The Official Los Angeles Angels 2023-2024 Hot Stove Offseason Thread

[totdprods]

3 minutes ago, mmc said:

Are the Brewers truly motivated to move Yelich though, especially in a package to essentially cancel out the value of their most valuable trade asset?  I haven't seen any reason to believe that.

Exactly. Two other points; 1) they still have other value to move in Devin Williams and Willy Adames so Burnes isn't their only bullet, but I do agree with you point. And also 2) they probably want/need to move Yelich far more than they'd like to make public. It's not a good contract, especially for them, and they're absolutely loaded with young outfielders. Yelich was an enormously popular addition and breath of fresh air for them, hence the contract, but from a dollars and sense perspective, it's a no-brainer that they should be trying to move him right now after the solid season he's had and the lowered expectations after cutting Woodruff and losing Counsell.

[Lazorko Saves]

2 hours ago, tdawg87 said:

I'm liking this idea until IP says it's stupid.

I'm liking this idea until Ippei says it's バカ

[Lazorko Saves]

Also, I'm liking this idea until December 2024, when we would have had one year of Burnes and he leaves to sign with the Dodgers, and we'll still have to pay Yelich $26 million a year for four more years for #4 OF level production.

To put it in perspective, we'd be paying a late-thirties Yelich $26 million a year all the way through the final 2028 election debate between Gavin Newsom and Donald Trump.  (Remember, after Trump "loses" in 2024, he's still constitutionally eligible to run yet again.)

[Second Base]

24 minutes ago, Lazorko Saves said:

Also, I'm liking this idea until December 2024, when we would have had one year of Burnes and he leaves to sign with the Dodgers, and we'll still have to pay Yelich $26 million a year for four more years for #4 OF level production.

To put it in perspective, we'd be paying a late-thirties Yelich $26 million a year all the way through the final 2028 election debate between Gavin Newsom and Donald Trump.  (Remember, after Trump "loses" in 2024, he's still constitutionally eligible to run yet again.)

[Angels 1961]

30 minutes ago, Lazorko Saves said:

Also, I'm liking this idea until December 2024, when we would have had one year of Burnes and he leaves to sign with the Dodgers, and we'll still have to pay Yelich $26 million a year for four more years for #4 OF level production.

To put it in perspective, we'd be paying a late-thirties Yelich $26 million a year all the way through the final 2028 election debate between Gavin Newsom and Donald Trump.  (Remember, after Trump "loses" in 2024, he's still constitutionally eligible to run yet again.)

I miss the good ole days with FDR

[Lazorko Saves]

33 minutes ago, Second Base said:

Yeah, I know.  My mind is diseased.  Sorry to ruin your Thursday.

[Dave Saltzer]

1 hour ago, Lazorko Saves said:

Also, I'm liking this idea until December 2024, when we would have had one year of Burnes and he leaves to sign with the Dodgers, and we'll still have to pay Yelich $26 million a year for four more years for #4 OF level production.

To put it in perspective, we'd be paying a late-thirties Yelich $26 million a year all the way through the final 2028 election debate between Gavin Newsom and Donald Trump.  (Remember, after Trump "loses" in 2024, he's still constitutionally eligible to run yet again.)

You can't think that way. If you do, you will miss out on most trades. 

 

I could easily say that by bringing Burnes here, he falls in love with the place and signs an extension in February. It's a crapshoot that in my trade proposal would cost us Rengifo and Suarez--neither of whom will move the needle that much for us.

 

Yes, other teams *could* trade more than we can. But, they might prefer Cease or Glasnow and wouldn't have to absorb a bad contract (yes, Yelich had a good year last year, but he's still overpaid by about $17-18 million). So, if they can trade for any of them, why do the deal where they have to take on payroll. And, how many of them have the space for Yelich to play?

 

With regional broadcasting dollars in flux, many teams are being very hesitant, so I'm told, about spending this year. As much as Ohtani is holding up the market, money is also holding up the market because teams are being far more cautious (again, so I'm told by people in the biz).

