marks, some more impactful than others, and whether due to being a fan, it seems the Angels' questions loom larger than most teams. But whether or not that is true, is beside the point - the questions exist.

In my view, here are the four biggest ones - at least in terms of impact on the season's final win-loss record, and in rough order of potential impact:

1. Can the Big Three Stay Healthy (and Perform)?

This is maybe the biggest question, and the most important to answer in a positive way, with a huge range of potential outcomes. The positive end is if you take the last full season by each of Trout (8.4 in 2019), Ohtani (8.1 in 2021), and Rendon (7.0 in 2019), you get about 23.5 WAR - which, if reproduced in 2022, would almost certainly be the best trio in baseball, and one of the best of the last couple decades. But you can also take each of their worst seasons of the last two years, with Trout (2.3 in 2021), Ohtani (0.0 in 2020), and Rendon (0.7 in 2021) totaling just 3 WAR.

3-23 WAR is a wide range, and chances are they'll end up somewhere in the upper half of that range (13-23). But even that is a large range, and where they end up within it could make the difference between another mediocre season and a playoff berth.

The good news is that there are three of them; even if one goes down or struggles, there are two others to partially pick of the slack. The bad news is that they all have question marks, which essentially boils down to the question: Can they stay healthy and continue (Ohtani) or return to (Trout, Rendon) something close to their peak form? Staying healthy is the operative phrase. 

And just to be clear: they don't have to produce to the high-end of that range. Something like 15-18 WAR total would still be a potent threesome, if a bit below their peak talent level. Anything below about 15 WAR from these three likely means the Angels are in trouble.

2. How Many Starts Can the Angels Get Out of Their Top Six?

Each of the five pitchers to start a game has looked good, or good enough - with only Sandoval still to pitch. It looks like a solid group of starters, all of whom could put up middle-of-the-rotation performance or better. The question, though, is how many innings can the Angels get out of them?

Consider that only Ohtani had the most innings pitched last year with 130.1, and of the others, only Suarez topped 100 (and just barely). On Syndergaard has pitched a full season's worth of starts, and not since 2019.

The first line of depth in AAA includes Janson Junk, Davis Daniel, Jhonathan Diaz, Kenny Rosenberg, Ryan Smith, and Jake Kalish. In AA, Mason Erla and Chase Silseth might move fast and be a consideration sometime in the second half, and there's always Sam Bachman to dream on, and a couple other guys that could play a factor. And of course the Angels can always move Jaime Barria back to the rotation, and Griffin Canning will be back at some point - possibly even Chris Rodriguez. Meaning, unlike previous years, the Angels have some interesting options in the high minors to provide rotation depth, even if no one screams imminent staff ace.

But in terms of quality outings, there is pressure on Ohtani and Syndergaard especially, but also Sandoval, Suarez, Lorenzen, and Detmers. The Angels need most of these guys to not only perform, but stay healthy enough to log innings.

Thankfully the Angels seem to have a strong bullpen this year, so the starters have some back-up. This is just a ball-park guess, but I figure that if the Angels can get 600 IP or more from these six, or an average of about 100 each, they're in good shape (with the caveat being that Ohtani and Syndergaard provide a good portion of those innings).

3. Will Marsh and Adell develop as hoped?

The two long-time stud outfield prospects are still just that: prospects and not yet studs. Yet there are flashes of it, as we saw last night. But the time is now, and the Angels need at least one of them to perform at a league average level. So that's the good news: With Ward returning in a week, they only need one to be solid enough to start. The bad news is that the flashes are still the exception, not the rule, especially for Adell, who went 0-9 with 7 strikeouts in the opening series versus the Astros. It really can't get worse than that. But it is just 9 PA, and his bomb against the Marlins speaks of his power potential. Marsh, on the other hand, has had a strong start, albeit in just a few games played.

These two will have ups and down, but will require patience. The talent is there for both to be very good players, and Ward gives them a nice solid floor level to compete against. 

4. How will the middle infield configure itself?

While I'm listing this fourth, it is also the question with the most dangling threads, so will require greater depth. Right now the Angels are carrying four or five guys who will get starts in the middle infield: David Fletcher, Matt Duffy, Tyler Wade, Jack Mayfield, and possibly Jose Rojas (if we still consider him a 2B). Furthermore, there are four more guys in AAA who could earn a call-up at some point: Andrew Velazquez, Luis Rengifo, Michael Stefanic, and Brendon Davis.

