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Lance Lynn signs extension (2 years, $38 million)


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Scherzer is still putting up big numbers as he hits age 37 this month, but it’s been lost in the news as none of the other Nats starters has done much in 2021, and thus they are struggling at 42-48 in a meh division.

Agreed that it’s not wise to trade for him, being 6.5 games back of the 2nd WC.

How many years would it be prudent to sign him for, assuming the Nats don’t re-sign him.

Two years with a team option third year?   Or three years and a team option 4th year.

He seems to be Methuselah.

Edited by Angel Oracle
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10 minutes ago, ukyah said:

i know he's making 15 this year, but 2/30 seems too steep for him, by kind of a lot actually. i see him as more of an 8 per year guy, and that's after having a bounce back season.

Yeah, I like Cobb a lot, but I wouldn’t go anywhere near 2/30 for him. 

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8 hours ago, wopphil said:

Yeah, I like Cobb a lot, but I wouldn’t go anywhere near 2/30 for him. 

Somebody will. His agent can build a strong argument that the modern version of Cobb is a 2 to 2.5 WAR player, so with WAR thought to be costing an average of $7m - $9m per WAR on the FA market, negotiating that into low to mid-teens AAV looks about right for him. He's a proven MLB starter who rarely craps the bed, often goes 6 innings and very occasionally pitches like a top of the rotation starter when he's got good defence behind him. Those guys come at a premium. I'd be delighted if the Angels extended Cobb for 2/26 with an option for 3/39 total or something similar because I think someone on the open market gives him more. Guys like Heaney are the next tier down and I'd trust Cobb in a post-season game three start much more than Heaney. 

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26 minutes ago, WicketMaiden said:

Somebody will. His agent can build a strong argument that the modern version of Cobb is a 2 to 2.5 WAR player, so with WAR thought to be costing an average of $7m - $9m per WAR on the FA market, negotiating that into low to mid-teens AAV looks about right for him. He's a proven MLB starter who rarely craps the bed, often goes 6 innings and very occasionally pitches like a top of the rotation starter when he's got good defence behind him. Those guys come at a premium. I'd be delighted if the Angels extended Cobb for 2/26 with an option for 3/39 total or something similar because I think someone on the open market gives him more. Guys like Heaney are the next tier down and I'd trust Cobb in a post-season game three start much more than Heaney. 

You may be correct. If he finishes out the season with this same level of production, he will easily get a 2-3 year deal at $11-14 per year. Or pretty close to 2/30. 

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6 hours ago, Lou said:

If he continues pitching like he is, there's no chance he does.

do you think he'll command 2/30?

i understand the nature of FA drives contracts up, but cobb and lance lynn don't compare statistically. i don't know if 3.5 million per year difference measures the gap between them. i think cobb realistically signs around 9-11 range on a two year deal, maybe some kind of option year trickery sneaking him another million on a buy out.

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Cobb would be a playoff rotation arm for at least several of those teams in the playoff hunt right now in my opinion.  Kudos to Minasian and crew for targeting him as I thought he was going to be an absolute bust.  They have unlocked a totally new gear in him.  His k rate this year is a major outlier for the rest of his career.  Which also gives me a little bit of pause.  I would definitely want to see that continue through the rest of the year before offering him an extension.  And if we're 6 or more out at the deadline, I would absolutely trade him as I think he could be of pretty tremendous value.  

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On 7/17/2021 at 1:31 PM, Dochalo said:

maybe a template for Scherzer to some degree.  The CWS gave up Dunning who probably has similar value to Canning plus another low level pitching prospect.  

but why give up anything to get him when it doesn't matter for this year?  

I’d think Verlander’s 2/$66m is a little closer than what Lynn got. 

Why doesn’t this year matter? They’re not in great shape, but they should be in better position in coming weeks as guys return and with the fat (Pujols, Bundy, Quintana, etc.) trimmed as the year goes on. 

What I like about Scherzer is an extension is getting a “#1” without it costing 7 yrs and $200m plus. He’s not a perfect fit but his contract shouldn’t be too lethal in a worst-case scenario.

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