Early Hot Stove Action! The Angels Outlook, 2021 to 2025

[Angelsjunky]

Alright, we're getting close to Hot Stove time, so I thought I'd piss @ettin off and kick it off early, stealing a bit of his thunder.

Let's look at the next five years, or 2021-25. It could be six, because that is the "Rendon Window," but five has a nicer ring to it. Mike Trout will be age 29-33 and Anthony Rendon age 31-35. Other important factors are that Albert Pujols' contract expires after 2021 when he'll be paid $30M, and Justin Upton's after 2022, when he'll be paid $28M, after being paid $23M in '21. So that's a lot of money off the books. On the other hand, the Angels' two best starters, Dylan Bundy and Andrew Heaney, are only signed through 2021, so after '22 there are (more) rotation concerns. But we'll get to that in a moment. Furthermore, Shohei Ohtani could get really expensive in 2023, although that depends upon how the next few years go. 

Key:

IMPACT PLAYER/STAR (4+ WAR)

Quality Regular/Good Platoon (2-4 WAR)

Role Player/Bench/Scrub (<2 WAR)

Prospect (unknown value)

Numbers in parentheses are the last year of club-control. Note that values can change; I'm going on recent performance and reasonable expectation going forward. Someone like Luis Rengifo should be able to develop into a quality regular, but we haven't seen it yet so I'm veering on the side of caution.

I'm also intentionally using a small number of categories and not, for instance, differentiating between a superstar (Trout) and a borderline star (David Fletcher), because I figure that once you get to about 4 WAR, it is a threshold--significantly above average--that means a player doesn't need to be replaced. In other words, an impact player is very good and doesn't need upgrading; a quality regular is solid, but could be improved upon; a role player is essentially filler that could do with upgrading. I'm only including prospects who I feel have a chance of being at least quality regulars.

PART ONE: THE LINEUP

C - Stassi (2022)

1B - Pujols (2021), Walsh (2025), Thaiss (2025)

2B - Rengifo (2025), Barreto (2024), Jones (2027?)

SS - FLETCHER (2024), Jackson, Paris, Vera

3B - RENDON (2026)

LF - Upton (2022), Marsh (2027), Knowles

CF - TROUT (2030), Adams, Deveaux

RF - Ward (2025), Adell (2026-27)

DH - Ohtani (2023)

The Angels lineup has a really nice core signed for the next 3+ years in Trout, Rendon, Fletcher and Ohtani. Max Stassi, Jared Walsh and Taylor Ward are strong complementary players, Rengifo and Franklin Barreto show some potential, and they also have three good outfield prospects who all should be ready within the next year or two, and several middle infielders who will take more like 3-4 years, with graduation dates lining up well with the free agency of the Angels' current 2B/SS group. Meaning, players like Kyren Paris and Arol Vera--while very intriguing prospects--are both unknown and don't really factor much into this five-year plan, both being 18-years old. Similarly with outfielders Alexander Ramirez (also 18) and David Calabrese (almost 18).

Strengths: CF, 3B, SS. They're all locked up for the next four or more years, and should be solid. The only possible changes might be positional, if Trout moves to LF or Fletcher back to 2B, if one of the Angels' shortstop prospects matures more quickly than expected.

Weaknesses: 2B, 1B, RF, C. None of these are terrible weaknesses, with players who could make an impact in 2021 and beyond, but all could be improved in a variety of ways. For instance, Stassi seems to be breaking out as a quality regular, but the Angels have no catching depth and could use both a strong back-up or platoon, and prospect depth. At 1B, Walsh has been a revelation, but is still a question mark as far as a full season goes - but I'm optimistic. Thaiss has strangely become the odd-man out among the trio of him, Ward and Walsh, but still should become a serviceable major leaguer, just without a clear path to playing time. At 2B, Rengifo and Barreto both have talent, but neither has shown much at the major league level yet. Long-term there's a ton of depth, with any of the three SS prospects being possible major league second basemen, and Jahmai Jones being a bit of a dark-horse to start earning time as soon as next year. 

