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Kole Calhoun 2.0 and 2020


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Kole’s last 162 games show some impressive consistency given how inconsistent he seems at times.

  • .237/.328/.460/.788, 14 2B, 1 3B, 15 HR, 41 RBI, 38 BB, 82 K (last 73 games, 2018)
  • .238/.323/.485/.807, 16 2B, 1 3B, 21 HR, 49 RBI, 39 BB, 86 K (89 games, 2019)

All told, Kole’s last 162 games come out to 30 doubles, 1 triple, 36 homers, 90 RBI, 77 BB, 168 K, and a .238/.326/.473/.799 slash. 

He had an OPS of .476 last year on the date these 162 games started - and .799 since.

The deadline would be a great time to cash in on Kole, but should the Angels hold onto him, I’m not entirely sure his option should be declined - he looks to be a safe .235/.325/.475/.800 guy with 30 doubles, 30 HR, 75 BB, GG defense at this point - at least for another season or two. I’m not sure the Angels will get enough value back in a trade unless an acquiring team is banking on keeping him for 2020 as well. 

I could also see the Angels picking up his option and then still dealing him afterwards too.

If they weren’t in the same division fighting for the same spot, I’d argue something like a Kole Calhoun for Lance Lynn deal could’ve made some sense, but I’m struggling to find many matches. Cleveland?

Overall though, I don’t think the Angels are going to sell Kole unless they totally bottom out before 7/31. And I am inclined to think they might keep him for 2020 as well, unless they absolutely need every penny possible going after FA pitching - which is possible. Clearing Harvey, Cahill, Allen, and likely JC Ramirez and Nick Tropeano clears up $30m right there for perhaps Gerrit Cole or two mid-tier FA SP arms. Keeping La Stella helps stabilize the offense too. And I would still think Adell eventually reaches Anaheim in 2020. He might be MLB ready, and cheap, and potentially dynamic, but given he doesn’t need to be added to the 40-man yet, it may be best to pencil him in for AAA CF and serve as our insurance if Upton, Trout, Calhoun, Ohtani, or Pujols get hurt, rather than elevating Adell and everyone below him up - unless they need Kole’s money or find a good return. 

Edited by totdprods
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1 hour ago, totdprods said:

Kole’s last 162 games show some impressive consistency given how inconsistent he seems at times.

  • .237/.328/.460/.788, 14 2B, 1 3B, 15 HR, 41 RBI, 38 BB, 82 K (last 73 games, 2018)
  • .238/.323/.485/.807, 16 2B, 1 3B, 21 HR, 49 RBI, 39 BB, 86 K (89 games, 2019)

All told, Kole’s last 162 games come out to 30 doubles, 1 triple, 36 homers, 90 RBI, 77 BB, 168 K, and a .238/.326/.473/.799 slash. 

He had an OPS of .476 last year on the date these 162 games started - and .799 since.

The deadline would be a great time to cash in on Kole, but should the Angels hold onto him, I’m not entirely sure his option should be declined - he looks to be a safe .235/.325/.475/.800 guy with 30 doubles, 30 HR, 75 BB, GG defense at this point - at least for another season or two. I’m not sure the Angels will get enough value back in a trade unless an acquiring team is banking on keeping him for 2020 as well. 

I could also see the Angels picking up his option and then still dealing him afterwards too.

If they weren’t in the same division fighting for the same spot, I’d argue something like a Kole Calhoun for Lance Lynn deal could’ve made some sense, but I’m struggling to find many matches. Cleveland?

Overall though, I don’t think the Angels are going to sell Kole unless they totally bottom out before 7/31. And I am inclined to think they might keep him for 2020 as well, unless they absolutely need every penny possible going after FA pitching - which is possible. Clearing Harvey, Cahill, Allen, and likely JC Ramirez and Nick Tropeano clears up $30m right there for perhaps Gerrit Cole or two mid-tier FA SP arms. Keeping La Stella helps stabilize the offense too. And I would still think Adell eventually reaches Anaheim in 2020. He might be MLB ready, and cheap, and potentially dynamic, but given he doesn’t need to be added to the 40-man yet, it may be best to pencil him in for AAA CF and serve as our insurance if Upton, Trout, Calhoun, Ohtani, or Pujols get hurt, rather than elevating Adell and everyone below him up - unless they need Kole’s money or find a good return. 