 

Finally, regarding Yelich, as the AW saying goes, it's not my money. Maybe Arte received bad health news (I hope not, as I hope no one does). So, he could be motivated.

 

If I'm Minasian and could swing the deal I proposed, I would convince Arte to do it. We need more stable guys who take walks, and Yelich fits that bill. Adell and Moniak can switch off in RF, but both are freeswingers. So, limiting them to essentially 1 position, makes us a better club. 

[Pancake Bear]

18 minutes ago, Dave Saltzer said:

yes, Yelich had a good year last year, but he's still overpaid by about $17-18 million).

I'm sorry, in what world is a guy who has a floor of a 2 win player right now worth only $8m? Last I checked, that's around the cost of 1 win. You could also argue he's closer to a 3 win player than a 2 win player, which would put him around $20m in value at present. Where exactly are you getting that valuation because you've entirely lost me. 

[Angelsfan1984]

11 minutes ago, Pancake Bear said:

I'm sorry, in what world is a guy who has a floor of a 2 win player right now worth only $8m? Last I checked, that's around the cost of 1 win. You could also argue he's closer to a 3 win player than a 2 win player, which would put him around $20m in value at present. Where exactly are you getting that valuation because you've entirely lost me. 

[angelsnationtalk]

4 hours ago, totdprods said:

In a vacuum, this is 100% accurate and very doable, IMO. The problem is there are quite a few other teams who can do exactly this same scenario plus offering something better than what we could to get Burnes, and that's what makes it difficult. What type of package can the Angels offer before it starts to become detrimental to the club today, to the point where it either cancels the benefit Yelich and Burnes brings, or the point where it eats away MLB depth enough that they have to pay elsewhere for low-tier FA landmines. 

I do really like Yelich despite the rough stretches he's had and the contract, and think a change of scenery/return home could suit him well. I really like the safe 70-80 walks he'd bring in. 
One curious thing I've noticed - he went opposite field dramatically more last year...wondering how eliminating the shift affected him. 

 

Agree to disagree. Teams absolutely can offer better prospects, however, I don't think a lot of them are willing to take on a contract like Yelich's. Obviously, the Brewers would retain some of the cash, but i'd be curious to see who's actually willing to take that kind of money. 

Dodgers could just offer straight prospects for Burnes and barely scratch their farm system.... Sadly. 

[Angels 1961]

2 minutes ago, angelsnationtalk said:

Agree to disagree. Teams absolutely can offer better prospects, however, I don't think a lot of them are willing to take on a contract like Yelich's. Obviously, the Brewers would retain some of the cash, but i'd be curious to see who's actually willing to take that kind of money. 

Dodgers could just offer straight prospects for Burnes and barely scratch their farm system.... Sadly. 

Depends on what Brewers really want. Yellich contract snells like Vernon Wells all over again. Save 26 on Yellich and apply next off season to get TOR started. Maybe it will be Burnes. 

[Dave Saltzer]

1 hour ago, Pancake Bear said:

I'm sorry, in what world is a guy who has a floor of a 2 win player right now worth only $8m? Last I checked, that's around the cost of 1 win. You could also argue he's closer to a 3 win player than a 2 win player, which would put him around $20m in value at present. Where exactly are you getting that valuation because you've entirely lost me. 

The same world that saw him post really subpar numbers from 2020 to 2022 and has 5 more years guaranteed on his contract. On a year by year basis, you can find an OFer with comparable numbers for about $8 to 10 million.

 

Who would you rather have (both are LH):

Player A:  .269/.340/.473

Player B: .278/..370/,447

One just signed for $9 million. The other is owed about $28 million (his contract is a bit backloaded and has a big buyout if I recall correctly). 

So yes, Yelich currently is overpaid about about $17-19 million. I'm looking at what I could pay on the open market now to get similar production.

