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FanGraphs: Fielding-Independent Game Recap


ettin

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http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/fielding-independent-game-recap/

 

Notably in Blanton's start the other night neither side gave up any home runs or walks, resulting in the Angels pitching staff having a 0.12 FIP vs. the Royals 0.79 FIP.

 

I'm not here to debate FIP or start an argument about its value or lack of value, but, as I pointed out in a pre-season article, the Blanton signing was a statistical play on Jerry Dipoto's part where Jerry thought that bringing Blanton into pitcher-friendly Anaheim would bring his career 4.3 ERA (at the time of the signing) closer to 4.00 or even below it and provide our staff with a pitcher who could eat innings (of which Joe has consistently averaged about 190 IP per season).

 

Unfortunately, as you are all aware, this experiment has completely failed so far. As a side note, remarkably, Blanton still sits at a 4.10 xFIP which is supposed to indicate that he has pitched well despite coughing up too many long balls. Really the most interesting part is that the projection systems see him pitching better than he has year to date (which is still below average, sadly).

 

In the end it seems Blanton is just one of those pitchers that consistently defies his peripherals (With Weaver being the opposite side of that coin). :(

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SIERA is a good one to use, it's not predictive, but it's basically ERA, park adjusted, past performance.  Not predictive like xFIP, which also has a high correlation rate, but it doesn't consider BAPIP, which is why there are pitchers who can defy it.  Like Weaver and Blanton.  We know why they defy it. 

 

Most advanced stats are not horrible though. 

 

WAR for example has a .94 correlation to actual W-L results.  That's higher than the simple pythag theorems.

 

While wOBA and wRC+ aren't predictive, it's literally what happened and how they created runs.  Not sure how anyone could be against those two offensive stats. 

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http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/fielding-independent-game-recap/

 

Notably in Blanton's start the other night neither side gave up any home runs or walks, resulting in the Angels pitching staff having a 0.12 FIP vs. the Royals 0.79 FIP.

 

I'm not here to debate FIP or start an argument about its value or lack of value, but, as I pointed out in a pre-season article, the Blanton signing was a statistical play on Jerry Dipoto's part where Jerry thought that bringing Blanton into pitcher-friendly Anaheim would bring his career 4.3 ERA (at the time of the signing) closer to 4.00 or even below it and provide our staff with a pitcher who could eat innings (of which Joe has consistently averaged about 190 IP per season).

 

Unfortunately, as you are all aware, this experiment has completely failed so far. As a side note, remarkably, Blanton still sits at a 4.10 xFIP which is supposed to indicate that he has pitched well despite coughing up too many long balls. Really the most interesting part is that the projection systems see him pitching better than he has year to date (which is still below average, sadly).

 

In the end it seems Blanton is just one of those pitchers that consistently defies his peripherals (With Weaver being the opposite side of that coin). :(

 

According to xFIP and Fangraphs WAR Jered Weaver has sucked his entire career.

 

The entire premise that a pitcher has no influence on how hard balls in play are hit, and that the only difference between a flyball going to shallow CF or 100 feet past the wall is random chance is idiotic.

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According to xFIP and Fangraphs WAR Jered Weaver has sucked his entire career.

 

The entire premise that a pitcher has no influence on how hard balls in play are hit, and that a flyball going to shallow CF or 100 feet past the wall is random chance is idiocy.

Well, that premise doesn't exist. There are multiple pitcher metric stats and you have to use all of them for a good scope.  XFIP alone has that premise, but no one uses it like that.  BAPIP is considered, how hard of contact they make, basically.  We know why Weaver has a low era and a high FIP.  He produces weak contact.  This is all part of the process of statistics.  Find out the performance and if there is a consistent error in one, find out why.  We know why now. 

 

Point being, the premise you think exists, doesn't exist.

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xFIP has a pretty terrible track record of correlation to performance of the season it is valuing and future performance as well. That's pretty easy to see. Not sure how it got a reputation of something other than that.

I am not sure you are basing this off the r value or if this is just confirmation bias. 

 

But it's wrong, either way.  It has a decent correlation, but it needs to be used with many other pitching metrics.

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