Don't have much to add, but I could see Calhoun sticking around the rest of this year and next.  His presence would give Adell time to continue to develop.

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It all comes down to whether or not they feel Adell is ready for next year (he likely is) and whether or not they feel we are in it this year.
I dont see them trading him now if they are adding for a run, but he is likely our best chip to trade should we decide to do so. 

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If the Angels are fully commited to and believe that Adell is the future and is ready to make the transition to the majors, then trading Calhoun would be the best for the franchise. I really have no dilusions that the Angels will seriously contend for the 2nd wildcard, the pitching is just too thin to progress forward against better competition than the Mariners. So gathering some future value out of Calhoun would be the best move the team can make.

But, he is not going to reap a haul of prospects and certainly not an A list player. His team option is not inexpensive and there is only one year of it. That makes him a rental for most GM's looking to put a defense first player out there that has the potential to be an offensive threat but late in the lineup. As you said, the matchups are limited.

I don't see the Angels out bidding the competition for Cole, the Yankees are retiring Sabathia and will go hard at signing the premiere free agent pitcher. So stockpiling unspent money isn't going to be an issue. SoPlan B is keep him to develop Adell through the end of the minors and do the bullshit 3 weeks in AAA to stall the clock then trade Calhoun, eating some salary to buy in on better propects looks like a viable route.

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I don't doubt that Adell is (or will soon be) ready...it's more that I don't see that there's a clear reason that they need to trade or decline Calhoun's option. Our offense has been damn good this year, and for the most, will be the same cast of characters next year. If it ain't broke, why fix it? I could see them retaining Calhoun and La Stella as RF and 3B for 2020, and playing it safe with Adell. Kole is looking like he's settled into a .800 OPS, 30 HR, GG groove, and as good as Adell might be, that's still a pretty lofty standard to step in and replace - unless the Angels absolutely need that $14m opened up.

Basically, I don't think the Angels need to clear up Kole's $14m '20 salary or get back whatever marginal prospect return he'd bring back just for the sake of opening playing time for Adell, at least to start 2020.
Nor do I think the Angels give a flip about manipulating service time. This could change if the Angels tank before July 31, or if Kole tanks before the end of '19, or if Adell just continues to do some insane .385/.450/.650/1.100 stuff for the rest of the year. Any/all of those are possible, but not certain.

As much as we'd like the Angels to contend in 2020, I think it's fair to say even if they add Gerrit Cole to Ohtani, Heaney, Canning, Suarez, and Pena/Barria, etc., they are still not guaranteed anything, and they could easily sell off pending FA Calhoun and La Stella next July, sliding in Adell, Ward, Thaiss, whomever.

I guess I don't think the Angels really need to do too much to change next year's team. We're getting $30m back from not having Cahill, Harvey, and Allen around, and that should be close enough to Cole's top price, or one or two lesser arms. And it would be nice having Adell ready to step in should 2020 Upton, Trout, Calhoun, Ohtani, or Pujols go down with injury (any of which would open up OF/DH at-bats) instead of having to default to Goodwin/SLC 4-A guys/Hermosillo, maybe Marsh. Not that those guys are bad options, but Adell would be much better.

I'm trying to not get too laser-beamed in on 2020, or Gerrit Cole, or this offseason alone - even if we keep Calhoun, we'll free up the salary of him, Cozart, La Stella, possibly Simmons, at the end of 2020 and replace internally, and there's a potentially good pitching class set to hit next offseason too - Bauer, Erlin, Paxton, Stroman, Ray, Minor, Richards. 

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1 hour ago, Blarg said:

LaStella's situation isn't the same as Calhoun's, he still has arbitration team control for 2020. He provides infield depth that would be lacking if he was let go, there are no guys in the minors right now to replace his contributions both in versitility and offense.  

Right - but he's still set to hit free agency at the end of 2020. 

Given that we have ~$30m to play with this offseason even if we keep Calhoun and La Stella, it would not surprise me if we kept both for 2020 to keep the offense in tact since it has performed so well. I don't think either are bringing back much in prospect return, be it July or December, and either could be traded just as easily next July (and probably for a similar return) if the Angels are in position to do so, such as Adell or Thaiss or another prospect being so hot they have to find playing time for them.