 

Burnes, on the other hand, is underpaid by about $10 million, so next year, it would be mostly okay to do the deal I suggested, and hope that we can sign Burnes to an extension. 

[totdprods]

58 minutes ago, Dave Saltzer said:

and hope that we can sign Burnes to an extension. 

Boras as his agent makes signing an extension tricky. 

[totdprods]

58 minutes ago, Dave Saltzer said:

and hope that we can sign Burnes to an extension. 

Boras as his agent makes signing an extension tricky. 

[Angelsfan1984]

You can say that again ! 

[Pancake Bear]

1 hour ago, Dave Saltzer said:

The same world that saw him post really subpar numbers from 2020 to 2022 and has 5 more years guaranteed on his contract. On a year by year basis, you can find an OFer with comparable numbers for about $8 to 10 million.

 

Who would you rather have (both are LH):

Player A:  .269/.340/.473

Player B: .278/..370/,447

One just signed for $9 million. The other is owed about $28 million (his contract is a bit backloaded and has a big buyout if I recall correctly). 

So yes, Yelich currently is overpaid about about $17-19 million. I'm looking at what I could pay on the open market now to get similar production.

 

Burnes, on the other hand, is underpaid by about $10 million, so next year, it would be mostly okay to do the deal I suggested, and hope that we can sign Burnes to an extension. 

Where is the age, history, and the rest of his stats? Not enough info there to make a real pick between the two. 

[Pancake Bear]

2 hours ago, Dave Saltzer said:

The same world that saw him post really subpar numbers from 2020 to 2022 and has 5 more years guaranteed on his contract. On a year by year basis, you can find an OFer with comparable numbers for about $8 to 10 million.

 

Who would you rather have (both are LH):

Player A:  .269/.340/.473

Player B: .278/..370/,447

One just signed for $9 million. The other is owed about $28 million (his contract is a bit backloaded and has a big buyout if I recall correctly). 

So yes, Yelich currently is overpaid about about $17-19 million. I'm looking at what I could pay on the open market now to get similar production.

 

Burnes, on the other hand, is underpaid by about $10 million, so next year, it would be mostly okay to do the deal I suggested, and hope that we can sign Burnes to an extension. 

 

3 minutes ago, Pancake Bear said:

Where is the age, history, and the rest of his stats? Not enough info there to make a real pick between the two. 

Okay, so, after review: Heyward is 3 years older, and had an average WAR of 0 the previous two seasons. He hasn't hit as well as he did this season aside from the short sample size of 2020 since 2015. The rest of the last 8(!) years he's been a league average to below average hitter who gets by on elite defense. The Dodgers are re-signing a guy who improved under their watch. Maybe they know something, but we haven't exactly had a great history with betting on one year wonders (e.g. Cozart, Tyler Anderson, etching ). Yelich is worse defensively, but the worst hitting season of his career (2021 - back issues) was still league average.

So, if you think Heyward is really a roughly equal player to Yelich this season, you have to 1) buy his improvement, 2) value his defense (which even most experts disagree about how to value it), and 3) care more about defense than hitting. 

IMO, Heyward is getting paid as a glove first outfielder who might be able to put up league average hitting. But you have to get at least a bit lucky to get 2-3 win player for under $10m.

[Dave Saltzer]

1 hour ago, Pancake Bear said:

 

Okay, so, after review: Heyward is 3 years older, and had an average WAR of 0 the previous two seasons. He hasn't hit as well as he did this season aside from the short sample size of 2020 since 2015. The rest of the last 8(!) years he's been a league average to below average hitter who gets by on elite defense. The Dodgers are re-signing a guy who improved under their watch. Maybe they know something, but we haven't exactly had a great history with betting on one year wonders (e.g. Cozart, Tyler Anderson, etching ). Yelich is worse defensively, but the worst hitting season of his career (2021 - back issues) was still league average.

