Angelswin.com 2017 Season Primer Part IX: Third Base

[AngelsWin.com]

By Robert Cunningham, AngelsWin.com Senior Writer - 

Author’s Note: If you missed the previous installments you can find Part I here, Part II here, Part III here, Part IV here, Part V here, Part VI here, Part VII here, and Part VIII here.

So let us talk about Yunel Escobar.

First of all he is not a great baserunner, nor a base stealer. He just doesn’t add much value there if any.

In regards to his defensive ability, as Angelswin.com member ‘Dochalo’ said, here, “I think defense bores him and he loses focus.”

At one point in time Escobar was a good defensive shortstop but his move to third base has been lackluster at best and blundering at its worst. Doc is probably correct.

However, we should note one thing regarding his defense as seen in the two graphs, below, contrasting a really good defensive third baseman and Yunel:

Clearly Arenado has superior range but the interesting thing to note is how confined Escobar is to the third base line.

This has to be due, in part, to the Simmons effect as Yunel probably has been instructed to stay tight to the line (and rightfully so) to prevent down-the-line doubles and triples and to let Andrelton do his thing.

When you look at the components of Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR) for infielders you see it consists of double play runs above average, range runs above average, and error runs above average.

Clearly Escobar has made errors, which is all on him. However, it could be argued that his confinement to a limited area on the third base side, due to Simmons in 2016 and Espinosa in 2015 when he was with the Nationals, might artificially limit his ability to turn double plays (opportunities are low) and show his lateral range (because of Simmons).

We are not making an argument that he does not commit errors. It is an argument though that the defensive metrics over the last two years may have been a lot harsher regarding his actual ability when compared to league average third basemen.

This may (and this is pure speculation) contribute to Escobar appearing bored or, in fact, being actually bored. No matter what though it is apparent his defense needs some improvement and FanGraphs projection systems seem to agree that it will recover a bit in 2017.

All of this talk about what he does not have brings us around to the primary thing that he does have: His bat.

FanGraphs posted a nifty article last week on hitter contact-quality for American League third baseman.

In that article they have a ‘BIP Profiles’ matrix graph and there are three very interesting characteristics that stand out regarding Yunel.

One is the really low pop up percentage where Escobar is over one standard deviation less than average for the group at 1.1%. There was only one other player, Nick Castellanos, who did slightly better in 2016. This simply means that Yunel avoids easy outs this way (slightly increasing his BABIP).

Item number two is his low strikeout percentage which is also over one standard deviation less than average sitting at a tidy 11.8%. This has been a key component of Escobar’s modus operandi which is to not walk or strikeout much and put the ball in play often.

The third item was the most interesting of the three characteristics regarding his extremely low 19.7% fly ball percentage. This, too, is over one standard deviation less than average and is a major contributor to his high BABIP rate of .339 in 2016.

It was so low it made me curious to pull up a leaderboard on FanGraphs of the lowest fly ball percentages league wide with a minimum of 100 PA’s. There was another interesting name, Cesar Hernandez, near the top of that list who, as we all know per Jeff Fletcher, the Angels were pursuing earlier in the offseason:

Basically over the last two seasons Yunel has managed to drop his fly ball percentage by about 2-3% and increase his line drive percentage by about the same amount. This combined with his ability to spray the ball to all fields, particularly up the middle, makes for a dynamic 2-hole hitter.

Now of course the Angels utilized him as their lead-off hitter in 2016 and he did well in that capacity but if they do start the 2017 season with Escobar on the roster it would not be unsurprising to see them put Maybin in at the top of the order and slide Yunel down a spot.

If Cameron can recreate his .383 OBP in 2017, having Escobar bat behind him could really recreate some of the old magic of Scioscia’s previous pressure type offenses by putting on hit and run plays and going first to third, challenging the opponent’s defense.

Of course the Angels could simply keep the same top four of the batting order that they had last year because of the “if it ain’t broke don’t fix it” mentality which would be perfectly acceptable.

