Trout and the high heat.

[Docwaukee]

There is a lot of anecdotal info and observation in regard to Mike Trout's ability to handle high fastball.   There always has been.  It's been his 'kryptonite' for years.  Yet until recently, he was still putting up hall of fame numbers.  Why now, all of a sudden, is he struggling, and does it have to do with attacking him up in the zone?  How's he performing on pitches up in the zone?  How's he performing on pitches up and out of the zone?  Is he swinging at each of them more than he used to?  

I think our eyes are telling us that they are, not very good, even worse, and yes.  But do our eyes deceive us? 

First off, I would like to add that Trout has always had a bit of a complicated setup.  Leg kick.  Hands high.  Lots of timing mechanism to get things in the right place.  But once he does, that swing is a thing of beauty.  Over the years though, we seen have have these streaks where he's working on getting that front foot down on time.  Something he's been quoted on several times.   The swing hasn't changed as of yet.  A little video from 2019 to 2021 to now shows pretty much the exact same setup and trigger points. 

I've always felt like his approach was sort of the reverse of many in that he made a point to be on breaking balls and off speed while adjusting to the fastball - if you will.  I'm not sure if that has changed. 

One thing we know for sure is that he's swinging more in general (44.7% of the time in 2023 compared to his career avg of 38.8%) and that's been happening since he returned from injury last year.  Another thing we know is that he's swinging more at balls in the zone (68.2% in 2023 vs. 56.4% career) and he's still  among the top in the league in terms of offering at pitches out of the zone - right in line with his career.  But all of the above is for all pitches.  Not just fastballs.  

So let's see if a deeper dive can yield any info in that regard.

First off, lets look at how they're attacking him with fastballs.  A comparison of 2023 to 2019 is in order I think considering 2019 was Mike's most recent MVP season.  

In 2023, they're throwing fastballs at him 49.6% of the time.  In 2019, they attacked him with fastballs 42.8% of the time.  But where?

Side by side it 2023 vs. 2019.  

Up out of the zone 2023: 35.4%
Up out of the zone 2019: 33.0%
Up and in the zone 2023: 22.8%
Up and in the zone 2019: 22.8%

So pretty damn close here.  

Is he swinging at them the same amount?  

Balls up in the zone 2023: 7.8%
Balls up in the zone 2019: 5.4%
Balls up out of the zone 2023: 1.5%
Balls up out of the zone 2019: 0.9%

Alright, we might be getting somewhere here.  

And how about the results?

Balls up in the zone wOBA 2023: 
   

Balls up in the zone wOBA 2019:

Not all that compelling...

How about out of the zone?

Up and out of zone wOBA 2023: 0.0 but that's 8 results
Up and out of zone wOBA 2019: 0.0 on 11 results.  

So he really doesn't make that many outs on fastballs up in the zone in general because he doesn't really offer at that pitch all that much.  Yes he's on pace to do so a few more times this year but by seasons end we're talking like maybe 8 more outs.  Which is still not great but really on 10-12 points of batting average.  

So he's swinging more.  But why? 

Is it because he's in more two strike counts in general?  Nope.  Almost the exact same amount.  

Are they attacking him with fastballs up more with two strikes?  9.8% of the time in 2023 vs. 8.2% in 2019.  It averages out to about 30 more results from pitches up in the zone for 2023 than in 2019.   

None of the above screams that he would be tanking to the tune of an ops 175 points below his career avg.  And a few things I'd like to leave people with as they contemplate his demise.

His avg exit velo is higher than the 2019 season.  His hard hit rate is higher than his career avg.  His chase rate is at about his career avg.  His swing and miss rate is higher than his avg but down from last year.  And for all you stat nerds, his xwOBA for contact is .490.  Still elite but off his .513 career avg.  

His xba is .269 compared to his actual of .252.  His xSLG is .508 compared to his actual of .467. 

Personally, I just think he's swinging too much.  Yes, there are some signs of decline there, but there's some bad luck too.  Why swing more when your swinging strike rate has gone up?  He used to leave certain strikes alone.  You can't tell me that pitchers have become better at commanding the ball than they did before. 

Albert Pujols called and he wants his late career approach back.  Let him have it.

[Jeff Fletcher]

3 hours ago, Docwaukee said:

You can't tell me that pitchers have become better at commanding the ball than they did before. 

In 2019 I think we were just beginning to understand the way spin can make some high fastballs harder to hit than others. Two FBs that end up in the same place are not the same if one of them has more carry, ride, whatever you want to call it. Hitting is about swinging where you expect the ball to end up, based on past experience. 
 

Maybe I’ll look it up later, but I am pretty sure that if you look up whiff rates on all high fastballs, even grouping them by similar velocities, you’ll find that there are more whiffs now than 5 years ago, because the pitchers who are throwing those balls there are the ones with the spin that makes them harder to hit. 

[Jeff Fletcher]

OK, not as much as I thought, but a little. These are FBs 93-95, in the upper 3rd of the zone and above the zone

I gotta catch a plane now but maybe I'll fiddle around with some different parameters.

 

[REDneck]

Great in depth analysis Doc!

I think Nevin should try and change the scenery in the lineup for Trout. Not drop him down, but move him up and bat him ahead of Ohtani. Either flip flop them or hell even have Trout lead off for a few games.  Nevin isn't going to drop him down in the lineup out of respect.