And if they do hold onto both for all of 2020, we'll still see them hit FA at the end of the year (along with Cozart and potentially Simmons) which frees up a ton of 1) money for the '20-'21 FA class, which has good pitching, and 2) playing time for Ward, Thaiss, Rengifo, Rojas, Jones, etc., who have hopefully gotten past any early MLB hiccups by that point. 

Just saying I don't think it's a foregone conclusion that Adell will be the starting RF next year, because I don't see a real need to cut ties with Kole...yet. He's clearly found a new level of consistency and there isn't a compelling reason to cut ties with him the way things stand now, despite how good Adell has been this year.

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9 minutes ago, Jeff Fletcher said:

Bear in mind the Angels have 13 games between now and the deadline against the Mariners, Tigers and Orioles. And the Astros have no starter for the first two of this series. 

All of which is a way of saying I don’t think they’ll be in a position to give up between now and July 31, and that’s the only circumstance in which they’d trade Calhoun. 

Also, Calhoun is a pretty important piece of that clubhouse. I think you’d have to be really really really sure that you’re out of it and you’re getting a major piece back in order to be worth the clubhouse impact of trading him, under the current atmosphere. 

This is a vastly underrated thing to consider, in lieu of Tyler's passing.   

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14 minutes ago, totdprods said:

Right - but he's still set to hit free agency at the end of 2020. 

So, that really doesn't change what I posted. He is under team control and inexpensive considering he is a starter in the infield. The Angels do not have options for infielders in the minors so La Stella is almost assured a job next season as a full time player and could be a candidate for a contract extension. La Stella's current injury disqualifies him for any trade talks, he would be a huge sell low.

In Calhoun's case he will be replaced by Adell that is a cheaper solution with a much higher upside. The only question is when. 

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17 minutes ago, Blarg said:

So, that really doesn't change what I posted. He is under team control and inexpensive considering he is a starter in the infield. The Angels do not have options for infielders in the minors so La Stella is almost assured a job next season as a full time player and could be a candidate for a contract extension. La Stella's current injury disqualifies him for any trade talks, he would be a huge sell low.

In Calhoun's case he will be replaced by Adell that is a cheaper solution with a much higher upside. The only question is when. 

Nor was I disagreeing with you. I only mentioned La Stella in the same breath as Calhoun because I keep seeing a ton of posts about trading Calhoun now and La Stella in the winter because we'd get prospects and free up money for pitching, and my point is I don't expect either to garner much of a trade return, nor do we necessarily need Kole's money freed up for this winter (yet) because we'll clear up $30m alone casting aside the awful pitching trio. And should $30m not get us the pitching we need this offseason, we will be freeing up a lot more money next offseason when La Stella, Calhoun, Cozart, and Simmons come off the books - and there's a good pitching crop set to hit FA then too. 

So, I really don't expect La Stella to go anywhere, and I'm starting to think Kole will stick around too - what @Jeff Fletcher mentioned is another huge reason why I'm starting to expect Kole will still be here next year. 

My two cents, keep the offense intact next year (maybe a minor change or two in Bour's spot, the catching tandem, maybe 4th OF, or an opportunistic bench IF buy like Kendrick) and retain Kole, with Adell starting the year in SLC serving as insurance if a bg bat goes down.
Use that $30m from Harvey, Cahill, and Allen on pitching this winter - either one Gerrit Cole, or maybe split the money between whichever two you can get from Ryu, Bumgarner, Wheeler, Roark, Hill, Hamels, Gio, Wacha, Wheeler, Pineda, Miley, Odorizzi, Gibson, Perez....lots of SPs. 
If Adell is playing out of his goddamn mind next July and no playing time has opened up, you can still deal Kole at the deadline and probably get a similar prospect to what we'd get now.

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Another option (if the Angels decide to retain Calhoun), would be to release Bour, and let Calhoun split time with Pojuls at 1st base. He could also fill-in for Adell in RF a day or so each week if needed. And if he reverts back to the 'old Calhoun', you can always think about discarding him at next years trade deadline.

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You do need a core with stability and continuity. Even in these days of players coming and going every year or two. 

Calhoun fits integrally in this core on and off the field. Since he seems to have stabilized his hitting within a predictable range, he is a known quantity on offense. And a better than average presence on defense and in the clubhouse.