Escobar is in his last season of control at a reasonable $7MM salary for 2017. This is almost certainly the last time we will see Yunel in an Angels uniform as Eppler will likely look to the free agent or trade markets to replace his production.

There is always a possibility that the 3B market doesn’t pan out to Billy’s liking and he re-signs him to a one year deal to bridge to a highly prized free agent like Manny Machado for instance (one can always dream and Lozano’s his agent right?).

Finally we should discuss the possibility that Yunel could still be traded pre-season.

Technically the Angels could see Maybin as their new lead-off hitter and Escobar as someone that can be upgraded, particularly on the defensive side of the equation.

The same problem the Angels had finding a 2B this offseason would also apply to 3B, perhaps even more so because the best two defensive 3B on the market, Turner and Prado, have been signed. Only Stephen Drew, Luis Valbuena, and Chase Utley remain and those seem like tertiary options rather than primary or even secondary ones.

It is possible the Angels could trade for a 3B but, again, the options are not particularly expansive. Someone like Mike Moustakas is in his last year of control but the Royals seem, at this point in time, more likely to make one last run with their core group and if they are out by the deadline then sell off those expiring parts.

Frazier, who is in his last year of control, is certainly available but he is out of the Angels reach financially in all likelihood at close to $13MM. Chase Headley might be more achievable and Eppler might be able to pull off a “two birds, one stone” or possibly even “three birds, two stones” type trade with his former club the Yankees.

Nick Castellanos is probably on the block too but he is similar to Yunel defensively although he has more pop in his bat. Other hitters like Jake Lamb and Eugenio Suarez might also be obtainable but they would cost Eppler quite a bit of prospect currency making them very doubtful.

Of course all of this trade talk is predicated on the Angels finding a trade partner for Yunel Escobar and his remaining $7MM salary which may prove hard to execute in the current environment.

In the end this is fine. The Angels have use for him and, with Simmons playing to his left, Escobar can continue sticking to the third base line and working some magic with his bat particularly against left-handed pitching which he destroys.

Let us leave the reader with a personally selected photo from Angelswin.com member Glen’s very private, special file:

What is this man thinking about?

[Docwaukee]

Nice job Robert.  Could be something to your theory about him playing next to excellent defensive SS or it could be that if he moved away from the bag a bit more, it would compromise his range to both sides as he's got the foul line to protect him right now.  

also, No love for Marte? 

[Angel Oracle]

So glad that Borass isn't Machado's agent.

Make it happen in two years Arte! Your AAV payroll drops considerably by then, and Machado will still be some 3 years UNDER age 30.

It's the perfect marriage for a team lacking a real 3B throughout the decade.

[ettin]

39 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

Nice job Robert.  Could be something to your theory about him playing next to excellent defensive SS or it could be that if he moved away from the bag a bit more, it would compromise his range to both sides as he's got the foul line to protect him right now.  

also, No love for Marte? 

LOL, yeah I was saving Marte for my bench article. I feel pretty strongly the Angels are going to roll with Escobar to start the season, particularly for the reasons I laid out above in terms of offense but Jefry could easily be our starting 3B by mid-year and/or 2018.

[ettin]

11 minutes ago, Angel Oracle said:

So glad that Borass isn't Machado's agent.

Make it happen in two years Arte! Your AAV payroll drops considerably by then, and Machado will still be some 3 years UNDER age 30.

It's the perfect marriage for a team lacking a real 3B throughout the decade.

Machado makes a LOT of sense for our team if we don't go a different route between now and the 2018/2019 offseason.

He plays superlative defense, is a strong offensive contributor, and most importantly he provides depth behind Simmons (and heck anywhere else he wants to play at). He will be 26 years old entering the 2019 season. Unfortunately we will not be the only team pursuing him but the Angels do have Marte as a potential future regular and of course we could always trade for a different option or sign a different free agent.

It would be a huge contract so I'd rather see the Angels allocate those resources to Trout but if we happen to get that done and we have space left over Machado would be freaking awesome. It is really remote though. The Yankees, Red Sox, and Phillies will probably be in that mix at that time.

