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Buy low market emerging..


Inside Pitch

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Guys are getting cut loose...  First possible buy low candidate of the offseason....  Brandon Morrow.

Morrow's been hurt hasn't pitched much the last two years and when he finally did come back the ERA looked ugly but there were good signs too.   Morrow's K rate remained strong, his HR rate was nonexistent and his GB% was at 50%.   When it was all said and done a high BABIP coupled with an elevated walk rate led to a lot of base-runners and an ugly ERA.   I know for many here a bad ERA means a guy sucks but his FIP came in at 3.73 which follows his career trend of projecting better than he's actually done -- the defenses behind him have always been less than elite and it's always hurt his numbers..   Maybe more importantly he came back showing the same velocity he had 5 years ago.  The arm is still there.

 

Last year I was high on Phil Hughes and his potential to pay off, Morrow has a chance IMHO to be 2015's Phil Hughes.   Because of the recent injury issues and the concerns regarding his Type 1 diabetes Morrow could possibly be had for cheap....   He's a number 5 at worst with upside potential and a solid option in the pen.   He's a Cali guy, pitched his college ball at Cal too.  It's possible he might enjoy returning to the West Coast.    

 

Not saying this is a guy you bank on, but he's a potential lottery ticket.  His arm and stuff is better than most of the pitchers in his situation and he's shown the ability to pitch at a very high level.

 

 

 

 

 

 

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was actually going to comment on him in the FA list thread as someone I'd love to see the halos go after.  Could be a great option to bridge the gap early in the season and if he starts to tire out, his stuff would play in the pen.  

 

I was a big proponent of Hughes and was thoroughly disappointed we didn't get him considering his ties to the area and there being indicators he wanted to play here.  The twins park is very similar to ours so I think he would have done well and he wasn't even 28 to start the season.  Low 3's era and 200ip from a guy who misses a lot of bats would have been nice.  oh well.  

 

The jays traded Adam Lind to the Brewers for Marco Estrada today.  Not that it's a big deal, but Estrada was a potential target.  

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I like where your head is at IP. Sure depth is fine, but the Angels aren't necessarily in need of 200 innings at a 4.50 ERA. They could definitely gamble on Morrow's upside and be no worse off if it goes unrealized.

Grab guys like himself and Mulder and we should be good. Our big 3 in Weav, Richards and Shoe are set. Among CJ, Santiago, Rasmus, Mulder and Morrow, they should be able to find some consistency.

What I like especially is that even if stating doesn't work out, these guys gave options. Santiago or Mulder can serve as lefty specialists in the pen. Morrow and Rasmus could be either middle relievers or long relievers as well.

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I would actually love to get Morrow. If he struggles as a starter, I think he could be a sneaky good bullpen guy. His injuries have been an issue but he still averaged 94 mph on his fastball in 2014. 

 

He's had some very odd results in his career.

 

In 2010, he had a 4.49 ERA but had a 3.16 FIP and punched out 10.95 batters per 9 innings. His BABIP was a ridiculous .342 that season. 2011 was more of the same except he allowed home runs at a much higher rate. 

 

In 2012, he had his best season where he cut his walks down, got more ground balls and had a sub 3 ERA. His strikeouts, however, went down. 

 

If you can grab him for a cheap 1/2 or 1/3 type of deal, I think it would be worth it. 

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That strategy worked so well for us two years ago.

 

 

 

So, they shouldn't sign anyone to big money because well, those deals never work out..  They shouldn't look for value guys because well, Madsen.   They shouldn't trade for anyone because well, Hanson.  They shouldn't sign someone who's numbers say he's better than the raw stats because well, Blanton..   They should just shove their faces in the sand and do nothing for fear of their past mistakes.

 

Sounds like a sound strategy moving forward.

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I would be very pleased to add Brandon Morrow on the cheap, along with someone like McCarthy or Liriano (or Maeda).  By mid-season, we could be looking at a very serviceable rotation of Richards, Weaver, Liriano, Shoemaker and Morrow, with depth of Wilson, Santiago, Rasmus, etc.

 

I'd also love to trade for someone like Christian Yelich or Starling Marte to hit leadoff, moving Calhoun, Trout, Pujols etc. down a spot in the lineup.

Edited by HaloWHAM!
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Given Arte's determination to avoid the luxury tax, I'm all in favor of signing a couple of low cost, high risk guys on one year deals, presuming that the medical evaluations check out at all.  Morrow, Billingsley, Mulder or Josh Johnson would all fit the bill.  I would also check in on Masterson, but he may be out of what the Angels view as an acceptable price/length of contract.

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Better to gamble on the Morrows and Hughes, than to sign the Hackiltons to big money deals and trade for big money busts like Mr. Pop-Up Wells!

 

Save the bigger money for the young Cuban prospect Moncada, who wouldn't count against the luxury tax limit.

Edited by Angel Oracle
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