I'd gamble on keeping him through next year, and depending on club performance and prospect progress, make a longer term decision around the trade deadline next year.

The team is in a fragile emotional state now and need solidarity to regain a collective competitive attitude. The franchise won't be dramatically improved by what he brings in return and his value now may have longer term intangible benefits.

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1 hour ago, Duren, Duren said:

You do need a core with stability and continuity. Even in these days of players coming and going every year or two. 

Yup - and as good as Adell’s numbers have been and as he can be, what’s to say he doesn’t go through challenges at first? Trout, Upton, Vlad Jr., Moncada...all had some growing pains initially. Is 50 games of sub-.700 OPS gonna help us compete in 2020? Is losing Calhoun’s .800 OPS (and better defense) worth the $14m in savings?

Surely Adell will be better than that someday but he might not be right away. I don’t know that he gets the chance to play out that time this year, and I’m not sure the Angels should chance it to start ‘20. Also, what if he winds up actually not being the talent we hope?

Just having a harder time imagining the Angels will feel like they need to save that money. The $30m freed up should be enough. 

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If Pujols is ready to accept very limited time at 1B (at most once a week) and DH (when Ohtani isn't DHing), then Calhoun could stay in 2020 until Marsh is ready.

April 2020 through sometime in July 2020:  Adell/Trout/Calhoun, with Upton at 1B

After that: Adell/Trout/Marsh, with Upton at 1B and Calhoun traded      

One downer to keeping Calhoun in 2020 is possibly not being able to sign Gerrit Cole, if Arte is determined to not go over budget for even just a year or two until Pujols comes off of active players payroll.

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42 minutes ago, Angel Oracle said:

If Pujols is ready to accept very limited time at 1B (at most once a week) and DH (when Ohtani isn't DHing), then Calhoun could stay in 2020 until Marsh is ready.

April 2020 through sometime in July 2020:  Adell/Trout/Calhoun, with Upton at 1B

After that: Adell/Trout/Marsh, with Upton at 1B and Calhoun traded      

One downer to keeping Calhoun in 2020 is possibly not being able to sign Gerrit Cole, if Arte is determined to not go over budget for even just a year or two until Pujols comes off of active players payroll.

Not necessarily. I understand we'll have some raises and such, but...this is where the beauty of having a farm comes in.

If the Angels retain cut Harvey ($11m), Cahill ($9m), Allen ($8.5m), Tropeano ($1.1m), J.C. Ramirez ($1.9m), Luis Garcia ($1.7m), and Justin Bour ($2.5m) is $35.7m saved right there. 
They should be able to replace them with Suarez, Sandoval, Barria, Canning, Madero, waiver claim relievers, and Matt Thaiss/Jared Walsh for league minimum. 
They could retain Lucroy/Smith or go super cheap on catcher again - I'm fine with Eppler staying cheap here. The offense otherwise is good, and he's good at finding decent catchers for cheap.

If Gerrit Cole is going to cost more than $35.7m a year, I'm definitely not interested. I'd go as high as $30m AAV or so. And that should be good if he wants to play for his favorite team growing up. 
The question is, is adding Gerrit Cole enough? We also get Ohtani back. But, if it's not enough to woo him or sign him, then the Angels still have $30m to drop between Bumgarner, Ryu, Wheeler, Odorizzi, Porcello, Perez, Pineda, Wood, Wacha, Roark, Nova, Miley, Gio, etc. to boost pitching. I think the bullpen, catcher, and bench can be filled from within still...and it's another reason why keeping Calhoun's .800 OPS for another year isn't a bad idea. Helps stabilize the offense. Retain La Stella too. 

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Kole is about as average as average can be. He's on pace for about 3 fWAR. The median fWAR for all position players with 600+ PA over the last ten years is 3.3; for qualifiers it is 2.7. Meaning, he's exactly that: an average regular.

Is that worth $14M? Yes and no. No in that the Angels have one of the top prospects in baseball on the cusp of readiness, who will play next season for 1/28th of what Kole would be paid. Yes, in that 3 fWAR is worth $14M on today's market, and of course the human aspects of his presence in the clubhouse.

As for whether they should exercise his option next year, I'm mixed. On one hand he's a fan and player favorite and a solid performer. On the other, RF is clearly Adell's in the near future, so if he isn't gone this year it will be next...why delay the inevitable?