[Second Base]

I think I'm pretty much alone in liking Escobar. I just think there's gotta be more there defensively. He was such a solid shortstop. And offensively, I think he's proven that his breakout season with the Nats a couple years ago is real. Last year he followed it up with another impressive campaign. Escobar is just so much better at the plate than what we had before. It's no coincidence that our offense was functioning again once we acquired Escobar. 

Plus, he fits Eppler's style in that he makes tons of contact, gets on base, is only under contract for one year and his base salary isn't overly expensive.

And finally, we traded Trevor Gott for him, straight up. A dynamic young RP. The thing about young relievers like that is that one minute they're great, the next, they implode. We've seen it with Kohn, Morin, Jepsen, Bedrosian...

We didn't overpay for Yunel, as if we're out of it come July, we can trade him at the deadline and still get our full investment back in the form of a dynamic young RP.

I won't pretend Yunel is great, but he is good. But more importantly he's a good fit.

[nikkachez]

One more season of Yunel, thank god, I'm not a big fan of his. 

 

Moustakas next winter or Machado the winter after that, that's what I'm hoping Eppler is waiting to spend on. Machado could change the course of the franchise. Plus the new M&M boys hitting in the middle of the lineup? Mike and Manny in the peaks of their careers, babyyy (Machado will be 26 when he's a free agent, Mike will be 27 heading into the 2019 season). 

[Angel Oracle]

14 minutes ago, ettin said:

Machado makes a LOT of sense for our team if we don't go a different route between now and the 2018/2019 offseason.

He plays superlative defense, is a strong offensive contributor, and most importantly he provides depth behind Simmons (and heck anywhere else he wants to play at). He will be 26 years old entering the 2019 season. Unfortunately we will not be the only team pursuing him but the Angels do have Marte as a potential future regular and of course we could always trade for a different option or sign a different free agent.

It would be a huge contract so I'd rather see the Angels allocate those resources to Trout but if we happen to get that done and we have space left over Machado would be freaking awesome. It is really remote though. The Yankees, Red Sox, and Phillies will probably be in that mix at that time.

Admittedly, Moose may be a better money spent target a year from now, as he would command a lot less than Machado while still providing really good 3B defense and enough hitting, and that money saved could bring in an extra pitcher.

[ettin]

17 minutes ago, Scotty@AW said:

I think I'm pretty much alone in liking Escobar. I just think there's gotta be more there defensively. He was such a solid shortstop. And offensively, I think he's proven that his breakout season with the Nats a couple years ago is real. Last year he followed it up with another impressive campaign. Escobar is just so much better at the plate than what we had before. It's no coincidence that our offense was functioning again once we acquired Escobar. 

Plus, he fits Eppler's style in that he makes tons of contact, gets on base, is only under contract for one year and his base salary isn't overly expensive.

And finally, we traded Trevor Gott for him, straight up. A dynamic young RP. The thing about young relievers like that is that one minute they're great, the next, they implode. We've seen it with Kohn, Morin, Jepsen, Bedrosian...

We didn't overpay for Yunel, as if we're out of it come July, we can trade him at the deadline and still get our full investment back in the form of a dynamic young RP.

I won't pretend Yunel is great, but he is good. But more importantly he's a good fit.

Did I come off negative there Scotty?

I actually do believe that the Simmons effect has had some measurable impact on Escobar's defensive positioning and opportunities at 3B. If you were a reasonably decent defensive player and you got pigeonholed into a position where you cannot exercise that ability it might lead to boredom or frustration even. I'm not saying that is the cause but it seems like it is a potential impact. I guess I was trying to intimate that Yunel is probably a bit better defensively than the metrics and his positioning give him credit for. Also he has only been at the position for two years basically and when he was with the Nationals he had Espinosa playing SS so he had a very similar situation. It could be a combination of his actual ability, positioning, and unfamiliarity with the hot corner that has defined his stay there to date. Interestingly the projection systems see him improving slightly by the way.

The bat is underappreciated in terms of what he is able to do with it. He really is good at the top of the order and as I will discuss in the Left Field section I think hitting out of the 2-hole is very likely in 2017.

