2-6 in 1 Run Games. +30 Run Differential

[Angel_In_Germany]

At the end of the day, it's only W's and L's that determine the playoffs, but realizing that it's April, it's encouraging to at least realize that we're better than our record.  We blow out teams in our wins and lose by a run in our losses.  Unclutch?  Maybe, but you can't keep leading the league (AL) in runs, run differential, etc. without it turning around at some point.  My opinion.

[AngelsFaninGA]

Meh. The run differential is inflated because of a handful of lopsided wins (9-1, 11-1, 14-2, 13-1), just like the Rangers's differential is deflated because of a few lopsided losses. The record in one-run games is due to a shaky bullpen and a lack of timely hitting (we've griped for years about how this team mails it in in the later innings). Good teams win one-run games, bad teams don't. It's telling that if you look at the standing last year the good teams (with the lone exception of Detroit) were over .500 in one-run games, while the bad teams were under .500.

[bloodbrother]

Make that 2-7

[AngelsFaninGA]

Make that 2-7

 

And we lost it just like all of the other 1 run games: lack of timely hitting and a bad bullpen. 

[EDinTUSTIN]

And we lost it just like all of the other 1 run games: lack of timely hitting and a bad bullpen. 

Exacerbated in a big way by an even worse catcher. If Ianetta just did his job properly, we probably would have dodged a bullet and left the eighth inning in a tie score.

[dimitrig]

Good teams win the close ones. This is not a good team.

[gurn67]

By my calculations, this team is 4-10 in close games that they had a chance to win. 7-3 in games decided by 4 runs or more (7-0 since the opening Seattle series).

 

The late innings for 4+ years now has been torturous.  Many of these games, (I know it doesn't happen every close game, but it happens too often) the Angels' reliever walks the leadoff man, someone else gets on and then Sosh finally tells Butcher to make a call to the bullpen. Meanwhile, there's 5 or 6 guys sitting in the bullpen doing the same thing I'm doing, watching the f'ng game!!! However, when the Angels leadoff batter gets on, they'll show the bullpen camera and there's always one, if not two guys warming up giving their manager two or three choices of what to do with the next hitter. Is it harmful to have our guys warming up just in case? The other teams do it and it seems to be a pretty good strategy as they've absolutely killed us in the late innings. Just tired of this, that's all.

[ScottT]

The 2013 Red Sox were 21-21 in one run games.

 

From 2009-2013, the Angels won 53% of their games.  They won 50% of their one run games.   120-120.

 

From 2004-2008, the Angels won 58% of their games.  They won 55% of their one run games.  133-109.

 

Like clutch hitting, winning one run games isn't a skill.  I suspect that having a good bullpen helps, but I also suspect if the Angels continued at this rate, their season would rank among the biggest freak seasons in the history of baseball.... and they'd have one of the worst records in the last 50 years in one run games. It won't last.  

[Docwaukee]

The 2013 Red Sox were 21-21 in one run games.

 

From 2009-2013, the Angels won 53% of their games.  They won 50% of their one run games.   120-120.

 

From 2004-2008, the Angels won 58% of their games.  They won 55% of their one run games.  133-109.

 

Like clutch hitting, winning one run games isn't a skill.  I suspect that having a good bullpen helps, but I also suspect if the Angels continued at this rate, their season would rank among the biggest freak seasons in the history of baseball.... and they'd have one of the worst records in the last 50 years in one run games. It won't last.  

I beg to differ about it being a skill.  

 

Bullpen WPA from 2004-2009?  35.65

Bullpen WPA from 2010-current? -1.09

 

if you compare WPA of relievers to W/L in close games, a higher number correlates to a better record.  

 

The other component is how a team hits in high leverage situations which isn't necessarily a repeatable skill.  Nonetheless, the Angels have a wRC+ of 24 in high leverage situations.  By far the lowest in the league.  

[Inside Pitch]

I beg to differ about it being a skill.  

 

Bullpen WPA from 2004-2009?  35.65

Bullpen WPA from 2010-current? -1.09

 

if you compare WPA of relievers to W/L in close games, a higher number correlates to a better record.  

 

The other component is how a team hits in high leverage situations which isn't necessarily a repeatable skill.  Nonetheless, the Angels have a wRC+ of 24 in high leverage situations.  By far the lowest in the league.  

 

There have been studies done using data spanning decades -- pretty much every single one of them has shown that while there are clearly factors that aid in close games, that one run outcomes have a great deal of volatility... some call that luck.   In saber circles it's often said winning by 3 denotes skill, winning by one is luck.  I'm not making a counter-argument so much as I'm repeating old info..  

 

While I DO believe it's true that the outcome of one run games is often as predictable as a coin flip, there is absolutely nothing about the Angels poor showing in one run games that is just plain old bad luck -- as you pointed out, they have been bad at the things that help you win those games -- particularly the pen.

[ScottT]

Point is, it won't continue.

[Aaronkv]

.211 BA with RISP.

[stormngt]

Remember when our run-differential was low and everyone expected the Angels to tank and lose the division because they couldn't keep winning one run games like they did?

 

Yea, we won the division.......rather have that than winning the run differential.

[Inside Pitch]

Remember when our run-differential was low and everyone expected the Angels to tank and lose the division because they couldn't keep winning one run games like they did?

 

Yea, we won the division.......rather have that than winning the run differential.

No, I don't.  When exactly did that happen?  

 

2009 -- Run differential of 122, well ahead of the second place team's 44.  3rd best in the AL, 4th in all of baseball, 27-18 in 1 run games.

2008 -- Run differential of 68, well ahead of the negative 66 by Texas.  6th best. 31-21 in 1 run games

2007 -- Run differential of 97, well ahead of the negative 27 by Seattle.  4th best.  25-19 in 1 run games.

2005 -- Run differential of 118, just ahead of Oakland's 114. 2nd best. 33-26 in 1 run games 12-14 in extra innings.

2004 -- Run differential of 102, well ahead of Oakland's 51. 2nd best.  19-21 in 1 run games.

 

Oh in case you're wondering -- the 2002 Angels led all of MLB in run differential.

 

So basically the only time the won the division and weren't one of the top 4 teams in the AL in run differential was 2008, when they were still 9th best in MLB.

Edited April 29, 2014 by Inside Pitch

[Hubs]

I really believe in run differential and also think the Angels will get better in 1 run contests.

 

When a team does poorly in W-L record, but well in overall run differential, it's usually because the bullpen is blowing games. Or if the reverse happens, it's because the team has an excellent bullpen and excels at closing out games.

 

Timely hitting is not really the root of the cause, because the situations in which the team needs to come through with a big hit are determined by the pen.

 

Luck also plays a big part. 

[Hubs]

The Angels are one of two teams that have won less games than they should have by the run differential and have blown more saves than they have recorded saves.

 

Oakland has two less wins then they should (17-8 vs. 15-10) and the Angels have four less than they should. (15-9 vs. 11-13). Chicago has also less saves than they should, but they have performed to expectations.

 

Record in one run games is clearly the culprit here. We lead the league in BAA for starters, Ninth in BP BAA.

 

Starters have an W/L of 8-8. Relievers are 3-5. 

 

I'm looking for the starters W/L without accounting for inherited runners.

 

Our starters have been very, very good, and even our relievers have been better than people think. For instance, Jepsen, despite his large ERA hadn't allowed a run since game #1, when he allowed the M's to tee off in the bottom of the ninth. 

 

Honestly, if Ernesto Frieri had just performed like he has in the past, the Angels would be sitting pretty right now, likely 14-10 or 15-9.