Another option would be to exercise the option and then still dangle him on the market, see if anyone wants to offer a good prospect or two for Kole at 1/$14M...there's some value to that. If no one bites, as others have said Adell can still start most of the time, with Kole essentially being the 4th outfielder and platooning with Pujols at 1B. Of course that pushes Ward and Walsh  out of a job, but they can be used in trades. So you could get something like this:

Games Started

RF: Adell 130, Calhoun 30

LF: Upton 140, Adell 10, Calhoun 10 

1B: Pujols 60, Calhoun 100

DH: Ohtani 110, Pujols 40, others 10

Games started:

Adell 140

Upton 140

Calhoun 140

Ohtani 110

Pujols 100

 

Or something like that. The point being, you can easily find a place for him and Adell both being close to full-time. Adell can even back-up Trout in CF.

 

 

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7 hours ago, totdprods said:

Kole’s last 162 games show some impressive consistency given how inconsistent he seems at times.

  • .237/.328/.460/.788, 14 2B, 1 3B, 15 HR, 41 RBI, 38 BB, 82 K (last 73 games, 2018)
  • .238/.323/.485/.807, 16 2B, 1 3B, 21 HR, 49 RBI, 39 BB, 86 K (89 games, 2019)

All told, Kole’s last 162 games come out to 30 doubles, 1 triple, 36 homers, 90 RBI, 77 BB, 168 K, and a .238/.326/.473/.799 slash. 

He had an OPS of .476 last year on the date these 162 games started - and .799 since.

The deadline would be a great time to cash in on Kole, but should the Angels hold onto him, I’m not entirely sure his option should be declined - he looks to be a safe .235/.325/.475/.800 guy with 30 doubles, 30 HR, 75 BB, GG defense at this point - at least for another season or two. I’m not sure the Angels will get enough value back in a trade unless an acquiring team is banking on keeping him for 2020 as well. 

I could also see the Angels picking up his option and then still dealing him afterwards too.

If they weren’t in the same division fighting for the same spot, I’d argue something like a Kole Calhoun for Lance Lynn deal could’ve made some sense, but I’m struggling to find many matches. Cleveland?

Overall though, I don’t think the Angels are going to sell Kole unless they totally bottom out before 7/31. And I am inclined to think they might keep him for 2020 as well, unless they absolutely need every penny possible going after FA pitching - which is possible. Clearing Harvey, Cahill, Allen, and likely JC Ramirez and Nick Tropeano clears up $30m right there for perhaps Gerrit Cole or two mid-tier FA SP arms. Keeping La Stella helps stabilize the offense too. And I would still think Adell eventually reaches Anaheim in 2020. He might be MLB ready, and cheap, and potentially dynamic, but given he doesn’t need to be added to the 40-man yet, it may be best to pencil him in for AAA CF and serve as our insurance if Upton, Trout, Calhoun, Ohtani, or Pujols get hurt, rather than elevating Adell and everyone below him up - unless they need Kole’s money or find a good return. 

I’m more and more inclined to keep Kole for next year.  This allows Angels to hold on to Adell for one more year without starting his clock, and helps ease him in to the lineup. The one hold up would be if more money is needed this offseason for starting pitching, as tots pointed out. 

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Whether the Angels keep Calhoun may be influenced by how Adell does if given a cup of coffee in September. 

In other words, Adell might get the Trout treatment: cup of coffee this year, starts next in AAA and has to earn his way into the lineup. If he rakes in Salt Lake, the Angels can make room for him come May.

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Furthermore, a look ahead at what's coming off the books:

  • $35.7m after 2019: Harvey ($11m), Cahill ($9m), Allen ($8.5m), Bour ($2.5m), Ramirez ($1.9m), Garcia ($1.7m), Tropeano ($1.1m)- I didn't count Lucroy, because I imagine we'll sign someone else similarly.
  • $40-45m after 2020: Simmons ($15m), Calhoun ($14m), Cozart ($12.67m), and whatever La Stella's new arb figure is. I imagine Simmons will be an extension/re-sign candidate.
  • $30m after 2021: Pujols ($30m)
  • $28m after 2022: Upton ($28m)

The Angels have plenty of money coming off the books the next four offseasons to allow them to pursue truly impact FAs now - but it's only doable if they have a farm pumping in enough players to round out all the other needs - a 4th OF, a catcher, utility infielders, back-of-rotation arms, relievers - all the types of free agents that tend to suck more often than not. That's why a .700 OPS Matt Thaiss still helps us. That's why a 4.50 ERA from Jaime Barria in #5 helps. That's why Noe Ramirez and a 3.50 long relief ERA helps. All these guys hitting the bigs at the same time helps, because it keeps them on similar arbitration schedules as well. Once this new wave starts hitting the second year of arb and making a couple mil, the Angels can start looking towards Jackson, Maitan, Martinez, Adams, Wilson, Knowles.