Meaning, if we consider a possible playoff run, and that the Angels are likely to carry only four true middle infielders into the postseason, the regular season will involve a process of whittling eight or nine down to four. How this turns out is anyone's guess, but don't think that the four are necessarily already on the roster. That could be the case, but we've still got 97% of the season to go and a lot can change.

The only thing I feel reasonably confident in saying is that Fletcher and Duffy are the top candidates to make the "Final Four." Of all the players, Duffy has the least volatility: he is what he is, an about league average hitter (career 102 wRC+) with solid, if unspectacular, defense at 2B and 3B, who can play SS in a pinch.

Let's take a more in-depth look at David Fletcher, who is a huge question mark: after positive development in his second and third seasons, he seemed to have established himself as a surprisingly good player, even a borderline star. But that collapsed last year, when after producing a 122 wRC+ in 49 games in 2020, his 70 wRC+ in 2021 was second lowest among all qualifiers. On one hand, you can look to his .287 BABIP - well below his previous career average of .320. But players like Fletcher--pretty much the definition of old school, anti-Three True Outcomes (he doesn't hit for power, take walks, or strikeout)--live and die on their BABIP. Some of that reduction is probably due to luck, just as some of his high BA from 2020 was also due to luck. You can see this by comparing his BA vs. xBA (Expected BA) in 2020 and 21:

• 2020: .319 BA, .292 xBA
• 2021: .262 BA, .271 xBA

Meaning, he "should have" hit .271 last year, and in 2020 he "should have" hit .292 - we can split the difference and say that Fletcher's true talent level is probably that of a .280 hitter, but that he'll fluctuate, year to year. 

Aside from luck, there's also concern about weak contact. His already minute power withered away to nothing last year, as evinced by a .062 ISO (Isolated Power) - by far the lowest among qualifiers (second lowest was .076). His Exit Velocity was down a bit, from three seasons at 83.8 or higher to 82.3 - but that shouldn't be enough to make a huge difference. It may be that his big drop in numbers is mainly due to a combination of two factors: bad luck and opposing teams knowing how to shift against him.

Fletcher is definitely a "Maddon guy" so will be given a long leash, but unless he improves upon that and returns to at least his passable 2018-19 wRC+ of 93 (or 90+), he may end up as a utility player.

Returning to the rest of the infield, Mayfield is a limited player with a bit of pop and mediocre but passable defense, but he's a known quantity - which is probably why he's on the roster over the guys in AAA. As for Wade, while his career PA has only now just passed 500, there is limit to his upside, and he's likely a utility player going forward.

Meanwhile, in AAA, Stefanic's bat may earn him a chance, once an opportunity arises. With Rengifo, there's always the promise of a good player, but he still hasn't been able to translate his minor league success to the majors, and the Angels seem to be growing weary of giving him a chance. Davis is a bit of a wildcard and is probably last on the depth chart, but if he continues hitting like he did last year, will be hard to ignore. And finally Velazquez, who is mostly blocked by Wade, but could be a sleeper for a bench slot.

To sum up, there are a lot of pieces here - none (other than Duffy) who earn a high degree of confidence in solid play at the major league level, but a few who could surprise. The middle infield will be, in my opinion, the second part of the team with the most active revolving door - at least other than the usual bullpen.

Other Questions

There are other questions, of course, but none that are either as pressing and/or uncertain as the above. For instance, how long will Kurt Suzuki remain the back-up catcher? That will be determined by his bat and Matt Thaiss's defense in AAA.

Will Jared Walsh and Max Stassi stabilize at last year's level, or do they have another gear in them? 

And in the bullpen, just as at least half of the middle infield is TBD as far as the overall season goes, we don't know who the cast of supporting characters will end up being behind Raisel Iglesias, Ryan Tepera, Aaron Loup, and Archie Bradley. 

And of course, one final question or set of questions: How will the prospects on the farm develop? Who will emerge as major league depth this year, and who among the younger, higher upside players will have breakouts (if any)? But that goes beyond the scope of this piece.

[tomsred]

Why do I think this will all change in a month?

[Taylor]

31 minutes ago, tomsred said:

Why do I think this will all change in a month?

Is that the fifth biggest question?