It's not because I think Ohtani protecting Trout in the lineup would necessarily help him, but is it possible that Ohtani hitting ahead of Trout is throwing him off a little bit? Ohtani,maybe stealing some of the thunder?

Simplistic approach and I'm grasping, but Nevin has to try something.

[Angelsjunky]

Good stuff, Doc. There's a weird silver lining in how bad he's been playing - it implies that something is off, rather than just normal decline. Meaning, if he was just declining, he wouldn't be this bad, this quickly. Even Pujols had a relatively graduated decline. It was clear and pretty steep, but from 2009-13 (age "29-33"), Albert lost between 14 and 21 wRC+ per year. Trout is currently down 52 wRC+ from last year. 

[T.G.]

@Docwaukee that was next level interesting and informative.  Thanks. 

[Jason]

1 hour ago, Angelsjunky said:

Trout is currently down 52 wRC+ from last year. 

Holy crap! I knew he was struggling but I didn’t think it was this bad 

[Blarg]

Trout's last 24 games he has hit .186/.324/.337/.661 or, in context, damn close to Jeff Mathis's career line.

All the analysis in the world doesn't change the fact he should be removed from the middle of the order until he gets his shit together. 

[Duren, Duren]

Good technical discussion/charts. 

Last week Gubi was talking and showing clips of Trout working off the pitching machine. Zeroing in on specific pitches/location. Certainly not the same as live situations, but it shows that Mike is aware and working extra hard on problem pitches.

It hasn't translated to notable improvement yet so it's still a work in progress. Not even half a season played, but the longer he stays in this form the more it may be classified as a sign of decline rather than a temporary slump that can be corrected with hard work.

Not there yet, but if he stays mired at this pace all year it will open up fair questions about what to expect from age 32 and beyond.

Many players have great production at that age and more, and most have assumed Trout would decline slowly rather than steeply based on his career consistency. But injuries, natural physical degradation and confidence are also factors. So his resilience will yet to be determined. He still may simply bust out any day and carry it through the season, but if not, then we are in unfamiliar territory starting 2024.

And don't forget that there are a lot of new pitchers in the league since 2019. And Trout doesn't have a lot of familiarity with their approach. Could also be that many are not intimidated by his reputation and challenge more. Plus the in depth scouting reports are fully aware of his weaknesses and how he is trending. Trout still hits the ball hard but also is missing many pitches he used to handle. 

So the real question is whether he can become close to his familiar self again or do expectations have to be lowered. And if the latter, by what degree? 

 

[stormngt]

2 hours ago, REDneck said:

Great in depth analysis Doc!

I think Nevin should try and change the scenery in the lineup for Trout. Not drop him down, but move him up and bat him ahead of Ohtani. Either flip flop them or hell even have Trout lead off for a few games.  Nevin isn't going to drop him down in the lineup out of respect.

It's not because I think Ohtani protecting Trout in the lineup would necessarily help him, but is it possible that Ohtani hitting ahead of Trout is throwing him off a little bit? Ohtani,maybe stealing some of the thunder?

Simplistic approach and I'm grasping, but Nevin has to try something.

How about moving him back to lead off?

[Chuck]

Promoted to the Blog. Great in-depth analysis @Docwaukee.

 

[ten ocho recon scout]

2 hours ago, Blarg said:

Trout's last 24 games he has hit .186/.324/.337/.661 or, in context, damn close to Jeff Mathis's career line.

 

But what's his C(enterfield)ERA?

[ten ocho recon scout]

I could be totally wrong here. But Trout has always looked to have a looping, uppercut/golf swing. At least to me. I'd think that would be a big part of why high fastballs give him problems.

[Swordsman78]

It's not even just "high heat" anymore.  Trout is managing to miss by swinging under heat at every level.  

That uppercut (aka launch angle) coached swing has destroyed his contact.  

I suggest he change his swing to more level and trying to hit the top half of the ball instead.  

[full circle]

14 minutes ago, ten ocho recon scout said:

I could be totally wrong here. But Trout has always looked to have a looping, uppercut/golf swing. At least to me. I'd think that would be a big part of why high fastballs give him problems.

You’re not wrong.  I’ve said every single time it’s a swing issue, not a decline or bat speed issue. 

[stormngt]

20 minutes ago, Swordsman78 said:

 

That uppercut (aka launch angle) coached swing has destroyed his contact.  

 

Exactly

[Angelsjunky]

Tony Blengino wrote an article a few years ago (I think in or after 2019) about Trout's increasing launch angle possibly meaning impending decline. Since then I've been paying close attention to it, and was happy when it went way down in 2021, though that was a very small sample size. But then it went way up again last year. This year it is down again, which is kind of weird.

2018: 18.6

2019: 22.2

2020: 23.1

2021: 12.9

2022: 24.6

2023: 19.3

 

[Swordsman78]

15 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

Tony Blengino wrote an article a few years ago (I think in or after 2019) about Trout's increasing launch angle possibly meaning impending decline. Since then I've been paying close attention to it, and was happy when it went way down in 2021, though that was a very small sample size. But then it went way up again last year. This year it is down again, which is kind of weird.

2018: 18.6

2019: 22.2

2020: 23.1

2021: 12.9

2022: 24.6

2023: 19.3

 

He could get away with it a few years ago when his reflexes could manage it.  Doesn't seem like his "elite" timing is there these days.   Needs to level the swing out even more to compensate.  Mayb'e he gets his timing back a bit aftew awhile.