At his current price and based on the teams current defensive configuration Escobar makes a lot of sense and has good value for the team.

[ettin]

12 minutes ago, Angel Oracle said:

Admittedly, Moose may be a better money spent target a year from now, as he would command a lot less than Machado while still providing really good 3B defense and enough hitting, and that money saved could bring in an extra pitcher.

To be honest this is something to consider: Machado is so good defensively that it might, dare I say it, be overkill with Simmons to his left. The Angels may prefer a 3B with really good reaction speed, instincts and a good glove with other tangibles such as power or good hitting rather than a guy with great lateral range because they have Andrelton manning SS. Someone like Moustakas might be a better fit in the Angels eyes.

Then again Machado is freaking awesome and the Angels could simply slide Simmons more towards the 2B side and have an even tighter defensive alignment.

[Docwaukee]

Sorry to be a kill joy on Machado, but he's gonna get the 2nd or 3rd biggest contract in baseball history.  If Trout gets 40 per year for 10+, Machado is going to get 35 per for 12-14.  I think there is a very small chance that the halos commit 10+yrs and three quarters of a billion dollars to two players.  

Also, Machado prefers SS over 3b.  

I think we're gonna see Marte/Cowart at 3b in 2018.  

Escobar has value in that his obp at the top of our lineup is huge.  It's the only thing that justifies his value though.  Gonna be very interesting to see how MS makes his lineup.  

[Angelsjunky]

Escobar is pretty much the definition of Average Regular. He is above average in his batting average and on-base percentage, slightly below average in terms of power, below average in terms of defense and baserunning.

Machado would be sweet but it is a pipe-dream. Plus, very few teams can have two superstars under full price contract. The Anels would be paying Trout and Machado $80 million a year - about half the team's payroll.

[nikkachez]

5 hours ago, ettin said:

To be honest this is something to consider: Machado is so good defensively that it might, dare I say it, be overkill with Simmons to his left. The Angels may prefer a 3B with really good reaction speed, instincts and a good glove with other tangibles such as power or good hitting rather than a guy with great lateral range because they have Andrelton manning SS. Someone like Moustakas might be a better fit in the Angels eyes.

 

Moustakas seems like an Eppler-type move. He's a very solid third baseman defensively, he makes a ton of contact, walks at a decent clip, good pop. He'll only be 29, he's from Los Angeles, fills a long-term need of the franchise, coincides with Eppler's ability to spend and with the new CBA, you're not forfeiting a 1st round pick. It makes too much sense honestly. 

So I think that's how Eppler will end the splurging drought, probably won't won't be a huge market for third basemen next winter, Angels should capitalize on that. What concerns me is the need for a left fielder, second baseman, catcher, and some more pitching. Sound familiar? Hahaha 

And there are no answers for those in free agency next year unless they want an aging Lucroy 

[ettin]

1 hour ago, nikkachez said:

Moustakas seems like an Eppler-type move. He's a very solid third baseman defensively, he makes a ton of contact, walks at a decent clip, good pop. He'll only be 29, he's from Los Angeles, fills a long-term need of the franchise, coincides with Eppler's ability to spend and with the new CBA, you're not forfeiting a 1st round pick. It makes too much sense honestly. 

So I think that's how Eppler will end the splurging drought, probably won't won't be a huge market for third basemen next winter, Angels should capitalize on that. What concerns me is the need for a left fielder, second baseman, catcher, and some more pitching. Sound familiar? Hahaha 

And there are no answers for those in free agency next year unless they want an aging Lucroy 

If we don't do well this upcoming season I am pretty positive that Eppler will use our viable trade chips (of which we would have a few) to acquire players to fill the holes we will inevitably have, probably in left field, the rotation, and/or the bullpen. Between now and next offseason Billy will almost certainly acquire a 2B that he tried to get this offseason with the same names like Hernandez, Wong, Villar, et al on his radar. I agree with Doc that our 3B solution next year will probably be Marte and/or Cowart (or in a platoon) primarily because of team payroll.

