It is Time for Mike Trout to be Less Patient (Fangraphs)

[Angelsjunky]

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/it-is-time-for-mike-trout-to-be-less-patient/

The Rendon Effect may actually be hurting Trout, at least in the short-term. The question remains whether he'll adjust to more strikes in the zone. It is somewhat baffling that his numbers would suffer from more strikes, but there it is.

[Angel]

Solution? flip em

[totdprods]

Could it be that Mike, who has been a little balky about playing this year and is a new father, is realizing its a lost season and is just swatting more dingers?

That’s an oversimplification, but it ties in to a theory I have had that I’ve used before about great players, specifically Weaver and Pujols. The theory is that some of the very best baseball players in the world, the ones who are the most talented, experienced, aware, and established, can alter and adjust their in-game strategies and efforts in ways that go against or don’t show up in statistical analysis. 

Essentially, Trout just might not be that worried about drawing walks in a shortened season that may not even play out a full 60, one where his team is the worst in the league and his thoughts are more towards home, and he’s just trying to pad his HR stats, for lack of a better choice of words. That doesn’t mean he’s always going to be this way, or that he’s selfish. He’s just aware enough and skilled enough that he can turn parts of his game and approach on and off in subtle ways, maybe even subconsciously, and remain effective far beyond what a typical MLBer can do. 

These are more extreme (and concerning) cases, but I liken it to when Weaver started losing velocity and his ERA/HR allowed started ballooning. He was aware enough of his diminishing skill that he would sacrifice his HR9 rate, almost pitching to a plan where he willfully allowed occasional solo HRs, as part of a bigger plan to pitch-to-contact, generate weak contact by keeping hitters guessing and working corners, and going into each start with a mentality of walk few, strike out few, limit base runners because you’re going to give up 2-3 HR every start, but get through 5-6 innings allowing 3-4 runs and we’ll be okay. That same approach meant he was going to get absolutely smoked 20% of the time, and also probably lose it and give up 3-4 HR and give up 5-6 a couple times. This would mean a shitty ERA and 30+ HR allowed. But 60% of the time, he’d pitch just well enough to keep them in the game. The bullpen and offense would have to hold the game or lead, and that was out of his hands. That’s what the quality start stat attempts to show, and despite his awful numbers, Weaver still managed to pull off a went QS% his entire career.

Similarly, I think Pujols realized he couldn’t hit the other way and he clogged the basepaths, so instead of focusing on walks and singles, turned into an all-or-nothing hitter when he was up with the bases empty or two outs. It wouldn’t result in pretty stats, but he realized that was his best approach to get a run on the board, which he recognized as his job, flawed as that may be. When hitters were on base, especially RISP situations, he changed completely. He put more effort into working the count, drawing walks, making contact, going the other way, because he was able to recognize a single, walk, groundout became his likeliest way of producing a run. His splits sort of back this up.

Edited August 27, 2020 by totdprods

[Angel]

Why force Trout to change his approach?  Rendon is more of a pure hitter, Trout is a selective hitter, bat Rendon BEFORE Trout.

[Stradling]

No one is forcing Trout to change.  

[Angel]

35 minutes ago, Stradling said:

No one is forcing Trout to change.  

So why not flip them?  Trout seems to be better without the best possible lineup protection, OBP is a major part of his game.

[Stradling]

Just now, Angel said:

So why not flip them?  Trout seems to be better without the best possible lineup protection.

I have no problem flipping them

[Angel]

Good.

Fletcher Rendon Trout etc

Ohtani can be a great cleanup hitter imo, lefty bat needed slots in perfectly too

[Angelsjunky]

I see two paths going forward for Trout:

1) He adjusts as he always has, and returns to his usual 170+ wRC+, 9+ WAR performance and being the best player in the world.

2) He turns into a .270/40 HR hitter, still good but not great, 140+ wRC, 6 WAR, and no longer the best player in the world.

In the past, I've always assumed that he'd adjust, but given his rise in launch angle--as pointed out by Tony Blengino last year, and even higher this year--I'm not so certain. Still, he deserves the benefit of the doubt, but I'm more concerned than in previous slumps.

[Sully151]

Flip them. Imagine all the good pitches in the zone Rendon would see with Fletcher in front of him and Trout behind. 

[Angelsjunky]

21 hours ago, Randy Gradishar said:

Yep, I was hoping Trout was the exception to the launch angle rule, and that it just meant he had perfected his craft of hitting fly balls as opposed to compensating like other players.

And Fangraphs was putting out articles last year about how he was still improving in basically every way, so I was hoping that all those other stats would outweigh the one warning sign.

But he's 29, and I think the new peak in baseball is about 27 and still declining. The human body starts deteriorating at 23, both mentally and physically.

And since he's always been so good mentally, he's probably not getting any better from experience. So it's just pure declining physical skills at this point. 

So I don't think we ever see 2018-2019 level again. I just hope he has more Nelson Cruz in his blood than Pujols.

 

27 has been the average peak for quite awhile; if anything, it may be starting to skew younger. But the vast majority of players peak sometime between 25-30ish, and the usual age that noticeable decline starts occurring is 32-33ish.

As far as Trout's aging is concerned, I've always thought in terms of Mantle and Mays. Mantle's very best years were at 24-25 but he remained an elite player through his age 32 season, but then retired at age 36. Mays, on the other hand, reached peak level around age 23 but had his very best span of years in his early 30s, age 31-34 or so, and remained very good through age 40. On one hand, Trout is a more similar player to Mantle, on the other he doesn't booze it up so should age better. 

I think the odds are for him figuring out how to adjust - he always has, and has remarkable hitting acumen. Meaning, I don't see him accepting turning into a .270/40HR guy - he takes great pride in his play and do what he needs to do to continue being an elite player for years to come. While Tony Blengino knows a helluva lot more than I do about baseball, I don't imagine that excessive launch angle is something that cannot be adjusted. As long as the physical skills are still there, and the drive.

I do disagree slightly with your take on human physical deterioration. I have seen studies that show our manual dexterity and hand-eye coordination actually peaks around 40, and of course we hopefully grow wiser. So while certain cognitive skills -- and obviously overall physicality--declines from our mid-20s on -- we continue to develop in other ways to offset it. If we look at tennis, for instance, Novak Djokovic (33) and Rafael Nadal (34) are still the two best players in the sport at ages when Pete Sampras was long-retired and most elite players are no longer elite. Roger Federer is still playing very well and just turned 39 (although is injured). As a Federer fan, while he's not the same player he was in his 20s, he can still bring a high level of play and beat anyone on a good day - just not as consistently as he once did.

[Jeff Fletcher]

On 8/27/2020 at 7:28 AM, Angelsjunky said:

The Rendon Effect may actually be hurting Trout, at least in the short-term. The question remains whether he'll adjust to more strikes in the zone. It is somewhat baffling that his numbers would suffer from more strikes, but there it is.

My theory is that it's a coincidence. Every year Trout has a similar slump.

 

 

[JustATroutFan]

Trout's slash line looks mediocre, by his lofty standards, because he didn't play in May or June this season, easily two of his hottest months with the bat in his career. And, he rarely had that many plate appearances in July, another really hot month with the bat in his career. If he had played in May and June and played the whole month of July, he would have his usual monster season at the plate. Stats are freaking overrated or misleading this season, anyways.