So, if you think Heyward is really a roughly equal player to Yelich this season, you have to 1) buy his improvement, 2) value his defense (which even most experts disagree about how to value it), and 3) care more about defense than hitting. 

IMO, Heyward is getting paid as a glove first outfielder who might be able to put up league average hitting. But you have to get at least a bit lucky to get 2-3 win player for under $10m.

First, thank you for taking the time to think it through and coming back with a reasoned response. I appreciate that.

Last year, Mickey Moniak put up a 2.2 WAR season (according to Baseball-Reference) for league minimum.

Take Jo Adell's numbers...he posted 0.3 WAR in 58 ABs. That's almost a 2 WAR pace like Heyward if you stretch out the ABs to the same as Heyward and Moniak.

Every year at the end of ST there are plenty of guys that a team can get out of the scrapheap that can and probably would put up 2-3 WAR (not guaranteed that they would, but have the potential, but the same is true for Heyward and Yelich) who can potentially put up 2-3 WAR for near league minimum. So. if you average out all the FAs like Heyward and all the non-tender candidates, etc. the cost for an OF who can put up those numbers on a year-by-year basis isn't really that high. 

I would certainly say that Yelich is the better bet over Heyward. But is it $19 million better? I think for around $11-12 million, we could get close to Yelich on a yearly basis. That's how I came up with my gross overpay on Yelich's contract. 

And, remember, Yelich is 31, which is when most OFers start to level out and then decrease by 34. We'd have ages 32-37, so, how do you project him aging? (I think he will hold up, which is why I'd do the deal).

How much of an overpay do you think Yelich's contract is on a yearly or total basis? And, how do you justify it?

I'm willing to take on ALL of Yelich's contract because it's only my money (and it's not my money!!!!), and we get a year of Burnes to work with him and Borass to work out an extension. Plus, it solves several of our holes for less than what we will most likely spend on Ohtani. 

Now, to be clear, I'd still go after Ohtani, and I believe Arte would go over the luxury tax to keep the unicorn because his international star power has the economic draw to jusity it. But, thre rest of my plan was to sign JD Martinez and improve the BP. All of what I'm saying can be done without breaking the luxury tax and would make us a better team. 

I don't want to argue Yelich's defense, as there are widely varying opinions on that. Let's just say it's average for LF or ignore it entirely, as he's not elite enough to justify him being a glove first defender.

[angelsnationtalk]

Jeff Passan reports that the #Angels are “among those confirmed by sources to be still in the bidding” for Shohei Ohtani, along with LAD, CHC, and TOR.

TEX, BOS, and NYM “have turned their attention to other players, sources said.”https://t.co/XbhBlAoRMW

— Beyond The Halo (@BeyondTheHalo) December 1, 2023

[Angels 1961]

Bidding will reach 600 mill

 

[angelsnationtalk]

The Angels have been much quieter this offseason than the past few. If I recall, they were making ML trades/signings before the Winter Meetings the last two years. I wonder if this has to do with their "Plan A, Plan B, Plan C" wondering the outcome of Ohtani. 

I would have thought they'd try and get those supporting deals done so Ohtani can see improvement. Time will tell.

[angelsnationtalk]

3 minutes ago, Angels 1961 said:

Bidding will reach 600 mill

 

Ohtani will get a truck load of cash, but I don't think it comes down to the highest bidder. 

[Angels 1961]

15 minutes ago, angelsnationtalk said:

Ohtani will get a truck load of cash, but I don't think it comes down to the highest bidder. 

I agree with that

[Angels 1961]

17 minutes ago, angelsnationtalk said:

The Angels have been much quieter this offseason than the past few. If I recall, they were making ML trades/signings before the Winter Meetings the last two years. I wonder if this has to do with their "Plan A, Plan B, Plan C" wondering the outcome of Ohtani. 

I would have thought they'd try and get those supporting deals done so Ohtani can see improvement. Time will tell.

Waiting on Ohtani

[Angels 1961]

I do like that Ohtani's rep has kept things quiet.