It certainly is possible the Angels could sign someone like Moustakas but it will put pressure on the team payroll because many of our arbitration players like Richards, Calhoun, Shoemaker, et al are starting to escalate significantly. Of course there are places where we can cut payroll like Nolasco and Street (both trade deadline guys if we aren't in it by mid-July) but I think the Angels will hand out at least one or more extensions to help provide cost certainty to the payroll over the remainder of Trout's controllable years.

[Second Base]

12 hours ago, ettin said:

If we don't do well this upcoming season I am pretty positive that Eppler will use our viable trade chips (of which we would have a few) to acquire players to fill the holes we will inevitably have, probably in left field, the rotation, and/or the bullpen. Between now and next offseason Billy will almost certainly acquire a 2B that he tried to get this offseason with the same names like Hernandez, Wong, Villar, et al on his radar. I agree with Doc that our 3B solution next year will probably be Marte and/or Cowart (or in a platoon) primarily because of team payroll.

It certainly is possible the Angels could sign someone like Moustakas but it will put pressure on the team payroll because many of our arbitration players like Richards, Calhoun, Shoemaker, et al are starting to escalate significantly. Of course there are places where we can cut payroll like Nolasco and Street (both trade deadline guys if we aren't in it by mid-July) but I think the Angels will hand out at least one or more extensions to help provide cost certainty to the payroll over the remainder of Trout's controllable years.

I think it will be interesting to see who the Angels approach about a potential extension between Richards, Shoemaker, Skaggs, Bedrosian and Calhoun. It wouldn't be a bad idea to pursue that with every player, but if they're going after only one, my guess would be Calhoun given his defense, role in the clubhouse and left handed-ness. But if Richards does make the full recovery and has another brilliant season as he did pre-injury in 2014, they may want to lock him up.

[nikkachez]

13 hours ago, ettin said:

If we don't do well this upcoming season I am pretty positive that Eppler will use our viable trade chips (of which we would have a few) to acquire players to fill the holes we will inevitably have, probably in left field, the rotation, and/or the bullpen. Between now and next offseason Billy will almost certainly acquire a 2B that he tried to get this offseason with the same names like Hernandez, Wong, Villar, et al on his radar. I agree with Doc that our 3B solution next year will probably be Marte and/or Cowart (or in a platoon) primarily because of team payroll.

It certainly is possible the Angels could sign someone like Moustakas but it will put pressure on the team payroll because many of our arbitration players like Richards, Calhoun, Shoemaker, et al are starting to escalate significantly. Of course there are places where we can cut payroll like Nolasco and Street (both trade deadline guys if we aren't in it by mid-July) but I think the Angels will hand out at least one or more extensions to help provide cost certainty to the payroll over the remainder of Trout's controllable years.

 

Uhhhh we don't even want Street, why would anyone else (for anything of value too)? The answers to those positions are not by trading Yunel, Nolasco, Street, Espinosa, or any of the other impending free agents unless Eppler pulls of a miracle and lands an everyday second baseman for 2 months of Yunel Escobar. Their best bet would be to get Heaney/Trop back and trading a starter for an area of need (which also makes me uncomfortable). 

[Second Base]

1 hour ago, nikkachez said:

Uhhhh we don't even want Street, why would anyone else (for anything of value too)? The answers to those positions are not by trading Yunel, Nolasco, Street, Espinosa, or any of the other impending free agents unless Eppler pulls of a miracle and lands an everyday second baseman for 2 months of Yunel Escobar. Their best bet would be to get Heaney/Trop back and trading a starter for an area of need (which also makes me uncomfortable). 

If Street is healthy and pitching the way he's capable, there would be quite a few teams inquiring on him at the deadline. Let's not pretend as if he's not good because of one bad, injured season when he'd been good for almost a decade before that. He may or may not be washed up, but on the off chance he isn't, Street is valuable.

[California Cajun]

I'm just happy they upgraded LF and 2B. Not sure why they traded a 26 year old catcher for a 30 year old catcher but I think Eppler knows what he's doing. You could do worse than Escobar, and we have.