RF is only a weakness in the short term, and Ward is showing signs of life with the bat and could be a viable transitional player until Brandon Marsh and/or Jo Adell are ready.

I'm calling LF and DH neither strengths or weaknesses. Upton is still adequate, but streakily diminished from his prime, but has Marsh waiting in the wings, not to mention Adams (probably by 2022-23), Knowles and Deveaux (~2024). Ohtani seemed to have lost his bat this year and not a full-time DH, although the Angels are developing enough offensive depth that DH should be fine.

2021-25 Outlook: Very good, and eventually excellent. As long as Trout and Rendon don't decline early, the Angels already have a strong supporting cast in the lineup, with a bunch of prospects who could become impact players, even a star or two. The Angels are in the enviable position where they may not need to bring in any outside players into the lineup for the next half decade or more, aside from a bench player or two, and possibly a catcher.

Up next, Part 2: the Pitching Staff.

[Warfarin]

Very solid work.  I like the core we have in place, but I will say that we really need to hope we can get Ohtani back on track.  2018-2019 Ohtani added to the offense does make it very legit with lots of team control.

As you said, we likely don't need any significant offensive pieces moving forward.  We could see some minor moves for complementary offensive pieces, but for the most part, I think we'll keep the core we have in place.

[Lazorko Saves]

On 9/24/2020 at 5:52 PM, Angelsjunky said:

Up next, Part 2: the Pitching Staff.

You're like Paul Harvey, telling the story backwards.

[mmc]

[Angelsjunky]

PART TWO: THE ROTATION

Key:

ELITE STARTER (#1-2, <3.50 ERA, 4+ WAR)

#Mid-rotation starter (#3-4, 3.50-4.50ish ERA, 2-4 WAR)

Back-end Rotation/Filler Starter (#5-6/swingman, 4.50+ ERA,<2 WAR)

Prospect (unknown value)

 

ROTATION

Dylan Bundy (2021)

Andrew Heaney (2021)

Griffin Canning (2025) 

Jaime Barria (2024)

Shohei Ohtani (2023)

Patrick Sandoval (2025)

Jose Suarez (2025)

 

Prospects (2021 Age, highest level, FV, ETA) - projection

Reid Detmers (21, NCAA, 45+, 2021) - good mid-rotation starter

Chris Rodriguez (22, A+, 40+, 2021) - borderline elite starter or elite reliever

Oliver Ortega (24, 35+, 2021) - borderline mid-rotation starter, more likely good reliever

Aaron Hernandez (24, A+, 40, 2021) - back-end starter or middle reliever

Packy McNaughton (25, AA, 40, 2021) - back-end starter or middle reliever

Robinson Pina (22, A, 35+, 2022) - back-end starter or middle reliever

Jose Soriano (22, A, 40+, 2022) - borderline mid-rotation starter or very good reliever

Hector Yan (22, A, 40+, 2022) - borderline mid-rotation starter or very good reliever

Garret Stallings (23, NCAA, 40, 2022) - back-end starter or middle reliever

Jack Kochanowicz (20, R, 40, 2023+) - too soon to say

Sadrac Franco (21, R, 40, 2023+) - too soon to say

William Holmes (20, R, 40+, 2023+) - too soon to say

 

Perhaps the most notable quality of the Angels' SP depth chart going into 2021 is the lack of a top-end starter. Ohtani has the talent, but could be anything from a #1 to not pitching at all, so I split the difference. Bundy and Heaney are solid mid-rotation starters, but are only signed through 2021. I know some consider Bundy a breakout #2, but consider that after his hot start he came back down to earth. I'd expect a solid #3 next year. Canning and Sandoval both should be solid mid-rotation guys, with Canning having the upside of a borderline #2. Some have suggested that Sandoval belongs in the bullpen, and he could end up as a swingman, especially if the Angels acquire a couple starters in the offseason, but he isn't far behind Canning. Barria may be a bit underrated, but I think the best outlook for him is as a solid #4, with and ERA hovering around 4.00 in the years to come. Finally, Jose Suarez. He's been awful, obviously, but shouldn't be written off - but is likely to start 2021 in AAA again, and possibly end up as a reliever.