So, next year.

  • 2020 Rotation
    • 1) Gerrit Cole or up to two of Bumgarner, Ryu, Wheeler, Odorizzi, Porcello, Perez, Pineda, Wood, Wacha, Roark, Nova, Miley, Gio - the only real clear and glaring need is a big arm or two to the rotation.
    • 2) Ohtani
    • 3) Heaney
    • 4) Canning
    • 5) Pena
    • 6) Barria, Suarez, Sandoval, Madero
  • 2020 Lineup
    • 3B La Stella
    • CF Trout
    • DH Ohtani
    • LF Upton
    • SS Simmons
    • 1B Pujols
    • RF Calhoun
    • C cheap vet FAs
    • 2B Fletcher
  • 2020 Bench
    • back-up catcher, Cozart as UT IF, Goodwin/Hermosillo/Lund for 4th OF, and a rotation of Rengifo, Ward, Thaiss, Walsh, Rojas for the last spot, based on need
  • 2020 Bullpen
    • Buttrey, Robles, Anderson, Middleton, Bedrosian, Cole, Ramirez, Bard, Jewell, spare SPs, a waiver claim or two, Madero, Ortega

Looks good to me, really. A lot of youth, not even counting Adell, Marsh, or Jones, any of whom could also show up next year. 

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^Good stuff. I like the future outlook of the team except in a few key areas: top-end starting pitching, catcher, and 1B. The outfield, middle infield, and bullpen all look good to great, with some pitching depth, just little high-end talent.

It is beyond clear that more than anything else, the Angels need a staff ace (or two). There is only one Max Scherzer and only a few consistently truly great starters, but certainly a couple #2s are possible. Ohtani is one possibility, but obviously with question marks. Gerrit Cole fits the profile of what the Angels need perfectly, is from SoCal, but will just be damn expensive - plus he already plays for a much better team, so may want to stay put. That said, if we can't have Cole/Ohtani at the top of the rotation next year, I'll settle for Wheeler/Ohtani or Bumgarner/Ohtani or an all-Asian Ryu/Ohtani.

Catcher is just a mess, now and in the future - there are literally no viable prospects in the minors. That said, Eppler can float on this one, but I'd rather he focus on guys with plus defensive skills, even if that means a big hole in the lineup. That said, Grandal is a free agent next year and would greatly improve the team as much as any player, by a +3-4 WAR swing. But one way in which fantasy baseball mirrors real baseball is that once the elite catchers are off the board, might as well bargain hunt. 

There's no rush on 1B as Pujols isn't going anywhere for another two plus years, and the Angels can fill in the gaps with Calhoun, Ward, Walsh, and Thaiss. But it remains an organizational weakness, with no big bats in the pipeline. 

3B has been a weak spot, but that changed with the emergence of La Stella, and I'm reasonably optimistic about Thaiss. Long-term there are options, mostly current middle infield prospects who could move over (e.g. Jeremiah Jackson, Kevin Maitan, Will Wilson).

So if I'm Eppler, I go hard after Cole; if that doesn't work, settle for Ryu, Wheeler, Bumgarner, and maybe try to swing a trade for Syndergaard et al.

See if Grandal will take a 3/$45M, even $50M offer. That would greatly bolster the lineup and defense. If not, go after a solid defender to platoon with Smith and take the loss in offense.

Most everything else can be fleshed out from within.

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5 hours ago, Jeff Fletcher said:

Also, Calhoun is a pretty important piece of that clubhouse. I think you’d have to be really really really sure that you’re out of it and you’re getting a major piece back in order to be worth the clubhouse impact of trading him, under the current atmosphere. 

Was going to mention this. Not that its an end all and be all. But his role in the clubhouse makes it a bit more complicated than him just being trade bait.

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