As far as the prospects are concerned, most of those FVs should be taken with a grain of salt, because of the lack of play experience of many of the Angels pitching prospects. Don't be surprised if some of those guys jump in the prospect standings as they log some innings in the minors next year.

Strengths: Mid-rotation depth. If the Angels do acquire a couple more mid-rotation types, they'll have excellent depth. Also, they've got some solid pitching prospects who should start arriving in the next year or two.

Weaknesses: Lack of elite talent. There are one or two prospects who could be very good--notably Detmers, Rodriguez and Kochanowicz--but they haven't had that #1-2 since Jered Weaver's prime, almost a decade ago.

2021-2025 Outlook: The Angels actually have the makings of a decent rotation in 2021, even without adding anyone. Bundy, Heaney, Canning and Barria have all put in solid performances this year, Sandoval should jump back and join them in the #3-4 fold, and there's always the potential of Ohtani. But it is risky, and they will almost certainly sign at least one mid-rotation starter (e.g. Stroman, Gausman, Odorizzi, Ray), and a second depth piece, whether another mid-rotation type, or hoping to strike gold (or at least silver) again with a Bundy type trade, and possible some clean peanuts to flesh out the higher minors. I know, we all want Trevor Bauer, but it is rather unlikely considering the cost ($35M+ AAV).

After 2021, Bundy and Heaney will leave a big void. Whether or not the Angels offer them contracts remains to be seen, although given his younger age, Bundy (28 in 2021) seems more likely than Heaney (30 next year). But a lot depends on their performance, and where they are come July, as both could be useful trade chips, and how the prospects mature. It is also possible that the Angels go cheap for 2021 and save the money they would have spent on a mid-rotation starter on extending Bundy.

That said, help is on its way, with Reid Detmers likely to be ready for the bigs by late 2021. From what I've read, he's the type of pitcher that should mature into solid form relatively quickly, and has #3 or better upside. Aaron Hernandez and Packy McNaughton could both provide rotation depth in 2021, but neither has more than back-end upside. Oliver Ortega is also an interesting pitcher, with excellent stuff but poor control. He is likely to end up in the bullpen.

For me the most intriguing prospect is Chris Rodriguez, who has a four-pitch repertoire, including a four-seamer that reaches the high 90s. He's missed most of the last two years with injuries, so there is significant concern about his durability, but he looked like an elite talent in his three starts in A+ last year, and he's got the talent to rise very quickly and make an appearance late in the year.

The rest of the younger prospects show varying degrees of talent, but are years away. Stallings should rise fast, but with limited upside. Soriano is a bit of a dark-horse as he was rising relatively quickly, but needed Tommy John Surgery, so probably won't factor in the major league club until 2022 at the earliest. Yan is similar or half a step behind Soriano. It is too early to tell with Kochanowicz, Franco, and Holmes.

The bottom line: The Angels could really do with an elite arm. That could come from within, either a healthy Ohtani, one of Canning or Detmers reaching their fullest potential (a #2), or possibly Chris Rodriguez. But that may not be the case. What is the case is that they've got a solid group of mid-rotation starters, and some solid to good prospects. Barring a surprise Bauer signing or a difficult to predict trade, they'll likely continue strengthening the mid-rotation depth, and hope that one of the above mentioned pitchers turns into that elusive ace. Given the strength of the lineup over the next half decade, they don't have to have a #1 starter, but they do need a solid range of #2s-4s. The makings are there, especially with an acquisition or two in the offseason.

 

 

Edited September 26, 2020 by Angelsjunky